Predictors of the Indefinite-Duration Anticoagulation Treatment Strategy In Patients with Cancer Associated Thrombosis

Background: In patients with cancer and acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), current consensus guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for an indefinite duration or until the cancer is resolved. Methods and results: Among 1'247 patients with acute VTE enrolled in the Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry (SWIVTER) from 18 hospitals, 315 (25%) had cancer of whom 179 (57%) had metastatic disease, 159 (50%) ongoing or recent chemotherapy, and 83 (26%) tumor surgery within 6 months. Patients with cancer were older (66±14 vs. 60±19 years, p<0.001), more often hospitalized at the time of VTE diagnosis (46% vs. 36%, p=0.001), immobile for >3 days (25% vs. 16%, p<0.001), and more often had thrombocytopenia (6% vs. 1%, p<0.001) than patients without cancer. The 30-day rate of VTE-related death or recurrent VTE was 9% in cancer patients vs. 4% in patients without cancer (p<0.001), and the rates of bleeding requiring medical attention were 5% in both groups (p=0.57). Cancer patients received indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment more often than patients without cancer (47% vs. 19%, p<0.001), and LMWH mono-therapy during the initial 3 months was prescribed to 45% vs. 8%, p<0.001, respectively. Among patients with cancer, prior VTE (OR 4.0, 95%CI 2.0-8.0), metastatic disease (OR 3.0, 95%CI 1.7-5.2), outpatient status at the time of VTE diagnosis (OR 3.8, 95%CI 1.9-7.6), and inpatient treatment (OR 4.4, 95%CI 2.1-9.2) were independently associated with the prescription of indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Conclusions: Less than half of the cancer patients with acute VTE received a prescription for indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Recurrent VTE, metastatic cancer, outpatient VTE diagnosis, and VTE requiring hospitalization were associated with an increased use of this strategy.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment. METHOD: A retrospective file audit of 661 patients was carried out. RESULTS: Six patients (0.9%) died by suicide, 93 (14.3%) attempted suicide prior to entry, and 57 (8.7%) did so during treatment. Predictors of suicide attempt were: previous attempt (odds ratio (OR)=45.54, 95% confidence interval (CI)=9.46-219.15), sexual abuse (OR=8.46, 95%CI=1.88-38.03), comorbid polysubstance (OR=13.63, 95%CI=2.58-71.99), greater insight (OR=0.17, 95%CI=0.06-0.49), lower baseline Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment score (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.62-0.91; OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-0.99), and longer time in treatment (OR=1.05, 95%CI=1.03-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal behaviour was high, indicating that suicidal behaviour in incidence populations is higher than in non-epidemiological cohorts of first-episode patients. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt among the sample, however, was lower than expected, suggesting that specialist services can play a role in reducing suicide risk.

Joint array combining and MLSE for single-user receivers in multipath Gaussian multiuser channels

The well-known structure of an array combiner along with a maximum likelihood sequence estimator (MLSE) receiveris the basis for the derivation of a space-time processor presentinggood properties in terms of co-channel and intersymbol interferencerejection. The use of spatial diversity at the receiver front-endtogether with a scalar MLSE implies a joint design of the spatialcombiner and the impulse response for the sequence detector. Thisis faced using the MMSE criterion under the constraint that thedesired user signal power is not cancelled, yielding an impulse responsefor the sequence detector that is matched to the channel andcombiner response. The procedure maximizes the signal-to-noiseratio at the input of the detector and exhibits excellent performancein realistic multipath channels.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Assigning and combining probabilities in single-case studies

There is currently a considerable diversity of quantitative measures available for summarizing the results in single-case studies. Given that the interpretation of some of them is difficult due to the lack of established benchmarks, the current paper proposes an approach for obtaining further numerical evidence on the importance of the results, complementing the substantive criteria, visual analysis, and primary summary measures. This additional evidence consists of obtaining the statistical significance of the outcome when referred to the corresponding sampling distribution. This sampling distribution is formed by the values of the outcomes (expressed as data nonoverlap, R-squared, etc.) in case the intervention is ineffective. The approach proposed here is intended to offer the outcome"s probability of being as extreme when there is no treatment effect without the need for some assumptions that cannot be checked with guarantees. Following this approach, researchers would compare their outcomes to reference values rather than constructing the sampling distributions themselves. The integration of single-case studies is problematic, when different metrics are used across primary studies and not all raw data are available. Via the approach for assigning p values it is possible to combine the results of similar studies regardless of the primary effect size indicator. The alternatives for combining probabilities are discussed in the context of single-case studies pointing out two potentially useful methods one based on a weighted average and the other on the binomial test.

Comorbidity and nutritional indices as predictors of morbidity after transurethral procedures: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.

Predictors of favourable outcome in first-episode patients who refuse medication: results from the FEPOS study

There are suggestions that some first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients can have favourable outcome without antipsychotic medication. However, there is very limited data regarding patients' characteristics on which the decision to propose medication free treatment could be based. FEPOS is a fi le-based study of an epidemiological sample of 704 FEP patients treated at EPPIC, Melbourne, between 1998 and 2000. Among the 661 patients where data was available, 108 consistently refused medication during the entire duration of their treatment at EPPIC. In this paper we compared, within this sub-group, patients who had a favourable outcome with those who did not. Patients were aged between 15 and 29 years (M = 21.9, SD = 3.40) and the majority were male (70.4%, n = 76). Symptomatic remission data was available on 105 patients; of these patients 41.0% (n = 41) had achieved remission. Functional remission data was available on 100 patients; of these patients 33.0% (n = 33) had achieved functional remission. Combined remission was evident in 23.0% (n = 23) of patients. Three factors were associated with symptomatic remission: better premorbid functioning (based on GAF, OR = 1.07, p = 0.006), higher number of years of education (OR = 1.43, p = 0.020), and being employed or studying at service entry (OR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Three factors were associated with functional remission: shorter duration of prodrome (OR = 0.50, p = 0.043), severity of psychopathology (CGI-S, OR = 0.51, p = 0.024), and vocational status at service entry (OR = 4.29, p = 0.003). While various aspects of pre-morbid functioning seem to correlate with the possibility of a favourable outcome in FEP patients who refuse medication, various limitations need to be taken into account in this study.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of imported malaria in an outpatient setting: an aid to medical decision making in returning travellers with fever

Si le tableau clinique évoque une malaria et que le résultat des examens parasitologiques n?est pas disponible ou est négatif, le praticien n?a pas d?information basée sur l?évidence pour savoir s?il doit donner ou non un traitement présomptif. Afin d?identifier les facteurs cliniques et paracliniques prédictifs d?une parasitémie à Plasmodium, nous avons mené une étude prospective chez les voyageurs ou migrants en provenance d?une zone tropicale ou subtropicale et qui consultaient pour de la fièvre. Le questionnaire comprenait 49 items explorant les données démographiques, les caractéristiques du voyage, les éléments de l?anamnèse et de l?examen clinique ainsi que les résultats de laboratoire. 336 sujets avec données complètes ont été recrutés (97 patients atteints de malaria et 239 contrôles avec fièvre et examen parasitologique négatif). L?analyse de régression multivariée a permis d?identifier les facteurs prédictifs de maiaria suivants : prophylaxie inadéquate, sudations, absence de douleur abdominale, température )38"C, mauvais état général, splénomégalie, compte leucocytaire (1 O x 1 03/L, plaquettes ~ 1 5 0 x l 03/L, taux d?hémoglobine <12 g/dL et éosinophiles (5%. La présence d?une splénomégalie avait le coefficient de probabilité positif pour un diagnostic de malaria le plus élevé (1 3.6) ; venait ensuite la présence d?une thrombopénie (1 1 .O). Dans le contexte de la consultation ambulatoire de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire (prévalence de malaria de 29%), la probabilité post- test d?avoir un examen parasitologique positif était de 85% pour la splénomégalie et de 82% pour la thrombopénie. Même si le seuil thérapeutique n?est pas absolument défini, il semble raisonnable d?envisager un traitement présomptif lorsque la probabilité post- test est >80%. Si le médecin est réticent à administrer un traitement sans documentation parasitologique, il devrait au moins se retenir d?entreprendre d?autres investigations coûteuses, et plutôt répéter l?examen parasitologique après 12-24 heures.

Personality, social values, and marital satisfaction as predictors of parents’ rearing styles

Los estilos de crianza parentales pueden afectar la conducta y socialización de los adolescentes, por lo que es de interés conocer cómo algunas variables psicológicas de los padres se relacionan con los estilos de crianza. Este estudio tiene el objetivo de analizar los estilos de crianza de los padres, valores sociales (prestigio social, orden, benevolencia, y conservadurismo-liberalismo), los cinco grandes factores de personalidad, y la satisfacción de pareja (acuerdo general, afecto, satisfacción, y cohesión) en los padres de adolescentes. Este es un estudio prospectivo basado en método de análisis correlacional. Se encontró que los estilos educativos definidos por el cariño y aceptación se relacionan con los rasgos de personalidad como responsabilidad y estabilidad emocional, alta satisfacción de pareja y preferencia por valores prosociales. Al contrario, los estilos de crianza de sobreprotección y favoritismo se relacionan con baja amabilidad y baja apertura el poco ajuste de pareja con falta de cohesión y valores sociales definidos por falta de benevolencia y preferencia por valores de prestigio social.

Career engagement : Investigating intraindividual predictors of weekly fluctuations in proactive career behaviors

The present study applies a micro-level perspective on how within-individual differences in motivational and social-cognitive factors affect the weekly fluctuations of engagement in proactive career behaviors among a group of 67 German university students. Career self-efficacy beliefs, perceived career barriers, experienced social career support, positive and negative emotions, and career engagement were assessed weekly for 13 consecutive weeks. Hierarchical linear regression analyses showed that above-average levels of career engagement within individuals were predicted by higher than average perceived social support and positive emotions during a given week. Conversely, within-individual differences in self-efficacy, barriers, and negative emotions had no effect. The results suggest that career interventions should provide boosts in social support and positive emotions.

Cognitive Predictors and Risk Factors of PTSD Following Stillbirth: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study.

This short-term longitudinal study investigated cognitive predictors and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in mothers following stillbirth. After a stillbirth at ≥ 24 weeks gestational age, 65 women completed structured clinical interviews and questionnaires assessing PTSD symptoms, cognitive predictors (appraisals, dysfunctional strategies), and risk factors (perceived social support, trauma history, obstetric history) at 3 and 6 months. PTSD symptoms decreased between 3 and 6 months (Cohen's d ranged .34-.52). Regression analyses also revealed a specific positive relationship between Rumination and concurrent frequency of PTSD symptoms (β = .45). Negative Self-View and Negative World-View related positively and Self-Blame related negatively to concurrent number of PTSD symptoms (β = .48, .44, -.45, respectively). Suppression and Distraction predicted a decrease and Numbing predicted an increase in time-lagged number of PTSD symptoms (β = -.33, -.28, .30, respectively). Risk factors for PTSD symptoms were younger age (β = -.25), lower income (β = -.29), fewer previous pregnancies (β = -.31), and poorer perceived social support (β = -.26). Interventions addressing negative appraisals, dysfunctional strategies, and social support are recommended for mothers with PTSD following stillbirth. Knowledge of cognitive predictors and risk factors of PTSD may inform the development of a screening instrument.