Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

The role of community college faculty in teaching and learning for sustainable development

The purpose of this study was to explore the attitudes, beliefs, and practices of community college professors regarding education for sustainable development (ESD). In-depth interviews with 14 professors from different disciplines were conducted. The participants taught at Miami Dade College, Florida, a Talloires Declaration signatory since 2006, and all had attended Green Studies professional development workshops. Written documents such as assignments and samples of student work were used for triangulation. The annual report of the college’s Earth Ethics Institute and its Web site served as additional sources. The interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for common themes. The Talloires Declaration’s 10-point action plan and the key characteristics of ESD (UN DESD, 2006) served as the conceptual framework. The study found that the professors considered ESD an essential issue. The majority discussed the economic and social aspects of ESD; however, the environmental aspect was mentioned most frequently. The professors’ conceptualizations of ESD were influenced by their experiences and evidenced by the metaphors they used. Although their engagement with ESD differed, the professors expressed optimism toward ESD related teaching and learning. They regarded ESD as compatible with their subjects, and most had already been infusing sustainability into their courses or planned to do so. Additionally, the participants’ teaching practices reflected many of the characteristics of ESD. Even though the professors considered ESD challenging, they believed that they could make contributions to the college’s effort. The metaphor of “Planting a Seed” was frequently used to describe this holistic approach. The study also found that many professors regarded interpersonal relationships and communication significant factors for the advancement of ESD. The participants described several challenges to integrating ESD at their college. These related to time constraints, density of curriculum, institutional size and fragmentation, dearth of administrative support and incentives, students’ lack of academic preparation and sustainability awareness, students’ inability to focus on ESD because of personal, social, or economic circumstances, and professors’ frustration about a divisive atmosphere as a result of their engagement with sustainability. Despite these obstacles, the professors believed that ESD could be successfully woven into the community college experience.

An improved framework for dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou's model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou's model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

Understanding the relationship between the Talented Twenty program and college aspirations for high ranking students at a high priority school

Percentage plans such as the Talented Twenty program purport to assist and motivate high ranking students to attend college and grant access to higher education. This type of plan is particularly important to students enrolled in high priority schools who might not view themselves as potential college students. This study examined the relationship between Florida’s Talented Twenty program that begins intervention with juniors and the college aspirations for high ranking students at a high priority school. Numerous studies have established that increased levels of education lead to higher salaries, career mobility, and an increased quality of life (e.g., Bowen, 1997; Leslie & Brinkman 1988; Pascarella & Terenzini, 1991, Swail, 2000). Given the importance of students’ decisions regarding whether or not they will attend college, understanding how and when they make decisions about attending college is important for them, their parents, advisors, and educational administrators. This research examined students’ perceptions and insights via interviews. The overarching research question was: How do high ranking high school students attending a high priority school in a south Florida district perceive their college opportunities? Sixteen high ranking students, grades nine – 12 from a high priority school in Miami-Dade County participated in the study. Participants were identified by a school counselor and individual semi structured interviews were conducted at the school. Utilizing a student development theoretical framework developed by Hossler and Gallagher (1987) that centered on students’ predisposition, search strategies and choices, data were organized and emergent themes analyzed. The analysis of the data revealed that in alignment with the framework (a) parents were the strongest influence in the development of these students’ college aspirations, (b) these students formalized their higher education plans between eighth and 10th grade, (c) these students actively engaged in academic searches and learning opportunities that increased their chances to be admitted into college, and (d) there was no relationship between knowledge regarding the Talented Twenty program and their educational decisions. This study’s findings suggest that interventions and programs intended to influence the educational aspirations of students are more likely to succeed if they take place by the eighth or ninth grade.

Development of an instrument to measure high school students' global awareness and attitudes: Looking through the lens of social sciences

The purpose of this study was to develop an instrument to measure high school students’ perspectives on global awareness and attitudes toward social issues. The research questions that guided this study were: (a) Can acceptable validity and reliability estimates be established for an instrument developed to measure high schools students' global awareness? (b) Can acceptable validity and reliability estimates be established for an instrument developed to measure high schools students' attitudes towards global social issues? (c) What is the relationship between high school students’ GPA, race/ethnicity, gender, socio-economic status, parents’ education, getting the news, reading and listening habits, the number of classes taken in the social sciences, whether they speak a second language, and have experienced living in or visiting other countries, and their perception of global awareness and attitudes toward global social issues. ^ An ex post facto research design was used and the data were collected using a 4-part Likert-type survey. It was administered to 14 schools in the Miami-Dade County, Florida area to 704 students. A factor analysis with an orthogonal varimax rotation was vii used to select the factors that best represented the three constructs – global education, global citizenship, and global workforce. This was done to establish construct validity. Cronbach’s alpha was used to determine the reliability of the instrument. Descriptive statistics and a hierarchical multiple regression were used for the demographics to establish their relationship, if any, to the findings. ^ Key findings of the study were that reliable and valid estimates can be developed for the instrument. The multiple regression analysis for model 1 and 2 accounted for a variance of 3% and 5% for self-perceptions of global awareness (factor 1). The regression model also accounted for a 5% and 13% variance in the two models for attitudes toward global social issues (factor 2). The demographics that were statistically significant were: ethnicity, gender, SES, parents’ education, listening to music, getting the news, speaking a second language, GPA, classes taken in the social sciences, and visiting other countries. An important finding for the study was those attending public schools (as opposed to private schools) had more positive attitudes towards global social issues (factor 2) The statistics indicated that these students had taken history, economics, and social studies – a curriculum infused with global perspectives.^

A developmental intervention science outreach research approach to promoting positive youth development

Recent intervention efforts in promoting positive identity in troubled adolescents have begun to draw on the potential for an integration of the self-construction and self-discovery perspectives in conceptualizing identity processes, as well as the integration of quantitative and qualitative data analytic strategies. This study reports an investigation of the Changing Lives Program (CLP), using an Outcome Mediation (OM) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating targets of intervention, while theoretically including a Self-Transformative Model of Identity Development (STM), a proposed integration of self-discovery and self-construction identity processes. This study also used a Relational Data Analysis (RDA) integration of quantitative and qualitative analysis strategies and a structural equation modeling approach (SEM), to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OM/STM model. The CLP is a community supported positive youth development intervention, targeting multi-problem youth in alternative high schools in the Miami Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS). The 259 participants for this study were drawn from the CLP’s archival data file. The model evaluated in this study utilized three indices of core identity processes (1) personal expressiveness, (2) identity conflict resolution, and (3) informational identity style that were conceptualized as mediators of the effects of participation in the CLP on change in two qualitative outcome indices of participants’ sense of self and identity. Findings indicated the model fit the data (χ2 (10) = 3.638, p = .96; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .299). The pattern of findings supported the utilization of the STM in conceptualizing identity processes and provided support for the OM design. The findings also suggested the need for methods capable of detecting and rendering unique sample specific free response data to increase the likelihood of identifying emergent core developmental research concepts and constructs in studies of intervention/developmental change over time in ways not possible using fixed response methods alone.

A study on uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks, knowledge sharing, and task performance

Each disaster presents itself with a unique set of characteristics that are hard to determine a priori. Thus disaster management tasks are inherently uncertain, requiring knowledge sharing and quick decision making that involves coordination across different levels and collaborators. While there has been an increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners in utilizing knowledge management to improve disaster management, little research has been reported about how to assess the dynamic nature of disaster management tasks, and what kinds of knowledge sharing are appropriate for different dimensions of task uncertainty characteristics. ^ Using combinations of qualitative and quantitative methods, this research study developed the dimensions and their corresponding measures of the uncertain dynamic characteristics of disaster management tasks and tested the relationships between the various dimensions of uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks and task performance through the moderating and mediating effects of knowledge sharing. ^ Furthermore, this research work conceptualized and assessed task uncertainty along three dimensions: novelty, unanalyzability, and significance; knowledge sharing along two dimensions: knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms; and task performance along two dimensions: task effectiveness and task efficiency. Analysis results of survey data collected from Miami-Dade County emergency managers suggested that knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms moderate and mediate uncertain dynamic disaster management task and task performance. Implications for research and practice as well directions for future research are discussed.^

Integrated assessment of water conservation practices for sustainable management strategies

Miami-Dade County implemented a series of water conservation programs, which included rebate/exchange incentives to encourage the use of high efficiency aerators (AR), showerheads (SH), toilets (HET) and clothes washers (HEW), to respond to the environmental sustainability issue in urban areas. This study first used panel data analysis of water consumption to evaluate the performance and actual water savings of individual programs. Integrated water demand model has also been developed for incorporating property’s physical characteristics into the water consumption profiles. Life cycle assessment (with emphasis on end-use stage in water system) of water intense appliances was conducted to determine the environmental impacts brought by each practice. Approximately 6 to 10 % of water has been saved in the first and second year of implementation of high efficiency appliances, and with continuing savings in the third and fourth years. Water savings (gallons per household per day) for water efficiency appliances were observed at 28 (11.1%) for SH, 34.7 (13.3%) for HET, and 39.7 (14.5%) for HEW. Furthermore, the estimated contributions of high efficiency appliances for reducing water demand in the integrated water demand model were between 5 and 19% (highest in the AR program). Results indicated that adoption of more than one type of water efficiency appliance could significantly reduce residential water demand. For the sustainable water management strategies, the appropriate water conservation rate was projected to be 1 to 2 million gallons per day (MGD) through 2030. With 2 MGD of water savings, the estimated per capita water use (GPCD) could be reduced from approximately 140 to 122 GPCD. Additional efforts are needed to reduce the water demand to US EPA’s “Water Sense” conservation levels of 70 GPCD by 2030. Life cycle assessment results showed that environmental impacts (water and energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions) from end-use and demand phases are most significant within the water system, particularly due to water heating (73% for clothes washer and 93% for showerhead). Estimations of optimal lifespan for appliances (8 to 21 years) implied that earlier replacement with efficiency models is encouraged in order to minimize the environmental impacts brought by current practice.

The relationship between staff perceptions of principal leadership and school performance

The climate of a school can be defined as the set of internal characteristics that distinguishes one school from another and influences the behavior of its members (Hoy & Hannum, 1997). Schools with a positive climate have been shown to positively impact students (Hoy, 1972). A principal’s leadership style influences the climate that, in turn, impacts student performance. ^ In this work, the researcher investigated Miami-Dade County Public Schools in order to determine if there was a relationship between instructional staff members’ perceptions of their school’s principals, a derivative of the district’s school climate studies, and their schools’ grades. ^ Eight School Climate Survey items were inter-correlated. The smallest intercorrelation was .83, which is still a large intercorrelation, and the largest intercorrelation was .96. Pearson’s correlation analysis (Healey, 2004) was run to determine the relationship between schools’ earned points and averaged survey responses. Survey items 8, 9, 12 and 13 had weak (less than .30) positive correlations to schools’ earned points. Survey items 7, 10, 11 and 14 had moderate (above .30) positive correlations to schools’ earned points. ^ The researcher created a composite variable (Pallant, 2007) from all the School Climate Survey responses. This composite variable, titled Principal Leadership Score, allowed the researcher to determine that approximately 9% of the variance in the points earned by schools in 2009 can be accounted for by how teachers in this study perceived the leadership of their principals. ^ This study’s findings of a moderate positive correlation between teachers’ perceptions of principal leadership and school performance supports earlier research linking school climate and school performance. Due to the fact that the leadership of the principal affects, either positively or negatively, the learning and working environment of students and teachers, it is recommended that principals use the eight School Climate Survey items examined within this study as guides (Pepper & Thomas, 2002). Through focusing on these survey items, principals may be propelled to self-identify their leadership strengths as well as leadership weaknesses.^

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Assessment of the occurrence and potential effects of pharmaceuticals and personal care products in South Florida waters and sediments

A LLE-GC-MS method was developed to detect PPCPs in surface water samples from Big Cypress National Park, Everglades National Park and Biscayne National Park in South Florida. The most frequently found PPCPs were caffeine, DEET and triclosan with detected maximum concentration of 169 ng/L, 27.9 ng/L and 10.9 ng/L, respectively. The detection frequencies of hormones were less than PPCPs. Detected maximal concentrations of estrone, 17β-estradiol, coprostan-3-ol, coprostane and coprostan-3-one were 5.98 ng/L, 3.34 ng/L, 16.5 ng/L, 13.5 ng/L and 6.79 ng/L, respectively. An ASE-SPE-GC-MS method was developed and applied to the analysis of the sediment and soil area where reclaimed water was used for irrigation. Most analytes were below detection limits, even though some of analytes were detected in the reclaimed water at relatively high concentrations corroborating the fact that PPCPs do not significantly partition to mineral phases. An online SPE-HPLC-APPI-MS/MS method and an online SPE-HPLC-HESI-MS/MS method were developed to analyze reclaimed water and drinking water samples. In the reclaimed water study, reclaimed water samples were collected from the sprinkler for a year-long period at Florida International University Biscayne Bay Campus, where reclaimed water was reused for irrigation. Analysis results showed that several analytes were continuously detected in all reclaimed water samples. Coprostanol, bisphenol A and DEET's maximum concentration exceeded 10 μg/L (ppb). The four most frequently detected compounds were diphenhydramine (100%), DEET (98%), atenolol (98%) and carbamazepine (96%). In the study of drinking water, 54 tap water samples were collected from the Miami-Dade area. The maximum concentrations of salicylic acid, ibuprofen and DEET were 521 ng/L, 301 ng/L and 290 ng/L, respectively. The three most frequently detected compounds were DEET (93%), carbamazepine (43%) and salicylic acid (37%), respectively. Because the source of drinking water in Miami-Dade County is the relatively pristine Biscayne aquifer, these findings suggest the presence of wastewater intrusions into the delivery system or the onset of direct influence of surface waters into the shallow aquifer.

Geochemical determination of the fate and transport of injected fresh wastewater to a deep saline aquifer

Deep well injection into non-potable saline aquifers of treated domestic wastewater has been used in Florida for decades as a safe and effective alternative to ocean outfall disposal. The objectives of this study were to determine the fate and transport of injected wastewater at two deep well injection sites in Miami Dade County, Florida, USA. Detection of ammonium in the Middle Confining units of the Floridan aquifer above the injection zone at both sites has been interpreted as evidence of upward migration of injected wastewater, posing a risk to underground sources of drinking water. Historical water quality data, including ammonia, chloride, temperature, and pH from existing monitoring wells at both sites from 1983 to 2008, major ions collected monthly from 2006 and 2008, and a synoptic sampling event for stable isotopes, tritium, and dissolved gases in 2008, were used to determine the source of ammonium in groundwater and possible migration pathways. Geochemical modeling was used to determine possible effects of injected wastewater on native water and aquifer matrix geochemistry. Injected wastewater was determined to be the source of elevated ammonium concentrations above ambient water levels, based on the results of major ion concentrations, tritium, dissolved noble gases and 15N isotopes analyses. Various possible fluid migration pathways were identified at the sites. Data for the south site suggest buoyancy-driven vertical pathways to overlying aquifers bypassing the confining units, with little mixing of injected wastewater with native water as it migrated upward. Once it is introduced into an aquifer, the injectate appeared to migrate advectively with the regional groundwater flow. Geochemical modeling indicated that CO 2-enriched injected wastewater allowed for carbonate dissolution along the vertical pathways, enhancing permeability along these flowpaths. At the north site, diffusive upward flow through the confining units or offsite vertical pathways were determined to be possible, however no evidence was detected for any on-site confining unit bypass pathway. No evidence was observed at either site of injected wastewater migration to the Upper Floridan aquifer, which is used as a municipal water supply and for aquifer storage and recovery.