Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for childhood myopia:findings from the NICER study

PURPOSE. We explored risk factors for myopia in 12- to 13-year-old children in Northern Ireland (NI). METHODS. Stratified random sampling was performed to obtain representation of schools and children. Cycloplegia was achieved using cyclopentolate hydrochloride 1%. Distance autorefraction was measured using the Shin-Nippon SRW-5000 device. Height and weight were measured. Parents and children completed a questionnaire, including questions on parental history of myopia, sociodemographic factors, childhood levels of near vision, and physical activity to identify potential risk factors for myopia. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent ≤0.50 diopters (D) in either eye. RESULTS. Data from 661 white children aged 12-to 13-years showed that regular physical activity was associated with a lower estimated prevalence of myopia compared to sedentary lifestyles (odds ratio [OR] = 0.46 adjusted for age, sex, deprivation score, family size, school type, urbanicity; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23–0.90; P for trend = 0.027). The odds of myopia were more than 2.5 times higher among children attending academically-selective schools (adjusted OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.48–4.78) compared to nonacademically-selective schools. There was no evidence of an effect of urban versus nonurban environment on the odds of myopia. Compared to children with no myopic parents, children with one or both parents being myopic were 2.91 times (95% CI, 1.54–5.52) and 7.79 times (95% CI, 2.93– 20.67) more likely to have myopia, respectively. CONCLUSIONS. In NI children, parental history of myopia and type of schooling are important determinants of myopia. The association between myopia and an environmental factor, such as physical activity levels, may provide insight into preventive strategies.

Giants and dwarfs:the multilevel lobbying strategies of national interest organizations

The article addresses the bias in interest representation within the EU by examining the lobbying strategies of national interest organisations within the EU’s multilevel political system. Both our theoretical framework, which includes the determinants of a national interest organisation's decision to act at the EU level, and the data analysis from the INTEREURO Multi-Level Governance Module (MLG) (www.intereuro.eu) reveal three main findings. Firstly, the greatest differentiation among interest organisations (IOs) appears to be between those IOs from the older member states (Germany, the UK and the Netherlands), which exhibit above-average levels of activity, and those from the newer EU member states (Sweden, Slovenia), which exhibit below-average levels of activity. Secondly, the variations in IO activity levels are much greater from country to country than from one policy field to another. Thirdly, although the IOs from all five countries in our study are more likely to employ media and publishing strategies (information politics) than to mobilise their members and supporters (protest politics), we can still observe national patterns in their selection of strategies and in the intensity of their instrumentalisation.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus) movement and feeding behaviour during experiments, 2011

Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

Elevated CO2 affects predator-prey interactions through altered performance

Recent research has shown that exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) affects how fishes perceive their environment, affecting behavioral and cognitive processes leading to increased prey mortality. However, it is unclear if increased mortality results from changes in the dynamics of predator-prey interactions or due to prey increasing activity levels. Here we demonstrate that ocean pCO2 projected to occur by 2100 significantly effects the interactions of a predator-prey pair of common reef fish: the planktivorous damselfish Pomacentrus amboinensis and the piscivorous dottyback Pseudochromis fuscus. Prey exposed to elevated CO2 (880 µatm) or a present-day control (440 µatm) interacted with similarly exposed predators in a cross-factored design. Predators had the lowest capture success when exposed to elevated CO2 and interacting with prey exposed to present-day CO2. Prey exposed to elevated CO2 had reduced escape distances and longer reaction distances compared to prey exposed to present-day CO2 conditions, but this was dependent on whether the prey was paired with a CO2 exposed predator or not. This suggests that the dynamics of predator-prey interactions under future CO2 environments will depend on the extent to which the interacting species are affected and can adapt to the adverse effects of elevated CO2.

Implementing the Physical Literacy Component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education Curriculum: Is the Stage Set?

Introduction: Current physical activity levels among children and youth are alarmingly low; a mere 7% of children and youth are meeting the Canadian Physical Activity Guidelines (Colley et al., 2011), which means that the vast majority of this population is at risk of developing major health problems in adulthood (Janssen & Leblanc, 2010). These high inactivity rates may be related to suboptimal experiences in sport and physical activity stemming from a lack of competence and confidence (Lubans, Morgan, Cliff, Barnett, & Okely, 2010). Developing a foundation of physical literacy can encourage and maintain lifelong physical activity, yet this does not always occur naturally as a part of human growth (Hardman, 2011). An ideal setting to foster the growth and development of physical literacy is physical education class. Physical education class can offer all children and youth an equal opportunity to learn and practice the skills needed to be active for life (Hardman, 2011). Elementary school teachers are responsible for delivering the physical education curriculum, and it is important to understand their will and capacity as the implementing agents of physical literacy development curriculum (McLaughlin, 1987). Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the physical literacy component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education curriculum policy through the eyes of key informants, and to explore the resources available for the implementation of this new policy. Methods: Qualitative interviews were conducted with seven key informants of the curriculum policy development, including two teachers. In tandem with the interviews, a resource inventory and curriculum review were conducted to assess the content and availability of physical literacy resources. All data were analyzed through the lens of Hogwood and Gunn’s (1984) 10 preconditions for policy implementation. Results: Participants discussed how implementation is affected by: accountability, external capacity, internal capacity, awareness and understanding of physical literacy, implementation expertise, and policy climate. Discussion: Participants voiced similar opinions on most issues, and the overall lack of attention given to physical education programs in schools will continue to be a major dilemma when trying to combat such high physical inactivity levels.

Complete and Voluntary Starvation of 50 days

A 34-year-old obese male (96.8 kg; BMI, 30.2 kg m⁻¹) volitionally undertook a 50-day fast with the stated goal of losing body mass. During this time, only tea, coffee, water, and a daily multivitamin were consumed. Severe and linear loss of body mass is recorded during these 50 days (final 75.4 kg; BMI, 23.5 kg m⁻¹). A surprising resilience to effects of fasting on activity levels and physical function is noted. Plasma samples are suggestive of early impairment of liver function, and perturbations to cardiovascular dynamics are also noted. One month following resumption of feeding behavior, body weight was maintained (75.0 kg; BMI, 23.4 kg m⁻¹). Evidence-based decision-making with the fasting or hunger striking patient is limited by a lack of evidence. This case report suggests that total body mass, not mass lost, may be a key observation in clinical decision-making during fasting and starvation.

Estudos de renaturação de proteínas agregadas utilizando altas pressões hidrostáticas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Obesity, diet quality and absenteeism in a working population

The relationship between workplace absenteeism and adverse lifestyle factors (smoking, physical inactivity and poor dietary patterns) remains ambiguous. Reliance on self-reported absenteeism and obesity measures may contribute to this uncertainty. Using objective absenteeism and health status measures, the present study aimed to investigate what health status outcomes and lifestyle factors influence workplace absenteeism. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a complex workplace dietary intervention trial, the Food Choice at Work Study. Four multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants included 540 randomly selected employees from the four workplaces. Annual count absenteeism data were collected. Physical assessments included objective health status measures (BMI, midway waist circumference and blood pressure). FFQ measured diet quality from which DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) scores were constructed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) regression model examined associations between health status outcomes, lifestyle characteristics and absenteeism. The mean number of absences was 2·5 (sd 4·5) d. After controlling for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, the zinb model indicated that absenteeism was positively associated with central obesity, increasing expected absence rate by 72 %. Consuming a high-quality diet and engaging in moderate levels of physical activity were negatively associated with absenteeism and reduced expected frequency by 50 % and 36 %, respectively. Being in a managerial/supervisory position also reduced expected frequency by 50 %. To reduce absenteeism, workplace health promotion policies should incorporate recommendations designed to prevent and manage excess weight, improve diet quality and increase physical activity levels of employees.

Activité physique durant la grossesse: associations avec le poids de naissance et la composition corporelle du nouveau-né

Plusieurs études se sont penchées sur les effets de l’activité physique maternelle sur le poids du nouveau-né, un paramètre reflétant l’environnement intra-utérin associé au risque ultérieur d’obésité et de problèmes métaboliques. Devant les taux alarmants d’obésité infantile à travers le monde, l’identification d’interventions préventives efficaces devient un enjeu majeur dans la lutte contre l’obésité et ses complications. L’activité physique maternelle pourrait être une avenue intéressante, étant donné ses effets bénéfiques sur le gain de poids et le profil métabolique maternels et son potentiel de diminution du poids de naissance de l’enfant. Cependant, la dose optimale d’activité physique et ses effets sur la composition corporelle du nouveau-né sont encore méconnus. Par ailleurs, la majorité des femmes enceintes ne rencontrent pas les recommandations en matière d’activité physique durant la grossesse et les femmes obèses, chez qui les bienfaits de l’activité physique pourraient possiblement avoir le plus grand impact, présentent souvent les niveaux les plus bas. Curieusement, peu d’études ont évalué les effets d’une intervention d’activité physique durant la grossesse dans cette population. Ainsi, avant d’envisager l’activité physique comme une intervention thérapeutique non-pharmacologique durant la grossesse, il importe d’en évaluer la faisabilité et la sécurité et d’en connaître extensivement les effets. Notamment, il s’avère primordial de vérifier s’il est possible d’augmenter en toute sécurité les niveaux d’activité physique durant la grossesse, particulièrement chez les femmes obèses, et de distinguer les effets spécifiques de différents stimuli d’activité physique (variant en type, volume, intensité et moment de la grossesse) sur la croissance fœtale. Dans ce contexte, nous avons dans un premier temps entrepris une revue systématique de la littérature des études observationnelles portant sur l’association entre l’activité physique maternelle et les paramètres de croissance fœtale mesurés à la naissance. Dans un deuxième temps, 2 études de cohortes évaluant l’impact du type, du volume, de l’intensité et du trimestre de pratique de l’activité physique ont été menées afin de complémenter et d’approfondir les résultats de la revue systématique. Finalement, une étude d’intervention randomisée a été réalisée afin d’évaluer s’il est possible d’améliorer les niveaux d’activité physique durant la grossesse chez les femmes enceintes obèses. Nos travaux ont permis d’illustrer l’influence variable que différents stimuli d’activité physique maternelle peuvent avoir sur l’anthropométrie néonatale. La revue systématique a montré qu’un volume moyen d’activité physique est associé à une augmentation du poids de naissance comparativement à un volume plus faible, alors qu’un volume élevé est associé à une diminution du poids de naissance, comparativement à un volume plus faible. Nos données suggèrent également que l’association entre l’activité physique maternelle et le poids de naissance varie en présence de certaines caractéristiques maternelles. Notamment, nous avons montré pour la première fois que l’activité physique vigoureuse pratiquée en début de grossesse était associée à une diminution importante du poids de naissance chez les femmes qui reçoivent un diagnostic de pré-éclampsie en fin de grossesse. L’importance de l’intensité de l’activité physique dans la relation entre l’activité physique maternelle et la croissance fœtale a également été soulignée pour la première fois dans notre étude de cohorte avec mesure de la composition corporelle néonatale. Contrairement à l’activité physique d’intensité modérée, l’activité physique vigoureuse en début de grossesse est associée à une diminution du poids de naissance, principalement en raison d’une adiposité néonatale réduite. Finalement, les résultats de l’essai randomisé ont permis d’établir la faisabilité d’une intervention d’activité physique supervisée visant à augmenter la pratique d’activité physique chez des femmes enceintes obèses et le potentiel d’une telle intervention à favoriser le maintien de la condition physique et une meilleure gestion du gain de poids chez ces femmes. L’ensemble de ces résultats permet de mieux cerner l’impact de l’activité physique maternelle sur la croissance fœtale, en fonction des caractéristiques spécifiques du stimulus d’activité physique mais également de la population étudiée. La faisabilité d’une intervention d’activité physique prénatale dans une population de femmes obèses laisse entrevoir de nouvelles possibilités dans la prévention de l’obésité infantile et de ses complications. L’identification d’une dose optimale d’activité physique favorisant la santé de l’enfant à court et à long terme dans diverses populations de femmes enceintes et l’identification des facteurs permettant une meilleure adhérence aux recommandations qui en découleront constituent des pistes de recherche essentielles à la lutte contre l’obésité.

Factors influencing the radiative surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups during early and late lactation

The aim of this study was to examine the variation in body surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups throughout lactation in response to different environmental conditions. Radiative surface temperatures (T r, °C) of pups were measured on the Isle of May (56°11′N, 02°33′W), southeast Scotland from 29 October to 25 November 2003. Records were obtained from a total of 60 pups (32 female and 28 male) from three different pupping sites during early and late lactation. Pups were sheltered from high wind speeds but air temperature, humidity and solar radiation at pupping sites were similar to general meteorological conditions. The mean T r of all pups was 15.8°C (range 7.7–29.7°C) at an average air temperature of 10.2°C (range 6.5–13.8°C). There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between early and late lactation. However, the T r varied between different regions of the body with hind flippers on average 2–6°C warmer than all other areas measured. There was no difference in mean T r of male and female pups and pup body mass did not account for the variation in T r during early or late lactation. Throughout the day there was an increase in the T r of pups and this explained 20–28% of the variation in T r depending on stage of lactation. There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between pupping sites or associated with different substrate types. Wind speed and substrate temperature had no effect on the T r of pups. However, solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity accounted for 48% of the variation in mean T r of pups during early lactation. During late lactation air temperature and solar radiation alone accounted for 43% of the variation in T r. These results indicate that environmental conditions explain only some of the variation in T r of grey seal pups in natural conditions. Differences in T r however indicate that the cost of thermoregulation for pups will vary throughout lactation. Further studies examining intrinsic factors such as blubber thickness and activity levels are necessary before developing reliable biophysical models for grey seals.

Does the 6-minute walk test predicts functional capacity in a sample of elderly women? A pilot study

Introduction: Functional capacity is the capacity to conduct daily activities in an independent way. It can be estimated with the 6-minutes’ walk test (6MWT) and other validated functional tests. Objectives: Verify associations between functional capacity measured with two different instruments (6MWT and Composite Physical Function (CPF) scale) and levels of physical activity and between those and characterization variables. Methods: This sample consisted of 30 apparently healthy elderly women from Loures municipality. Essentially they should be independent and community-dwelling. Characterization data were collected, containing characterization of physical activity levels and anthropometric data. Functional capacity was assessed with CPF scale and distance walked by the 6MWT. Results were analysed using a SPSS v21.0 through correlation tests. Results: The walked distance in 6MWT was positively associated with height (r = 0.406; p = 0.026), physical activity level (r = 0.594; p = 0.001) and functional capacity (r = 0.682; p = 0.000). For each point more obtained in CPF, the distance walked increases on average by 7.5 meters. Relatively to sedentary participants, being insufficiently active increases, on average, the distance walked in 85.8 meters; and being active increases, on average, the distance walked in 108.8 meters. No other associations were observed in our sample. Conclusion: Based on the collected sample, walked distance in 6MWT has a high correlation with results in CPF scale, so this test can be used to predict functional capacity. More attention should be taken to promote strategies to increase walking in older adults.

Supporting self-management: development and evaluation of a digital resource for adults with asthma

The problem: Around 300 million people worldwide have asthma and prevalence is increasing. Support for optimal self-management can be effective in improving a range of outcomes and is cost effective, but is underutilised as a treatment strategy. Supporting optimum self-management using digital technology shows promise, but how best to do this is not clear. Aim: The purpose of this project was to explore the potential role of a digital intervention in promoting optimum self-management in adults with asthma. Methods: Following the MRC Guidance on the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions which advocates using theory, evidence, user testing and appropriate modelling and piloting, this project had 3 phases. Phase 1: Examination of the literature to inform phases 2 and 3, using systematic review methods and focussed literature searching. Phase 2: Developing the Living Well with Asthma website. A prototype (paper-based) version of the website was developed iteratively with input from a multidisciplinary expert panel, empirical evidence from the literature (from phase 1), and potential end users via focus groups (adults with asthma and practice nurses). Implementation and behaviour change theories informed this process. The paper-based designs were converted to the website through an iterative user centred process (think aloud studies with adults with asthma). Participants considered contents, layout, and navigation. Development was agile using feedback from the think aloud sessions immediately to inform design and subsequent think aloud sessions. Phase 3: A pilot randomised controlled trial over 12 weeks to evaluate the feasibility of a Phase 3 trial of Living Well with Asthma to support self-management. Primary outcomes were 1) recruitment & retention; 2) website use; 3) Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) score change from baseline; 4) Mini Asthma Quality of Life (AQLQ) score change from baseline. Secondary outcomes were patient activation, adherence, lung function, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), generic quality of life measure (EQ-5D), medication use, prescribing and health services contacts. Results: Phase1: Demonstrated that while digital interventions show promise, with some evidence of effectiveness in certain outcomes, participants were poorly characterised, telling us little about the reach of these interventions. The interventions themselves were poorly described making drawing definitive conclusions about what worked and what did not impossible. Phase 2: The literature indicated that important aspects to cover in any self-management intervention (digital or not) included: asthma action plans, regular health professional review, trigger avoidance, psychological functioning, self-monitoring, inhaler technique, and goal setting. The website asked users to aim to be symptom free. Key behaviours targeted to achieve this include: optimising medication use (including inhaler technique); attending primary care asthma reviews; using asthma action plans; increasing physical activity levels; and stopping smoking. The website had 11 sections, plus email reminders, which promoted these behaviours. Feedback during think aloud studies was mainly positive with most changes focussing on clarification of language, order of pages and usability issues mainly relating to navigation difficulties. Phase 3: To achieve our recruitment target 5383 potential participants were invited, leading to 51 participants randomised (25 to intervention group). Age range 16-78 years; 75% female; 28% from most deprived quintile. Nineteen (76%) of the intervention group used the website for an average of 23 minutes. Non-significant improvements in favour of the intervention group observed in the ACQ score (-0.36; 95% confidence interval: -0.96, 0.23; p=0.225), and mini-AQLQ scores (0.38; -0.13, 0.89; p=0.136). A significant improvement was observed in the activity limitation domain of the mini-AQLQ (0.60; 0.05 to 1.15; p = 0.034). Secondary outcomes showed increased patient activation and reduced reliance on reliever medication. There was no significant difference in the remaining secondary outcomes. There were no adverse events. Conclusion: Living Well with Asthma has been shown to be acceptable to potential end users, and has potential for effectiveness. This intervention merits further development, and subsequent evaluation in a Phase III full scale RCT.