Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Party competition in regional elections: a framework for analysis

Whilst scholars have long recognised that processes of decentralisation create new regional arenas where distinct patterns of party competition are likely to emerge, there has been little systematic analysis of the dynamics of such competition. This working paper thus proposes a framework for analysing party competition between regional branches of state-wide parties, and autonomist parties, in regional arenas. Firstly, the different strategies political parties may adopt in response to their perceptions of voter preferences and to the strategies pursued by their competitors are identified. Secondly, different factors that impact on parties' strategic choices, and which may constrain a party's ability to select electorally optimal strategies in a given political context, are proposed.

A Model of Party Discipline in a Congress

This paper studies party discipline in a congress within a political agency framework with retrospective voting. Party discipline serves as an incentive device to induce office- motivated congress members to perform in line with the party leadership's objective of controlling both the executive and the legislative branches of government. I show fi…rst that the same party is more likely to control both branches of government (i.e., uni…ed government) the stronger the party discipline in the congress is. Second, the leader of the governing party imposes more party discipline under uni…ed government than does the opposition leader under divided government. Moreover, the incumbents' aggregate performance increases with party discipline, so a representative voter becomes better off. JEL classi…cation: D72. Keywords: Party discipline; Political agency; Retrospective voting; Office-motivated politicians.

Calling vs receiving party pays: market penetration and the importance of the call externality

In this paper we study how the access price affects the choice of the tariff regime taken by the network operators. We show that for high values of the access price, that is taken as a parameter by the firms, networks decide to charge only the callers. Otherwise, for low values of the access charge, networks charge also the receivers. Moreover, we compare market penetration and total welfare between the two price regimes. Our model suggests that, for high values of call externality, market penetration and total welfare are larger in Receiving Party Pays regime when the access charge is close to zero.

Enteral nutrition in critically ill patients with severe hemodynamic failure after cardiopulmonary bypass.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study was designed to investigate and quantify nutritional support, and particularly enteral nutrition (EN), in critically ill patients with severe hemodynamic failure. METHODS: Prospective, descriptive study in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in a university teaching hospital: patients aged 67+/-13 yrs (mean+/-SD) admitted after cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation, staying 5 days in the ICU with acute cardiovascular failure. Severity of disease was assessed with SAPS II, and SOFA scores. Variables were energy delivery and balance, nutrition route, vasopressor doses, and infectious complications. Artificial feeding delivered according to ICU protocol. EN was considered from day 2-3. Energy target was set 25 kcal/kg/day to be reached stepwise over 5 days. RESULTS: Seventy out of 1114 consecutive patients were studied, aged 67+/-17 years, and staying 10+/-7 days in the ICU. Median SAPS II was 43. Nine patients died (13%). All patients had circulatory failure: 18 patients required intra-aortic balloon-pump support (IABP). Norepinephrine was required in 58 patients (83%). Forty patients required artificial nutrition. Energy delivery was very variable. There was no abdominal complication related to EN. As a mean, 1360+/-620 kcal/kg/day could be delivered enterally during the first 2 weeks, corresponding to 70+/-35% of energy target. Enteral nutrient delivery was negatively influenced by increasing dopamine and norepinephrine doses, but not by the use of IABP. CONCLUSION: EN is possible in the majority of patients with severe hemodynamic failure, but usually results in hypocaloric feeding. EN should be considered in patients with careful abdominal and energy monitoring.

Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine balances during continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute renal failure is a serious complication in critically ill patients and frequently requires renal replacement therapy, which alters trace element and vitamin metabolism. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to study trace element balances during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in intensive care patients. DESIGN: In a prospective randomized crossover trial, patients with acute renal failure received CRRT with either sodium bicarbonate (Bic) or sodium lactate (Lac) as a buffering agent over 2 consecutive 24-h periods. Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine were measured with highly sensitive analytic methods in plasma, replacement solutions, and effluent during 8-h periods. Balances were calculated as the difference between fluids administered and effluent losses and were compared with the recommended intakes (RI) from parenteral nutrition. RESULTS: Nineteen sessions were conducted in 11 patients aged 65 +/- 10 y. Baseline plasma concentrations of copper were normal, whereas those of selenium and zinc were below reference ranges; glutathione peroxidase was in the lower range of normal. The replacement solutions contained no detectable copper, 0.01 micromol Se/L (Bic and Lac), and 1.42 (Bic) and 0.85 (Lac) micromol Zn/L. Micronutrients were detectable in all effluents, and losses were stable in each patient; no significant differences were found between the Bic and Lac groups. The 24-h balances were negative for selenium (-0.97 micromol, or 2 times the daily RI), copper (-6.54 micromol, or 0.3 times the daily RI), and thiamine (-4.12 mg, or 1.5 times the RI) and modestly positive for zinc (20.7 micromol, or 0.2 times the RI). CONCLUSIONS: CRRT results in significant losses and negative balances of selenium, copper, and thiamine, which contribute to low plasma concentrations. Prolonged CRRT is likely to result in selenium and thiamine depletion despite supplementation at recommended amounts.

Disobeying an Illegitimate Request in a Democratic or Authoritarian System

Crimes of obedience in the form of illegal or immoral acts committed in response to orders from authority occur in many contexts. In particular, under some circumstances of threats, people can easily accept restrictions upon democratic procedures. Recent studies have underlined the role of legitimacy in understanding the authority relationship and the importance of evaluating the legitimacy of the request rather than the legitimacy of the authority in preventing the rise of authoritarianism. The purpose of this study was to verify if people respond differently when an illegitimate request is put forward by a democratic or an authoritarian authority. The results on 224 subjects confirmed that people tend to be more obedient when they perceive authorities as democratic, notwithstanding the legitimacy of their requests.

Metabolic effects of parenteral nutrition enriched with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in critically ill patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS: n-3 fatty acids are expected to downregulate the inflammatory responses, and hence may decrease insulin resistance. On the other hand, n-3 fatty acid supplementation has been reported to increase glycemia in type 2 diabetes. We therefore assessed the effect of n-3 fatty acids delivered with parenteral nutrition on glucose metabolism in surgical intensive care patients. METHODS: Twenty-four surgical intensive care patients were randomized to receive parenteral nutrition providing 1.25 times their fasting energy expenditure, with 0.25 g of either an n-3 fatty acid enriched-or a soy bean-lipid emulsion. Energy metabolism, glucose production, gluconeogenesis and hepatic de novo lipogenesis were evaluated after 4 days. RESULTS: Total energy expenditure was significantly lower in patients receiving n-3 fatty acids (0.015+/-0.001 vs. 0.019+/-0.001 kcal/kg/min with soy bean lipids (P<0.05)). Glucose oxidation, lipid oxidation, glucose production, gluconeogenesis, hepatic de novo lipogenesis, plasma glucose, insulin and glucagon concentrations did not differ (all P>0.05) in the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: n-3 fatty acids were well tolerated in this group of severely ill patients. They decreased total energy expenditure without adverse metabolic effects.