Short communication: plasma concentration of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide may regulate milk energy production in lactating dairy cows

In dairy cows, an increase in plasma concentration of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is associated with an increase in metabolizable energy intake, but the role of GIP in energy partitioning of dairy cattle is not certain. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between plasma GIP concentrations and energy partitioning toward milk production. Four mid-lactation, primiparous, rumenfistulated Holstein-Friesian cows were fed a control diet of 55% forage and 45% concentrate [dry matter (DM) basis] in a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 4-wk periods. The 4 treatments were (1) control diet fed at 1000 and 1600 h, and (2) once-daily (1000 h) feeding, (3) twice daily (1000 and 1600 h) feeding, and (4) 4 times/d (1000, 1600, 2200 and 0400 h) feeding of the control diet plus 1 dose (1.75 kg on a DM basis at 0955 h) into the rumen of supplemental vegetable proteins (Amino Green; SCA NuTec Ltd., Thirsk, UK). Measurements of respiratory exchange and energy balance were obtained over 4 d during the last week of each period while cows were housed in open-circuit respiration chambers. Blood was collected from the jugular vein every 30 min for 12 h, using indwelling catheters, starting at 0800 h on d 20 of each period. Plasma GIP concentration was measured in samples pooled over each 5 consecutive blood samplings. The relationships between plasma GIP, DM intake, heat production, respiratory quotient, milk yield, and milk energy output were analyzed using linear correlation procedures, with metabolizable intake as a partial variant. Plasma GIP concentration was not correlated with heat production, or milk yield, but was positively correlated with milk energy yield (correlation coefficient = 0.67) and negatively correlated with RQ (correlation coefficient = −0.72). The correlations between GIP and RQ and milk energy output do not imply causality, but suggest that a role for GIP may exist in the regulation of energy metabolism in dairy cows.

Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK

This paper considers the effect of short- and long-term interest rates, and interest rate spreads upon real estate index returns in the UK. Using Johansen's vector autoregressive framework, it is found that the real estate index cointegrates with the term spread, but not with the short or long rates themselves. Granger causality tests indicate that movements in short term interest rates and the spread cause movements in the returns series. However, decomposition of the forecast error variances from VAR models indicate that changes in these variables can only explain a small proportion of the overall variability of the returns, and that the effect has fully worked through after two months. The results suggest that these financial variables could potentially be used as leading indicators for real estate markets, with corresponding implications for return predictability.

Does orthogonalization really purge equity based property valuations of their general stock market influences?

This paper uses a recently developed nonlinear Granger causality test to determine whether linear orthogonalization really does remove general stock market influences on real estate returns to leave pure industry effects in the latter. The results suggest that there is no nonlinear relationship between the US equity-based property index returns and returns on a general stock market index, although there is evidence of nonlinear causality for the corresponding UK series.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Predicting stock index volatility: can market volume help?

This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the NYSE. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than the other way around. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and neural network models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to very modest improvements, if any, in forecasting performance.

Rerum cognoscere causas: part II - opportunities generated by the agency/structure debate and suggestions for clarifying the social theoretic position of system dynamics

This is the second half of a two-part paper dealing with the social theoretic assumptions underlying system dynamics. In the first half it was concluded that analysing system dynamics using traditional, paradigm-based social theories is highly problematic. An innovative and potentially fruitful resolution is now proposed to these problems. In the first section it is argued that in order to find an appropriate social theoretic home for system dynamics it is necessary to look to a key exchange in contemporary social science: the agency/structure debate. This debate aims to move beyond both the theories based only on the actions of individual human agents, and those theories that emphasise only structural influences. Emerging from this debate are various theories that instead aim to unite the human agent view of the social realm with views that concentrate solely on system structure. It is argued that system dynamics is best viewed as being implicitly grounded in such theories. The main conclusion is therefore that system dynamics can contribute to an important part of social thinking by providing a formal approach for explicating social mechanisms. This conclusion is of general significance for system dynamics. However, the over-arching aim of the two-part paper is to increase the understanding of system dynamics in related disciplines. Four suggestions are therefore offered for how the system dynamics method might be extended further into the social sciences. It is argued that, presented in the right way, the formal yet contingent feedback causality thinking of system dynamics should diffuse widely in the social sciences and make a distinctive and important contribution to them. Felix qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas Happy is he who comes to know the causes of things Virgil - Georgics, Book II, line 490. 29 BCE

Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Observing interactions between children and adolescents and their parents: the effects of anxiety disorder and age

Parental behaviors, most notably overcontrol, lack of warmth and expressed anxiety, have been implicated in models of the development and maintenance of anxiety disorders in children and young people. Theories of normative development have proposed that different parental responses are required to support emotional development in childhood and adolescence, yet age has not typically been taken into account in studies of parenting and anxiety disorders. In order to identify whether associations between anxiety disorder status and parenting differ in children and adolescents, we compared observed behaviors of parents of children (7–10 years) and adolescents (13–16 years) with and without anxiety disorders (n=120), while they undertook a series of mildly anxiety-provoking tasks. Parents of adolescents showed significantly lower levels of expressed anxiety, intrusiveness and warm engagement than parents of children. Furthermore, offspring age moderated the association between anxiety disorder status and parenting behaviors. Specifically, parents of adolescents with anxiety disorders showed higher intrusiveness and lower warm engagement than parents of non-anxious adolescents. A similar relationship between these parenting behaviors and anxiety disorder status was not observed among parents of children. The findings suggest that theoretical accounts of the role of parental behaviors in anxiety disorders in children and adolescents should distinguish between these different developmental periods. Further experimental research to establish causality, however, would be required before committing additional resources to targeting parenting factors within treatment.

Bond graph models of DC-DC converters operating in both CCM and DCM

In this paper, Bond Graphs are employed to develop a novel mathematical model of conventional switched-mode DC-DC converters valid for both continuous and discontinuous conduction modes. A unique causality bond graph model of hybrid models is suggested with the operation of the switch and the diode to be represented by a Modulated Transformer with a binary input and a resistor with fixed conductance causality. The operation of the diode is controlled using an if-then function within the model. The extracted hybrid model is implemented on a Boost and Buck converter with their operations to change from CCM to DCM and to return to CCM. The vector fields of the models show validity in a wide operation area and comparison with the simulation of the converters using PSPICE reveals high accuracy of the proposed model, with the Normalised Root Means Square Error and the Maximum Absolute Error remaining adequately low. The model is also experimentally tested on a Buck topology.

House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Synapses in digital medium: computational investigations of neural basis of anticipation

Anticipation is an emerging concept that can provide a bridge between the deepest philosophical theories about the nature of life and cognition on one hand and the empirical biological sciences steeped in reductionist and Newtonian conception of causality. Three conceptions of anticipation have been emerging from the literature that may be operationalised in a way leading to a viable empirical programme. The discussion of the research into a novel dynamical concept of anticipating synchronisation lends credence to such a possibility and suggests further links between the three anticipation paradigms. A careful progress mindful to the deep philosophical concerns but also respecting empirical evidence will ultimately lead towards unifying theoretical and empirical biological sciences and may offer progress where reductionist science have been so far faltering.

The role of index trading in price formation in the grains and oilseeds markets

We use both Granger-causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger-causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV-based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.

Carbon trading for phosphorus gain: the balance between rhizosphere carboxylates and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis in plant phosphorus acquisition

Two key plant adaptations for phosphorus (P) acquisition are carboxylate exudation into the rhizosphere and mycorrhizal symbioses. These target different soil P resources, presumably with different plant carbon costs. We examined the effect of inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on amount of rhizosphere carboxylates and plant P uptake for 10 species of low-P adapted Kennedia grown for 23 weeks in low-P sand. Inoculation decreased carboxylates in some species (up to 50%), decreased plant dry weight (21%) and increased plant P content (23%). There was a positive logarithmic relationship between plant P content and the amount of rhizosphere citric acid for inoculated and uninoculated plants. Causality was indicated by experiments using sand where little citric acid was lost from the soil solution over 2 h and citric acid at low concentrations desorbed P into the soil solution. Senesced leaf P concentration was often low and P-resorption efficiencies reached >90%. In conclusion, we propose that mycorrhizally mediated resource partitioning occurred because inoculation reduced rhizosphere carboxylates, but increased plant P uptake. Hence, presumably, the proportion of plant P acquired from strongly sorbed sources decreased with inoculation, while the proportion from labile inorganic P increased. Implications for plant fitness under field conditions now require investigation.

Testosterone is associated with self-employment among Australian men

Testosterone has pronounced effects on men’s physiological development and smaller, more nuanced, impacts on their economic behavior. In this study of 1199 Australian adult males, we investigate the relationship between the self-employed and their serum testosterone levels. Because prior studies have identified that testosterone is a hormone that is responsive to external factors (e.g. competition, risk-taking), we explicitly control for omitted variable bias and reverse causality by using an instrumental variable approach. We use insulin as our primary instrument to account for endogeneity between testosterone and self-employment. This is because prior research has identified a relationship between insulin and testosterone but not between insulin and self-employment. Our results show that there is a positive association between total testosterone and self-employment. Robustness checks using bioavailable testosterone and another similar instrument (daily alcohol consumption) confirm this positive finding.

A simplified approach for Chaplygin-type cosmologies

A new class of accelerating cosmological models driven by a one-parameter version of the general Chaplygin-type equation of state is proposed. The simplified version is naturally obtained from causality considerations with basis on the adiabatic sound speed vs plus the observed accelerating stage of the universe. We show that very stringent constraints on the unique free parameter a describing the simplified Chaplygin model can be obtained from a joint analysis involving the latest SNe type la data and the recent Sloan Digital Sky Survey measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). In our analysis we have considered separately the SNe type la gold sample measured by [A.G. Riess et al.. Astrophys. J. 607 (2004) 665] and the supernova legacy survey (SNLS) from [P. Astier et al., Astron. Astrophys. 447 (2006) 31]. At 95.4% (c.l.), we find for BAO + gold sample, 0.91 <= alpha <= 1.0 and Omega(m) = 0.28(-0.048)(+0.043) while BAO + SNLS analysis provides 0.94 <= alpha <= 1.0 and Omega(m) = 0.27(-0.045)(+0.048). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.