Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

(Table 1) Abundance of tunicate spicules along the Great Barrier Reef-Queensland Plateau transect

The abundance patterns of tunicate spicules are documented for the Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments at seven sites along the Great Barrier Reef-Queensland Plateau transect. The spatial distribution pattern indicates that tunicate spicules were limited to waters shallower than 900 m. The occurrences of tunicate spicules at Sites 822 and 823 that are deeper than 900 m are ascribed to downslope transport, and their distribution patterns can be used to monitor downslope transport processes. The first common occurrence of tunicate spicules at Sites 822 and 823 around 1.6 Ma may suggest the initiation of the central Great Barrier Reef at this time. The morphology of tunicate spicules varies greatly and appears to be gradational among different forms. Older tunicate assemblages are less diverse than those in younger sediments, presumably because of diagenesis. Tunicate spicules do not appear to be a promising biostratigraphic tool for the Pliocene-Pleistocene.

Pollen, DNA and Vegetation records from surface sediments of lacustrine lakes along a forest tundra - tundra transect at the Taymyr peninsula, northern Siberia

Reliable information of past vegetation changes are important to project future changes, especially for areas undergoing rapid transitioning such as the boreal treeline. The application of detailed sedDNA records has the potential to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes gained mainly from pollen studies of lake sediments. This study investigates sedDNA and pollen records from 31 lakes along a gradient of increasing larch forest cover in northern Siberia (Taymyr Peninsula) and compares them with vegetation field surveys within the lake's catchment. With respect to vegetation richness, sedDNA recorded 114 taxa, about half of them to species level, while pollen analyses identified 43 pollen taxa. Both approaches exceed the 31 taxa revealed by vegetation field surveys of 400 m**2 plots. From north to south, Larix percentages increase, as is consistently recorded by all three methods. Furthermore, tundra sites are separated from forested sites in the plots of the principal component analyses. Comparison of ordination results by Procrustes and Protest analyses yields a significant fit among all compared pairs of records. Despite the overall comparability of sedDNA and pollen analyses certain idiosyncrasies in the compositional signal are observed, such as high percentages of Alnus and Betula in all pollen spectra and high percentages of Salix in all sedDNA spectra. In conclusion, our results from the treeline show that sedDNA analyses perform better than pollen in recording site-specific richness (i.e. presence/absence of certain vegetation taxa in the direct vicinity of the lake) and perform as good as pollen in tracing regional vegetation composition.

Observation of manganese deposits made during the 1936 transect of C/S Lord Kelvin through the Northern Atlantic Ocean

In May and June 1936 Dr. C. S. Piggot of the Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, took a series of 11 deep-sea cores in the North Atlantic Ocean between the Newfoundland banks and the banks off the Irish coast. These cores were taken from the Western Union Telegraph Co.'s cable ship Lord Kelvin with the explosive type of sounding device which Dr. Piggot designed. All but two of these cores (Nos. 8 and 11) are more than 2.43 meters (8 feet) long, and all contain ample material for study. Of the two short cores, No. 8 was taken from the top of the Faraday Hills, as that part of the mid-Atlantic ridge is known, where the material is closely packed and more sandy and consequently more resistant; No. 11 came from a locality where the apparatus apparently landed on volcanic rock that may be part of a submarine lava flow.

Establishing fluxes of carbon dioxide and a transect of pCO2 during the late fall of precipitation driven Northern fjord

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

GPS linked photos of benthic cover transect surveys in Heron Reef

Underwater photo-transect surveys were conducted on September 23-27, 2007 at different sections of the reef flat, reef crest and reef slope in Heron Reef. This survey was done by swimming along pre-defined transect sites and taking a picture of the bottom substrate parallel to the bottom at constant vertical distance (30cm) every two to three metres. A total of 3,586 benthic photos were taken. A floating GPS setup connected to the swimmer/diver by a line enabled recording of coordinates of transect surveys. Approximation of the coordinates for each benthic photo was based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software. Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. The output of this process was an ArcMap point shapefile, a Google Earth KML file and a thumbnail of each benthic photo taken. The data in the ArcMap shapefile and in the Google Earth KML file consisted of the approximated coordinate of each benthic photo taken during the survey. Using the GPS Photo Link extension within the ArcMap environment, opening the ArcMap shapefile will enable thumbnail to be displayed on the associated benthic cover photo whenever hovering with the mouse over a point on the transect. By downloading the GPSPhotoLink software from the www.geospatialexperts.com, and installing it as a trial version the ArcMap exstension will be installed in the ArcMap environment.

Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Lizard Island Reef conducted on December 10-15, 2011

Underwater georeferenced photo-transect surveys were conducted on December 10-15, 2011 at various sections of the reef at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. For this survey a snorkeler or diver swam over the bottom while taking photos of the benthos at a set height using a standard digital camera and towing a GPS in a surface float which logged the track every five seconds. A standard digital compact camera was placed in an underwater housing and fitted with a 16 mm lens which provided a 1.0 m x 1.0 m footprint, at 0.5 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by three fin kicks of the survey diver/snorkeler, which corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. The GPS was placed in a dry-bag and logged the position as it floated at the surface while being towed by the photographer. A total of 5,735 benthic photos were taken. A floating GPS setup connected to the swimmer/diver by a line enabled recording of coordinates of each benthic photo (Roelfsema 2009). Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was conducted based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the GPS coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Benthic or substrate cover data was derived from each photo by randomly placing 24 points over each image using the Coral Point Count for Microsoft Excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned to 1 of 78 cover types, which represented the benthic feature beneath it. Benthic cover composition summary of each photo scores was generated automatically using CPCE program. The resulting benthic cover data of each photo was linked to GPS coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 55 South.

Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef conducted on October 3-7, 2012

Underwater georeferenced photo-transect surveys were conducted on October 3-7, 2012 at various sections of the reef and lagoon at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. For this survey a snorkeler swam while taking photos of the benthos at a set distance from the benthos using a standard digital camera and towing a GPS in a surface float which logged the track every five seconds. A Canon G12 digital camera was placed in a Canon underwater housing and photos were taken at 1 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by three fin kicks of the survey snorkeler, which corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. The GPS was placed in a dry bag and logged the position at the surface while being towed by the photographer (Roelfsema, 2009). A total of 1,265 benthic photos were taken. Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was conducted based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the GPS coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Benthic or substrate cover data was derived from each photo by randomly placing 24 points over each image using the Coral Point Count for Microsoft Excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned to 1 of 79 cover types, which represented the benthic feature beneath it. Benthic cover composition summary of each photo scores was generated automatically using CPCE program. The resulting benthic cover data of each photo was linked to GPS coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 55 South.

Habitat Map for Lizard Island reef, Australia derived from a photo-transect survey field data collected in December 2011 and September/October 2012

An object based image analysis approach (OBIA) was used to create a habitat map of the Lizard Reef. Briefly, georeferenced dive and snorkel photo-transect surveys were conducted at different locations surrounding Lizard Island, Australia. For the surveys, a snorkeler or diver swam over the bottom at a depth of 1-2m in the lagoon, One Tree Beach and Research Station areas, and 7m depth in Watson's Bay, while taking photos of the benthos at a set height using a standard digital camera and towing a surface float GPS which was logging its track every five seconds. The camera lens provided a 1.0 m x 1.0 m footprint, at 0.5 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by fin kicks, and corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was done based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Dominant benthic or substrate cover type was assigned to each photo by placing 24 points random over each image using the Coral Point Count excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned a dominant cover type using a benthic cover type classification scheme containing nine first-level categories - seagrass high (>=70%), seagrass moderate (40-70%), seagrass low (<= 30%), coral, reef matrix, algae, rubble, rock and sand. Benthic cover composition summaries of each photo were generated automatically in CPCe. The resulting benthic cover data for each photo was linked to GPS coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 56 South. The OBIA class assignment followed a hierarchical assignment based on membership rules with levels for "reef", "geomorphic zone" and "benthic community" (above).

Selected soil properties and bacterial abundance in the glacier forefields 'Black Valley Transect' and 'Glacier Transect' on Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica

Antarctic glacier forefields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats, and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and microbial colonization. However, only little is known about the impact of environmental changes on microbial communities and how they develop in connection to shifting habitat characteristics. In this study, using a combination of molecular and geochemical analysis, we determine the structure and development of bacterial communities depending on soil parameters in two different glacier forefields on Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Our results demonstrate that deglaciation-dependent habitat formation, resulting in a gradient in soil moisture, pH and conductivity, leads to an orderly bacterial succession for some groups, for example Cyanobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Deltaproteobacteria in a transect representing 'classical' glacier forefields. A variable bacterial distribution and different composed communities were revealed according to soil heterogeneity in a slightly 'matured' glacier forefield transect, where Gemmatimonadetes, Flavobacteria, Gamma- and Deltaproteobacteria occur depending on water availability and soil depth. Actinobacteria are dominant in both sites with dominance connected to certain trace elements in the glacier forefields.