On Fermat's principle for causal curves in time oriented Finsler spacetimes

In this work, a version of Fermat's principle for causal curves with the same energy in time orientable Finsler spacetimes is proved. We calculate the second variation of the time arrival functional along a geodesic in terms of the index form associated with the Finsler spacetime Lagrangian. Then the character of the critical points of the time arrival functional is investigated and a Morse index theorem in the context of Finsler spacetime is presented. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4765066]

Causal amplitudes in the Schwinger model at finite temperature

We show, in the imaginary time formalism, that the temperature dependent parts of all the retarded (advanced) amplitudes vanish in the Schwinger model. We trace this behavior to the CPT invariance of the theory and give a physical interpretation of this result in terms of forward scattering amplitudes of on-shell thermal particles.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Mycobacterium Bovis como agente causal da tuberculose humana

O Mycobacterium bovis incluído no complexo Mycobacterium tuberculosis pode infectar várias espécies de animais domésticos e silvestres. Embora acometa principalmente animais da espécie bovina também pode infectar outros mamíferos e inclusive os seres humanos, nos quais determina um quadro clínico indistinguível do causado pelo M. tuberculosis. Em diversos países desenvolvidos, devido à aplicação de rigorosas medidas de controle e consequente redução da prevalência da tuberculose bovina, bem como de infecções em outras espécies de animais pelo M. bovis houve em decréscimo dos níveis de ocorrência desta patologia e o tema passou a ser considerado de menor importância. No entanto, nos países em desenvolvimento, a infecção por M. bovis ainda representa um importante risco para a saúde pública, pois tem sido observada nos animais domésticos, silvestres e em seres humanos. O presente trabalho analisa a importância da infecção pelo Mycobacterium bovis em termos de saúde pública.

Fundamental Dimensions of Social Judgment: Sociability and Morality as Distinct Characteristics of Social Warmth

The present dissertation focuses on the two basic dimensions of social judgment, i.e., warmth and competence. Previous research has shown that warmth and competence emerge as fundamental dimensions both at the interpersonal level and at the group level. Moreover, warmth judgments appear to be primary, reflecting the importance of first assessing others’ intentions before determining the other’s ability to carry out those intentions. Finally, it has been shown that warmth and competence judgments are predicted by perceived economic competition and status, respectively (for a review, see Cuddy, Fiske, & Glick, 2008). Building on this evidence, the present work intends to further explore the role of warmth and competence in social judgment, adopting a finer-grained level of analysis. Specifically, we consider warmth to be a dimension of evaluation that encompasses two distinct characteristics (i.e., sociability and morality) rather than as an undifferentiated dimension (see Leach, Ellemers, & Barreto, 2007). In a similar vein, both economic competition and symbolic competition are taken into account (see Stephan, Ybarra, & Morrison, 2009). In order to highlight the relevance of our empirical research, the first chapter reviews the literature in social psychology that has studied the warmth and competence dimensions. In the second chapter, across two studies, we examine the role of realistic and symbolic threats (akin economic and symbolic competition, respectively) in predicting the perception of sociability and morality of social groups. In study 1, we measure perceived realistic threat, symbolic threat, sociability, and morality with respect to 8 social groups. In study 2, we manipulate the level and type of threat of a fictitious group and measure perceived sociability and morality. The findings show that realistic threat and symbolic threat are differentially related to the sociability and morality components of warmth. Specifically, whereas realistic threat seems to be a stronger predictor of sociability than symbolic threat, symbolic threat emerges as better predictor of morality than realistic threat. Thus, extending prior research, we show that the types of threat are linked to different warmth stereotypes. In the third and the fourth chapter, we examine whether the sociability and morality components of warmth play distinct roles at different stages of group impression formation. More specifically, the third chapter focuses on the information-gathering process. Two studies experimentally investigate which traits are mostly selected when forming impressions about either ingroup or outgroup members. The results clearly show that perceivers are more interested in obtaining information about morality than about sociability when asked to form a global impression about others. The fourth chapter considers more properly the formulation of an evaluative impression. Thus, in the first study participants rate real groups on sociability, morality, and competence. In the second study, participants read an immigration scenario depicting an unfamiliar social group in terms of high (vs. low) morality, sociability, and competence. In both studies, participants are also asked to report their global impression of the group. The results show that global evaluations are better predicted by morality than by sociability and competence trait ascriptions. Taken together the third and the fourth chapters show that the dominance of warmth suggested by previous studies on impression formation might be better explained in terms of a greater effect of one of the two subcomponents (i.e., morality) over the other (i.e., sociability). In the general discussion, we discuss the relevance of our findings for intergroup relation and group perception, as well as for impression formation.

Epidemiology and population genetics of Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of cucurbit powdery mildew

In 2010, 2011 and 2012 growing seasons, the occurrence of the ascomycetes Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of powdery mildew disease, was monitored on cultivated cucurbits located in Bologna and Mantua provinces to determine the epidemiology of the species. To identify the pathogens, both morphological and molecular identifications were performed on infected leaf samples and a Multiplex-PCR was performed to identify the mating type genes of P. fusca isolates. The investigations indicated a temporal succession of the two species with the earlier infections caused by G. orontii, that seems to be the predominant species till the middle of July when it progressively disappears and P. fusca becomes the main species infecting cucurbits till the end of October. The temporal variation is likely due to the different overwintering strategies of the two species instead of climatic conditions. Only chasmothecia of P. fusca were recorded and mating type alleles ratio tended to be 1:1. Considering that only chasmothecia of P. fusca were found, molecular-genetic analysis were carried out to find some evidence of recombination within this species by MLST and AFLP methods. Surprisingly, no variations were observed within isolates for the 8 MLST markers used. According to this result, AFLP analysis showed a high similarity within isolates, with SM similarity coefficient ranging between 0.91-1.00 and also, sequencing of 12 polymorphic bands revealed identity to some gene involved in mutation and selection. The results suggest that populations of P. fusca are likely to be a clonal population with some differences among isolates probably due to agricultural practices such as fungicides treatments and cultivated hosts. Therefore, asexual reproduction, producing a lot of fungal biomass that can be easily transported by wind, is the most common and useful way to the spread and colonization of the pathogen.

Obsessed With Work: A multi-causal and multi-rater approach to workaholism

Workaholism is defined as the combination of two underlying dimensions: working excessively and working compulsively. The present thesis aims at achieving the following purposes: 1) to test whether the interaction between environmental and personal antecedents may enhance workaholism; 2) to develop a questionnaire aimed to assess overwork climate in the workplace; 3) to contrast focal employees’ and coworkers’ perceptions of employees’ workaholism and engagement. Concerning the first purpose, the interaction between overwork climate and person characteristics (achievement motivation, perfectionism, conscientiousness, self-efficacy) was explored on a sample of 333 Dutch employees. The results of moderated regression analyses showed that the interaction between overwork climate and person characteristics is related to workaholism. The second purpose was pursued with two interrelated studies. In Study 1 the Overwork Climate Scale (OWCS) was developed and tested using a principal component analysis (N = 395) and a confirmatory factor analysis (N = 396). Two overwork climate dimensions were distinguished, overwork endorsement and lacking overwork rewards. In Study 2 the total sample (N = 791) was used to explore the association of overwork climate with two types of working hard: work engagement and workaholism. Lacking overwork rewards was negatively associated with engagement, whereas overwork endorsement showed a positive association with workaholism. Concerning the third purpose, using a sample of 73 dyads composed by focal employees and their coworkers, a multitrait-multimethod matrix and a correlated trait-correlated method model, i.e. the CT-C(M–1) model, were examined. Our results showed a considerable agreement between raters on focal employees' engagement and workaholism. In contrast, we observed a significant difference concerning the cognitive dimension of workaholism, working compulsively. Moreover, we provided further evidence for the discriminant validity between engagement and workaholism. Overall, workaholism appears as a negative work-related state that could be better explained by assuming a multi-causal and multi-rater approach.

Body Mass Index and Cancer Risk: The Evidence for Causal Association

Increased body mass index (BMI), as an approximation of body adiposity, is a risk factor for developing several adult malignancies. To quantify these risks, we reported a comprehensive systematic review (Lancet 2008; 371: 569-78) of prospective observational studies determining associations between BMI and risk of incident cancer for 20 cancer types. We demonstrated that associations are: (i) sex-specific; (ii) exist for a wider range of malignancies than previously thought; and (iii) are broadly consistent across geographic populations. In the present paper, we tested these data against the Bradford-Hill criteria of causal association, and argue that the available data support strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence and probably analogy. However, the experimental evidence supporting reversibility is currently lacking, though indirect evidence from longitudinal data in cohort studies and long-term follow-up post-bariatric surgery is emerging. We additionally assessed these data against appropriate adjustment for available confounding factors; measurement error and study design; and residual confounding; and found lack of alternative explanations. We conclude that there is considerable evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk for many cancer types, but in order to establish the role of weight control in cancer prevention, there is a need to develop trial frameworks in which to better test reversibility.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Patent foramen ovale may be causal for the first stroke but unrelated to subsequent ischemic events

Studies with very long follow-up are scarce in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale (PFO). Little is known about the etiology of recurrent cerebrovascular events (CVE) in PFO patients.