Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: 1. Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. 2. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

A review of climate change and the implementation of marine biodiversity legislation in the United Kingdom

1. Marine legislation, the key means by which the conservation of marine biodiversity is achieved, has been developing since the 1960s. In recent decades, an increasing focus on ‘holistic’ policy development is evident, compared with earlier ‘piecemeal’ sectoral approaches. Important marine legislative tools being used in the United Kingdom, and internationally, include the designation of marine protected areas and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its aim of meeting ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GES) for European seas by 2020. 2. There is growing evidence of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, which may compromise the effectiveness of any legislation intended to promote sustainable marine resource management. 3. A review of key marine biodiversity legislation relevant to the UK shows climate change was not considered in the drafting of much early legislation. Despite the huge increase in knowledge of climate change impacts in recent decades, legislation is still limited in how it takes these impacts into account. There is scope, however, to account for climate change in implementing much of the legislation through (a) existing references to environmental variability; (b) review cycles; and (c) secondary legislation and complementary policy development. 4. For legislation relating to marine protected areas (e.g. the EC Habitats and Birds Directives), climate change has generally not been considered in the site-designation process, or for ongoing management, with the exception of the Marine (Scotland) Act. Given that changing environmental conditions (e.g. rising temperatures and ocean acidification) directly affect the habitats and species that sites are designated for, how this legislation is used to protect marine biodiversity in a changing climate requires further consideration. 5. Accounting for climate change impacts on marine biodiversity in the development and implementation of legislation is vital to enable timely, adaptive management responses. Marine modelling can play an important role in informing management decisions.

Island-coastal and oceanic epipelagic zooplankton biodiversity in the southwestern Indian Ocean

The oceanic Indian Ocean zooplankton species and their distributions have been well described, but the zooplankton of coastal regions, particularly around the oceanic islands, has not been well researched, either taxonomically or experimentally. The environment of the Mascarene region in the southwestern Indian Ocean and zooplankton research that has been carried out there is detailed, along with gaps in our knowledge. Suggestions are given for future research, particularly on the zooplankton species adapted to live in the fluctuating environment of inshore waters, including studies on taxonomy and biodiversity, life cycles, dispersion and genetics. Problems of carrying out taxonomic research are highlighted.

Biodiversity and Biogeography of Chthamalid Barnacles from the North-Eastern Pacific (Crustacea Cirripedia)

The biogeography and ecology of the species of Chthamalus present on the west coast of America are described, using data from 51 localities from Alaska to Panama, together with their zonation on the shore with respect to that of other barnacles. The species present were C. dalli, Pilsbry 1916, C. fissus, Darwin, 1854, C. anisopoma Pilsbry 1916 and four species in the C. panamensis complex. The latter are C. panamensis Pilsbry, 1916, C. hedgecocki, Pitombo & Burton, 2007, C. alani nom. nov. (formerly C. southwardorum Pitombo & Burton, 2007) and C. newmani sp. nov.). These four species were initially separated by enzyme electrophoresis. They could only be partially separated by DNA bar coding but may be separated using morphological characters.

Relationships between biodiversity and the stability of marine ecosystems: comparisons at a European scale using meta-analysis.

The relationship between biodiversity and stability of marine benthic assemblages was investigated using existing data sets (n = 28) covering various spatial (m-km) and temporal (1973-2006) scales in different benthic habitats (emergent rock, rock pools and sedimentary habitats) through meta-analyses. Assemblage stability was estimated by measuring temporal variances of species richness, total abundance (density or % cover) and community species composition and abundance structure (using multivariate analyses). Positive relationships between temporal variability in species number and richness were generally observed at both quadrat (<1 m2) and site (100 m2) scales, while no relationships were observed by multivariate analyses. Positive relationships were also observed at the scale of site between temporal variability in species number and variability in community structure with evenness estimates. This implies that the relationship between species richness or evenness and species richness variability is slightly positive and depends on the scale of observation, suggesting that biodiversity per se is important for the stability of ecosystems. Changes within community assemblages in terms of structure are, however, generally independent of biodiversity, suggesting no effect of diversity, but the potential impact of individual species, and/or environmental factors. Except for sedimentary and rock pool habitats, no relationship was observed between temporal variation of the aggregated variable of total abundances and diversity at either scale. Overall our results emphasise that relationships depend on scale of measurements, type of habitats and the marine systems (North Atlantic and Mediterranean) considered.

The area-independent effects of habitat complexity on biodiversity vary between regions.

Potential explanatory variables often co-vary in studies of species richness. Where topography varies within a survey it is difficult to separate area and habitat-diversity effects. Topographically complex surfaces may contain more species due to increased habitat diversity or as a result of increased area per se. Fractal geometry can be used to adjust species richness estimates to control for increases in area on complex surfaces. Application of fractal techniques to a survey of rocky shores demonstrated an unambiguous area-independent effect of topography on species richness in the Isle of Man. In contrast, variation in species richness in south-west England reflected surface availability alone. Multivariate tests and variation in limpet abundances also demonstrated regional variation in the area-independent effects of topography. Community composition did not vary with increasing surface complexity in south-west England. These results suggest large-scale gradients in the effects of heterogeneity on community processes or demography.

The Holocene British and Irish ancient woodland fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between c. 3000 cal BC and 1000 cal BC (c. 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after c. 2000 cal BC (c. 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood-rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and its hosts and the role played by European glacial refugia.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth’s history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

Sub-fossil Insects and ecosystem dynamics in wetlands; implications for biodiversity and conservation.

We review the uses of fossil insects, particularly Coleoptera (beetles) and Chironomidae (non-biting midges) from ancient deposits to inform the study of wetland ecosystems and their ecological and restoration processes. In particular, we focus on two contrasting ecosystems, drawing upon research undertaken by us on British raised mire peats and shallow lake systems, one an essentially terrestrial ecosystem, the other aquatic, but in which wetland insects play an important and integral part. The study of raised mire peats suggests that faunal stability is a characteristic of these wetland systems, over what appear to be extensive periods of time (up to several millennia), whilst studies of shallow lake ecosystems over recent timescales indicates that faunal instability appears to be more common, usually driven by increasing eutrophication. Drawing upon a series of fossil Coleoptera records spanning several thousand years from Hatfield Moors, south Yorkshire, we reconstruct in some detail the mire’s ontogeny and fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, illustrating the intimate association between substrate, topography and peat development. A comparison between fossil and modern beetle populations indicates that the faunal characteristics of this mire and its adjacent neighbour, Thorne Moors, become established during the early phases of peat development, including its rare endemics, and that the faunal biodiversity on the sites today is dictated by complex site histories. The over-riding characteristic of these faunas is of stability over several thousand years, which has important implications for the restoration of degraded sites, especially those where refugial areas are limited. In contrast, analyses of fossil Chironomidae from shallow lakes allow researchers to track changes in limnological status and while attempts have been made to reconstruct changes in nutrient levels quantitatively, the chironomids respond indirectly to such changes, typically mediated through complex ecosystem dynamics such as changes in fish and/or macrophyte communities. These changes are illustrated via historic chironomid stratigraphies and diversity indices from a range of shallow lakes located across Britain: Slapton Ley, Frensham Great Pond, Fleet Pond, Kyre Pool and Barnes Loch. These sites have shown varying degrees of eutrophication over recent timescales which tends to be associated with a decline in chironomid diversity. While complex functional processes exist within these ecosystems, our evidence suggests that one of the key drivers in the loss of shallow lake chironomid diversity appears to be the loss of aquatic macrophytes. Overall, while chironomids do show a clear response to altered nutrient regimes, multi-proxy reconstructions are recommended for a clear interpretation of past change. We conclude that if we are to have a better understanding of biota at the ecosystem level we need to know more of the complex interactions between different insect groups as well as with other animal and plant communities. A palaeoecological approach is thus crucial in order to assess the role of insect groups in ecosystem processes, both in the recent past and over long time scales, and is essential for wetland managers and conservation organisations involved in long term management and restoration of wetland systems.

Bio-folio: applying portfolio theory to biodiversity

Genes, species and ecosystems are often considered to be assets. The need to ensure a sufficient diversity of this asset is being increasingly recognised today. Asset managers in banks and insurance companies face a similar challenge. They are asked to manage the assets of their investors by constructing efficient portfolios. They deliberately make use of a phenomenon observed in the formation of portfolios: returns are additive, while risks diversify. This phenomenon and its implications are at the heart of portfolio theory. Portfolio theory, like few other economic theories, has dramatically transformed the practical work of banks and insurance companies. Before portfolio theory was developed about 50 years ago, asset managers were confronted with a situation similar to the situation the research on biodiversity faces today. While the need for diversification was generally accepted, a concept that linked risk and return on a portfolio level and showed the value of diversification was missing. Portfolio theory has closed this gap. This article first explains the fundamentals of portfolio theory and transfers it to biodiversity. A large part of this article is then dedicated to some of the implications portfolio theory has for the valuation and management of biodiversity. The last section introduces three development openings for further research.

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.