Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Gadus morhua length, weight and sperm biological processes, 2010

Ocean acidification, as a consequence of increasing marine pCO2, may have severe effects on the physiology of marine organisms. However, experimental studies remain scarce, in particular concerning fish. While adults will most likely remain relatively unaffected by changes in seawater pH, early life-history stages are potentially more sensitive - particularly the critical stage of fertilization, in which sperm motility plays a central role. In this study, the effects of ocean acidification (decrease of pHT to 7.55) on sperm motility of Baltic cod, Gadus morhua, were assessed. We found no significant effect of decreased pH on sperm speed, rate of change of direction or percent motility for the population of cod analyzed. We predict that future ocean acidification will probably not pose a problem for sperm behavior, and hence fertilization success, of Baltic cod.

Differential impacts of elevated CO2 and acidosis on the energy budget of gill and liver cells from Atlantic cod

Ocean acidification impacts fish and other marine species through increased seawater PCO2 levels (hypercapnia). Knowledge of the physiological mechanisms mediating effects in various tissues of fish is incomplete. Here we tested the effects of extracellular hypercapnia and acidosis on energy metabolism of gill and liver cells of Atlantic cod. Exposure media mimicked blood conditions in vivo, either during normo- or hypercapnia and at control or acidic extracellular pH (pHe). We determined metabolic rate and energy expenditure for protein biosynthesis, Na+/K+-ATPase and H+-ATPase and considered nutrition status by measurements of metabolic rate and protein biosynthesis in media with and without free amino acids (FAA). Addition of FAA stimulated hepatic but not branchial oxygen consumption. Normo- and hypercapnic acidosis as well as hypercapnia at control pHe depressed metabolic stimulation of hepatocytes. In gill cells, acidosis depressed respiration independent of PCO2 and FAA levels. For both cell types, depressed respiration was not correlated with the same reduction in energy allocated to protein biosynthesis or Na+/K+-ATPase. Hepatic energy expenditure for protein synthesis and Na+/K+- ATPase was even elevated at acidic compared to control pHe suggesting increased costs for ion regulation and cel- lular reorganization. Hypercapnia at control pHe strongly reduced oxygen demand of branchial Na+/K+-ATPase with a similar trend for H+-ATPase. We conclude that extracellular acidosis triggers metabolic depression in gill and metabolically stimulated liver cells. Additionally, hypercapnia itself seems to limit capacities for metabolic usage of amino acids in liver cells while it decreases the use and costs of ion regulatory ATPases in gill cells.

Nutrient availability affects the response of the calcifying chlorophyte Halimeda opuntia (L.) J.V. Lamouroux to low pH

Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions cause a decrease in the pH and aragonite saturation state of surface ocean water. As a result, calcifying organisms are expected to suffer under future ocean conditions, but their physiological responses may depend on their nutrient status. Because many coral reefs experience high inorganic nutrient loads or seasonal changes in nutrient availability, reef organisms in localized areas will have to cope with elevated carbon dioxide and changes in inorganic nutrients. Halimeda opuntia is a dominant calcifying primary producer on coral reefs that contributes to coral reef accretion. Therefore, we investigated the carbon and nutrient balance of H. opuntia exposed to elevated carbon dioxide and inorganic nutrients. We measured tissue nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon content as well as the activity of enzymes involved in inorganic carbon uptake and nitrogen assimilation (external carbonic anhydrase and nitrate reductase, respectively). Inorganic carbon content was lower in algae exposed to high CO2, but calcification rates were not significantly affected by CO2 or inorganic nutrients. Organic carbon was positively correlated to external carbonic anhydrase activity, while inorganic carbon showed the opposite correlation. Carbon dioxide had a significant effect on tissue nitrogen and organic carbon content, while inorganic nutrients affected tissue phosphorus and N:P ratios. Nitrate reductase activity was highest in algae grown under elevated CO2 and inorganic nutrient conditions and lowest when phosphate was limiting. In general, we found that enzymatic responses were strongly influenced by nutrient availability, indicating its important role in dictating the local responses of the calcifying primary producer H. opuntia to ocean acidification.

Phenotypical responses of Fucus vesiculosus germlings to warming, acidification, nutrient enrichment and local upwelling under natural fluctuations (July - September 2014)

During summer 2014 (mid-July - mid-September 2014), early life-stage Fucus vesiculosus were exposed to combined ocean acidification and warming (OAW) in the presence and absence of enhanced nutrient levels (OAW x N experiment). Subsequently, F. vesiculosus germlings were exposed to a final upwelling disturbance during 3 days (mid-September 2014). Experiments were performed in the near-natural scenario "Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms" including natural fluctuations in the southwestern Baltic Sea, Kiel Fjord, Germany (54°27 'N, 10°11 'W). Genetically different sibling groups and different levels of genetic diversity were employed to test to which extent genetic variation would result in response variation. The data presented here show the phenotypical response (growth and survival) of the different experimental populations of F. vesiculosus under OAW, nutrient enrichment and the upwelling event. Log effect ratios demonstrate the responses to enhanced OAW and nutrient concentrations relative to the ambient conditons. Carbon, nitrogen content (% DW) and C:N ratios were measured after the exposure of ambient and high nutrient levels. Abiotic conditions the OAW x nutrient experiment and the upwelling event, are shown.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and structural integrity of the coralline algae Lithothamnion glaciale in a laboratory experiment

The uptake of anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide is resulting in a lowering of the carbonate saturation state and a drop in ocean pH. Understanding how marine calcifying organisms such as coralline algae may acclimatize to ocean acidification is important to understand their survival over the coming century. We present the first long-term perturbation experiment on the cold-water coralline algae, which are important marine calcifiers in the benthic ecosystems particularly at the higher latitudes. Lithothamnion glaciale, after three months incubation, continued to calcify even in undersaturated conditions with a significant trend towards lower growth rates with increasing pCO2. However, the major changes in the ultra-structure occur by 589 µatm (i.e. in saturated waters). Finite element models of the algae grown at these heightened levels show an increase in the total strain energy of nearly an order of magnitude and an uneven distribution of the stress inside the skeleton when subjected to similar loads as algae grown at ambient levels. This weakening of the structure is likely to reduce the ability of the alga to resist boring by predators and wave energy with severe consequences to the benthic community structure in the immediate future (50 years).

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the larval development of the spider crab Hyas araneus from different latitudes (54° vs 79°N), 2010

The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, nutrients, and Calcidiscus leptoporus (strain RCC1135) growth rate and calcification rate during experiments, 2012

The coccolithophore Calcidiscus leptoporus was grown in batch culture under nitrogen (N) as well as phosphorus (P) limitation. Growth rate, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate organic nitrogen (PON), and particulate organic phosphorus (POP) production were determined and coccolith morphology was analysed. While PON production decreased by 70% under N-limitation and POP production decreased by 65% under P-limitation, growth rate decreased by 33% under N- as well as P-limitation. POC as well as PIC production (calcification rate) increased by 27% relative to the control under P-limitation, and did not change under N-limitation. Coccolith morphology did not change in response to either P or N limitation. While these findings, supported by a literature survey, suggest that coccolith morphogenesis is not hampered by either P or N limitation, calcification rate might be. The latter conclusion is in apparent contradiction to our data. We discuss the reasons for this inference.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Emiliania huxleyi (strains RCC1256 and NZEH) during experiments, 2011

With respect to their sensitivity to ocean acidification, calcifiers such as the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi have received special attention, as the process of calcification seems to be particularly sensitive to changes in the marine carbonate system. For E. huxleyi, apparently conflicting results regarding its sensitivity to ocean acidification have been published (Iglesias-Rodriguez et al., 2008a; Riebesell et al., 2000). As possible causes for discrepancies, intra-specific variability and different effects of CO2 manipulation methods, i.e. the manipulation of total alkalinity (TA) or total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), have been discussed. While Langer et al. (2009) demonstrate a high degree of intra-specific variability between strains of E. huxleyi, the question whether different CO2 manipulation methods influence the cellular responses has not been resolved yet. In this study, closed TA as well as open and closed DIC manipulation methods were compared with respect to E. huxleyi's CO2-dependence in growth rate, POC- and PIC-production. The differences in the carbonate chemistry between TA and DIC manipulations were shown not to cause any differences in response patterns, while the latter differed between open and closed DIC manipulation. The two strains investigated showed different sensitivities to acidification of seawater, RCC1256 being more negatively affected in growth rates and PIC production than NZEH.

Experiment: Acidified seawater impacts sea urchin larvae pH regulatory systems relevant for calcification

Calcifying echinoid larvae respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry with reduced growth and developmental delay. To date, no information exists on how ocean acidification acts on pH homeostasis in echinoderm larvae. Understanding acid-base regulatory capacities is important because intracellular formation and maintenance of the calcium carbonate skeleton is dependent on pH homeostasis. Using H(+)-selective microelectrodes and the pH-sensitive fluorescent dye BCECF, we conducted in vivo measurements of extracellular and intracellular pH (pH(e) and pH(i)) in echinoderm larvae. We exposed pluteus larvae to a range of seawater CO(2) conditions and demonstrated that the extracellular compartment surrounding the calcifying primary mesenchyme cells (PMCs) conforms to the surrounding seawater with respect to pH during exposure to elevated seawater pCO(2). Using FITC dextran conjugates, we demonstrate that sea urchin larvae have a leaky integument. PMCs and spicules are therefore directly exposed to strong changes in pH(e) whenever seawater pH changes. However, measurements of pH(i) demonstrated that PMCs are able to fully compensate an induced intracellular acidosis. This was highly dependent on Na(+) and HCO(3)(-), suggesting a bicarbonate buffer mechanism involving secondary active Na(+)-dependent membrane transport proteins. We suggest that, under ocean acidification, maintained pH(i) enables calcification to proceed despite decreased pH(e). However, this probably causes enhanced costs. Increased costs for calcification or cellular homeostasis can be one of the main factors leading to modifications in energy partitioning, which then impacts growth and, ultimately, results in increased mortality of echinoid larvae during the pelagic life stage.

The morphological response of Emiliania huxleyi to seawater carbonate chemistry changes: an inter-strain comparison

Four strains of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (RCC1212, RCC1216, RCC1238, RCC1256) were grown in dilute batch culture at four CO2 levels ranging from ~200 µatm to ~1200 µatm. Coccolith morphology was analyzed based on scanning electron micrographs. Three of the four strains did not exhibit a change in morphology over the CO2 range tested. One strain (RCC1256) displayed an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths with increasing CO2 concentration. We conclude that the sensitivity of the coccolith-shaping machinery to carbonate chemistry changes is strain-specific. Although it has been shown before that carbonate chemistry related changes in growth- and calcification rate are strain-specific, there seems to be no consistent correlation between coccolith morphology and growth or calcification rate. We did not observe an increase in the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in RCC1256, indicating that the coccolith-shaping machinery per se is affected by acidification and not the signalling pathway that produces the stop-signal for coccolith growth.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and benthic foraminifera Ammonia sp. mass, size, and growth rate during experiments, 2013

About 30% of the anthropogenically released CO2 is taken up by the oceans; such uptake causes surface ocean pH to decrease and is commonly referred to as ocean acidification (OA). Foraminifera are one of the most abundant groups of marine calcifiers, estimated to precipitate ca. 50 % of biogenic calcium carbonate in the open oceans. We have compiled the state of the art literature on OA effects on foraminifera, because the majority of OA research on this group was published within the last three years. Disparate responses of this important group of marine calcifiers to OA were reported, highlighting the importance of a process-based understanding of OA effects on foraminifera. We cultured the benthic foraminifer Ammonia sp. under a range of carbonate chemistry manipulation treatments to identify the parameter of the carbonate system causing the observed effects. This parameter identification is the first step towards a process-based understanding. We argue that CO3 is the parameter affecting foraminiferal size-normalized weights (SNWs) and growth rates. Based on the presented data, we can confirm the strong potential of Ammonia sp. foraminiferal SNW as a CO3 proxy.

No detectable effect of CO2 on elemental stoichiometry of Emiliania huxleyi in nutrient-limited, acclimated continuous cultures

Effects of CO2 concentration on elemental composition of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were studied in phosphorus-limited, continuous cultures that were acclimated to experimental conditions for 30 d prior to the first sampling. We determined phytoplankton and bacterial cell numbers, nutrients, particulate components like organic carbon (POC), inorganic carbon (PIC), nitrogen (PN), organic phosphorus (POP), transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON), in addition to carbonate system parameters at CO2 levels of 180, 380 and 750 µatm. No significant difference between treatments was observed for any of the measured variables during repeated sampling over a 14 d period. We considered several factors that might lead to these results, i.e. light, nutrients, carbon overconsumption and transient versus steady-state growth. We suggest that the absence of a clear CO2 effect during this study does not necessarily imply the absence of an effect in nature. Instead, the sensitivity of the cell towards environmental stressors such as CO2 may vary depending on whether growth conditions are transient or sufficiently stable to allow for optimal allocation of energy and resources. We tested this idea on previously published data sets where PIC and POC divided by the corresponding cell abundance of E. huxleyi at various pCO2 levels and growth rates were available.