Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Commitment to internationalisation : an extension of the internationalisation process model

Notwithstanding the interest over many years by scholars in modeling the internationalization of the firm, the initial transition for the firm from domestic to international operations remains under-researched. We identify the behavioral factors that are important at the pre-internationalization state and discuss how they may interrelate to influence a decision to commit to internationalization through export commencement. We study export commitment by proposing and constructing an index that incorporates the factors that influence a firm’s propensity to commit to export activities. Utilizing the items from this index in a logistic regression analysis, we distinguish between the pre-internationalization characteristics of exporting and non-exporting firms to better understand the key influences in export commitment. Implications are discussed.

Impact of child labor on academic performance : evidence from the program "Edúcame Primero Colombia"

In this study, the effects of different variables of child labor on academic performance are investigated. To this end, 3302 children participating in the child labor eradication program “Edúcame Primero Colombia” were interviewed. The interview format used for the children's enrollment into the program was a template from which socioeconomic conditions, academic performance, and child labor variables were evaluated. The academic performance factor was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The data were analyzed through a logistic regression model that took into account children who engaged in a type of labor (n = 921). The results showed that labor conditions, the number of weekly hours dedicated to work, and the presence of work scheduled in the morning negatively affected the academic performance of child laborers. These results show that the relationship between child labor and academic performance is based on the conflict between these two activities. These results do not indicate a linear and simple relationship associated with the recognition of the presence or absence of child labor. This study has implications for the formulation of policies, programs, and interventions for preventing, eradicating, and attenuating the negative effects of child labor on the social and educational development of children.

Correlates of perceiving human resource management as a 'problem' in smaller firms

In this paper we investigate factors likely to correlate with human resource management (HRM) being perceived as a problem in smaller firms. The owner-manager and firm characteristics identified recognise that managerial ‘problems’ can result from a firm’s phase of growth, as well as the way in which an owner-manager’s capacity and characteristics affect their interpretation of such. From a survey of 1200 smaller firms in south east Melbourne (Australia), we use logistic regression on data from 428 respondents to assess organisational and individual factors correlating with perceiving HRM, broadly defined, to be a problem. The highest odds of this occurring were associated with being a larger manufacturing firm which was in a phase of growth other than diversification and which had a long-tenured manager who based the firm’s competitive success on factors other than the quality of staff. Knowing these correlates means assistance to help solve the perceived ‘problem’ with HRM can be more effectively targeted.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013 : a country earmarked for malaria elimination

Background With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. Results All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of

The topography of multiple drug use among adolescent Australians : findings from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey

Introduction and aims: Despite evidence that many Australian adolescents have considerable experience with various drug types, little is known about the extent to which adolescents use multiple substances. The aim of this study was to examine the degree of clustering of drug types within individuals, and the extent to which demographic and psychosocial predictors are related to cluster membership. Design and method: A sample of 1402 adolescents aged 12-17. years were extracted from the Australian 2007 National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Extracted data included lifetime use of 10 substances, gender, psychological distress, physical health, perceived peer substance use, socioeconomic disadvantage, and regionality. Latent class analysis was used to determine clusters, and multinomial logistic regression employed to examine predictors of cluster membership. Result: There were 3 latent classes. The great majority (79.6%) of adolescents used alcohol only, 18.3% were limited range multidrug users (encompassing alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana), and 2% were extended range multidrug users. Perceived peer drug use and psychological distress predicted limited and extended multiple drug use. Psychological distress was a more significant predictor of extended multidrug use compared to limited multidrug use. Discussion and conclusion: In the Australian school-based prevention setting, a very strong focus on alcohol use and the linkages between alcohol, tobacco and marijuana are warranted. Psychological distress may be an important target for screening and early intervention for adolescents who use multiple drugs.

Evidence of associations between cytokine gene polymorphisms and quality of life in patients with cancer and their family caregivers

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES: To identify latent classes of individuals with distinct quality-of-life (QOL) trajectories, to evaluate for differences in demographic characteristics between the latent classes, and to evaluate for variations in pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine genes between the latent classes. DESIGN: Descriptive, longitudinal study. SETTING: Two radiation therapy departments located in a comprehensive cancer center and a community-based oncology program in northern California. SAMPLE: 168 outpatients with prostate, breast, brain, or lung cancer and 85 of their family caregivers (FCs). METHODS: Growth mixture modeling (GMM) was employed to identify latent classes of individuals based on QOL scores measured prior to, during, and for four months following completion of radiation therapy. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotypes in 16 candidate cytokine genes were tested between the latent classes. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationships among genotypic and phenotypic characteristics and QOL GMM group membership. MAIN RESEARCH VARIABLES: QOL latent class membership and variations in cytokine genes. FINDINGS: Two latent QOL classes were found: higher and lower. Patients and FCs who were younger, identified with an ethnic minority group, had poorer functional status, or had children living at home were more likely to belong to the lower QOL class. After controlling for significant covariates, between-group differences were found in SNPs in interleukin 1 receptor 2 (IL1R2) and nuclear factor kappa beta 2 (NFKB2). For IL1R2, carrying one or two doses of the rare C allele was associated with decreased odds of belonging to the lower QOL class. For NFKB2, carriers with two doses of the rare G allele were more likely to belong to the lower QOL class. CONCLUSIONS: Unique genetic markers in cytokine genes may partially explain interindividual variability in QOL. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING: Determination of high-risk characteristics and unique genetic markers would allow for earlier identification of patients with cancer and FCs at higher risk for poorer QOL. Knowledge of these risk factors could assist in the development of more targeted clinical or supportive care interventions for those identified.

Food insecurity and physical activity among U.S. populations

Objectives: Examine the association between food insecurity (FI) and physical activity (PA) in the U.S. population. Methods: Accelerometry (PAM) and self-report PA (PAQ) data from NHANES 2003-2006 were used. Those aged less than six years or were older than 65 years, pregnant, with physical limitations, or with family income above 350% of the poverty line were excluded. FI was measured by the USDA Household Food Security Survey Module. Crude and adjusted odd ratios were calculated from logistic regression to identify the association between FI and adherence to the PA recommendation. Crude and adjusted coefficients were calculated from linear regression to identify the association between FI and both sedentary and activity minutes. Results: In children, FI was not associated with adherence to PA recommendation measured via PAM or PAQ (p>0.05) but was significantly associated with sedentary minutes (adjusted coefficient=10.74, one-sided p<0.05). Food-insecure children did less moderate-to-vigorous PA than did food-secure children (adjusted coefficient = -5.31, p = 0.032). In adults, FI was significantly associated with PA (adjusted OR=0.722 for PAM and OR=0.839 for PAQ, one-sided p<0.05) but not associated with sedentary minutes (p>0.05) Conclusions: FI children were more sedentary and FI adults were less likely to adhere to the PA recommendation than those without FI.

Household food insecurity is associated with less physical activity among children and adults in the U.S. population

Background Household food insecurity and physical activity are each important public-health concerns in the United States, but the relation between them was not investigated thoroughly. Objective We wanted to examine the association between food insecurity and physical activity in the U.S. population. Methods Physical activity measured by accelerometry (PAM) and physical activity measured by questionnaire (PAQ) data from the NHANES 2003–2006 were used. Individuals aged <6 y or >65 y, pregnant, with physical limitations, or with family income >350% of the poverty line were excluded. Food insecurity was measured by the USDA Household Food Security Survey Module. Adjusted ORs were calculated from logistic regression to identify the association between food insecurity and adherence to the physical-activity guidelines. Adjusted coefficients were obtained from linear regression to identify the association between food insecurity with sedentary/physical-activity minutes. Results In children, food insecurity was not associated with adherence to physical-activity guidelines measured via PAM or PAQ and with sedentary minutes (P > 0.05). Food-insecure children did less moderate to vigorous physical activity than food-secure children (adjusted coefficient = −5.24, P = 0.02). In adults, food insecurity was significantly associated with adherence to physical-activity guidelines (adjusted OR = 0.72, P = 0.03 for PAM; and OR = 0.84, P < 0.01 for PAQ) but was not associated with sedentary minutes (P > 0.05). Conclusion Food-insecure children did less moderate to vigorous physical activity, and food-insecure adults were less likely to adhere to the physical-activity guidelines than those without food insecurity.

Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

Prevalence, predictors, and correlates of supportive care needs among women 3–5 years after a diagnosis of endometrial cancer

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence, sociodemographic and clinical predictors, and physical and psychosocial correlates of unmet needs among women 3–5 years following treatment for endometrial cancer. Methods Women with endometrial cancer completed a survey around the time of diagnosis and again 3–5 years later. The follow-up survey asked women about their physical and psychosocial functioning and supportive care needs (CaSUN). Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression identified the predictors and correlates of women’s unmet needs 3–5 years after diagnosis. Results Of the 629 women who completed the cancer survivors’ unmet needs measure (CaSUN), 24 % (n = 153) women reported one or more unmet supportive care needs in the last month. Unmet needs at 3–5 years post-diagnosis were predicted by younger age (OR = 4.47; 95 % CI: 2.09–9.56) and advanced disease stage at diagnosis (OR = 2.47; 95 % CI: 1.38–4.45) and correlated with greater cancer symptoms (OR = 1.78; 95 % CI: 1.05–3.02), lower limb swelling (OR = 2.50; 95 % CI: 1.51–4.15), symptoms of anxiety (OR = 2.21; 95 % CI: 1.31–3.72), and less availability of social support (OR = 3.42; 95 % CI: 1.92–6.11). Women with a history of comorbidities (OR = 0.47; 95 % CI: 0.27–0.82) and those living in a rural area at the time of diagnosis (OR = 0.56; 95 % CI: 0.34–0.92) were less likely to report unmet needs. Conclusions Sociodemographic, health, and psychosocial factors seem important for identifying women who will or will not have unmet needs several years following endometrial cancer. Longitudinal assessments of people’s needs over the course of their cancer trajectory may be an effective way to identify areas that should receive further attention by health providers.

Machine learning for activity recognition : hip versus wrist data

Problem addressed Wrist-worn accelerometers are associated with greater compliance. However, validated algorithms for predicting activity type from wrist-worn accelerometer data are lacking. This study compared the activity recognition rates of an activity classifier trained on acceleration signal collected on the wrist and hip. Methodology 52 children and adolescents (mean age 13.7 +/- 3.1 year) completed 12 activity trials that were categorized into 7 activity classes: lying down, sitting, standing, walking, running, basketball, and dancing. During each trial, participants wore an ActiGraph GT3X+ tri-axial accelerometer on the right hip and the non-dominant wrist. Features were extracted from 10-s windows and inputted into a regularized logistic regression model using R (Glmnet + L1). Results Classification accuracy for the hip and wrist was 91.0% +/- 3.1% and 88.4% +/- 3.0%, respectively. The hip model exhibited excellent classification accuracy for sitting (91.3%), standing (95.8%), walking (95.8%), and running (96.8%); acceptable classification accuracy for lying down (88.3%) and basketball (81.9%); and modest accuracy for dance (64.1%). The wrist model exhibited excellent classification accuracy for sitting (93.0%), standing (91.7%), and walking (95.8%); acceptable classification accuracy for basketball (86.0%); and modest accuracy for running (78.8%), lying down (74.6%) and dance (69.4%). Potential Impact Both the hip and wrist algorithms achieved acceptable classification accuracy, allowing researchers to use either placement for activity recognition.

Factors influencing bike share membership : an analysis of Melbourne and Brisbane

The number of bike share programs has increased rapidly in recent years and there are currently over 700 programs in operation globally. Australia’s two bike share programs have been in operation since 2010 and have significantly lower usage rates compared to Europe, North America and China. This study sets out to understand and quantify the factors influencing bike share membership in Australia’s two bike share programs located in Melbourne and Brisbane. An online survey was administered to members of both programs as well as a group with no known association with bike share. A logistic regression model revealed several significant predictors of membership including reactions to mandatory helmet legislation, riding activity over the previous month, and the degree to which convenience motivated private bike riding. In addition, respondents aged 18 - 34 and having docking station within 250m of their workplace were found to be statistically significant predictors of bike share membership. Finally, those with relatively high incomes increased the odds of membership. These results provide insight as to the relative influence of various factors impacting on bike share membership in Australia. The findings may assist bike share operators to maximize membership potential and help achieve the primary goal of bike share – to increase the sustainability of the transport system.

Who is seeing the dietitian? we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg

Poor dietary choices are associated with overweight and obesity and the development of chronic conditions. Over 12 million (~60%) Australians are currently overweight or obese. Accredited Practicing Dietitians (APDs) are the experts in nutrition and diet therapy, equipped to provide services and counselling to assist individuals in making dietary modifications to prevent or manage diet-related conditions. However, no existing research has investigated the proportion or characteristics of the Australian population that may be accessing APDs. Data from 25,906 participants in the 2004/05 National Health Survey (NHS) were analysed using logistic regression to identify the sociodemographic and health characteristics of individuals accessing an APD or Nutritionist. Only 0.4% (n = 105) of the sample reported accessing a Dietitian or Nutritionist, this was half the amount accessing a Naturopath. Diabetes Mellitus, cardiovascular disease and obesity were all significantly associated with having seen a Dietitian, and over 90% of those accessing services had a long-term condition. Of the total sample only 10% of those with a diet-related condition had seen an APD or Nutritionist. Household income and education were not associated with accessing an APD. Exploration around the barriers to referral and accessing services may be warranted to assist in enhancing the profile of APDs among the population and other healthcare professionals. The current number of approximately 5000 registered APDs is unlikely to be able to service the proportion of the population who require dietary intervention; further avenues for prevention, rather than acute treatment, and novel strategies for service provision also need to be explored.