Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Number Processing and Calculation in Brazilian Children Aged 7-12 Years

Numerical cognition is based on two components - number processing and calculation. Its development is influenced by biological, cognitive, educational, and cultural factors. The objectives of the present study were to: i) assess number processing and calculation in Brazilian children aged 7-12 years from public schools using the Zareki-R (Battery of neuropsychological tests for number processing and calculation in children, Revised; von Aster & Dellatolas, 2006) in order to obtain normative data for Portuguese speakers; ii) identify how environment, age, and gender influences the development of these mathematical skills; iii) investigate the construct validity of the Zareki-R by the contrast with the Arithmetic subtest of WISC-III. The sample included 172 children, both genders, divided in two groups: urban (N= 119) and rural (N= 53) assessed by the Zareki-R. Rural children presented lower scores in one aspect of number processing; children aged 7-8 years demonstrated an inferior global score than older; boys presented a superior performance in both number processing and calculation. Construct validity of Zareki-R was demonstrated by high to moderate correlations with Arithmetic subtest of WISC-III. The Zareki-R therefore is a suitable instrument to assess the development of mathematical skills, which is influenced by factors such as environment, age, and gender.

Modeling and analysis of artificial neural networks applied in operations research

Artificial neural networks are dynamic systems consisting of highly interconnected and parallel nonlinear processing elements. Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of these computational elements. Neural networks with feedback connections provide a computing model capable of solving a rich class of optimization problems. In this paper, a modified Hopfield network is developed for solving problems related to operations research. The internal parameters of the network are obtained using the valid-subspace technique. Simulated examples are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.

Fractal analysis of eroded surfaces by digital image processing

Jet impingement erosion test rig has been used to erode titanium alloy specimens (Ti-4Al-4V). Eroded surface profiles have been obtained by vertical sectioning method for light microscopy observation. Mixed fractals have been measured from profile images by a digital image processing and analysis technique. The use of this technique allows glimpsing a quantitative correlation among material properties, fractal surface topography and erosion phenomena. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Single-embryo transfer reduces clinical pregnancy rates and live births in fresh IVF and Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) cycles: a meta-analysis

Background: It has become an accepted procedure to transfer more than one embryo to the patient to achieve acceptable ongoing pregnancy rates. However, transfers of more than a single embryo increase the probability of establishing a multiple gestation. Single-embryo transfer can minimize twin pregnancies but may also lower live birth rates. This meta-analysis aimed to compare current data on single-embryo versus double-embryo transfer in fresh IVF/ICSI cycles with respect to implantation, ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates.Methods: Search strategies included on-line surveys of databases from 1995 to 2008. Data management and analysis were conducted using the Stats Direct statistical software. The fixed-effect model was used for odds ratio (OR). Fixed-effect effectiveness was evaluated by the Mantel Haenszel method. Seven trials fulfilled the inclusion criteria.Results: When pooling results under the fixed-effect model, the implantation rate was not significantly different between double-embryo transfer (34.5%) and single-embryo transfer group (34.7%) (P = 0.96; OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.78, 1.25). on the other hand, double-embryo transfer produced a statistically significantly higher ongoing clinical pregnancy rate (44.5%) than single-embryo transfer (28.3%) (P < 0.0001; OR: 2.06, 95% CI = 1.64,2.60). At the same time, pooling results presented a significantly higher live birth rate when double-embryo transfer (42.5%) (P < 0.001; OR: 1.87, 95% CI = 1.44,2.42) was compared with single-embryo transfer (28.4%).Conclusion: Meta-analysis with 95% confidence showed that, despite similar implantation rates, fresh double-embryo transfer had a 1.64 to 2.60 times greater ongoing pregnancy rate and 1.44 to 2.42 times greater live birth rate than single-embryo transfer in a population suitable for ART treatment.

Conceptual model for adaptable and extensible visual data exploration

Interactive visual representations complement traditional statistical and machine learning techniques for data analysis, allowing users to play a more active role in a knowledge discovery process and making the whole process more understandable. Though visual representations are applicable to several stages of the knowledge discovery process, a common use of visualization is in the initial stages to explore and organize a sometimes unknown and complex data set. In this context, the integrated and coordinated - that is, user actions should be capable of affecting multiple visualizations when desired - use of multiple graphical representations allows data to be observed from several perspectives and offers richer information than isolated representations. In this paper we propose an underlying model for an extensible and adaptable environment that allows independently developed visualization components to be gradually integrated into a user configured knowledge discovery application. Because a major requirement when using multiple visual techniques is the ability to link amongst them, so that user actions executed on a representation propagate to others if desired, the model also allows runtime configuration of coordinated user actions over different visual representations. We illustrate how this environment is being used to assist data exploration and organization in a climate classification problem.

Pitch detection algorithms based on zero-cross rate and autocorrelation function for musical notes

This paper discusses two pitch detection algorithms (PDA) for simple audio signals which are based on zero-cross rate (ZCR) and autocorrelation function (ACF). As it is well known, pitch detection methods based on ZCR and ACF are widely used in signal processing. This work shows some features and problems in using these methods, as well as some improvements developed to increase their performance. © 2008 IEEE.

Millennium development goals. 2006 report: a look at gender equality and empowerment of women in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The impact of adding SBAS data on GPS data processing in southeast of Brazil: Preliminary result

Nowadays, L1 SBAS signals can be used in a combined GPS+SBAS data processing. However, such situation restricts the studies over short baselines. Besides of increasing the satellite availability, SBAS satellites orbit configuration is different from that of GPS. In order to analyze how these characteristics can impact GPS positioning in the southeast area of Brazil, experiments involving GPS-only and combined GPS+SBAS data were performed. Solutions using single point and relative positioning were computed to show the impact over satellite geometry, positioning accuracy and short baseline ambiguity resolution. Results showed that the inclusion of SBAS satellites can improve the accuracy of positioning. Nevertheless, the bad quality of the data broadcasted by these satellites limits their usage. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012.

Processing and characterization of extruded breakfast meal formulated with broken rice and bean flour

O objetivo deste trabalho foi elaborar um produto matinal extrusado de quirera de arroz e bandinha de feijão, além de verificar a influência do processo de extrusão nas suas características físico-químicas, nutricionais, tecnológicas e sensoriais. O produto final apresentou teor considerável de proteínas (9,9 g.100 g^-1), podendo ser considerado uma boa fonte desse nutriente para crianças e adolescentes. Para a fibra alimentar, observou-se teor de 3,71 g.100 g^-1 do produto pronto para o consumo. Dessa forma, o floco matinal de arroz e feijão pode receber a alegação de alimento fonte de fibras, de acordo com a legislação brasileira. Com relação às propriedades tecnológicas, o extrusado estudado apresentou índice de expansão de 8,89 e densidade aparente de 0,25 g.cm^-3. Quanto à análise sensorial, o floco matinal avaliado obteve notas médias de aceitação, situadas no intervalo de 6,8 a 7,7, que corresponde às categorias "gostei ligeiramente" e "gostei muito". Para a intenção de compra, 79% dos provadores opinaram que certamente ou possivelmente comprariam o produto. O emprego de quirera de arroz e bandinha de feijão é uma interessante alternativa para a elaboração de produto matinal extrusado, apresentando boas qualidades de ordem nutricional, tecnológica e sensorial.

DNA for nano-bio scale computation of chemical formalisms using Higher Order Logic (HOL) and analysis using an interdisciplinary approach

Bio-molecular computing, 'computations performed by bio-molecules', is already challenging traditional approaches to computation both theoretically and technologically. Often placed within the wider context of ´bio-inspired' or 'natural' or even 'unconventional' computing, the study of natural and artificial molecular computations is adding to our understanding of biology, physical sciences and computer science well beyond the framework of existing design and implementation paradigms. In this introduction, We wish to outline the current scope of the field and assemble some basic arguments that, bio-molecular computation is of central importance to computer science, physical sciences and biology using HOL - Higher Order Logic. HOL is used as the computational tool in our R&D work. DNA was analyzed as a chemical computing engine, in our effort to develop novel formalisms to understand the molecular scale bio-chemical computing behavior using HOL. In our view, our focus is one of the pioneering efforts in this promising domain of nano-bio scale chemical information processing dynamics.

Efficacy of sperm motility after processing and incubation to predict pregnancy after intrauterine insemination in normospermic individuals

Background: Intrauterine insemination (IUI) is widely used to treat infertility, and its adequate indication is important to obtain good pregnancy rates. To assess which couples could benefit from IUI, this study aimed to evaluate whether sperm motility using a discontinuous gradient of different densities and incubation in CO2 in normospermic individuals is able to predict pregnancy.Methods: A total of 175 couples underwent 175 IUI cycles. The inclusion criteria for women were as follows: 35 years old or younger (age range: from 27 to 35 years) with normal fallopian tubes; endometriosis grades I-II; unexplained infertility; nonhyperandrogenic ovulatory dysfunction. Men with normal seminal parameters were also included. All patients underwent ovarian stimulation with clomiphene citrate and human hMG or r-FSH. When one or (at most) three follicles measuring 18 to 20 mm were observed, hCG (5000 UI) or r-hCG (250 mcg) was administered and IUI performed 36-40 h after hCG. Sperm processing was performed using a discontinuous concentration gradient. A 20 microliters aliquot was incubated for 24 h at 37 degrees C in 5% CO2 following a total progressive motility analysis. The Mann-Whitney and Chi-square tests, as well as a ROC curve were used to determine the cutoff value for motility.Results: Of the 175 couples, 52 (in 52 IUI cycles) achieved clinical pregnancies (CP rate per cycle: 29.7%). The analysis of age, duration and causes of infertility did not indicate any statistical significance between pregnancy and no pregnancy groups, similar to the results for total sperm count and morphology analyses, excluding progressive motility (p < 0.0001). The comparison of progressive motility after processing and 24 h after incubation between these two groups indicated that progressive motility 24 h after incubation was higher in the pregnancy group. The analysis of the progressive motility of the pregnancy group after processing and 24 h after incubation has not shown any motility difference at 24 h after incubation; additionally, in couples who did not obtain pregnancy, there was a statistically significant decrease in progressive motility 24 h after incubation (p < 0.0001). The ROC curve analysis generated a cutoff value of 56.5% for progressive motility at 24 h after incubation and this cutoff value produced 96.1% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, 84.7% positive predictive value and 98.3% negative predictive value.Conclusions: We concluded that the sperm motility of normospermic individuals 24 h after incubation at 37 degrees C in 5% CO2, with a cutoff value of 56.5%, is predictive of IUI success.

Effects of food processing and fibre content on the digestibility, energy intake and biochemical parameters of Blue-and-gold macaws (Ara ararauna L. - Aves, Psittacidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparison of Polar(®) RS800G3(™) heart rate monitor with Polar(®) S810i(™) and electrocardiogram to obtain the series of RR intervals and analysis of heart rate variability at rest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The genome sequence of the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa: The Xylella fastidiosa consortium of the organization for nucleotide sequencing and analysis, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Xylella fastidiosa is a fastidious, xylem-limited bacterium that causes a range of economically important plant diseases. Here we report the complete genome sequence of X. fastidiosa clone 9a5c, which causes citrus variegated chlorosis - a serious disease of orange trees. The genome comprises a 52.7% GC-rich 2,679,305-base-pair (bp) circular chromosome and 'two plasmids of 51,158 bp and 1,285 bp. We can assign putative functions to47% of the 2,904 predicted coding regions. Efficient metabolic functions are predicted, with sugars as the principal energy and carbon source, supporting existence in the nutrient-poor xylem sap. The mechanisms associated with pathogenicity and virulence involve toxins, antibiotics and ion sequestration systems, as well as bacterium-bacterium and bacterium-host interactions mediated by a range of proteins. Orthologues of some of these proteins have only been identified in animal and human pathogens; their presence in X. fastidiosa indicates that the molecular basis for bacterial pathogenicity is both conserved and independent of host. At least 83 genes are bacteriophage-derived and include virulence-associated genes from other bacteria, providing direct evidence of phage-mediated horizontal gene transfer.