The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Sorghum Midge Testing Scheme

Scheme provides independant testing and official industry midge resistance rating of pre-commercial sorghum varieities.

Aenny Catzenstein nee Gottschalk in her last years, blind from glaucoma; London.

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Aenny Catzenstein nee Gottschalk, blind from glaucoma, with her daughter Ellen Bernkopf nee Catzenstein; London.

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The development and preliminary testing of an instrument for assessing fatigue self-management outcomes in patients with advanced cancer

Background: Fatigue is one of the most distressing and commonly experienced symptoms in patients with advanced cancer. Although the self-management (SM) of cancer-related symptoms has received increasing attention, no research instrument assessing fatigue SM outcomes for patients with advanced cancer is available. Objectives: to describe the development and preliminary testing of an interviewer administered instrument for assessing the frequency, and perceived levels of effectiveness and self-efficacy associated with fatigue SM behaviors in patients with advanced cancer. Methods: The development and testing of the Self-efficacy in Managing Symptoms Scale- Fatigue Subscale for Patients with Advanced Cancer (SMSFS-A) involved a number of procedures: item-generation using a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews, content validity evaluation using expert panel reviews, and face validity and test-retest reliability evaluation using pilot testing. Results: Initially, 23 items (22 specific behaviors with one global item) were generated from the literature review and semi-structured interviews. After two rounds of expert panel review, the final scale was reduced to 17 items (16 behaviors with one global item). Participants in the pilot test (n=10) confirmed that the questions in this scale were clear and easy to understand. Bland-Altman analysis showed agreement of results over a one-week interval. Conclusions: The SMSFS-A items were generated using multiple sources. This tool demonstrated preliminary validity and reliability. Implications for practice: The SMSFS-A has the potential to be used for clinical and research purposes. Nurses can use this instrument for collecting data to inform the initiation of appropriate fatigue SM support for this population.

Design and testing of stand-specific bucking instructions for use on modern cut-to-length harvesters

This study addresses three important issues in tree bucking optimization in the context of cut-to-length harvesting. (1) Would the fit between the log demand and log output distributions be better if the price and/or demand matrices controlling the bucking decisions on modern cut-to-length harvesters were adjusted to the unique conditions of each individual stand? (2) In what ways can we generate stand and product specific price and demand matrices? (3) What alternatives do we have to measure the fit between the log demand and log output distributions, and what would be an ideal goodness-of-fit measure? Three iterative search systems were developed for seeking stand-specific price and demand matrix sets: (1) A fuzzy logic control system for calibrating the price matrix of one log product for one stand at a time (the stand-level one-product approach); (2) a genetic algorithm system for adjusting the price matrices of one log product in parallel for several stands (the forest-level one-product approach); and (3) a genetic algorithm system for dividing the overall demand matrix of each of the several log products into stand-specific sub-demands simultaneously for several stands and products (the forest-level multi-product approach). The stem material used for testing the performance of the stand-specific price and demand matrices against that of the reference matrices was comprised of 9 155 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) sawlog stems gathered by harvesters from 15 mature spruce-dominated stands in southern Finland. The reference price and demand matrices were either direct copies or slightly modified versions of those used by two Finnish sawmilling companies. Two types of stand-specific bucking matrices were compiled for each log product. One was from the harvester-collected stem profiles and the other was from the pre-harvest inventory data. Four goodness-of-fit measures were analyzed for their appropriateness in determining the similarity between the log demand and log output distributions: (1) the apportionment degree (index), (2) the chi-square statistic, (3) Laspeyres quantity index, and (4) the price-weighted apportionment degree. The study confirmed that any improvement in the fit between the log demand and log output distributions can only be realized at the expense of log volumes produced. Stand-level pre-control of price matrices was found to be advantageous, provided the control is done with perfect stem data. Forest-level pre-control of price matrices resulted in no improvement in the cumulative apportionment degree. Cutting stands under the control of stand-specific demand matrices yielded a better total fit between the demand and output matrices at the forest level than was obtained by cutting each stand with non-stand-specific reference matrices. The theoretical and experimental analyses suggest that none of the three alternative goodness-of-fit measures clearly outperforms the traditional apportionment degree measure. Keywords: harvesting, tree bucking optimization, simulation, fuzzy control, genetic algorithms, goodness-of-fit

Testing the efficacy of low volume herbicide applications on Chromolaena odorata

Siam Weed (Chromoleana odorata) is the target of an eradication program in north Queensland; however some infestations occur on ground inaccessible to high volume, ground based herbicide spray equipment. Four foliar herbicides were applied to dense infestations of mature Siam Weed in March 2009, near Townsville, north Queensland. Low volume, high concentration solutions containing 40 g L-1 a.i. glyphosate, 1.2 g L-1 a.i metsulfuron-methyl, 10 g L-1 a.i. fluroxypyr + 0.7 g L-1 a.i. aminopyralid and 15 g L-1 a.i. triclopyr + 5 g L-1 a.i. picloram + 0.4 g L-1 a.i. aminopyralid were applied using a 5 L backpack and hand gun (or splatter gun). Relatively small amounts (approximately 24-28 mL) of the high concentration solutions were applied to each bush and assessments of the replicated treated and untreated control plots were conducted 76, 207 and 356 days after treatment. These assessments demonstrated that the fluroxypyr and triclopyr based herbicides controlled 96 to 100% of plants. The metsulfuron-methyl and glyphosate based herbicides controlled 40 and 57% of plants respectively 12 months after treatment, when 3% of untreated control plants were dead. The trial demonstrated that this application method and either of two herbicides provides an additional tool for controlling Siam weed in remote areas, which are inaccessible to traditional higher volume foliar herbicide applications. Lower volume herbicide solutions reduce the volume of water and thus the effort needed to effectively treat less accessible infestations.

A simple correction for multiple testing for single-nucleotide polymorphisms in linkage disequilibrium with each other

In this report, we describe a simple correction for multiple testing of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with each other, on the basis of the spectral decomposition (SpD) of matrices of pairwise LD between SNPs. This method provides a useful alternative to more computationally intensive permutation tests. Additionally, output from SNPSpD includes eigenvalues, principal-component coefficients, and factor "loadings" after varimax rotation, enabling the selection of a subset of SNPs that optimize the information in a genomic region.

Mechanical testing of internal fixation devices: A theoretical and practical examination of current methods

Successful healing of long bone fractures is dependent on the mechanical environment created within the fracture, which in turn is dependent on the fixation strategy. Recent literature reports have suggested that locked plating devices are too stiff to reliably promote healing. However, in vitro testing of these devices has been inconsistent in both method of constraint and reported outcomes, making comparisons between studies and the assessment of construct stiffness problematic. Each of the methods previously used in the literature were assessed for their effect on the bending of the sample and concordant stiffness. The choice of outcome measures used in in vitro fracture studies was also assessed. Mechanical testing was conducted on seven hole locked plated constructs in each method for comparison. Based on the assessment of each method the use of spherical bearings, ball joints or similar is suggested at both ends of the sample. The use of near and far cortex movement was found to be more comprehensive and more accurate than traditional centrally calculated inter fragmentary movement values; stiffness was found to be highly susceptible to the accuracy of deformation measurements and constraint method, and should only be used as a within study comparison method. The reported stiffness values of locked plate constructs from in vitro mechanical testing is highly susceptible to testing constraints and output measures, with many standard techniques overestimating the stiffness of the construct. This raises the need for further investigation into the actual mechanical behaviour within the fracture gap of these devices.

Design and flight testing of a bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm for unmanned serial vehicles

There is an increased interest on the use of UAVs for environmental research such as tracking bush fires, volcanic eruptions, chemical accidents or pollution sources. The aim of this paper is to describe the theory and results of a bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm. A method for generating sparse plumes in a virtual environment was also developed. Results indicated the ability of the algorithms to track plumes in 2D and 3D. The system has been tested with hardware in the loop (HIL) simulations and in flight using a CO2 gas sensor mounted to a multi-rotor UAV. The UAV is controlled by the plume tracking algorithm running on the ground control station (GCS).

Biodegradation of 1080: Testing soils in south-eastern Australia for sodium fluoroacetate-degrading micro-organisms

Sodium fluoroacetate (1080) is a vertebrate poison commonly used for the control of vertebrate pests in Australia. Long-term environmental persistence of 1080 from baiting operations has likely nontarget species and environmental impacts and is a matter of public concern. Defluorinating micro-organisms have been detected in soils of Western and central Australia, and Queensland, but not in south-eastern Australia. The presence or absence of defluorinating micro-organisms in soils from south-eastern Australia will assist in determining whether long-term environmental persistence of 1080 is or is not occurring. Soils from the Central West Slopes and Plains and Central Tablelands of New South Wales were sampled to investigate the presence and capability of 1080 defluorinating soil micro-organisms. Thirty-one species of micro-organisms were isolated from soils from each site after 10 days incubation in a 20 mM 1080 solution. Of these, 13 isolates showed measurable defluorinating ability when grown in a 1080 and sterile soil suspension. Two species, the bacteria Micromonospora, and the actinomycete Streptosporangium, have not been previously reported for their defluorinating ability. These results indicate that defluorinating micro-organisms are present in soils in south-eastern Australia, which adds weight to other studies that found that 1080 is subject to microbiological degradative processes following removal from the bait substrate. Soil micro-organism defluorination, in combination with physical breakdown and uptake by plants, indicates that fluoroacetate in soils and natural water ways is unlikely to persist. This has implications for the better informed use of 1080 in pest animal management programmes in south-eastern Australia.