Análise do crescimento económico e do desenvolvimento da Madeira (período de 1997 a 2008)

Nos finais do século XX e na primeira década do século XXI, o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento são uma das questões importantes que se colocam sobre a Região Autónoma da Madeira (RAM)! Após 2 acontecimentos marcantes para o país e para a região, que foram a revolução de 25 de Abril de 1974 e a introdução do regime democrático em Portugal com a entrada em vigor da CRP1 em 25 de Abril de 1976 e a adesão de Portugal em 1 de Janeiro de 1986 à CEE2, actual UE3, que marcaram de forma indelével, quer o país, quer a região, o presente estudo pretende analisar através de um conjunto de indicadores, o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento da RAM face às restantes 6 regiões NUTS II portuguesas. O crescimento económico é analisado através da evolução do PIBpc4 a preços constantes em euros. O desenvolvimento é analisado através de um conjunto de indicadores de natureza económica, social, cultural e ambiental. Serão objecto de análise na medição do desenvolvimento o Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano e as suas componentes, o Poder de Compra per capita e em percentagem e o Índice Sintético de Desenvolvimento Regional e as suas componentes. Posteriormente, analisaremos a convergência (positiva ou negativa) e a divergência (positiva ou negativa) dos indicadores de crescimento e de desenvolvimento da RAM face à média nacional. Finalmente, apresentamos algumas conclusões, tendo em consideração algumas limitações, nomeadamente ao nível dos dados disponíveis. Pretendemos fazer um estudo sobre o crescimento económico e o desenvolvimento da RAM, que seja um ponto de partida para futuros estudos e aprofundamentos destas temáticas.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Guararapes confecções S.A da Empresa familiar ao Grupo Econômico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Tributação, finanças públicas e política fiscal: uma análise sob a óptica do direito e economia

In the Brazilian legal scenario, the study of taxation has traditionally been restricted to positivist analysis, concerned with investigating the formal aspects of the tax legal rule. Despite its relevance to the formation of the national doctrine of tax, such formalist tradition limits the discipline, separating it from reality and the socioeconomic context in which the Tax Law is inserted. Thus, the proposal of the dissertation is to examine the fundamentals and nature of taxation and tax legal rules from the perspective of Law and Economics (Economic Analysis of Law). For this purpose, the work initially reconnects the Tax Law and Science of Finance (or Public Finance) and Fiscal Policy, undertaking not only a legal analysis, but also economic and financial analysis of the theme. The Economics of Public Sector (or Modern Public Finance) will contribute to the research through topics such as market failures and economic theory of taxation, which are essential to an economic approach to Tax Law. The core of the work lies in the application of Law and Economics instruments in the study of taxation, analyzing the effects of tax rules on the economic system. Accordingly, the dissertation examines the fundamental assumptions that make up the Economic Analysis of Law (as the concept of economic efficiency and its relation to equity), relating them to the tax phenomenon. Due to the nature of the Brazilian legal system, any worth investigation or approach, including Law and Economics, could not pass off the Constitution. Thus, the constitutional rules will serve as a limit and a prerequisite for the application of Law and Economics on taxation, particularly the rules related to property rights, freedom, equality and legal certainty. The relationship between taxation and market failures receives prominent role, particularly due to its importance to the Law and Economics, as well as to the role that taxation plays in the correction of these failures. In addition to performing a review of taxation under the approach of Economic Analysis of Law, the research also investigates the reality of Brazilian tax system, applying the concepts developed in relevant cases and issues to the national scene, such as the relationship between taxation and development, the compliance costs of taxation, the tax evasion and the tax enforcement procedure. Given the above, it is intended to lay the groundwork for a general theory of Economic Analysis of Tax Law, contextualizing it with the Brazilian tax system

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

Enigma do paradoxo chinês: uma análise

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Crescimento econômico no Estado de São Paulo: uma análise espacial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O aluno negro e o ensino superior: trajetória histórica, percalços e conquistas (análise do perfil sócio econômico do discente da FCT/UNESP/Presidente Prudente)

Pós-graduação em Educação - FCT

A representação da informação em prontuários de pacientes de hospitais universitários: uma análise à luz da teoria comunicativa da terminologia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise das transformações técnicas produtivas da avicultura de corte em Moçambique: do estado estruturante ao liberalismo econômico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Inspeção periódica de pulverizadores: análise dos erros de calibração e impacto econômico

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Boas práticas agrícolas: análise de viabilidade financeira em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas do Nordeste Mato-Grossense

Segundo dados do PRODES/INPE (2008), de 1988 a 2008, 369.154 km² foram desmatados na Amazônia Legal, uma média anual de 17.578 km². Este processo tem sido impulsionado, principalmente, pela expansão da pecuária e da agricultura. Diversas políticas tem sido criadas para reduzir desmatamento. Sendo estas orientadas, geralmente, por instrumentos de comando e controle. Uma recente inovação, entretanto, tem sido a busca de melhoria da qualidade ambiental em médias e grandes propriedades através da introdução de Boas Práticas Agropecuárias (BPA). Baseado nisso, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se a introdução de BPA em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas de médio e grande porte do nordeste mato-grossense representa uma alternativa viável financeiramente. A pesquisa foi realizada em cinco municípios localizados ao nordeste do estado do Mato Grosso, na bacia do rio Xingu: Água Boa, Canarana, Querência, Bom Jesus do Araguaia e São Félix do Araguaia. Primeiramente, foram levantados dados detalhados das características das atividades na região de estudo, para isso foram entrevistados 40 fazendeiros (20 de pecuária e 20 de soja). A segunda etapa levantou os dados de custo de adoção de boas práticas em 14 propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas pertencentes ao Cadastro de Compromisso Sócio-Ambiental (CCS) da Aliança da Terra (AT)/ Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM). Para análise de viabilidade financeira das Boas Práticas, utilizou-se de três instrumentais: a rentabilidade simples, o valor presente líquido (VPL) e a taxa interna de retorno. Os resultados mostraram que as BPA são passíveis de implementação, mas há uma perda financeira para o produtor quando opta por adotar BPA. No entanto, possibilidades de ganhos com adoção de BPA (como o recebimento por REDD, aumento de produtividade, aumento do preço de venda, dentre outros) podem reduzir estas “perdas” e até igualar os ganhos à produção sem BPA.