Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Good practice for pupils learning English as an additional language; lessons from effective literacy teachers in inner city primary schools.

This article presents observations and discussion of the successful teaching of English to pupils, in English primary schools, for whom English is an additional language (EAL). It draws on research in Year 2 (6/7year old) classes in three inner-city primary schools carried out in 2003 and 2005. Three recognised, effective teachers of literacy were selected for case study; all worked in successful schools where results for literacy, measured by national tests, were in line with or better than national averages. Following analyses of lesson observations and interviews with the teachers, their Headteachers and the EAL co-ordinators in the schools, a number of common elements in their practice emerged. Discussion centres on how these pedagogical features supported effective learning environments for the early literacy development of bilingual children, and on the implications for the practice of teaching English to all pupils.

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

SIZE AS A LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE II: DIRECT SELECTION ON SIZE OR CORRELATED RESPONSE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS?

Evolutionary change in New World Monkey (NWM) skulls occurred primarily along the line of least resistance defined by size (including allometric) variation (g(max)). Although the direction of evolution was aligned with this axis, it was not clear whether this macroevolutionary pattern results from the conservation of within population genetic covariance patterns (long-term constraint) or long-term selection along a size dimension, or whether both, constraints and selection, were inextricably involved. Furthermore, G-matrix stability can also be a consequence of selection, which implies that both, constraints embodied in g(max) and evolutionary changes observed on the trait averages, would be influenced by selection Here, we describe a combination of approaches that allows one to test whether any particular instance of size evolution is a correlated by-product due to constraints (g(max)) or is due to direct selection on size and apply it to NWM lineages as a case study. The approach is based on comparing the direction and amount of evolutionary change produced by two different simulated sets of net-selection gradients (beta), a size (isometric and allometric size) and a nonsize set. Using this approach it is possible to distinguish between the two hypotheses (indirect size evolution due to constraints or direct selection on size), because although both may produce an evolutionary response aligned with g(max), the amount of change produced by random selection operating through the variance/covariance patterns (constraints hypothesis) will be much smaller than that produced by selection on size (selection hypothesis). Furthermore, the alignment of simulated evolutionary changes with g(max) when selection is not on size is not as tight as when selection is actually on size, allowing a statistical test of whether a particular observed case of evolution along the line of least resistance is the result of selection along it or not. Also, with matrix diagonalization (principal components [PC]) it is possible to calculate directly the net-selection gradient on size alone (first PC [PC1]) by dividing the amount of phenotypic difference between any two populations by the amount of variation in PC1, which allows one to benchmark whether selection was on size or not

Entropy-Based Approach to Analyze and Classify Mineral Aggregates

This paper presents an automatic method to detect and classify weathered aggregates by assessing changes of colors and textures. The method allows the extraction of aggregate features from images and the automatic classification of them based on surface characteristics. The concept of entropy is used to extract features from digital images. An analysis of the use of this concept is presented and two classification approaches, based on neural networks architectures, are proposed. The classification performance of the proposed approaches is compared to the results obtained by other algorithms (commonly considered for classification purposes). The obtained results confirm that the presented method strongly supports the detection of weathered aggregates.

Study of metals transfer from environment using teeth as biomonitor

We investigated chronic incorporation of metals in individuals from poor families, living in a small, restrict and allegedly contaminated area in Sao Paulo city, the surroundings of the Guarapiranga dam, responsible for water supply to 25% of the city population. A total of 59 teeth from individuals 7 to 60 years old were collected. The average concentrations of Pb, Cd, Fe, Zn, Mn, Ni and Cr were determined with an Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The concentrations of all metals as function of the individuals` age exhibited a remarkable similarity: peaks between 7 and 10 years and sharply decreasing at higher ages, which could be attributed to alimentary habits and persistence to metals exposure all along the individuals` life span. From all the measured metals, lead and cadmium were a matter of much more concern since their measured values are close to the upper limits of the world wide averages. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-collisional lamprophyric event in Sierra Norte, Cordoba, Argentina: Mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic characteristics

Over 20 lamprophyre dykes, varying in width between a few centimeters and several meters, have been identified in central Sierra Norte - Eastern Pampean Ranges, Cordoba, Argentina. Their mineralogy and chemistry indicate that they are part of the calc-alkaline lamprophyres clan (CAL). They contain phenocrysts of magnesiohomblende +/- augite set in a groundmass of magnesiohornblende, calcic-plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and opaque minerals, which designate them as spessartite-type lamprophyres. Alteration products include chlorite, calcite and iron oxides after malfic phenocrysts, though some are partially replaced by actinolite. Feldspars are replaced by carbonate and clay minerals. The dykes are relatively primitive, and show restricted major element variation (SiO(2) 51.1-55.3 wt.%, Al(2)O(3) 12-16.6 wt.%, total alkalies 1.5-4.7 wt.%), high Mg# (55-77), high Cr contents (27-988 ppm) and moderate to high Ni contents (60-190 ppm). Lamprophyre LILE (e.g. Rb averages 110 ppm, Sr 211-387 ppm, Ba 203-452 ppm) are high relative to HFSE (e.g., Ta 0.2-1.6 ppm, Nb 4-11 ppm, Y 17-21 ppm), and are enriched in LREE (30-70 times chondrite). They are characterized by relatively high (208)Pb/(204)Pb (38.8-39.9), (207)Pb/(204)Pb(similar to 15.7), and (206)Pb/(204)Pb (18.7-20.1), combined with low (epsilon)epsilon(Nd) (-4.69 to -1.52) and a relative moderately high ((87)Sr/(86)Sr)(i) of 0.7055-0.7074. The Rb-Sr whole rock isochron indicates an Early Ordovician age of 485 +/- 25 Ma. The calculated T(DM) (1.7 Ga) suggests that these rocks appear to have originated from a reservoir that was created during a mantle metasomatism event related to the Pampean orogeny. The Sierra Norte lamprophyres show affinities with a subduction-related magma in an active continental margin. Their geochemical and isotopic features suggest a multicomponent source, composed of enriched mantle material variably contaminated by crustal components. The lamprophyric suite emplacement occurred at the dawning stage of the Pampean orogeny, in a regional post-collisional extensional setting developed in the Sierra Norte-Ambargasta batholith (SNAB) in Early Ordovician times. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Archaeological Mounds in Marajo Island in Northern Brazil: A Geological Perspective Integrating Remote Sensing and Sedimentology

Earthen mounds with archaeological artifacts have been well known in Marajo Island since the 19th century. Their documented dimensions are impressive, e.g., up to 20m high, and with areas large as 90 ha. The mounds, locally known as lesos, impose a significant. relief on the very low-lying landscape of this region, which averages 4 to 6 in above present. sea level. These features have been traditionally interpreted as artificial constructions of the Marajoara culture, designed for defense, cemetery purposes, or escape from flooding. Here, we provide sedimentological and geomorphological data that suggest an alternative origin for these structures that is more consistent with their monumental sizes. Rather than artificial, the Marajoara tesos seem to consist of natural morphological features related to late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial, and possibly tidal-influenced, paleochannels and paleobars that became abandoned as depositional conditions changed through dine. Although utilized and modified by the Marajoara since at least 2000 years ago, these earthen mounds contain a significant non-anthropogenically modified sedimentary substratum. Therefore, the large Marajoara tesos are not entirely artificial. Ancient, Marajoara cultures took advantage of these natural, preexisting elevated surfaces to base their communities and develop their activities, locally increasing the sizes of these fluvial landforms. This alternative interpretation suggests less cumulative labor investment, in the construction of the mounds and might. have significant implications for reconstructing the organization of the Marajoara culture. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Discontinuous Galerkin approximation of two-phase flows in heterogeneous porous media with discontinuous capillary pressures

We design and investigate a sequential discontinuous Galerkin method to approximate two-phase immiscible incompressible flows in heterogeneous porous media with discontinuous capillary pressures. The nonlinear interface conditions are enforced weakly through an adequate design of the penalties on interelement jumps of the pressure and the saturation. An accurate reconstruction of the total velocity is considered in the Raviart-Thomas(-Nedelec) finite element spaces, together with diffusivity-dependent weighted averages to cope with degeneracies in the saturation equation and with media heterogeneities. The proposed method is assessed on one-dimensional test cases exhibiting rough solutions, degeneracies, and capillary barriers. Stable and accurate solutions are obtained without limiters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular mass distribution of dextran in Brazilian sugar and insoluble deposits of cachaca

The dextran molecular mass distribution profile in 77 sugar samples from Brazil and twelve insoluble deposits (alcoholic flocks) samples from sugared cachacas (Brazilian sugar cane spirit) is described in terms of number-average molecular mass M,,, weight-average molecular mass M(w), Z-average molecular mass M,, and polydispersity. The analyses were performed by size-exclusion chromatography, using a refractive index detector. In most of the sugar samples, it was possible to identify two major groups of dextrans with Mw averages of 5 x 10(6) and 5 x 10(4) Da. Based on the evaluated parameters, the dextran distribution profile is about the same in samples analyzed over five seasons, and, therefore, it is likely that the Brazilian product pattern will not change very much over the years. In insoluble deposits from sugared cachacas, dextrans with Mw values in the order of the 10(5) Da were the most frequent ones, being present in 58% of the samples. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personalized Communications : A Cross Media tool for the future

Personalized communication is when the marketing message is adapted to each individual by using information from a databaseand utilizing it in the various, different media channels available today. That gives the marketer the possibility to create a campaign that cuts through today’s clutter of marketing messages and gets the recipients attention. PODi is a non-profit organization that was started with the aim of contributing knowledge in the field of digital printingtechnologies. They have created a database of case studies showing companies that have successfully implemented personalizedcommunication in their marketing campaigns. The purpose of the project was therefore to analyze PODi case studies with the main objective of finding out if/how successfully the PODi-cases have been and what made them so successful. To collect the data found in the PODi cases the authors did a content analysis with a sample size of 140 PODi cases from the year 2008 to 2010. The study was carried out by analyzing the cases' measurable ways of success: response rate, conversion rate, visited PURL (personalized URL:s) and ROI (Return On Investment). In order to find out if there were any relationships to be found between the measurable result and what type of industry, campaign objective and media vehicle that was used in the campaign, the authors put up different research uestions to explore that. After clustering and merging the collected data the results were found to be quite spread but shows that the averages of response rates, visited PURL and conversion rates were consistently very high. In the study the authors also collected and summarized what the companies themselves claim to be the reasons for success with their marketing campaigns. The resultshows that the creation of a personalized campaign is complex and dependent on many different variables. It is for instance ofgreat importance to have a well thought-out plan with the campaign and to have good data and insights about the customer in order to perform creative personalization. It is also important to make it easy for the recipient to reply, to use several media vehicles for multiple touch points and to have an attractive and clever design.

Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) : uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro de ações

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar a fundamentação teórica e efetuar uma aplicação prática de uma das mais importantes descobertas no campo das finanças: o modelo de precificação de ativos de capital padrão, denominado de Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM). Na realização da aplicação prática, comparou-se a performance entre os retornos dos investimentos exigidos pelo referido modelo e os realmente obtidos. Foram analisadas cinco ações com a maior participação relativa na carteira teórica do Ibovespa e com retornos publicados de junho de 1998 a maio de 2001. Os dados foram obtidos da Economática da UFRGS e testados utilizando-se o Teste-t (duas amostras em par para médias) na ferramenta MS Excel. Os resultados foram tabelados e analisados, de onde se concluiu que, estatisticamente, com índice de confiança de 95%, não houve diferença de performance entre os retornos esperados e os realmente obtidos dos ativos objeto desta dissertação, no período estudado.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.