A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 259, June 2014

We estimate the 'fundamental' component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin, Singleton, and Zhu (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2013). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005-2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011

Boutres mascatais francisés : contre-mémoire présenté par le gouvernement de la République Française et concernant le désaccord entre ce gouvernement d'une part et le gouvernement de sa Majesté Britannique d'autre part, sur la sens et la portée de la déclaration du 10 mars 1862 en ce qui touche les boutriers mascatais.

At head of title: Tribunal d'Arbitrage constitué en exécution du protocole signé à Londres le 13 octobre 1904.

Operations and Planning in Sustainable Power Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

Risk exposures and international diversification: Evidence from iShares

We examine the newly developed international diversification instruments–iShares traded on the American Stock Exchange. Given the fact that iShares can be created and redeemed at will, the daily price of an iShare is expected to be equal to the daily portfolio value of the underlying assets in the home-country market. Therefore, theoretically, iShare pricing should be influenced by the risk from the iShare's home-country market and not the risk from the US market, per se. We evaluate the risk exposure of iShare prices to the US market (non-fundamental effect) as well as the home-country market (the fundamental effect). We find that most iShare returns are significantly influenced by and sensitive to the US market risk. Moreover, the US market appears to be the key permanent driving factor and the home-country market is a pronounced transitory driving force for iShare prices. These findings indicate the presence of limits of international arbitrage for iShares. As a result, the international diversification benefits of iShares become questionable.

Water rights for variable supplies

The relative merits of different systems of property rights to allocate water among different extractive uses are evaluated for the case where variability of supply is important. Three systems of property rights are considered. In the first, variable supply is dealt with through the use of water entitlements defined as shares of the total quantity available. In the second, there are two types of water entitlements, one for water with a high security of supply and the other a lower security right for the residual supply. The third is a system of entitlements specified as state-contingent claims. With zero transaction costs, all systems are efficient. In the realistic situation where transaction costs matter, the system based on state-contingent claims is globally optimal, and the system with high-security and lower security entitlements is preferable to the system with share entitlements.

'Seeing the market': Technical analysis in trading styles

Whilst financial markets are not strangers to academic and professional scrutiny, they still remain epistemologically contested. For individuals trying to profit by trading shares, this uncertainty is manifested in the varying trading styles which they are able to utilize. This paper examines one trading style commonly used by non-professional share traders-technical analysis. Using research data obtained from individuals who identify themselves as technical analysts, this paper seeks to explain the ways in which individuals understand and use the technique in an attempt to make trading profits. In particular, four distinct subcategories or ideal types of technical analysis can be identified, each providing an alternative perceptual form for participating in financial markets. Each of these types relies upon a particular method for seeing the market, these visualization techniques highlighting the existence of forms of professional vision (as originally identified by Goodwin (1994)) in the way the trading styles are comprehended and acted upon.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

The trading mechanism, cross listed stocks:A comparison of the Paris Bourse and SEAQ-International

This paper studies the behaviour of returns for a sample of cross-listed stocks, listed on both the Paris Bourse and SEAQ-International in London. The aim of the paper is to discover which market adjusts to fundamental news more quickly, the home market of Paris or SEAQ-International. We find that prices in London adjust to changes in their fundamental value more slowly than Paris prices, despite the ability to quickly arbitrage between the two markets. We suggest that this finding may reflect the type of trading, which takes place in the two markets and differences associated with the reporting of large trades. We also estimate the amount of noise present in the two markets and show that the Paris market is more noisy than London. © 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The new institutionalism in the context of Kosovo's transition:regulatory institutions in contested states

This article explores the new institutionalist literature in political economy in the context of Kosovo's contested statehood, focusing on institutional arbitrage and legitimacy. This article considers both the consequences of institutions for actors' behaviour and the norms that shape this, as well as the factors determining the legitimacy of institutions. In doing so, it combines the new institutionalist theory with documentary and interview material collected during research on energy regulation in one contested state, Kosovo. Rather than singling out one particular variety of "new institutionalism", the article attempts to blend insights from historical (or "political"), rational choice, and sociological institutionalism. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Tax implications of dividend policy

This study examines the tax-arbitrage possibilities on the Budapest Stock Exchange between 1995 and 2007. The theoretical possibility for the arbitrage is the different taxation for different stockholders, for the private investors and for the institutions: the institutions had higher taxation on capital gain while private persons in the whole period had tax-benefits on capital gains. The dynamic clientele model shows, that there is a range of the price drops after dividend payouts which guarantees a risk-free profit for both parties. The research is based on the turnover data from 97 companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. We have tested the significant turnovers around the dividend-dates. The study presents clear evidence that investors continuously did take advantages on the different taxation.

Valószínűség, esély, relatív súlyok. Opciók és reálopciók (Probability, chance, relative weights)

There is a long debate (going back to Keynes) how to interpret the concept of probability in economics, in business decisions, in finance. Iván Bélyácz suggested that the Black–Scholes– Merton analysis of fi nancial derivatives has a contribution to this risk vs. uncertainty debate. This article tries to interpret this suggestion, from the viewpoint of traded options, real options, Arrow–Debreu model, Heath–Jarrow–Morton model, insurance business. The article suggests making clear distinction and using different naming ● when the frequents approach and the statistics is relevant, ● when we just use consequent relative weights during the no-arbitrage pricing, and these weight are just interpreted as probabilities, ● when we just lack the necessary information, and there is a basic uncertainty in the business decision making process. The paper suggests making a sharp distinction between fi nancial derivatives used for market risk management and credit risk type derivatives (CDO, CDS, etc) in the reregulation process of the fi nancial markets.

A kockázat megjelenése a származtatott pénzügyi termékekben (The risk appearing in financial derivatives)

A pénzügyi kockázatok szerepe, modellezése, kezelése az utóbbi évtizedekben vált egyre hangsúlyosabbá az elméletben és a gyakorlatban egyaránt. A 2007-ben kezdődő pénzügyi válság egyik kiváltó oka a kockázatok nem megfelelő felmérése volt. A válság egyik tanulsága, hogy bár a matematika és a fizika hozzájárulása rendkívül mély módszertani apparátust biztosított a kockázatok számszerűsítésére, ezen eredmények pénzügyi alkalmazása csak akkor sikeres, ha pontosan értjük a modellek feltételeit és korlátait. Jelen cikk a pénzügyi derivatívák értékelésének alapelveit, valamint a származtatott ügyletekben megjelenő kockázatokat tekinti át, illetve bemutatja azokat a bizonytalansági tényezőket, amelyek megkérdőjelezik az értékelés objektivitását. / === / The modeling and management of financial risks became one of the most important topics of the last decade both in theory and fi nancial practice. The mismanagement of fi nancial risks can be mentioned among the reasons contributing to the eruption of the recent crisis. In order to use successfully the methodology of mathematics and physics in pricing of derivatives, we have to consider the assumptions and limits of the models. This paper introduces the main concepts – no arbitrage pricing and risk neutral valuation – in derivatives’ pricing, then presents and quantifies the risk of some derivative products. I am arguing that the assumptions of the Black–Scholes and Merton model are injured at several points, so the pricing can not be perfectly cleared from all the risk preferences. All those risks, deriving from the difference of the reality and the model are priced in the volatility parameter in the practice.

Derivatív pénzügyi termékek árdinamikája és az új típusú kamatlábmodellek (Interest rate models and the price processes of financial derivatives)

Ennek a cikknek az a célja, hogy áttekintést adjon annak a folyamatnak néhány főbb állomásáról, amit Black, Scholes és Merton opcióárazásról írt cikkei indítottak el a 70-es évek elején, és ami egyszerre forradalmasította a fejlett nyugati pénzügyi piacokat és a pénzügyi elméletet. / === / This review article compares the development of financial theory within and outside Hungary in the last three decades starting with the Black-Scholes revolution. Problems like the term structure of interest rate volatilities which is in the focus of many research internationally has not received the proper attention among the Hungarian economists. The article gives an overview of no-arbitrage pricing, the partial differential equation approach and the related numerical techniques, like the lattice methods in pricing financial derivatives. The relevant concepts of the martingal approach are overviewed. There is a special focus on the HJM framework of the interest rate development. The idea that the volatility and the correlation can be traded is a new horizon to the Hungarian capital market.