Bayesian estimation of co-integrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates.

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Composition, color, and texture of Thai indigenous and broiler chicken muscles

Chemical compositions and physical properties of mixed-sex Thai indigenous (Gallus domesticus) and broiler (commercial breed, CP707) chicken biceps femoris and pectoralis muscles were determined. Indigenous chicken muscles contained higher protein contents but lower fat and ash contents compared to broiler muscles (P < 0.001). The amino acid profile of the indigenous chicken muscles was similar to that of the broiler muscles except they were slightly richer in glutamic acid (P < 0.05). The indigenous chicken muscles contained more saturated and less polyunsaturated fatty acids than the broiler muscles. There were no differences in the monounsaturated fatty acid contents between the breeds. The total collagen contents of indigenous pectoralis and biceps femoris muscles were 5.09 and 12.85 mg/g, respectively, which were higher than those found in broiler pectoralis (3.86 mg/g) and biceps femoris muscles (8.70 mg/g) (P < 0.001). Soluble collagen contents were lower for indigenous pectoralis and biceps femoris muscles, 22.16 vs. 31.38% and 26.06 vs. 33.87%, respectively. The CIE system values of lightness (L*), redness (a*), and yellowness (b*) of indigenous chicken muscles were higher than those of broiler muscles. The shear values of indigenous chicken muscles either raw or cooked were higher than those of broiler muscles (P < 0.05). After cooking, the shear values decreased for broiler biceps femoris and pectoralis muscles (P < 0.05), whereas no change was observed for indigenous chicken biceps femoris muscle (P > 0.05). Shear values increased for indigenous chicken pectoralis muscle (P < 0.05).

Effect of heat treatment on the antioxidant activity, color, and free phenolic acid profile of malt

Green malt was kilned at 95 degrees C following two regimens: a standard regimen (SKR) and a rapid regimen (RKR). Both resulting malts were treated further in a tray dryer heated to 120 degrees C, as was green malt previously dried to 65 degrees C (TDR). Each regimen was monitored by determining the color, antioxidant activity (by both ABTS(center dot+) and FRAP methods), and polyphenolic profile. SKR and RKR malts exhibited decreased L* and increased b* values above approximately 80 degrees C. TDR malts changed significantly less, and color did not develop until 110 degrees C, implying that different chemical reactions lead to color in those malts. Antioxidant activity increased progressively with each regimen, although with TDR malts this became significant only at 110-120 degrees C. The RKR malt ABTS(center dot+) values were higher than those of the SKR malt. The main phenolics, that is, ferulic, p-coumaric, and vanillic acids, were monitored throughout heating. Ferulic acid levels increased upon heating to 80 degrees C for SKR and to 70 degrees C for RKR, with subsequent decreases. However, the levels for TDR malts did not increase significantly. The increase in free phenolics early in kilning could be due to enzymatic release of bound phenolics and/or easier extractability due to changes in the matrix. The differences between the kilning regimens used suggest that further modification of the regimens could lead to greater release of bound phenolics with consequent beneficial effects on flavor stability in beer and, more generally, on human health.

Computer vision and color measurement techniques for inline monitoring of cheese curd syneresis

Optical characteristics of stirred curd were simultaneously monitored during syneresis in a 10-L cheese vat using computer vision and colorimetric measurements. Curd syneresis kinetic conditions were varied using 2 levels of milk pH (6.0 and 6.5) and 2 agitation speeds (12.1 and 27.2 rpm). Measured optical parameters were compared with gravimetric measurements of syneresis, taken simultaneously. The results showed that computer vision and colorimeter measurements have potential for monitoring syneresis. The 2 different phases, curd and whey, were distinguished by means of color differences. As syneresis progressed, the backscattered light became increasingly yellow in hue for circa 20 min for the higher stirring speed and circa 30 min for the lower stirring speed. Syneresis-related gravimetric measurements of importance to cheese making (e.g., curd moisture content, total solids in whey, and yield of whey) correlated significantly with computer vision and colorimetric measurements..

Color adjectives and radical contextualism

Radical contextualists have observed that the content of what is said by the utterance of a sentence is shaped in far-reaching ways by the context of utterance. And they have argued that the ways in which the content of what is said is shaped by context cannot be explained by semantic theory. A striking number of the examples that radical contextualists use to support their view involve sentences containing color adjectives (“red”, “green”, etc.). In this paper, I show how the most sophisticated analysis of color adjectives within the explanatory framework of compositional truth conditional semantics—recently developed by Kennedy and McNally (Synthese 174(1):79–98 2010)—needs to be modified to handle the full range of contextual variation displayed by color adjectives.

Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts*

Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part of the recorded increase in TC counts. This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less) in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily due to an increase in very short-lived TCs. The authors also undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques. These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.

Simulating the interannual variability of major dust storms on Mars using variable lifting thresholds

The redistribution of a finite amount of martian surface dust during global dust storms and in the intervening periods has been modelled in a dust lifting version of the UK Mars General Circulation Model. When using a constant, uniform threshold in the model’s wind stress lifting parameterisation and assuming an unlimited supply of surface dust, multiannual simulations displayed some variability in dust lifting activity from year to year, arising from internal variability manifested in surface wind stress, but dust storms were limited in size and formed within a relatively short seasonal window. Lifting thresholds were then allowed to vary at each model gridpoint, dependent on the rates of emission or deposition of dust. This enhanced interannual variability in dust storm magnitude and timing, such that model storms covered most of the observed ranges in size and initiation date within a single multiannual simulation. Peak storm magnitude in a given year was primarily determined by the availability of surface dust at a number of key sites in the southern hemisphere. The observed global dust storm (GDS) frequency of roughly one in every 3 years was approximately reproduced, but the model failed to generate these GDSs spontaneously in the southern hemisphere, where they have typically been observed to initiate. After several years of simulation, the surface threshold field—a proxy for net change in surface dust density—showed good qualitative agreement with the observed pattern of martian surface dust cover. The model produced a net northward cross-equatorial dust mass flux, which necessitated the addition of an artificial threshold decrease rate in order to allow the continued generation of dust storms over the course of a multiannual simulation. At standard model resolution, for the southward mass flux due to cross-equatorial flushing storms to offset the northward flux due to GDSs on a timescale of ∼3 years would require an increase in the former by a factor of 3–4. Results at higher model resolution and uncertainties in dust vertical profiles mean that quasi-periodic redistribution of dust on such a timescale nevertheless appears to be a plausible explanation for the observed GDS frequency.

Free People of Color: expulsion and enslavement in the Antebellum South

This chapter explores the expulsion and enslavement of free People of Color in the southern states of the USA before the Civil War.