Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Enhancing the immunogenicity and modulating the fine epitope recognition of antisera to a helical group A streptococcal peptide vaccine candidate from the M protein using lipid-core peptide technology

A conserved helical peptide vaccine candidate from the M protein of group A streptococci, p145, has been described. Minimal epitopes within p145 have been defined and an epitope recognized by protective antibodies, but not by autoreactive T cells, has been identified. When administered to mice, p145 has low immunogenicity. Many boosts of peptide are required to achieve a high antibody titre (> 12 800). To attempt to overcome this low immunogenicity, lipid-core peptide technology was employed. Lipid-core peptides (LCP) consist of an oligomeric polylysine core, with multiple copies of the peptide of choice, conjugated to a series of lipoamino acids, which acts as an anchor for the antigen. Seven different LCP constructs based on the p145 peptide sequence were synthesized (LCP1-->LCP7) and the immunogenicity of the compounds examined. The most immunogenic constructs contained the longest alkyl side-chains. The number of lipoamino acids in the constructs affected the immunogenicity and spacing between the alkyl side-chains increased immunogenicity. An increase in immunogenicity (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) titres) of up to 100-fold was demonstrated using this technology and some constructs without adjuvant were more immunogenic than p145 administered with complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA). The fine specificity of the induced antibody response differed for the different constructs but one construct, LCP4, induced antibodies of identical fine specificity to those found in endemic human serum. Opsonic activity of LCP4 antisera was more than double that of p145 antisera. These data show the potential for LCP technology to both enhance immunogenicity of complex peptides and to focus the immune response towards or away from critical epitopes.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Tissue engineering for bone regeneration using differentiated alveolar bone cells in collagen scaffolds

Regeneration of osseous defects by a tissue-engineering approach provides a novel means of treatment utilizing cell biology, materials science, and molecular biology. In this study the concept of tissue engineering was tested with collagen type I matrices seeded with cells with osteogenic potential and implanted into sites where osseous damage had occurred. Explant cultures of cells from human alveolar bone and gingiva were established. When seeded into a three-dimensional type I collagen-based scaffold, the bone-derived cells maintained their osteoblastic phenotype as monitored by mRNA and protein levels of the bone-related proteins including bone sialoprotein, osteocalcin, osteopontin, bone morphogenetic proteins 2 and 4, and alkaline phosphatase. These in vitro-developed matrices were implanted into critical-size bone defects in skulls of immunodeficient (SCID) mice. Wound healing was monitored for up to 4 weeks. When measured by microdensitometry the bone density within defects filled with osteoblast-derived matrix was significantly higher compared with defects filled with either collagen scaffold alone or collagen scaffold impregnated with gingival fibroblasts. New bone formation was found at all the sites treated with the osteoblast-derived matrix at 28 days, whereas no obvious new bone formation was identified at the same time point in the control groups. In situ hybridization for the human-specific Alu gene sequence indicated that the newly formed bone tissue resulted from both transplanted human osteoblasts and endogenous mesenchymal stem cells. The results indicate that cells derived from human alveolar bone can be incorporated into bioengineered scaffolds and synthesize a matrix, which on implantation can induce new bone formation.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

Complete genomic sequence of the Australian south-west genotype of Sindbis virus: Comparisons with other Sindbis strains and identification of a unique deletion in the 3 '-untranslated region

Our previous studies have shown that two distinct genotypes of Sindbis (SIN) virus occur in Australia. One of these, the Oriental/Australian type, circulates throughout most of the Australian continent, whereas the recently identified south-west (SW) genetic type appears to be restricted to a distinct geographic region located in the temperate south-west of Australia. We have now determined the complete nucleotide and translated amino acid sequences of a SW isolate of SIN virus (SW6562) and performed comparative analyses with other SIN viruses at the genomic level. The genome of SW6562 is 11,569 nucleotides in length, excluding the cap nucleotide and poly (A) tail. Overall this virus differs from the prototype SIN virus (strain AR339) by 23% in nucleotide sequence and 12.5% in amino acid sequence. Partial sequences of four regions of the genome of four SW isolates were determined and compared with the corresponding sequences from a number of SIN isolates from different regions of the World. These regions are the non-structural protein (nsP3), the E2 gene, the capsid gene, and the repeated sequence elements (RSE) of the 3'UTR. These comparisons revealed that the SW SIN viruses were more closely related to South African and European strains than to other Australian isolates of SIN virus. Thus the SW genotype of SIN virus may have been introduced into this region of Australia by viremic humans or migratory birds and subsequently evolved independently in the region. The sequence data also revealed that the SW genotype contains a unique deletion in the RSE of the 3'UTR region of the genome. Previous studies have shown that deletions in this region of the SIN genome can have significant effects on virus replication in mosquito and avian cells, which may explain the restricted distribution of this genotype of SIN virus.