966 resultados para Binary hypothesis testing


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The network of HIV counseling and testing centers in São Paulo, Brazil is a major source of data used to build epidemiological profiles of the client population. We examined HIV-1 incidence from November 2000 to April 2001, comparing epidemiological and socio-behavioral data of recently-infected individuals with those with long-standing infection. A less sensitive ELISA was employed to identify recent infection. The overall incidence of HIV-1 infection was 0.53/100/year (95% CI: 0.31-0.85/100/year): 0.77/100/year for males (95% CI: 0.42-1.27/100/year) and 0.22/100/ year (95% CI: 0.05-0.59/100/year) for females. Overall HIV-1 prevalence was 3.2% (95% CI: 2.8-3.7%), being 4.0% among males (95% CI: 3.3-4.7%) and 2.1% among females (95% CI: 1.6-2.8%). Recent infections accounted for 15% of the total (95% CI: 10.2-20.8%). Recent infection correlated with being younger and male (p = 0.019). Therefore, recent infection was more common among younger males and older females.

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Background: Rotational osteotomy is frequently indicated to correct excessive femoral anteversion in cerebral palsy patients. Angled blade plate is the standard fixation device used when performed in the proximal femur, but extensile exposure is required for plate accommodation. The authors developed a short locked intramedullary nail to be applied percutaneously in the fixation of femoral rotational osteotomies in children with cerebral palsy and evaluated its mechanical properties. Methods: The study was divided into three stages. In the first part, a prototype was designed and made based on radiographic measurements of the femoral medullary canal of ten-year-old patients. In the second, synthetic femoral models based on rapid-prototyping of 3D reconstructed images of patients with cerebral palsy were obtained and were employed to adjust the nail prototype to the morphological changes observed in this disease. In the third, rotational osteotomies were simulated using synthetic femoral models stabilized by the nail and by the AO-ASIF fixed-angle blade plate. Mechanical testing was done comparing both devices in bending-compression and torsion. Results: The authors observed proper adaptation of the nail to normal and morphologically altered femoral models, and during the simulated osteotomies. Stiffness in bending-compression was significantly higher in the group fixed by the plate (388.97 +/- 57.25 N/mm) than in that fixed by the nail (268.26 +/- 38.51 N/mm) as torsional relative stiffness was significantly higher in the group fixed by the plate (1.07 +/- 0.36 Nm/degrees) than by the nail (0.35 +/- 0.13 Nm/degrees). Conclusions: Although the device presented adequate design and dimension to fit into the pediatric femur, mechanical tests indicated that the nail was less stable than the blade plate in bending-compression and torsion. This may be a beneficial property, and it can be attributed to the more flexible fixation found in intramedullary devices.

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Context. In 2005, Scholz and collaborators discovered, in a proper motion survey, a young brown dwarf SSSPM J1102-3431 (SSSPM J1102) of spectral type M8.5, probable member of the TW Hydrae Association and possible companion of the T Tauri star TWHya. The physical characterization of SSSPM J1102 was based on the hypothesis that it forms a binary system with TWHya. The recent discovery of a probable giant planet with a very short-period inside the TW Hya protoplanetary disk, as well as a disk around SSSPM J1102, make it especially interesting and important to measure well the physical parameters of SSSPM J1102. Aims. Trigonometric parallax and proper motion measurements of SSSPM J1102 are necessary to test for TWA membership and, thus, to determine the mass and age of this young brown dwarf and the possibility that it forms a wide binary system with TW Hya. Methods. Two years of regular observations at the ESO NTT/SUSI2 telescope have enabled us to determine the trigonometric parallax and proper motion of SSSPM J1102. Results. With our accurate distance determination of 55.2(-1.4)(+1.6) pc and proper motions of (-67.2, -14.0) +/- 0.6 mas/yr, we could confirm SSSPM J1102 as a very probable member of TWA. Assuming the TW Hydrae association age of 5-10 Myr, the evolutionary models compared to the photometry of this young brown dwarf indicate a mass of M = 25 +/- 5 M(Jup) and an effective temperature T(eff) = 2550 +/- 100 K. Conclusions. Our parallax and proper motion determination allow us to precisely describe the physical properties of this low mass object and to confirm its TWA membership. Our results indicate that SSSPMJ1102 may be a very wide separation companion of the star TW Hya.

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Context. Unevolved metal-poor stars constitute a fossil record of the early Galaxy, and can provide invaluable information on the properties of the first generations of stars. Binary systems also provide direct information on the stellar masses of their member stars. Aims. The purpose of this investigation is a detailed abundance study of the double-lined spectroscopic binary CS 22876-032, which comprises the two most metal-poor dwarfs known. Methods. We used high-resolution, high-S/N ratio spectra from the UVES spectrograph at the ESO VLT telescope. Long-term radial-velocity measurements and broad-band photometry allowed us to determine improved orbital elements and stellar parameters for both components. We used OSMARCS 1D models and the TURBOSPECTRUM spectral synthesis code to determine the abundances of Li, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co and Ni. We also used the (COBOLD)-B-5 model atmosphere code to compute the 3D abundance corrections, notably for Li and O. Results. We find a metallicity of [Fe/H] similar to -3.6 for both stars, using 1D models with 3D corrections of similar to -0.1 dex from averaged 3D models. We determine the oxygen abundance from the near-UV OH bands; the 3D corrections are large, -1 and -1.5 dex for the secondary and primary respectively, and yield [O/Fe] similar to 0.8, close to the high-quality results obtained from the [OI] 630 nm line in metal-poor giants. Other [alpha/Fe] ratios are consistent with those measured in other dwarfs and giants with similar [Fe/H], although Ca and Si are somewhat low ([X/Fe] less than or similar to 0). Other element ratios follow those of other halo stars. The Li abundance of the primary star is consistent with the Spite plateau, but the secondary shows a lower abundance; 3D corrections are small. Conclusions. The Li abundance in the primary star supports the extension of the Spite Plateau value at the lowest metallicities, without any decrease. The low abundance in the secondary star could be explained by endogenic Li depletion, due to its cooler temperature. If this is not the case, another, yet unknown mechanism may be causing increased scatter in A( Li) at the lowest metallicities.

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In this Letter, we propose a new and model-independent cosmological test for the distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1 + z)(-2)/D(A)(z) = 1, where D(L) and D(A) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. For D(L) we consider two sub-samples of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) taken from Constitution data whereas D(A) distances are provided by two samples of galaxy clusters compiled by De Filippis et al. and Bonamente et al. by combining Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and X-ray surface brightness. The SNe Ia redshifts of each sub-sample were carefully chosen to coincide with the ones of the associated galaxy cluster sample (Delta z < 0.005), thereby allowing a direct test of the DD relation. Since for very low redshifts, D(A)(z) approximate to D(L)(z), we have tested the DD relation by assuming that. is a function of the redshift parameterized by two different expressions: eta(z) = 1 + eta(0)z and eta(z) = 1 +eta(0)z/(1 + z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying a possible departure from the strict validity of the reciprocity relation (eta(0) = 0). In the best scenario (linear parameterization), we obtain eta(0) = -0.28(-0.44)(+0.44) (2 sigma, statistical + systematic errors) for the De Filippis et al. sample (elliptical geometry), a result only marginally compatible with the DD relation. However, for the Bonamente et al. sample (spherical geometry) the constraint is eta(0) = -0.42(-0.34)(+0.34) (3 sigma, statistical + systematic errors), which is clearly incompatible with the duality-distance relation.

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Context. The star HD 87643, exhibiting the ""B[e] phenomenon"", has one of the most extreme infrared excesses for this object class. It harbours a large amount of both hot and cold dust, and is surrounded by an extended reflection nebula. Aims. One of our major goals was to investigate the presence of a companion in HD87643. In addition, the presence of close dusty material was tested through a combination of multi-wavelength high spatial resolution observations. Methods. We observed HD 87643 with high spatial resolution techniques, using the near-IR AMBER/VLTI interferometer with baselines ranging from 60 m to 130 m and the mid-IR MIDI/VLTI interferometer with baselines ranging from 25 m to 65 m. These observations are complemented by NACO/VLT adaptive-optics-corrected images in the K and L-bands, and ESO-2.2m optical Wide-Field Imager large-scale images in the B, V and R-bands. Results. We report the direct detection of a companion to HD 87643 by means of image synthesis using the AMBER/VLTI instrument. The presence of the companion is confirmed by the MIDI and NACO data, although with a lower confidence. The companion is separated by similar to 34 mas with a roughly north-south orientation. The period must be large (several tens of years) and hence the orbital parameters are not determined yet. Binarity with high eccentricity might be the key to interpreting the extreme characteristics of this system, namely a dusty circumstellar envelope around the primary, a compact dust nebulosity around the binary system and a complex extended nebula suggesting past violent ejections.

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Context. Tight binaries discovered in young, nearby associations are ideal targets for providing dynamical mass measurements to test the physics of evolutionary models at young ages and very low masses. Aims. We report the binarity of TWA22 for the first time. We aim at monitoring the orbit of this young and tight system to determine its total dynamical mass using an accurate distance determination. We also intend to characterize the physical properties (luminosity, effective temperature, and surface gravity) of each component based on near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations. Methods. We used the adaptive-optics assisted imager NACO to resolve the components, to monitor the complete orbit and to obtain the relative near-infrared photometry of TWA22 AB. The adaptive-optics assisted integral field spectrometer SINFONI was also used to obtain medium-resolution (R(lambda) = 1500-2000) spectra in JHK bands. Comparison with empirical and synthetic librairies were necessary for deriving the spectral type, the effective temperature, and the surface gravity for each component of the system. Results. Based on an accurate trigonometric distance (17.5 +/- 0.2 pc) determination, we infer a total dynamical mass of 220 +/- 21 M(Jup) for the system. From the complete set of spectra, we find an effective temperature T(eff) = 2900(-200)(+200) K for TWA22A and T(eff) = 2900(-100)(+200) for TWA22 B and surface gravities between 4.0 and 5.5 dex. From our photometry and an M6 +/- 1 spectral type for both components, we find luminosities of log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.11 +/- 0.13 dex and log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.30 +/- 0.16 dex for TWA22 A and B, respectively. By comparing these parameters with evolutionary models, we question the age and the multiplicity of this system. We also discuss a possible underestimation of the mass predicted by evolutionary models for young stars close to the substellar boundary.

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Context. There is growing evidence that a treatment of binarity amongst OB stars is essential for a full theory of stellar evolution. However the binary properties of massive stars - frequency, mass ratio & orbital separation - are still poorly constrained. Aims. In order to address this shortcoming we have undertaken a multiepoch spectroscopic study of the stellar population of the young massive cluster Westerlund 1. In this paper we present an investigation into the nature of the dusty Wolf-Rayet star and candidate binary W239. Methods. To accomplish this we have utilised our spectroscopic data in conjunction with multi-year optical and near-IR photometric observations in order to search for binary signatures. Comparison of these data to synthetic non-LTE model atmosphere spectra were used to derive the fundamental properties of the WC9 primary. Results. We found W239 to have an orbital period of only similar to 5.05 days, making it one of the most compact WC binaries yet identified. Analysis of the long term near-IR lightcurve reveals a significant flare between 2004-6. We interpret this as evidence for a third massive stellar component in the system in a long period (> 6 yr), eccentric orbit, with dust production occuring at periastron leading to the flare. The presence of a near-IR excess characteristic of hot (similar to 1300 K) dust at every epoch is consistent with the expectation that the subset of persistent dust forming WC stars are short (< 1 yr) period binaries, although confirmation will require further observations. Non-LTE model atmosphere analysis of the spectrum reveals the physical properties of the WC9 component to be fully consistent with other Galactic examples. Conclusions. The simultaneous presence of both short period Wolf-Rayet binaries and cool hypergiants within Wd 1 provides compelling evidence for a bifurcation in the post-Main Sequence evolution of massive stars due to binarity. Short period O+OB binaries will evolve directly to the Wolf-Rayet phase, either due to an episode of binary mediated mass loss - likely via case A mass transfer or a contact configuration - or via chemically homogenous evolution. Conversely, long period binaries and single stars will instead undergo a red loop across the HR diagram via a cool hypergiant phase. Future analysis of the full spectroscopic dataset for Wd 1 will constrain the proportion of massive stars experiencing each pathway; hence quantifying the importance of binarity in massive stellar evolution up to and beyond supernova and the resultant production of relativistic remnants.

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Aims. We report the discovery of very shallow (Delta F/F approximate to 3.4 x 10(-4)), periodic dips in the light curve of an active V = 11.7 G9V star observed by the CoRoT satellite, which we interpret as caused by a transiting companion. We describe the 3-colour CoRoT data and complementary ground-based observations that support the planetary nature of the companion. Methods. We used CoRoT colours information, good angular resolution ground-based photometric observations in- and out- of transit, adaptive optics imaging, near-infrared spectroscopy, and preliminary results from radial velocity measurements, to test the diluted eclipsing binary scenarios. The parameters of the host star were derived from optical spectra, which were then combined with the CoRoT light curve to derive parameters of the companion. Results. We examined all conceivable cases of false positives carefully, and all the tests support the planetary hypothesis. Blends with separation >0.40 '' or triple systems are almost excluded with a 8 x 10(-4) risk left. We conclude that, inasmuch we have been exhaustive, we have discovered a planetary companion, named CoRoT-7b, for which we derive a period of 0.853 59 +/- 3 x 10(-5) day and a radius of R(p) = 1.68 +/- 0.09 R(Earth). Analysis of preliminary radial velocity data yields an upper limit of 21 M(Earth) for the companion mass, supporting the finding. Conclusions. CoRoT-7b is very likely the first Super-Earth with a measured radius. This object illustrates what will probably become a common situation with missions such as Kepler, namely the need to establish the planetary origin of transits in the absence of a firm radial velocity detection and mass measurement. The composition of CoRoT-7b remains loosely constrained without a precise mass. A very high surface temperature on its irradiated face, approximate to 1800-2600 K at the substellar point, and a very low one, approximate to 50 K, on its dark face assuming no atmosphere, have been derived.

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Context. Be stars undergo outbursts producing a circumstellar disk from the ejected material. The beating of non-radial pulsations has been put forward as a possible mechanism of ejection. Aims. We analyze the pulsational behavior of the early B0.5IVe star HD 49330 observed during the first CoRoT long run towards the Galactical anticenter (LRA1). This Be star is located close to the lower edge of the beta Cephei instability strip in the HR diagram and showed a 0.03 mag outburst during the CoRoT observations. It is thus an ideal case for testing the aforementioned hypothesis. Methods. We analyze the CoRoT light curve of HD 49330 using Fourier methods and non-linear least square fitting. Results. In this star, we find pulsation modes typical of beta Cep stars (p modes) and SPB stars (g modes) with amplitude variations along the run directly correlated with the outburst. These results provide new clues about the origin of the Be phenomenon as well as strong constraints on the seismic modelling of Be stars.

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Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

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Background: Discussion surrounding the settlement of the New World has recently gained momentum with advances in molecular biology, archaeology and bioanthropology. Recent evidence from these diverse fields is found to support different colonization scenarios. The currently available genetic evidence suggests a ""single migration'' model, in which both early and later Native American groups derive from one expansion event into the continent. In contrast, the pronounced anatomical differences between early and late Native American populations have led others to propose more complex scenarios, involving separate colonization events of the New World and a distinct origin for these groups. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using large samples of Early American crania, we: 1) calculated the rate of morphological differentiation between Early and Late American samples under three different time divergence assumptions, and compared our findings to the predicted morphological differentiation under neutral conditions in each case; and 2) further tested three dispersal scenarios for the colonization of the New World by comparing the morphological distances among early and late Amerindians, East Asians, Australo-Melanesians and early modern humans from Asia to geographical distances associated with each dispersion model. Results indicate that the assumption of a last shared common ancestor outside the continent better explains the observed morphological differences between early and late American groups. This result is corroborated by our finding that a model comprising two Asian waves of migration coming through Bering into the Americas fits the cranial anatomical evidence best, especially when the effects of diversifying selection to climate are taken into account. Conclusions: We conclude that the morphological diversity documented through time in the New World is best accounted for by a model postulating two waves of human expansion into the continent originating in East Asia and entering through Beringia.

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Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

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We consider a binary Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) described by a system of two-dimensional (2D) Gross-Pitaevskii equations with the harmonic-oscillator trapping potential. The intraspecies interactions are attractive, while the interaction between the species may have either sign. The same model applies to the copropagation of bimodal beams in photonic-crystal fibers. We consider a family of trapped hidden-vorticity (HV) modes in the form of bound states of two components with opposite vorticities S(1,2) = +/- 1, the total angular momentum being zero. A challenging problem is the stability of the HV modes. By means of a linear-stability analysis and direct simulations, stability domains are identified in a relevant parameter plane. In direct simulations, stable HV modes feature robustness against large perturbations, while unstable ones split into fragments whose number is identical to the azimuthal index of the fastest growing perturbation eigenmode. Conditions allowing for the creation of the HV modes in the experiment are discussed too. For comparison, a similar but simpler problem is studied in an analytical form, viz., the modulational instability of an HV state in a one-dimensional (1D) system with periodic boundary conditions (this system models a counterflow in a binary BEC mixture loaded into a toroidal trap or a bimodal optical beam coupled into a cylindrical shell). We demonstrate that the stabilization of the 1D HV modes is impossible, which stresses the significance of the stabilization of the HV modes in the 2D setting.

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A search for a sidereal modulation in the MINOS near detector neutrino data was performed. If present, this signature could be a consequence of Lorentz and CPT violation as predicted by the effective field theory called the standard-model extension. No evidence for a sidereal signal in the data set was found, implying that there is no significant change in neutrino propagation that depends on the direction of the neutrino beam in a sun-centered inertial frame. Upper limits on the magnitudes of the Lorentz and CPT violating terms in the standard-model extension lie between 10(-4) and 10(-2) of the maximum expected, assuming a suppression of these signatures by a factor of 10(-17).