Are we predicting the actual or apparent distribution of temperate marine fishes?

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions.

Corner inlet and Nooramunga habitat mapping project

Deakin University and the University of Tasmania were commissioned by Parks Victoria (PV) to create two updated habitat maps for areas within the Corner Inlet and Nooramunga Marine and Coastal Park and Ramsar area. The team obtained a ground-truth data set using in situ video and still photographs. This dataset was used to develop and assess predictive models of benthic marine habitat distributions incorporating data from both ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite) imagery atmospherically corrected by CSIRO and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) bathymetry. This report describes the results of the mapping effort as well as the methodology used to produce these habitat maps.

Overall accuracies of habitat classifications were good, returning overall accuracies >73 % and kappa values > 0.62 for both study localities. Habitats predicted with highest accuracies included Zosteraceae in Nooramunga (91 %), reef in Corner Inlet (80 %), and bare sediment (no-visible macrobiota/no-visible seagrass classes; both > 76 %). The majority of classification errors were due to the misclassification of areas of sparse seagrass as bare sediment. For the Corner Inlet study locality the no-visible macrobiota (10,698 ha), Posidonia (4,608 ha) and Zosteraceae (4,229 ha) habitat classes covered the most area. In Nooramunga no-visible seagrass (5,538 ha), Zosteraceae (4,060 ha) and wet saltmarsh (1,562 ha) habitat classes were most dominant.

In addition to the commissioned work preliminary change detection analyses were undertaken as part of this project. These analyses indicated shifts in habitat extents in both study localities since the late 1990s/2000. In particular, a post-classification analysis highlighted that there were considerable increases in seagrass habitat (primarily Zosteraceae) throughout the littoral zones and river/creek mouths of both study localities. Further, the numerous channel systems remained stable and were free of seagrass at both times. A substantial net loss of Posidonia in the Corner Inlet locality is likely but requires further investigation due to potential misclassifications between habitats in both the 1998 map (Roob et al. 1998) and the current mapping. While the unsupervised Independent Components Analysis (ICA) change detection technique indicated some changes in habitat extent and distribution, considerable areas of habitat change observed in the post-classification approach are questionable, and may reflect misclassifications rather than real change. A particular example of this is an apparent large decrease in Zosteraceae and increase in Posidonia being related to the classification of Posidonia beds as Zosteraceae in the 1998 mapping. Despite this, we believe that changes indicated by both the ICA and post-classification approaches have a high likelihood of being ‘actual’ change. A pattern of gains and losses of Zosteraceae in the region north of Stockyard channel is an example of this. Further analyses and refinements of approaches in change detection analyses such as would improve confidence in the location and extent of habitat changes over this time period.

This work has been successful in providing new baseline maps using a repeatable method meaning that any future changes in intertidal and shallow water marine habitats may be assessed in a consistent way with quantitative error assessments. In wider use, these maps should also allow improved conservation planning, advance fisheries and catchment management, and progress infrastructure planning to limit impacts on the Inlet environment.

The apparent paradox of colour variation in aposematic poison frogs

Toxic prey warn their predators about their unprofitability with conspicuous colour patterns that are easily learned and remembered by predators if they are uniform within a population. I studied a variable, warningly-coloured poison frog in the wild and found that such variation in colours may be related to mating advantages, parental duties, microhabitat selection and different behavioural strategies.

The effect of microstructure on the decrease of the apparent Young's Modulus in DP 780 steel

Currently, there is a significant effort into developing novel multiphase microstructures to further improve the strength/ductility combination of advanced high-strength steels. To achieve this, the effect of the microstructure on sheet formability needs to be further understood. In this study, the effect of the microstructure on the variation of the elastic modulus in loading and unloading of DP 780 steel has been investigated. Five microstructures with varying volume fractions of ferrite and martensite were generated using different heat treatment cycles. Tension tests were performed to different strain values and the Young’s Modulus during loading and unloading was determined. The test results show that the reduction in unloading modulus with prestrain depends on the volume fraction and hardness of the martensitic phase.

Fertility and apparent genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome

Genetic anticipation is the phenomenon in which age of onset of an inherited disorder decreases in successive generations. Inconsistent evidence suggests that this occurs in Lynch syndrome. A possible cause for apparent anticipation is fecundity bias, which occurs if the disease adversely affects fertility. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of age of diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) on lifetime fertility in Lynch syndrome, and whether this can falsely create the appearance of genetic anticipation. A computer model simulated age of diagnosis of CRC in hypothetical Lynch syndrome carriers and their offspring. The model assumed similar age distribution of CRC across generations (i.e. that there was no true anticipation). Age distribution of CRC diagnosis, and lifetime fertility rates (grouped by age of diagnosis of CRC) were determined from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR). Apparent anticipation was calculated by comparing ages of diagnosis of CRC in affected parent-child pairs. A total of 1,088 patients with CRC were identified from the ACCFR. Total lifetime (cohort) fertility was related to age of diagnosis of CRC (correlation coefficient 0.13, P = 0.0001). In the simulation, apparent anticipation was 1.8 ± 0.54 years (P = 0.0044). Observed apparent anticipation in the ACCFR cohort was 4.8 ± 1.73 years (P = 0.0064). There was no difference in apparent anticipation between the simulate d and observed parent-child pairs (P = 0.89). The appearance of genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome can be falsely created due to changes in fertility.

Losses and recovery of organic carbon from a seagrass ecosystem following disturbance

Seagrasses are among the Earth's most efficient and long-term carbon sinks, but coastal development threatens this capacity. We report new evidence that disturbance to seagrass ecosystems causes release of ancient carbon. In a seagrass ecosystem that had been disturbed 50 years ago, we found that soil carbon stocks declined by 72%, which, according to radiocarbon dating, had taken hundreds to thousands of years to accumulate. Disturbed soils harboured different benthic bacterial communities (according to 16S rRNA sequence analysis), with higher proportions of aerobic heterotrophs compared with undisturbed. Fingerprinting of the carbon (via stable isotopes) suggested that the contribution of autochthonous carbon (carbon produced through plant primary production) to the soil carbon pool was less in disturbed areas compared with seagrass and recovered areas. Seagrass areas that had recovered from disturbance had slightly lower (35%) carbon levels than undisturbed, but more than twice as much as the disturbed areas, which is encouraging for restoration efforts. Slow rates of seagrass recovery imply the need to transplant seagrass, rather than waiting for recovery via natural processes. This study empirically demonstrates that disturbance to seagrass ecosystems can cause release of ancient carbon, with potentially major global warming consequences.

Distribution Of Hydrological Losses For Varying Rainfall And Antecedent Wetness Conditions

Hydrological loss is a vital component in many hydrological models, which are usedin forecasting floods and evaluating water resources for both surface and subsurface flows. Due to the complex and random nature of the rainfall runoff process, hydrological losses are not yet fully understood. Consequently, practitioners often use representative values of the losses for design applications such as rainfall-runoff modelling which has led to inaccurate quantification of water quantities in the resulting applications. The existing hydrological loss models must be revisited and modellers should be encouraged to utilise other available data sets. This study is based on three unregulated catchments situated in Mt. Lofty Ranges of South Australia (SA). The paper focuses on conceptual models for: initial loss (IL), continuing loss (CL) and proportional loss (PL) with rainfall characteristics (total rainfall (TR) and storm duration (D)), and antecedent wetness (AW) conditions. The paper introduces two methods that can be implemented to estimate IL as a function of TR, D and AW. The IL distribution patterns and parameters for the study catchments are determined using multivariate analysis and descriptive statistics. The possibility of generalising the methods and the limitations of this are also discussed. This study will yield improvements to existing loss models and will encourage practitioners to utilise multiple data sets to estimate losses, instead of using hypothetical or representative values to generalise real situations.

Some losses brought out by the WTO agreement for TRIPs

The WTO established two rules concerning the international protection of the TRIPs - trade related intellectual property rights, which includes patents and copyrights. One of these rules is the non-discrimination, which has shown to be efficiency-enhancing in the context of trade tariff reductions. The other is the national-treatment commitment rule. We develop in this paper a simple framework to show that the extended version of this rule - which is nowadays being imposed to members - brings out a loss of economic efficiency and a reduction in the levels of protection of intellectual property rights worldwide. As a consequence, it tends to reduce the investments on Research and Development throughout the world. This exactly contradicts the objectives of the Agreement.

Desenvolvimento de cerâmica vermelha utilizando rejeitos da construção civil

The Industry of the Civil Construction has been one of the sectors that most contribute to the pollution of the environment, due to the great amount of residues generated by the construction, demolition and the extraction of raw material. As a way of minimizing the environmental impacts generated by this industry, some governmental organizations have elaborated laws and measures about the disposal of residues from the building construction (CONAMA - resolution 307). This work has as objective the reutilization of residues compound of sand, concrete, cement, red bricks and blocks of cement and mortar for the production of red ceramic, with the objective of minimizing costs and environmental impacts. The investigated samples contained 0% to 50% of residues in weight, and they were sintered at temperatures of 950°C, 1000°C, 1050°C, 1100°C and 1150°C. After the sinterization, the samples were submitted to tests of absorption of water, linear retraction, resistance to bending, apparent porosity, specific density, XRD and SEM. Satisfactory results were obtained in all studied compositions, with the possible incorporation of up to 50% of residues in ceramic mass without great losses in the mechanical strength, giving better results to the incorporation of 30% of residues in the fabrication of ceramic parts, such as roofing tiles, bricks masonry and pierced bricks