Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Effect of water management practice on pesticide behavior in paddy water

The fate and transport of three herbicides commonly used in rice production in Japan were compared using two water management practices. The herbicides were simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet. The first management practice was an intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system (AI) with a high drainage gate and the second one was a continuous irrigation and overflow drainage scheme (CI) in experimental paddy fields. Dissipation of the herbicides appeared to follow first order kinetics with the half-lives (DT₅₀) of 1.6-3.4 days and the DT₉₀ (90% dissipation) of 7.4-9.8 days. The AI scheme had little drainage even during large rainfall events thus resulting in losses of less than 4% of each applied herbicide through runoff. Meanwhile the CI scheme resulted in losses of about 37%, 12% and 35% of the applied masses of simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet, respectively. The intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate saved irrigation water and prevented herbicide runoff whereas the continuous irrigation and overflow scheme resulted in significant losses of water as well as the herbicides. Maintaining the excess water storage is important for preventing paddy water runoff during significant rainfall events. The organic carbon partition coefficient K_oc seems to be a strong indicator of the aquatic fate of the herbicide as compared to the water solubility (S_W). However, further investigations are required to understand the relation between K_oc and the agricultural practices upon the pesticide fate and transport. An extension of the water holding period up to 10 days after herbicide application based on the DT₉₀ from the currently specified period of 3-4 days in Japan is recommended to be a good agricultural practice for controlling the herbicide runoff from paddy fields. Also, the best water management practice, which can be recommended for use during the water holding period, is the intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and risk factors for oral HPV infection in young Australians

The prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated head and neck cancers is increasing, but the prevalence of oral HPV infection in the wider community remains unknown. We sought to determine the prevalence of, and identify risk factors for, oral HPV infection in a sample of young, healthy Australians. For this study, we recruited 307 Australian university students (18–35 years). Participants reported anonymously about basic characteristics, sexual behaviour, and alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs use. We collected oral rinse samples from all participants for HPV testing and typing. Seven of 307 (2.3%) students tested positive for oral HPV infection (3 HPV-18, one each of HPV-16, -67, -69, -90), and six of them were males (p = 0.008). Compared to HPV negative students, those with oral HPV infection were more likely to have received oral sex from more partners in their lifetime (p = 0.0004) and in the last year (p = 0.008). We found no statistically significant associations with alcohol consumption, smoking or numbers of partners for passionate kissing or sexual intercourse. In conclusion, oral HPV infection was associated with male gender and receiving oral sex in our sample of young Australians.

Growth and study of antiferroelectric lead zirconate thin films by pulsed laser ablation

Antiferroelectric lead zirconate (PZ) thin films were deposited by pulsed laser ablation on platinum-coated silicon substrates. Films showed a polycrystalline pervoskite structure upon annealing at 650 degrees C for 5-10 min. Dielectric properties were investigated as a function of temperature and frequency. The dielectric constant of PZ films was 220 at 100 kHz with a dissipation factor of 0.03. The electric field induced transformation from the antiferroelectric phase to the ferroelectric phase was observed through the polarization change, using a Sawyer-Tower circuit. The maximum polarization value obtained was 40 mu C/cm(2). The average fields to excite the ferroelectric state, and to reverse to the antiferroelectric state were 71 and 140 kV/cm, respectively. The field induced switching was also observed through double maxima in capacitance-voltage characteristics. Leakage current was studied in terms of current versus time and current versus voltage measurements. A leakage current density of 5x10(-7) A/cm(2) at 3 V, for a film of 0.7 mu m thickness, was noted at room temperature. The trap mechanism was investigated in detail in lead zirconate thin films based upon a space charge limited conduction mechanism. The films showed a backward switching time of less than 90 ns at room temperature.

Self-Assembled Pd(II) Metallocycles Using an Ambidentate Donor and the Study of Square-Triangle Equilibria

The self-assembly reaction of a cis-blocked 90° square planar metal acceptor with a symmetrical linear flexible linker is expected to yield a [4 + 4] self-assembled square, a [3 + 3] assembled triangle, or a mixture of these.However, if the ligand is a nonsymmetrical ambidentate, it is expected to form a complex mixture comprising several linkage isomeric squares and triangles as a result of different connectivities of the ambidentate linker. We report instead that the reaction of a 90° acceptor cis-(dppf)Pd(OTf)2 [where dppf ) 1,1′-bis(diphenylphosphino)- ferrocene] with an equimolar amount of the ambidentate unsymmetrical ligand Na-isonicotinate unexpectedly yields a mixture of symmetrical triangles and squares in the solution. An analogous reaction using cis-(tmen)Pd(NO3)2 instead of cis-(dppf)Pd(OTf)2 also produced a mixture of symmetrical triangles and squares in the solution. In both cases the square was isolated as the sole product in the solid state, which was characterized by a single crystal structure analysis. The equilibrium between the triangle and the square in the solution is governed by the enthalpic and entropic contributions. The former parameter favors the formation of the square due to less strain in the structure whereas the latter one favors the formation of triangles due to the formation of more triangles from the same number of starting linkers. The effects of temperature and concentration on the equilibria have been studied by NMR techniques. This represents the first report on the study of square-triangle equilibria obtained using a nonsymmetric ambidentate linker. Detail NMR spectroscopy along with the ESI-mass spectrometry unambiguously identified the components in the mixture while the X-ray structure analysis determined the solid-state structure.

Solar powered high voltage energization for vehicular exhaust cleaning: A step towards possible retrofitting in vehicles

This paper proposes a novel way of generating high voltage for electric discharge plasma in controlling NOx emission in diesel engine exhaust. A solar powered high frequency electric discharge topology has been suggested that will improve the size and specific energy density required when compared to the traditional repetitive pulse or 50 Hz AC energization. This methodology has been designed, fabricated and experimentally verified by conducting studies on real diesel engine exhaust.

Mechanism of foetal wastage following immunoneutralization of riboflavin carrier protein in the pregnant rat: disturbances in flavin coenzyme levels

Immunoneutralization of maternal RCP results in a >90% decrease in the content and the incorporation of [2-14C]riboflavin into embryonic FAD as well as a percentage redistribution of both embryonic FMN and riboflavin. This is unaccompanied by any discernible changes in flavin distribution pattern in the maternal liver. Embryonic α-glycerophosphate dehydrogenase and NADPH-cytochrome c reductase register significant decreases in activities in the RCP antiserum-treated rats. These alterations readily explain the arrest of foetal growth culminating in pregnancy termination in the antiserum-treated animals.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops. 1. Mineral N supply estimated from laboratory incubations and field application of stockpiled and wet sludge

Piggery pond sludge (PPS) was applied, as-collected (Wet PPS) and following stockpiling for 12 months (Stockpiled PPS), to a sandy Sodosol and clay Vertosol at sites on the Darling Downs of Queensland. Laboratory measures of N availability were carried out on unamended and PPS-amended soils to investigate their value in estimating supplementary N needs of crops in Australia's northern grains region. Cumulative net N mineralised from the long-term (30 weeks) leached aerobic incubation was described by a first-order single exponential model. The mineralisation rate constant (0.057/week) was not significantly different between Control and PPS treatments or across soil types, when the amounts of initial mineral N applied in PPS treatments were excluded. Potentially mineralisable N (No) was significantly increased by the application of Wet PPS, and increased with increasing rate of application. Application of Wet PPS significantly increased the total amount of inorganic N leached compared with the Control treatments. Mineral N applied in Wet PPS contributed as much to the total mineral N status of the soil as did that which mineralised over time from organic N. Rates of C02 evolution during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation indicated that the Stockpiled PPS was more stabilised (19-28% of applied organic C mineralised) than the WetPPS (35-58% of applied organic C mineralised), due to higher lignin content in the former. Net nitrate-N produced following 12 weeks of aerobic non-leached incubation was highly correlated with net nitrate-N leached during 12 weeks of aerobic incubation (R^2 = 0.96), although it was <60% of the latter in both sandy and clayey soils. Anaerobically mineralisable N determined by waterlogged incubation of laboratory PPS-amended soil samples increased with increasing application rate of Wet PPS. Anaerobically minemlisable N from field-moist soil was well correlated with net N mineralised during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation (R^2 =0.90 sandy soil; R^2=0.93 clay soil). In the clay soil, the amount of mineral N produced from all the laboratory incubations was significantly correlated with field-measured nitrate-N in the soil profile (0-1.5 m depth) after 9 months of weed-free fallow following PPS application. In contrast, only anaerobic mineralisable N was significantly correlated with field nitrate-N in the sandy soil. Anaerobic incubation would, therefore, be suitable as a rapid practical test to estimate potentially mineralisable N following applications of different PPS materials in the field.

Aavan meren täällä puolen : Arkkityyppiset piirteet ja amerikkalaisvaikutteet suosituimmissa suomalaisissa molli-iskelmissä

What are the musical features that turn a song into a hit? The aim of this research is to explore the musical features of hit tunes by studying the 224 most popular Finnish evergreens from the 1930s to the 1990s. It is remarkable, that 80-90% of Finnish oldies are in a minor key, though parallel major keys have also been widely employed within single pieces through, for example, modulations. Furthermore, melodies are usually diatonic, staying mostly in the same key. Consequently, chromatically altered tones in the melody and short modulations in the bridge sections become more prominent. I have concentrated in particular on the melodic lines in order to find the most typical melodic formulas from the data. These analyzed melodic formulas play an important role, because they serve as leading phrases and punchlines in songs. Analysis has revealed three major melodic formulas, which most often appear in the melodic lines of hit tunes. All of these formulas share common thematic ground, because they originate from the triadic tonic chord. Because the tonic chord is the most conventional opening chord in the verse parts, it is logical that these formulas occur most often in verses. The strong dominance of these formulas is very much a result of the rhythmic flexibility they possess; for instance, they can be found in every musical style from waltz to foxtrot. Alongside the major formulas lies a miscellaneous group of other tonic-related melodic formulas. One group of melodic formulas consists of melodic quotations. These quotations appear in a different musical context, for instance in a harmonically altered form, and are therefore often difficult to recognize as such. Yet despite the contextual manipulation, the distinctive character of the cited melody usually remains the same. Composers have also made use of certain popular chord-progressions in order to create new but familiar-sounding melodies. The most important individual progression in this case is what is known as a "circle of fifths" and its shortened, prolonged and altered versions. Because that progression is harmonically strong, it is also a contrastive tool used especially in chorus parts and middle sections (AABA). I have also paid attention to ragtime and jazz influences, which can be found in harmony parts and certain melody notes, which extend, suspend or alter the accompaning chords. Other influences from jazz and ragtime in the Finnish evergreen are evident in the use of typical Tin Pan Alley popular song forms. The most important is the AABA form, which dominates over the data along with the verse/chorus-type popular song form. To briefly illustrate the main results, the basic concept of the hit tune can be traced back to Tin Pan Alley songs, whereas the major stylistic aspects, such as minor keys and musical styles, bear influences from Russian, Western European, and Finnish traditions.

Effects of environmental heat on conception rates in lactating dairy cows: Critical periods of exposure

Environmental heat can reduce conception rates (the proportion of services that result in pregnancy) in lactating dairy cows. The study objectives were to identify periods of exposure relative to the service date in which environmental heat is most closely associated with conception rates, and to assess whether the total time cows are exposed to high environmental heat within each 24-h period is more closely associated with conception rates than is the maximum environmental heat for each 24-h period. A retrospective observational study was conducted in 25 predominantly Holstein-Friesian commercial dairy herds located in Australia. Associations between weather and conception rates were assessed using 16,878 services performed over a 21-mo period. Services were classified as successful based on rectal palpation. Two measures of heat load were defined for each 24-h period: the maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for the period, and the number of hours in the 24-h period when the THI was >72. Conception rates were reduced when cows were exposed to a high heat load from the day of service to 6 d after service, and in wk -1. Heat loads in wk -3 to -5 were also associated with reduced conception rates. Thus, management interventions to ameliorate the effects of heat load on conception rates should be implemented at least 5 wk before anticipated service and should continue until at least 1 wk after service. High autocorrelations existed between successive daily values in both measures, and associations between day of heat load relative to service day and conception rates differed substantially when ridge regression was used to account for this autocorrelation. This indicates that when assessing the effects of heat load on conception rates, the autocorrelation in heat load between days should be accounted for in analyses. The results suggest that either weekly averages or totals summarizing the daily heat load are adequate to describe heat load when assessing effects on conception rates in lactating dairy cows.

Identifying major contributing sources to odour annoyance using a non-specific gas sensor array

Identification of major contributors to odour annoyance in areas with multiple emission sources is necessary to address and resolve odour disputes. In an effort to develop an appropriate tool for this task, odour samples were collected on-site at a piggery and an abattoir (the major odour sources in the area) and at surrounding off-site areas, then analysed using a commercial non-specific chemical sensor array to develop an odour fingerprint database. The developed odour fingerprint database was analysed using two pattern recognition algorithms including a partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and a Kohonen self-organising map (KSOM). The KSOM model could identify odour samples sourced from the piggery shed 15, piggery pond 8, piggery pond 9, abattoir, motel and others with mean percentage values of 77.5, 65.0, 90.2, 75.7, 44.8 and 64.6%, respectively.

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Associations with low rates of postpartum glucose screening after gestational diabetes among Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women

OBJECTIVES To explore factors associated with postpartum glucose screening among women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM). METHODS A retrospective study using linked records from women with GDM who gave birth at Cairns Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS The rates of postpartum Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) screening, while having increased significantly among both Indigenous* and non-Indigenous women from 2004 to 2010 (HR 1.15 per year, 95%CI 1.08-1.22, p<0.0001), remain low, particularly among Indigenous women (10% versus 27%, respectively at six months postpartum). Indigenous women in Cairns had a longer time to postpartum OGTT than Indigenous women in remote areas (HR 0.58, 0.38-0.71, p=0.01). Non-Indigenous women had a longer time to postpartum OGTT if they: were born in Australia (HR 0.76, 0.59-1.00, 0.05); were aged <25 years (HR 0.45, 0.23-0.89, p=0.02); had parity >5 (HR 0.33, 0.12-0.90, p=0.03); smoked (HR 0.48, 0.31-0.76, p=0.001); and did not breastfeed (HR 0.09, 0.01-0.64, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Postpartum diabetes screening rates following GDM in Far North Queensland are low, particularly among Indigenous women, with lower rates seen in the regional centre; and among non-Indigenous women with indicators of low socioeconomic status. IMPLICATIONS Strategies are urgently needed to improve postpartum diabetes screening after GDM that reach women most at risk.