Cyclical and Welfare Effects of Public Sector Unions in a Real-Business-Cycle Model

Motivated by the highly-unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly-unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970-2007. The union model is a signifi cant improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously-determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary e ffect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing signi ficantly higher welfare losses.

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

The Effects of Experience on Preference Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics for Public and Quasi-Public Environmental Goods

This paper develop and estimates a model of demand estimation for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two environmental goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience makes consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Mass effects mediate coexistence in competing shrews.

Recent developments in metacommunity theory have raised awareness that processes occurring at regional scales might interfere with local dynamics and affect conditions for the local coexistence of competing species. Four main paradigms are recognized in this context (namely, neutral, patch-dynamics, species-sorting, and mass-effect), which differ according to the role assigned to ecological or life-history differences among competing species, as well as to the relative time scale of regional vs. local dynamics. We investigated the patterns of regional and local coexistence of two species of shrews (Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus) sharing a similar diet (generalist insectivores) over four generations, in a spatially structured habitat at the altitudinal limit of their distributions. Local populations were small, and regional dynamics were strong, with high rates of extinction and recolonization. Niche analysis revealed significant habitat differentiation on a few important variables, including temperature and availability of winter resting sites. In sites suitable for both species, we found instances of local coexistence with no evidence of competitive exclusion. Patterns of temporal succession did not differ from random, with no suggestion of a colonization-competition trade-off. Altogether, our data provide support for the mass-effect paradigm, where regional coexistence is mediated by specialization on different habitat types, and local coexistence by rescue effects from source sites. The strong regional dynamics and demographic stochasticity, together with high dispersal rates, presumably contributed to mass effects by overriding local differences in specific competitive abilities.

Effects of anxiety on visuospatial pattern discrimination and decision-making processes: what can we learn from brain dynamics ?

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Dose-dependent acute and sustained renal effects of the endothelin receptor antagonist avosentan in healthy subjects.

The endothelin receptor antagonist avosentan may cause fluid overload at doses of 25 and 50 mg, but the actual mechanisms of this effect are unclear. We conducted a placebo-controlled study in 23 healthy subjects to assess the renal effects of avosentan and the dose dependency of these effects. Oral avosentan was administered once daily for 8 days at doses of 0.5, 1.5, 5, and 50 mg. The drug induced a dose-dependent median increase in body weight, most pronounced at 50 mg (0.8 kg on day 8). Avosentan did not affect renal hemodynamics or plasma electrolytes. A dose-dependent median reduction in the fractional renal excretion of sodium was found (up to 8.7% at avosentan 50 mg); this reduction was paralleled by a dose-related increase in proximal sodium reabsorption. It is suggested that avosentan dose-dependently induces sodium retention by the kidney, mainly through proximal tubular effects. The potential clinical benefits of avosentan should therefore be investigated at doses of <or= 5 mg.

Effects of unilateral motor cortex lesion on ipsilesional hand's reach and grasp performance in monkeys: relationship with recovery in the contralesional hand.

Manual dexterity, a prerogative of primates, is under the control of the corticospinal (CS) tract. Because 90-95% of CS axons decussate, it is assumed that this control is exerted essentially on the contralateral hand. Consistently, unilateral lesion of the hand representation in the motor cortex is followed by a complete loss of dexterity of the contralesional hand. During the months following lesion, spontaneous recovery of manual dexterity takes place to a highly variable extent across subjects, although largely incomplete. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that after a significant postlesion period, manual performance in the ipsilesional hand is correlated with the extent of functional recovery in the contralesional hand. To this aim, ten adult macaque monkeys were subjected to permanent unilateral motor cortex lesion. Monkeys' manual performance was assessed for each hand during several months postlesion, using our standard behavioral test (modified Brinkman board task) that provides a quantitative measure of reach and grasp ability. The ipsilesional hand's performance was found to be significantly enhanced over the long term (100-300 days postlesion) in six of ten monkeys, with the six exhibiting the best, though incomplete, recovery of the contralesional hand. There was a statistically significant correlation (r = 0.932; P < 0.001) between performance in the ipsilesional hand after significant postlesion period and the extent of recovery of the contralesional hand. This observation is interpreted in terms of different possible mechanisms of recovery, dependent on the recruitment of motor areas in the lesioned and/or intact hemispheres.

Effects of Intermittent Training on Anaerobic Performance and MCT Transporters in Athletes.

This study examined the effects of intermittent hypoxic training (IHT) on skeletal muscle monocarboxylate lactate transporter (MCT) expression and anaerobic performance in trained athletes. Cyclists were assigned to two interventions, either normoxic (N; n = 8; 150 mmHg PIO2) or hypoxic (H; n = 10; ∼3000 m, 100 mmHg PIO2) over a three week training (5×1 h-1h30.week-1) period. Prior to and after training, an incremental exercise test to exhaustion (EXT) was performed in normoxia together with a 2 min time trial (TT). Biopsy samples from the vastus lateralis were analyzed for MCT1 and MCT4 using immuno-blotting techniques. The peak power output (PPO) increased (p<0.05) after training (7.2% and 6.6% for N and H, respectively), but VO2max showed no significant change. The average power output in the TT improved significantly (7.3% and 6.4% for N and H, respectively). No differences were found in MCT1 and MCT4 protein content, before and after the training in either the N or H group. These results indicate there are no additional benefits of IHT when compared to similar normoxic training. Hence, the addition of the hypoxic stimulus on anaerobic performance or MCT expression after a three-week training period is ineffective.

Effects of grapefruit juice on the pharmacokinetics of the enantiomers of methadone

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 is the main CYP isozyme involved in methadone metabolism. We investigated the influence of grapefruit juice, which contains inhibitors of intestinal CYP3A, on the steady-state pharmacokinetics of methadone. METHODS: For 5 days, 8 patients undergoing methadone maintenance treatment received 200 mL water or grapefruit juice 30 minutes before and again together with their daily dose of methadone. Blood sampling for R-, S-, and R,S-methadone plasma determination was performed over a 24-hour period. CYP3A activity was determined by measuring the plasma 1'-hydroxymidazolam/midazolam ratio. RESULTS: A decrease in the midazolam ratio was measured in all patients after grapefruit juice (mean +/- SD before grapefruit juice, 9.3 +/- 5.9; mean +/- SD after grapefruit juice, 3.9 +/- 1.2; P <.05). Grapefruit juice led to a mean 17% increase in the area under the curve extrapolated to 24 hours for both enantiomers of methadone (range, 3% to 29% [P <.005]; range, -4% to 37% [P <.05]; and range, 1% to 32% [P <.01]; for R-, S-, and R,S-methadone, respectively). A similar increase in peak level and decrease in apparent clearance were measured with grapefruit juice, whereas time to peak level, terminal half-life, and apparent volume during the terminal phase of R-, S-, and R,S-methadone were not affected by grapefruit juice. No symptom of overmedication was either detected by the clinical staff or reported by the patients. CONCLUSIONS: Grapefruit juice administration is associated with a modest increase in methadone bioavailability, which is not expected to endanger patients. However, it cannot be excluded that a much stronger effect may occur in some patients, and thus grapefruit juice intake is not recommended during methadone maintenance treatment, in particular in patients initiating such a treatment.

The debate over the effector function of eosinophils in helminth infection: new evidence from studies on the regulation of vaccine immunity by IL-12

The production of Th1-type cytokines is associated with strong cell-mediated immunity while Th2-type cytokines are typically involved in the generation of humoral immune responses. In mice vaccinated a single time (1X) with attenuated cercariae of Schistosoma mansoni, the immunity induced is highly dependent on CD4+ T cells and IFN-gamma. In contrast, mice vaccinated multiple times (3X) have decreased IFN-gamma expression, develop a more dominant Th2-type cytokine response as well as protective antibodies which can passively transfer immunity to naive recipients. Previously, we demonstrated the ability of IL-12, a potent IFN-gamma-inducing cytokine to enhance (1X) schistosome cell-mediated immunity when administered during the period of immunization. More recently, we asked what effects IL-12 would have on the development humoral-based immunity. While multiply-immunized/saline-treated mice demonstrated a 70-80% reduction in parasite burden, 3X/IL-12-vaccinated animals displayed an even more striking >90% reduction in challenge infection, with many mice in the later group demonstrating complete protection. Analysis of pulmonary cytokine mRNA responses demonstrated that control challenged mice elicited a dominant Th2-type response, 3X/saline-vaccinated produced a mixed Th1/Th2-type cytokine response, while 3X/IL-12-immunized animals displayed a dominant Th1-type response. The IL-12-treated group also showed a marked reduction in total serum IgE and tissue eosinophilia while SWAP-specific IgG2a and IgG2b Abs were elevated. Interestingly, animals vaccinated with IL-12 also showed a highly significant increase in total Ig titers specific for IrV-5, a known protective antigen. More importantly, 3X/IL-12 serum alone, when transferred to naive mice reduced worm burdens by over 60% while 3X/saline serum transferred significantly less protection. Nevertheless, animals vaccinated in the presence of IL-12 also develop macrophages with enhanced nitric oxide dependent killing activity against the parasites. Together, these observations suggest that IL-12, initially described as an adjuvant for cell-mediated immunity, may also be used as an adjuvant for promoting both humoral and cell-mediated protective responses.

Effects of gastric bypass and gastric banding on glucose kinetics and gut hormone release.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery markedly improves glucose homeostasis in patients with type 2 diabetes even before any significant weight loss is achieved. Procedures that involve bypassing the proximal small bowel, such as Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP), are more efficient than gastric restriction procedures such as gastric banding (GB). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of RYGBP and GB on postprandial glucose kinetics and gastro-intestinal hormone secretion after an oral glucose load. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: This study was a cross-sectional comparison among non-diabetic, weight-stable women who had undergone RYGBP (n = 8) between 9 and 48 months earlier or GB (n = 6) from 25 to 85 months earlier, and weight- and age-matched control subjects (n = 8). The women were studied over 4 h following ingestion of an oral glucose load. Total glucose and meal glucose kinetics were assessed using glucose tracers and plasma insulin, and gut hormone concentrations were simultaneously monitored. RESULTS: Patients who had undergone RYGBP showed a a more rapid appearance of exogenous glucose in the systemic circulation and a shorter duration of postprandial hyperglycemia than patients who had undergone GB and C. The response in RYGBP patients was characterized by early and accentuated insulin response, enhanced postprandial levels of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and polypeptide YY (PYY), and greater postprandial suppression of ghrelin. DISCUSSION: These findings indicate that RYGBP is associated with alterations in glucose kinetics and glucoregulatory hormone secretion. These alterations are probably secondary to the anatomic rearrangement of the foregut, given the fact that they are not observed after GB. Increased PYY and GLP-1 concentrations and enhanced ghrelin suppression are compatible with reduced food intake after RYGBP.