Análise multicritérios na definição de áreas prioritárias à conectividade entre fragmentos florestais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Partidos na comissão mista de planos, orçamentos públicos e fiscalização (2006-2010)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Abordagem multicriterial e indicadores ecológicos e econômicos utilizados na identificação de áreas prioritárias para a conservação da ictiofauna no estuário amazônico, Brasil

Este estudo foi dividido em três etapas: (1) caracterização da distribuição espaço temporal da ictiofauna na área de transição do ambiente limnico e marinho (capítulo 1); (b) utilização de descritores de comunidade como forma de determinar a estrutura da comunidade e o uso do habitat pela ictiofauna (capítulo 2) e (3) utilização dos descritores da comunidade estudados nos capítulos 1 e 2, como critérios na elaboração de indicadores (integrados em ambiente SIG) para definir áreas prioritárias e cenários para a conservação da ictiofauna (capítulo 3). As coletas da ictiofauna ocorreram no canal principal e nos canais de maré entre os anos de 2004 a 2011 nos períodos seco (julho a dezembro) e o chuvoso (janeiro a junho), utilizando-se, como artes de pesca, a rede de emalhe, rede de arrasto e tapagem, em três importantes zonas do estuário Amazônico: as baías de Guajará e Marajó e foz do rio Guamá. Foram capturados um total de 41.516 exemplares que corresponderam a uma ictiofauna composta de 136 espécies, 38 famílias e 12 ordens. A eficiência da amostragem foi consideravelmente boa, pois aproximadamente 90% da ictiofauna foi coletada em cada área de estudo. A distribuição espaço temporal da ictiofauna na área de transição do ambiente limnico e mesohalino, mostrou que a riqueza de espécies aumenta no sentido do rio Guamá em direção à baía do Marajó, juntamente com o aumento da salinidade. Em relação aos grupos funcionais tróficos, piscívoros (PV) e zoobentívoros (ZB) foram os dominantes em todas as áreas. Os descritores da comunidade revelaram para o canal principal, os maiores valores de abundância relativa em biomassa e número para a baía do Marajó. Em relação ao canal de maré, a abundância em biomassa foi maior para a baía do Guajará. O canal principal é utilizado para criadouro e crescimento de juvenil, com 90% dos indivíduos em estágio gonadal imaturo. Os indicadores diversidade do ambiente (DA), uso do habitat (UH), abundância relativa (CPUE), saúde do ambiente (SA) e relação com a pesca (RP), apresentaram prioridades de conservação considerada média e alta, ao longo da área de estudo. Assim como os cenários ecológicos e econômicos que, respectivamente, mostraram uma prioridade considerada média-alta e alta-muito alta de conservação da ictiofauna na porção mais ao norte da baía de Marajó e para o período seco. As metodologias aplicadas determinaram a importância ecológica da área de estudo, enfatizando a heterogeneidade entre as mesma e que portanto, não podem ser consideradas como um único ambiente. Quanto a abordagem multicriteral adotada, não há precedentes para o estuário amazônico. Esta metodologia mostrou-se eficaz ao oferecer, através dos diferentes cenários, uma gama de opções que permite ao tomador de decisões explorar a problemática da melhor forma possível ou então utilizá-la como parte integrante de um processo de tomada de decisão.

Formas não-golpistas de presença militar no estado

Conforme nossa percepção, a esperada retirada dos militares dos locais de poder e de decisão no Estado, pelos dúbios processos de transição à democracia, não apenas ficou incompleta, mas também, em muitos casos, tem retrocedido, colocando a democracia no limite de sua definição quando não aquém dela. Propomos um modelo tipológico que pretende facilitar o tes-te de algumas variáveis das relações entre civis e militare, permitindo diag­nosticar, classificar e ordenar os fenômenos desse tipo de relacionamento; assim, o esquema funcionaria como um termômetro da saúde das incipientes democracias latino-americanas.

Tipos documentais e fluxos de informação como subsídios para o processo decisório em ambientes organizacionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Controle de tensão e reativos em redes de distribuição de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Tipos documentais e fluxos de informação como subsídios para o processo decisório em ambientes organizacionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Tipos documentais e sua relação com o processo decisório de uma empresa hospitalar da região de Bauru/SP

Decisions are made constantly in organizational contexts; however, a wrong decision can bring undesirable consequences for organizations. In this sense, access to organic information becomes essential considering that decreases the uncertainties of managers in relation to decision making process. In this perspective, the identification of documental types from its production provides a consistent documental cycle, which will result in the recovery of information at the time requested by managers. Based on the above it was intended to verify what documental types recurrently used in the decision making process of a hospital company in the Bauru region, Sao Paulo State. For that, we applied the method 'Case Study' of Yin. We analyzed the information type that provided more security to the decision maker during the decision making. As a result, we elaborated a systematic documental organic types most used and most relevant to the decision-making process of the company, showing that when they are defined from the production of documents, the benefits for both the professional as archivist for the organization are significant.

Novel expert system for defining power quality compensators

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aplicação de análise multicriterial para determinação de áreas prioritárias à recomposição florestal

Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and taking into account its capability to analyze spatial data, a database of updated spatial data from the sub-basin of the Descalvado stream, Botucatu, SP, was developed to provide an evaluation and diagnosis of the area concerning land use and the degradation processes therein. Through GIS, priority areas for forest recovery were defined by Multicriteria Evaluation and using the Ordered Weighted Average method. The latter allows the decision maker to define the area to be recovered, facing limitation of resources, among one of the proposed scenarios, or do it in stages. The study showed that there are accelerated erosion processes in the headwaters of the springs of water bodies; there is also fragmentation of native vegetation, especially in hillside areas, and little presence of native vegetation in riparian areas. The application of the multicriteria analysis using the Ordered Weighted Average was important as it systematized and discriminated scenarios of priority for forest recovery.

RP97-362 File It Easy, Find It Fast: A Home Filing System

A home filing system makes important papers readily available when needed. If managed properly, the filing system can get older papers out of the way, making needed records more accessible. A well-organized filing system for your household can pay big dividends when it comes time to find an important paper you need NOW. There is no one best filing system for everyone; what works for you could be a disaster for someone else. Once set up, a filing system helps you to be a more effective and efficient financial manager and decision maker.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

The Structure of Financial Supervision: Consolidation or Fragmentation for Financial Regulators?

This research was designed to answer the question of which direction the restructuring of financial regulators should take – consolidation or fragmentation. This research began by examining the need for financial regulation and its related costs. It then continued to describe what types of regulatory structures exist in the world; surveying the regulatory structures in 15 jurisdictions, comparing them and discussing their strengths and weaknesses. This research analyzed the possible regulatory structures using three methodological tools: Game-Theory, Institutional-Design, and Network-Effects. The incentives for regulatory action were examined in Chapter Four using game theory concepts. This chapter predicted how two regulators with overlapping supervisory mandates will behave in two different states of the world (where they can stand to benefit from regulating and where they stand to lose). The insights derived from the games described in this chapter were then used to analyze the different supervisory models that exist in the world. The problem of information-flow was discussed in Chapter Five using tools from institutional design. The idea is based on the need for the right kind of information to reach the hands of the decision maker in the shortest time possible in order to predict, mitigate or stop a financial crisis from occurring. Network effects and congestion in the context of financial regulation were discussed in Chapter Six which applied the literature referring to network effects in general in an attempt to conclude whether consolidating financial regulatory standards on a global level might also yield other positive network effects. Returning to the main research question, this research concluded that in general the fragmented model should be preferable to the consolidated model in most cases as it allows for greater diversity and information-flow. However, in cases in which close cooperation between two authorities is essential, the consolidated model should be used.

Referral patterns in optometry: Use of secondary consultation/comanagement centers by optometrists

Privately practicing health care practitioners, such as physicians, dentists, and optometrists are facing increasing competitive pressures as the health care industry undergoes significant structural change. The eye care field has been affected by this change and one result has been the establishment of consultation/comanagement centers for optometrists. These centers, staffed primarily by an ophthalmologist, serve community optometrists as a secondary ophthalmic care center and are altering the traditional optometric - ophthalmologic referral system.^ This study was designed to examine the response of optometrists to the formation of a center by measuring the amount and type of optometric participation in a center and identifying factors affecting participation. A predictive model was specified to determine the probability of center use by practitioners.^ The results showed that the establishment of a center in a community did not result in its usage by all practitioners though there were specific practice (organizational) and practitioners (decision-maker) variables that could be used to predict use. Three practice variables and four practitioner variables were found to be important in influencing center use. ^

The feasibility of self-report advance directives among elderly patients with cognitive impairment

The central objective of this dissertation was to determine the feasibility of self-completed advance directives (AD) in older persons suffering from mild and moderate stages of dementia. This was accomplished by identifying differences in ability to complete AD among elderly subjects with increasing degrees of dementia and cognitive incompetence. Secondary objectives were to describe and compare advance directives completed by elders and identified proxy decision makers. Secondary objectives were accomplished by measuring the agreement between advance directives completed by proxy and elder, and comparing that agreement across groups defined by the elder's cognitive status. This cross-sectional study employed a structured interview to elicit AD, followed by a similar interview with a proxy decision maker identified by the elder. A stratified sampling scheme recruited elders with normal cognition, mild, and moderate forms of dementia using the Mini Mental-State Exam (MMSE). The Hopkins Competency Assessment Test (HCAT) was used for evaluation of competency to make medical decisions. Analysis was conducted on "between group" (non-demented $\leftrightarrow$ mild dementia $\leftrightarrow$ moderate dementia, and competent $\leftrightarrow$ incompetent) and "within group" (elder $\leftrightarrow$ family member) variation.^ The 118 elderly subjects interviewed were generally male, Caucasian, and of low socioeconomic status. Mean age was 77. Overall, elders preferred a "trial of therapy" regarding AD rather than to "always receive the therapy". No intervention was refused outright more often than it was accepted. A test-retest of elders' AD revealed stable responses. Eleven logic checks measured appropriateness of AD responses independent of preference. No difference was found in logic error rates between elders grouped by MMSE or HCAT. Agreement between proxy and elder responses showed significant dissimilarity, indicating that proxies were not making the same medical decisions as the elders.^ Conclusions based on these data are: (1) Self reporting AD is feasible among elders showing signs of cognitive impairment and they should be given all opportunities to complete advance directives, (2) variation in preferences for advance directives in cognitively impaired elders should not be assumed to be the effects of their impairment alone, (3) proxies do not appear to forego life-prolonging interventions in the face of increasing impairment in their ward, however, their advance directives choices are frequently not those of the elder they represent. ^