How effective are brief interventions in smoking cessation: project of a cohort study in a family health care unit

ABSTRACT: Tobacco use remains the most significant modifiable cause of disability, death and illness1. In Portugal, 19,6% of the population aged ten years or more smoke3. A Cochrane review of 20087 concluded that a brief advice intervention (compared to usual care) can increase the likelihood of a smoker to quit and remain nonsmoker 12 months later by a further 1 to 3 %. Several studies have shown that Primary Care Physicians can play a key role in these interventions8,9,10. However we did not find studies about the effectiveness of brief interventions in routine consultations of Family Doctors in Portugal. For this reason we designed a Cohort Study to make an exploratory study about the effectiveness of brief interventions of less than three minutes in comparison with usual care in routine consultations. The study will be implemented in a Family Healthcare Unit in Beja, during six months. Family Doctors of the intervention group should be submitted for an educational and training program before the study begin. Quit smoking sustained rates will be estimated one year after the first intervention in each smoker. If, as we expect, quit smoking rates will be higher in the intervention group than in the control group, this may change Portuguese Family Doctors attitudes and increase the provision of brief interventions in routine consultations in Primary Healthcare Centers.

Numerical methods and tangible interfaces for pollutant dispersion simulation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

The Intensive Care Global Study on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (IC-GLOSSARI): a Multicenter, Multinational, 14-Day Inception Cohort Study

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter, 14-day inception cohort study, we investigated the epidemiology, patterns of infections, and outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) as a result of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). METHODS: All patients admitted to one of 206 participating ICUs during two study weeks, one in November 2013 and the other in January 2014, were screened. SARI was defined as possible, probable, or microbiologically confirmed respiratory tract infection with recent onset dyspnea and/or fever. The primary outcome parameter was in-hospital mortality within 60 days of admission to the ICU. RESULTS: Among the 5550 patients admitted during the study periods, 663 (11.9 %) had SARI. On admission to the ICU, Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria were found in 29.6 and 26.2 % of SARI patients but rarely atypical bacteria (1.0 %); viruses were present in 7.7 % of patients. Organ failure occurred in 74.7 % of patients in the ICU, mostly respiratory (53.8 %), cardiovascular (44.5 %), and renal (44.6 %). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates in patients with SARI were 20.2 and 27.2 %, respectively. In multivariable analysis, older age, greater severity scores at ICU admission, and hematologic malignancy or liver disease were independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death, whereas influenza vaccination prior to ICU admission and adequate antibiotic administration on ICU admission were associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Admission to the ICU for SARI is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. We identified several risk factors for in-hospital death that may be useful for risk stratification in these patients.

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

LAMA2 Gene Analysis in a Cohort of 26 Congenital Muscular Dystrophy Patients

Congenital muscular dystrophy type 1A (MDC1A) is caused by mutations in the LAMA2 gene encoding laminin-alpha2. We describe the molecular study of 26 patients with clinical presentation, magnetic resonance imaging and/or laminin-alpha2 expression in muscle, compatible with MDC1A. The combination of full genomic sequencing and complementary DNA analysis led to the particularly high mutation detection rate of 96% (50/52 disease alleles). Besides 22 undocumented polymorphisms, 18 different mutations were identified in the course of this work, 14 of which were novel. In particular, we describe the first fully characterized gross deletion in the LAMA2 gene, encompassing exon 56 (c.7750-1713_7899-2153del), detected in 31% of the patients. The only two missense mutations detected were found in heterozygosity with nonsense or truncating mutations in the two patients with the milder clinical presentation and a partial reduction in muscle laminin-alpha2. Our results corroborate the previous few genotype/phenotype correlations in MDC1A and illustrate the importance of screening for gross rearrangements in the LAMA2 gene, which may be underestimated in the literature.

Spectrum and Frequency of GJB2 Mutations in a Cohort of 264 Portuguese Nonsyndromic Sensorineural Hearing Loss Patients

OBJECTIVE: To assess the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the GJB2 gene in Portuguese nonsyndromic sensorineural hearing loss (NSSHL) patients. DESIGN: Sequencing of the coding region, basal promoter, exon 1, and donor splice site of the GJB2 gene; screening for the presence of the two common GJB6 deletions. STUDY SAMPLE: A cohort of 264 Portuguese NSSHL patients. RESULTS: At least one out of 21 different GJB2 variants was identified in 80 (30.2%) of the 264 patients analysed. Two mutant alleles were found in 53 (20%) of these probands, of which 83% (44/53) harboured at least one c.35delG allele. Twenty-seven (10.2%) of the probands harboured only one mutant allele. Subsequent analysis revealed that the GJB6 deletion del(GJB6-D13S1854) was present in at least 7.4% (2/27) of the patients carrying only one mutant GJB2 allele. Overall, one in five (55/264) of the patients were diagnosed as having DFNB1-related NSSHL, of which the vast majority (53/55) harboured only GJB2 mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides clear demonstration that mutations in the GJB2 gene are an important cause of NSSHL in Portugal, thus representing a valuable indicator as regards therapeutical and rehabilitation options, as well as genetic counseling of these patients and their families.

Gas adsorption in the MIL-53(AI) metal organic framework. Experiments and molecular simulation

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química

A simulation model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management: practices and interoperability assessment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Mental health care assessed based on structure, process and outcome : a retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: As doenças mentais são comuns, universais e associadas a uma significativa sobrecarga pessoal, familiar, social e económica. Os Serviços de Saúde Mental devem abordar de forma adequada as necessidades dos pacientes e familiares tanto ao nível clínico como também ao nível social. O presente estudo foi realizado num período de grande transformação nos sistemas de saúde primário e de saúde mental em Portugal, num Departamento de Psiquiatria desenvolvido com base nos princípios da OMS. Os objectivos incluem a caracterização: 1) das Unidades Funcionais do Departamento; 2) dos pacientes internados pela primeira vez no internamento de agudos; 3) da utilização dos serviços nas equipas comunitárias após a alta; e 4) da avaliação de alguns dos indicadores de qualidade do departamento, com recurso ao modelo de Donabedian sobre a articulação entre a Estrutura-Processo-Resultados. Metodologia: Foi escolhido um estudo de coorte retrospectivo. Todos os pacientes internados pela primeira vez entre 2008 e 2010 foram incluídos no estudo. Os seus processos clínicos e a base de dados do hospital onde são registados todos os contactos que estes tiveram com os profissionais de saúde mental foram revistos de forma a obter dados sociodemográficos e clínicos, durante o período do estudo e após a alta. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o WHO-ICMHC (Classificação Internacional de Cuidados de Saúde Mental), para caracterizar o Departamento, o AIESMP (Avaliação Inicial de Enfermagem em Saúde Mental e Psiquiatria) para recolha dos dados sociodemográficos, e o VSSS (Escala de Satisfação com os Serviços de Verona) de forma a avaliar a satisfação dos pacientes em relação aos cuidados recebidos. A análise estatística incluiu a análise descritiva, quantitativa e qualitativa dos dados. Resultados: As Unidades Funcionais do Departamento revelaram níveis elevados de articulação e consistência com as necessidades de cuidados psiquiátricos e reabilitação psicossocial dos pacientes. Os 543 pacientes admitidos pela primeira vez eram maioritariamente (56.9%) mulheres, caucasianas (81.2%), com diagnóstico de perturbações do humor (66.3%), internadas voluntariamente (59.7%), e uma idade média de 45.1 anos. Estas eram significativamente mais velhas, mais frequentemente empregadas, casadas/coabitar e tinham uma prevalência mais elevada de perturbações do humor, comparativamente aos homens. O internamento compulsivo era mais significativo nos homens (54.7%). A taxa de abandono no pós-alta (4.2%) e a taxa de reinternamentos (2.9%) na quinzena após a alta revelaram-se inferiores aos padrões na literatura internacional. De forma global, a satisfação dos pacientes com os cuidados de saúde mental foi positiva. Conclusões: Os cuidados prestados mostraram-se eficazes, adaptados e baseados nas necessidades e problemas específicos dos pacientes. A continuidade e a abrangência de cuidados foram difundidos e mantidos ao longo do processo de cuidados. Este Departamento pode ser considerado um exemplo de como proporcionar tratamento digno e eficiente, e uma referência para futuros serviços de psiquiatria.-------------- ABSTRACT: Mental health disorders are common, universal, and associated with heavy personal, family, social and economic burden. Mental health services should be aimed at adequately addressing patients’ and families’ needs at clinical and social level. The current study was carried out at a time of great transformation in the health and mental health systems in Portugal, in a Psychiatric Department developed taking in consideration the WHO principles. The objectives included characterizing: 1) the Psychiatric Department’s different units; 2) the patients admitted for the first time to the inpatient unit; 3) their use of community mental health services after discharge; and 4) assessing some of the department’s quality indicators, with resource to Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome model. Methodology: A retrospective cohort design was chosen. All the firstly admitted patients in the period between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Their clinical records and the hospital’s database which registers all of the contacts the patients had with the mental health professionals during the study period, were reviewed to retrieve sociodemographic and clinical data and information on follow-up. The instruments used were the WHO International Classification of Mental Health Care (ICMHC) to characterize the department, the Initial Nurses’ Assessment in Mental Health and Psychiatry (AIESMP) for patients’ sociodemographic data, and the Verona Service Satisfaction Scale (VSSS) to assess patients’ satisfaction with care received. Statistical analysis included descriptive, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data. Results: The Department’s Functional units revealed high levels of articulation, and were consistent with patients’ needs for psychiatric care and psychosocial rehabilitation. The 543 patients firstly admitted were mainly (56.9%) female, Caucasian (81.2%), diagnosed with mood disorders (66.3%), voluntarily admitted (59.7%), and with a mean age of 45.1 years. Female patients were significantly older, more frequently employed, married/cohabiting and had a higher prevalence of mood disorders when compared to males. Involuntary admission was more significant in males (54.7%). Dropout rates during follow-up (4.2%) and readmission rates (2.9%) in the fortnight following discharge were lower than standards in international literature. Overall patients’ satisfaction with mental health care was positive. Conclusions: The care delivered was effective, adapted and based on the patients’ specific needs and problems. Continuity and comprehensiveness of care was endorsed and maintained throughout the care process. This department may be considered an example of both humane and effective treatment, and a reference for future psychiatric care.

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Molecular simulation of gas adsorption equilibria in nanoporous materials

This work is divided into two distinct parts. The first part consists of the study of the metal organic framework UiO-66Zr, where the aim was to determine the force field that best describes the adsorption equilibrium properties of two different gases, methane and carbon dioxide. The other part of the work focuses on the study of the single wall carbon nanotube topology for ethane adsorption; the aim was to simplify as much as possible the solid-fluid force field model to increase the computational efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulations. The choice of both adsorbents relies on their potential use in adsorption processes, such as the capture and storage of carbon dioxide, natural gas storage, separation of components of biogas, and olefin/paraffin separations. The adsorption studies on the two porous materials were performed by molecular simulation using the grand canonical Monte Carlo (μ,V,T) method, over the temperature range of 298-343 K and pressure range 0.06-70 bar. The calibration curves of pressure and density as a function of chemical potential and temperature for the three adsorbates under study, were obtained Monte Carlo simulation in the canonical ensemble (N,V,T); polynomial fit and interpolation of the obtained data allowed to determine the pressure and gas density at any chemical potential. The adsorption equilibria of methane and carbon dioxide in UiO-66Zr were simulated and compared with the experimental data obtained by Jasmina H. Cavka et al. The results show that the best force field for both gases is a chargeless united-atom force field based on the TraPPE model. Using this validated force field it was possible to estimate the isosteric heats of adsorption and the Henry constants. In the Grand-Canonical Monte Carlo simulations of carbon nanotubes, we conclude that the fastest type of run is obtained with a force field that approximates the nanotube as a smooth cylinder; this approximation gives execution times that are 1.6 times faster than the typical atomistic runs.

Agent-based parking occupancy simulation

The existing parking simulations, as most simulations, are intended to gain insights of a system or to make predictions. The knowledge they have provided has built up over the years, and several research works have devised detailed parking system models. This thesis work describes the use of an agent-based parking simulation in the context of a bigger parking system development. It focuses more on flexibility than on fidelity, showing the case where it is relevant for a parking simulation to consume dynamically changing GIS data from external, online sources and how to address this case. The simulation generates the parking occupancy information that sensing technologies should eventually produce and supplies it to the bigger parking system. It is built as a Java application based on the MASON toolkit and consumes GIS data from an ArcGis Server. The application context of the implemented parking simulation is a university campus with free, on-street parking places.

Atypical lymphocytosis in leptospirosis: a cohort of hospitalized cases between 1996 and 2009 in State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease found in tropical and temperate countries, and its clinical diagnostic confusion with arboviruses (dengue fever, oropouche fever and yellow fever), Brazilian spotted fever, viral hepatitis and hantaviruses has been an ongoing public health concern. The aim of this observational study was to demonstrate an association between findings of atypical lymphocytosis and the progression of endemic leptospirosis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on the demographic, epidemiological, clinical and laboratory aspects of 27 human leptospirosis cases that occurred over a period of 13 years (1996-2009) with no reported epidemic outbreaks in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 11.1% in our cohort of hospitalized cases. However, there was no mortality among patients with atypical lymphocytosis (OR = 11.1; 95% CI = 1.12-110.9; p = 0.04). Two patients who were in the septicemic phase showed signs of expansion of γδ T cell responses in peripheral blood. CONCLUSIONS: Atypical lymphocytosis may be observed in patients with leptospirosis. Our observations suggest that these atypical leukocyte subsets are associated with partial protection during the disease course of leptospirosis.