Asymmetry and duration dependence in Australian GDP and unemployment

The per iodic structure of business cycles suggests that significant asymmetries are present over different phases of the cycle. This paper uses markov regime-switching models with fixed and duration dependent transition probabilities to directly model expansions, contractions and durations in Australian GDP growth and unemployment growth. Evidence is found of significant asymmetry in growth rates across expansions and contractions for both series. GDP contractions exhibit duration dependence implying that as output recessions age the likelihood of switching into an expansion phase increases. Unemployment growth does not exhibit duration dependence in either phase. Evidence is also presented that non-linearities in unemployment growth are well explained by the asymmetries in the GDP growth cycle. The analysis suggests that recessions are periods of rapid and intense job destruction, that Australian unemployment tends to ratchet up in recessionary periods and, in contrast to US and UK studies, that shocks to Australian unemployment growth are more persistent in recessions than expansions. [E37 C5 C41].

Phase diagram for a class of spin-1/2 Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice, and the linear-chain limits

We study the spin-1/2 Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations, and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual two-sublattice Neel phase, a three-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wave vector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical. [S0163-1829(99)10421-1].

A numerical study of pore-fluid, thermal and mass flow iu fluid-saturated porous rock basins

We present a numerical methodology for the study of convective pore-fluid, thermal and mass flow in fluid-saturated porous rock basins. lit particular, we investigate the occurrence and distribution pattern of temperature gradient driven convective pore-fluid flow and hydrocarbon transport in the Australian North West Shelf basin. The related numerical results have demonstrated that: (1) The finite element method combined with the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is a useful tool for dealing with temperature gradient driven pore-fluid flow and mass transport in fluid-saturated hydrothermal basins; (2) Convective pore-fluid flow generally becomes focused in more permeable layers, especially when the layers are thick enough to accommodate the appropriate convective cells; (3) Large dislocation of strata has a significant influence off the distribution patterns of convective pore;fluid flow, thermal flow and hydrocarbon transport in the North West Shelf basin; (4) As a direct consequence of the formation of convective pore-fluid cells, the hydrocarbon concentration is highly localized in the range bounded by two major faults in the basin.

Theoretical and numerical analyses of convective instability in porous media with upward throughflow

Exact analytical solutions have been obtained for a hydrothermal system consisting of a horizontal porous layer with upward throughflow. The boundary conditions considered are constant temperature, constant pressure at the top, and constant vertical temperature gradient, constant Darcy velocity at the bottom of the layer. After deriving the exact analytical solutions, we examine the stability of the solutions using linear stability theory and the Galerkin method. It has been found that the exact solutions for such a hydrothermal system become unstable when the Rayleigh number of the system is equal to or greater than the corresponding critical Rayleigh number. For small and moderate Peclet numbers (Pe less than or equal to 6), an increase in upward throughflow destabilizes the convective flow in the horizontal layer. To confirm these findings, the finite element method with the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is used to compute the convective cells in such a hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is there an association between normal cognitive functioning and trinucleotide repeat expansion at loci involved in neurodegenerative disorders?

Recent reports have shown neurodegenerative disorders to be associated with abnormal expansions of a CAG trinucleotide repeat allele at various autosomal loci. While normal chromosomes have 14 to 44 repeats, disease chromosomes may have 60 to 84 repeats. The number of CAG repeats on mutant chromosomes correlates with increasing severity of disease or decreasing age at onset of symptoms. Since we are interested in identifying the many quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing brain functioning, we examined the possibility that the number of CAG repeats in the normal size range at these loci are relevant to "normal" neural functioning. We have used 150 pairs of adolescent (aged 16 years) twins and their parents to examine allele size at the MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA loci in heterozygous normal individuals. These are part of a large ongoing project using cognitive and physiological measures to investigate the genetie influences on cognition, and an extensive protocol of tests is employed to assess some of the key components of intellectual functioning. This study selected to examine full-scale psychometric IQ (FSIQ) and a measure of information processing (choice reaction time) and working memory (slow wave amplitude). CAG repeat size was determined on an ABI Genescan system following multiplex PCR amplification. Quantitative genetic analyses were performed to determine QTL effects of MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA on cognitive functioning. Analyses are in progress and will be discussed.

Finite element modelling of three-dimensional convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

We use the finite element method to model three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media when they are heated from below. In particular, we employ the particle-tracking technique to mimic the trajectories of particles in three-dimensional fluid flow problems. The related numerical results demonstrated that: (1) The progressive asymptotic approach procedure, which was previously developed for the finite element modelling of two-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow problems, is equally applicable to the finite element modelling of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below. (2) The perturbation of gravity at different planes has a significant effect on the pattern of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow and therefore, may influence the pattern of orebody formation and mineralization in three-dimensional hydrothermal systems. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability - Mutation in the homeobox gene ARX

Objective: To describe a new syndrome of X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with generalized spasticity and intellectual disability (XMESID) and identify the gene defect underlying this disorder. Methods: The authors studied a family in which six boys over two generations had intractable seizures using a validated seizure questionnaire, clinical examination, and EEG studies. Previous records and investigations were obtained. Information on seizure disorders was obtained on 271 members of the extended family. Molecular genetic analysis included linkage studies and mutational analysis using a positional candidate gene approach. Results: All six affected boys had myoclonic seizures and TCS; two had infantile spasms, but only one had hypsarrhythmia. EEG studies show diffuse background slowing with slow generalized spike wave activity. All affected boys had moderate to profound intellectual disability. Hyperreflexia was observed in obligate carrier women. A late-onset progressive spastic ataxia in the matriarch raises the possibility of late clinical manifestations in obligate carriers. The disorder was mapped to Xp11.2-22.2 with a maximum lod score of 1.8. As recently reported, a missense mutation (1058C>T/P353L) was identified within the homeodomain of the novel human Aristaless related homeobox gene (ARX). Conclusions: XMESID is a rare X-linked recessive myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability in boys. Hyperreflexia is found in carrier women. XMESID is associated with a missense mutation in ARX. This disorder is allelic with X-linked infantile spasms (ISSX; MIM 308350) where polyalanine tract expansions are the commonly observed molecular defect. Mutations of ARX are associated with a wide range of phenotypes; functional studies in the future may lend insights to the neurobiology of myoclonic seizures and infantile spasms.

Folate-sensitive fragile site FRA10A is due to an expansion of a CGG repeat in a novel gene, FRA10AC1, encoding a nuclear protein

Fragile sites appear visually as nonstaining gaps on chromosomes that are inducible by specific cell culture conditions. Expansion of CGG/ CCG repeats has been shown to be the molecular basis of all five folate-sensitive fragile sites characterized molecularly so far, i.e., FRAXA, FRAXE, FRAXF, FRA11B, and FRA16A. In the present study we have refined the localization of the FRA10A folate-sensitive fragile site by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Sequence analysis of a BAC clone spanning FRA10A identified a single, imperfect, but polymorphic CGG repeat that is part of a CpG island in the 5'UTR of a novel gene named FRA10ACl. The number of CGG repeats varied in the population from 8 to 13. Expansions exceeding 200 repeat units were methylated in all FRA10A fragile site carriers tested. The FRA10ACl gene consists of 19 exons and is transcribed in the centromeric direction from the FRA10A repeat. The major transcript of similar to 1450 nt is ubiquitously expressed and codes for a highly conserved protein, FRA10ACl, of unknown function. Several splice variants leading to alternative 3' ends were identified (particularly in testis). These give rise to FRA10ACl proteins with altered COOH-termini. Immunofluorescence analysis of full-length, recombinant EGFP-tagged FRA10ACl protein showed that it was present exclusively in the nucleoplasm. We show that the expression of FRA10A, in parallel to the other cloned folate-sensitive fragile sites, is caused by an expansion and subsequent methylation of an unstable CGG trinucleotide repeat. Taking advantage of three cSNPs within the FRA10ACl gene we demonstrate that one allele of the gene is not transcribed in a FRA10A carrier. Our data also suggest that in the heterozygous state FRA10A is likely a benign folate-sensitive fragile site. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Existence of asymptotically almost automorphic solutions to some abstract partial neutral integro-differential equations

The paper establishes the existence and uniqueness of asymptotically almost automorphic mild solution to an abstract partial neutral integro-differential equation with unbounded delay. An example is given to illustrate our results. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Discrete and continuous models for dry masonry columns

The dynamic response of dry masonry columns can be approximated with finite-difference equations. Continuum models follow by replacing the difference quotients of the discrete model by corresponding differential expressions. The mathematically simplest of these models is a one-dimensional Cosserat theory. Within the presented homogenization context, the Cosserat theory is obtained by making ad hoc assumptions regarding the relative importance of certain terms in the differential expansions. The quality of approximation of the various theories is tested by comparison of the dispersion relations for bending waves with the dispersion relation of the discrete theory. All theories coincide with differences of less than 1% for wave-length-block-height (L/h) ratios bigger than 2 pi. The theory based on systematic differential approximation remains accurate up to L/h = 3 and then diverges rapidly. The Cosserat model becomes increasingly inaccurate for L/h < 2 pi. However, in contrast to the systematic approximation, the wave speed remains finite. In conclusion, considering its relative simplicity, the Cosserat model appears to be the natural starting point for the development of continuum models for blocky structures.

Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease: Cellular Mechanisms Leading Autoimmune Reactivity and Disease

Rheumatic fever (RF) is an autoimmune disease caused by the gram-positive bacteria Streptococcus pyogenes that follows a nontreated throat infection in susceptible children. The disease manifests as polyarthritis, carditis, chorea, erythema marginatum, and/or subcutaneous nodules. Carditis, the most serious complication, occurs in 30% to 45% of RF patients and leads to chronic rheumatic heart disease (RHD), which is characterized by progressive and permanent valvular lesions. In this review, we will focus on the genes that confer susceptibility for developing the disease, as well as the innate and adaptive immune responses against S. pyogenes during the acute rheumatic fever episode that leads to RHD autoimmune reactions. The disease is genetically determined, and some human leukocyte antigen class II alleles are involved with susceptibility. Other single nucleotide polymorphisms for TNF-alpha and mannan-binding lectin genes were reported as associated with RF/RHD. T cells play an important role in RHD heart lesions. Several autoantigens were already identified, including cardiac myosin epitopes, vimentin, and other intracellular proteins. In the heart tissue, antigen-driven oligoclonal T cell expansions were probably the effectors of the rheumatic heart lesions. These cells are CD4(+) and produced inflammatory cytokines (TNF alpha and IFN gamma). Molecular mimicry is the mechanism that mediated the cross-reactions between streptococcal antigens and human proteins. The elucidation of chemokines and their receptors involved with the recruitment of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cells, as well as the function of T regulatory cells in situ will certainly contribute to the delineation of the real picture of the heart lesion process that leads to RHD.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

A small disturbance in the strong vortex flow

A small disturbance in the axisymmetric, bathtub-like flow with strong vorticity is considered and the asymptotic representation of the solution is found. It is shown that if the disturbance is smaller than a certain critical scale, the conventional strong vortex approximation cannot describe the field generated by the disturbance not only in the vicinity of the disturbance but also at the distances much larger than the critical scale. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.