A new sward management strategy to mitigate the methane (CH4) emissions by grazing ruminants.

2016

Sequential Monte Carlo computation of the score and observed information matrix in state-space models with application to parameter estimation

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are popular computational tools for Bayesian inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. For this class of models, we propose SMC algorithms to compute the score vector and observed information matrix recursively in time. We propose two different SMC implementations, one with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and the other with complexity $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ where $N$ is the number of importance sampling draws. Although cheaper, the performance of the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method degrades quickly in time as it inherently relies on the SMC approximation of a sequence of probability distributions whose dimension is increasing linearly with time. In particular, even under strong \textit{mixing} assumptions, the variance of the estimates computed with the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method increases at least quadratically in time. The $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ is a non-standard SMC implementation that does not suffer from this rapid degrade. We then show how both methods can be used to perform batch and recursive parameter estimation.

The State, Compartmentalization and the Turn to Local Community: A Critique of the Political Thought of Alasdair MacIntyre

Alasdair MacIntyre condemns modern politics, specifically liberalism and the institutions of the liberal state, as irredeemably fallen. His core argument is that the liberal state encourages a disempowering ‘compartmentalization’ of people’s everyday roles and activities that undermines the intersubjective conditions of human flourishing. MacIntyre’s alternative is an Aristotelian politics centred on the notion of “practice.” Defined by justice and solidarity, this politics can only be realized, he claims, within local communities which oppose and resist the dictates of the administrative state and capitalist market. Here it is argued that MacIntyre’s notion of “practice” represents a compelling ethical-political ideal. However, the belief that this ideal is best realized within local communities is rejected. In privileging local community, MacIntyre relies on a reductive view of modern states and overlooks the institutional conditions of a just polity. Against this, it is argued that a politics of human flourishing cannot succeed without an emancipatory transformation of large-scale, trans-communal institutions, in particular the state.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

Nonlinear state estimation and control applied to a manipulator robotic including drive motor

A robotic control design considering all the inherent nonlinearities of the robot engine configuration is developed. The interactions between the robot and joint motor drive mechanism are considered. The proposed control combines two strategies, one feedforward control in order to maintain the system in the desired coordinate, and feedback control system to take the system into a desired coordinate. The feedback control is obtained using State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE). For link positioning two cases are considered. Case 1: For control positioning, it is only used motor voltage; Case 2: For control positioning, it is used both motor voltage and torque between the links. Simulation results, including parametric uncertainties in control shows the feasibility of the proposed control for the considered system.

Evolution in access to fluoridated water in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from the 1950s to the early 21st century

Access to fluoridated water is a known protective factor against dental caries. In 1974, fluoridation of the public water supply became mandatory by law in Brazil, resulting in improved coverage, especially in more developed regions of the country. Coverage increased across the country as a priority under the national oral health policy. This article systematizes information on the implementation and expansion of fluoridation in Sao Paulo State from 1956 to 2009, using secondary data from technical reports, official documents, and the Information System for Surveillance of Water Quality for Human Consumption (SISAGUA). In 2009, fluoridation covered 546 of 645 counties in Sao Paulo State (84.7%), reaching 85.1% of the total population and 93.5% of the population with access to the public water supply. The results indicate that fluoridation has been consolidated as part of State health policy. However, the challenge remains to implement and maintain fluoridation in 99 counties, benefiting 6.2 million inhabitants that are still excluded from this service.

The treatment of women and children in the Congo State : 1895 - 1904 ; an appeal to the women of the British Empire, and of the United States of America

by E. D. Morel