Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts

Identificação dos princípios ativos presentes no extrato etanólico de cereus jamacaru e avaliação em ratos dos possíveis efeitos tóxicos e/ou comportamentais da exposição prolongada

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Controle Adaptativo Robusto para Filtros Ativos de Potência Paralelo

Conventional control strategies used in shunt active power filters (SAPF) employs real-time instantaneous harmonic detection schemes which is usually implements with digital filters. This increase the number of current sensors on the filter structure which results in high costs. Furthermore, these detection schemes introduce time delays which can deteriorate the harmonic compensation performance. Differently from the conventional control schemes, this paper proposes a non-standard control strategy which indirectly regulates the phase currents of the power mains. The reference currents of system are generated by the dc-link voltage controller and is based on the active power balance of SAPF system. The reference currents are aligned to the phase angle of the power mains voltage vector which is obtained by using a dq phase locked loop (PLL) system. The current control strategy is implemented by an adaptive pole placement control strategy integrated to a variable structure control scheme (VS-APPC). In the VS-APPC, the internal model principle (IMP) of reference currents is used for achieving the zero steady state tracking error of the power system currents. This forces the phase current of the system mains to be sinusoidal with low harmonics content. Moreover, the current controllers are implemented on the stationary reference frame to avoid transformations to the mains voltage vector reference coordinates. This proposed current control strategy enhance the performance of SAPF with fast transient response and robustness to parametric uncertainties. Experimental results are showing for determining the effectiveness of SAPF proposed control system

Técnica de controle adaptativo robusto aplicada a filtros ativos de potência e paralelo

The Methods for compensation of harmonic currents and voltages have been widely used since these methods allow to reduce to acceptable levels the harmonic distortion in the voltages or currents in a power system, and also compensate reactive. The reduction of harmonics and reactive contributes to the reduction of losses in transmission lines and electrical machinery, increasing the power factor, reduce the occurrence of overvoltage and overcurrent. The active power filter is the most efficient method for compensation of harmonic currents and voltages. The active power filter is necessary to use current and voltage controllers loop. Conventionally, the current and voltage control loop of active filter has been done by proportional controllers integrative. This work, investigated the use of a robust adaptive control technique on the shunt active power filter current and voltage control loop to increase robustness and improve the performance of active filter to compensate for harmonics. The proposed control scheme is based on a combination of techniques for adaptive control pole placement and variable structure. The advantages of the proposed method over conventional ones are: lower total harmonic distortion, more flexibility, adaptability and robustness to the system. Moreover, the proposed control scheme improves the performance and improves the transient of active filter. The validation of the proposed technique was verified initially by a simulation program implemented in C++ language and then experimental results were obtained using a prototype three-phase active filter of 1 kVA

Efeitos do turno fixo sobre a saúde mental em operadores de petróleo :um estudo de caso em dois ativos produção da Petrobrás

Un conjunto de cambios viene siendo implantado en la Petrobrás procurando que sus unidades de negocios resulten más modernas y competitivas para atender las necesidades del mercado. Dentro de esta perspectiva, un nuevo régimen de trabajo, denominado turno fijo , ha sido implantado en dos activos de producción de la provincia de Rio Grande do Norte. Tal situación originó varios reclamos de los petroleros y, consecuentemente, el interés del SINDIPETRO-RN en obtener una evaluación más precisa de las consecuencias de los mismos. Este estudio, realizado a partir de la demanda sindical de esos trabajadores, ha tenido como objetivo central analizar los efectos del turno fijo sobre la salud mental de los operadores de producción, actualmente lotados en los referidos activos. El estudio ha sido realizado con 39 operadores que representan el 82,9% de la población objeto de este estudio. La muestra ha sido homogénea en cuanto al género, grado de instrucción, edad y tiempo de servicio en la compañía, lo que ha posibilitado un mayor control de las variables y un estudio comparativo entre los dos activos. Para el desarrollo del estudio, se han aplicado los siguientes instrumentos de colecta de datos: una escala de medida probada y validada (QSG-12), un cuestionario abierto, entrevistas individuales y una ficha socio-demográfica. Las respuestas del cuestionario abierto han sido categorizadas mediante la aplicación de análisis de contenido. Los resultados de ese tratamiento y las respuestas del QSG-12 han sido registradas en la forma de banco de datos del SPSS for Windows (Statical Package for social sciense for Windows) para luego procederse con el desarrolllo de los análisis estadísticos. Los principales resultados encontrados en el estudio han sido que la mitad de los participantes de la muestra han presentado resultados de deteriorización de la autoeficacia más elevado que 1,44 (un una escala de 0 a 3) y, en tensión emocional y depresión, el resultado es más elevado que 1,67; la mayoría se da cuenta del aumento de carga de trabajo, revela acentuado sufrimiento con el distanciamiento de la familia, y 58,8% presenta enfermedades psicosomáticas crónicas. La percepción de los operadores sobre el turno fijo e el análisis de éste, conforme el modelo vitamínico de Warr, conducen a la conclusión de que el turno fijo es uno de los factores que está influyendo negativamente en la salud mental de esos trabajadores

Ativos intangíveis (modelo RBV) como recurso estratégico e competitivo: um estudo em hotéis de pequeno porte (zona sul, Natal/RN)

The study aims to analyze the perception of managers on intangible assets as strategic and competitive resources in small hotels in Natal/RN, through the theory of the Resource Based View (RBV). This is a qualitative study of exploratory and descriptive, conducted with managers of the means of hosting small the capital of Rio Grande do Norte through semi-structured interviews, which was applied later, the technique content analysis based on the results of the information obtained in the interviews. Thus, research has shown that managers of small hotels visited (A, B, C) are not sufficient and satisfactory knowledge to set as their unique intangible assets of the company and makes use of them, on an occasional basis, without understanding or in essence understand its true value as a resource that can be used strategically for sustainable competitive advantage in the hotel market in Natal/RN. This means that managers do not know how to create new attributes and use them strategically. And they need to expand their partnerships with stakeholders. Given the importance of the subject of the present research, the information achieved by this analysis may contribute to the provision of information to establish a current situation with regard to the attributed to the knowledge and use of resources (intangible assets) importance as a strategic source and competitive for the internal management of the company by managers and thus, enabling a differential and greater economic profit over time in this segment

Avaliação econômica dos incentivos fiscais e financeiros: uma análise das empresas industriais têxteis localizadas no Rio Grande do Norte, no período de 1999 a 2003

This study has as main objective to verify the effect of the tax and financial incentives granted by the brazilian states, specially in the reduction of ICMS on the investment decision of the entities, which in the last years led to the companies to decide new projects in based on the region that presented the better infrastructure beyond lesser tributary expense. For in such was made an economic valuation of the companies with focus in the beneficiary s optics using an adaptation of the Discounted Cash Flow method to measure the impact of the tax incentives in the value of the companies, this study selected the textile industry segment located in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The results indicated that such incentives created addition in the value of the companies, however the inexistence of incentives would not be enough to a negative decision of investment in the Rio Grande do Norte. The smallest difference between the value with and without incentive observed was 8.9%, and the biggest 31.7%, and the average of value aggregation with the tax incentives represented 18.9%

Utilização de indicadores financeiros e não-financeiros na gestão de hotéis no Rio Grande do Norte: um estudo sob a ótica do Balanced Scorecard

This study presents the results of a research on the use of financial and non-financial performance indicators used by medium and large hotels. The research was conducted in Rio Grande do Norte, a Brazilian State. The objective is to identify the usage of performance measures by these companies. Hotel industry is one of the most important sectors in the Rio Grande do Norte economy. The research takes the Balanced Scorecard as a conceptual framework, since it represents an original contribution to the literature of managerial accounting, for rethinking old issues, pointing out themes that were forgotten or badly interpreted, to discuss the requirements imposed by the economy environment, dominated by competitive companies, and increasing the understanding of the relationship between strategy and operation. The objective of the research is to investigate if the hotel managers make use of a managerial information system or not, when evaluating the performance of their business unit. The research reveals the usage of performance evaluation using a large variety of measures. Among them is worth mention: the usage of accounting profit altogether with the EVA/MVA, the process cycle time, total quality management, process transformation, strategic mission, vision, strategic measures, measures related to feedback, risk, costs, productivity, incomes, customers retention, customer satisfaction and profitability, measures using time as a component, quality of the process, cost of the processes, employees capabilities, information systems, motivation, empowerment and alignment. The research leads to the conclusion that the usage of the deriving concepts of Balanced Scorecard can improve the performance measurement systems used by hotels

A influência do genótipo da ECA sobre a aptidão cardiovascular de jovens do sexo masculino moderadamente ativos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Prevalência de dislipidemia em indivíduos fisicamente ativos durante a infância, adolescência e idade adulta

FUNDAMENTO: A prevalência de dislipidemias vem aumentando em diversas partes do Brasil, porém não é claro ainda quanto de exercício físico é necessário para se obter efeitos benéficos sobre os níveis de lipoproteínas plasmáticas. OBJETIVO: O estudo analisou, em oito cidades do Estado de São Paulo, a associação entre a prática continuada de exercícios físicos ao longo da vida e a ocorrência de dislipidemia na idade adulta. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 2.720 adultos, de ambos os sexos, residentes em oito cidades do Estado de São Paulo. Por meio de entrevista domiciliar, a presença de dislipidemias foi autorreferida e a prática de exercícios físicos foi analisada na infância (7-10 anos), na adolescência (11-17 anos) e na idade adulta (atividades de lazer). No tratamento estatístico, modelos multivariados foram criados com a regressão logística binária. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de dislipidemia foi de 12,2% (IC95%= 11,1%-13,5%) e não houve diferença entre as cidades (p = 0,443). Mulheres (p = 0,001) e obesos (p = 0,001) apresentaram maior taxa de dislipidemia. Exercício físico atual não se associou com a presença de dislipidemia ([> 180 minutos por semana] p = 0,165), porém, a prática de exercício físico, tanto na infância (p = 0,001) como na adolescência (p = 0,001), foi associada com menor ocorrência da doença. Adultos fisicamente ativos em todos os três momentos da vida apresentaram 65% menos chances de reportar dislipidemia (RC = 0,35 [0,15-0,78]). CONCLUSÃO: A prática continuada de exercícios físicos ao longo da vida foi associada com menor ocorrência de dislipidemia entre adultos do Estado de São Paulo.

Comparação do risco de queda em idosos sedentários e ativos por meio da escala de equilíbrio de Berg

O envelhecimento da população é um fenômeno mundial, do qual o Brasil apresenta um dos mais agudos processos. A prática regular de exercícios por idosos pode melhorar a capacidade física, proporcionar ganho de auto-estima e confiança, contribuindo para diminuição do risco de quedas, comuns em idosos. Este estudo visou comparar o risco de quedas entre idosos sedentários e ativos, verificando como a prática de exercício físico se reflete no desempenho dos sujeitos na escala de Berg. Foram avaliados por esse instrumento 70 idosos, divididos em 2 grupos: sedentários (n=35) e ativos (n=35). Os escores médios na escala de Berg dos grupos sedentário e ativo foram 47,7±5,6 pontos e 53,6±3,7, respectivamente (p<0,0001). A análise dos escores evidenciou que o grupo sedentário apresentou 15,6 vezes mais risco de quedas do que o grupo ativo (p=0,002). O desempenho na escala de Berg foi pior no grupo sedentário do que no ativo, sugerindo que a prática regular de atividades físicas pode interferir nesse desempenho e que os sujeitos ativos têm menor risco de queda.

Desempenho cognitivo em diferentes níveis de escolaridade de adultos e idosos ativos

OBJETIVO: Comparar o desempenho cognitivo em diferentes níveis de escolaridade de indivíduos adultos e idosos praticantes de atividade física. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 122 indivíduos sem comprometimento cognitivo, idade entre 46 a 85 anos e escolaridade entre 1 a 15 anos, praticantes de atividade física há mais de 6 meses no Programa de Atividades Físicas e Recreativas para a Terceira Idade. Foi aplicada uma bateria de testes cognitivos para verificar as seguintes variáveis: memória de curto prazo, linguagem, aprendizagem, taxa de esquecimento e funções executivas. RESULTADOS: O teste de Kruskal-Wallis apontou diferenças entre os grupos, com diferentes níveis de escolaridade, apenas para a memória de curto prazo, sendo que o teste de U Mann Whitney demonstra diferença entre o grupo de menor escolaridade (1-4 anos) com o grupo de maior escolaridade (> 12 anos). CONCLUSÃO: Diante disso, sugere-se que adultos e idosos ativos, em diferentes níveis de escolaridade, apresentam um perfil cognitivo semelhante para os seguintes domínios cognitivos: linguagem, aprendizagem, taxa de esquecimento e funções executivas.