Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

Superhumps, magnetic fields and the mass ratio in AM Canum Venaticorum

We show that the observed K velocities and periodicities of AM CVn can be reconciled given a mass ratio q~0.22 and a secondary star with a modest magnetic field of surface strength B~1 T. We see that the new mass ratio implies that the secondary is most likely semidegenerate. The effect of the field on the accretion disc structure is examined. The theory of precessing discs and resonant orbits is generalized to encompass higher order resonances than 3:2 and shown to retain consistency with the new mass ratio.

How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets.

Global syntheses of palaeoenvironmental data are required to test climate models under conditions different from the present. Data sets for this purpose contain data from spatially extensive networks of sites. The data are either directly comparable to model output or readily interpretable in terms of modelled climate variables. Data sets must contain sufficient documentation to distinguish between raw (primary) and interpreted (secondary, tertiary) data, to evaluate the assumptions involved in interpretation of the data, to exercise quality control, and to select data appropriate for specific goals. Four data bases for the Late Quaternary, documenting changes in lake levels since 30 kyr BP (the Global Lake Status Data Base), vegetation distribution at 18 kyr and 6 kyr BP (BIOME 6000), aeolian accumulation rates during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (DIRTMAP), and tropical terrestrial climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (the LGM Tropical Terrestrial Data Synthesis) are summarised. Each has been used to evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 calendar kyr BP) and/or mid-Holocene (6 cal. kyr BP) environments. Comparisons have demonstrated that changes in radiative forcing and orography due to orbital and ice-sheet variations explain the first-order, broad-scale (in space and time) features of global climate change since the LGM. However, atmospheric models forced by 6 cal. kyr BP orbital changes with unchanged surface conditions fail to capture quantitative aspects of the observed climate, including the greatly increased magnitude and northward shift of the African monsoon during the early to mid-Holocene. Similarly, comparisons with palaeoenvironmental datasets show that atmospheric models have underestimated the magnitude of cooling and drying of much of the land surface at the LGM. The inclusion of feedbacks due to changes in ocean- and land-surface conditions at both times, and atmospheric dust loading at the LGM, appears to be required in order to produce a better simulation of these past climates. The development of Earth system models incorporating the dynamic interactions among ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation is therefore mandated by Quaternary science results as well as climatological principles. For greatest scientific benefit, this development must be paralleled by continued advances in palaeodata analysis and synthesis, which in turn will help to define questions that call for new focused data collection efforts.

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost, and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, we characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. We find that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures, and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind-driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. We conclude that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Separation and viability of gill and hepatopancreatic cells of a mangrove crab Ucides cordatus

The gills contain essential cells for respiration and osmoregulation, whereas the hepatopancreas is the site of digestion, absorption, and nutrients storage. The aim of this work was to separate and characterize gill and hepatopancreatic cells of the mangrove crab, Ucides cordatus. For gills, the methodology consisted of an enzymatic cellular dissociation using Trypsin at 0.5%, observation of cellular viability with Tripan Blue, and separation of cells using discontinuous sucrose gradient at concentrations of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%. The hepatopancreatic cells were dissociated by magnetic stirring, with posterior separation by sucrose gradient at the same concentrations above. For gills, a high cellular viability was observed (92.5 +/- 2.1%), with hemocyte cells in 10% sucrose layer (57.99 +/- 0.17%, *P < 0.05), principal cells in the 20% sucrose layer (57.33 +/- 0.18, *P < 0.05), and thick cells and pillar cells in the 30% and 40% sucrose layers, respectively (39.54 +/- 0.05%, *P < 0.05; and 41.81 +/- 0.04%, *P < 0.05). The hepatopancreatic cells also showed good viability (79.22 +/- 0.02%), with the observation of embryonic (E) cells in the 10% sucrose layer (67.87 +/- 0.06%, **P < 0.001), resorptive (R) and fibrillar (F) cells in the 20% and 30% sucrose layers (44.71 +/- 0.06%, **P < 0.001, and 43.25 +/- 0.01%, *P < 0.05; respectively), and blister (B) cells in the 40% sucrose layer (63.09 +/- 0.03%, **P < 0.001). The results are a starting point for in vitro studies of heavy metal transport in isolated cells of the mangrove crab U. cordatus, subjected to contamination by metals in the mangrove habitat where they are found.

Leishmanicidal Activity and Immobilization of dermaseptin 01 antimicrobial peptides in ultrathin films for nanomedicine applications

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are essential for the innate immune system of eukaryotes, imparting protection against pathogens and their proliferation in host organisms. The recent interest in AMPs as active materials in bionanostructures is due to the properties shown by these biological molecules, such as the presence of an alpha-helix structure and distribution of positive charges along the chain. In this study the antimicrobial peptide dermaseptin 01 (DS 01), from the skin secretion of Phyllomedusa hypochondrialis frogs was immobilized in nanostructured layered films in conjunction with nickel tetrasulfonated phthalocyanines. The leishmanicidal activity of DS 01 was confirmed using kinetic essays, in which DS 01 promoted death of all metacyclic promastigote cells in 45 minutes. Surprisingly, the immobilized DS 01 molecules displayed electroactivity, as revealed by electrochemical experiments, in which an oxidation peak at about 0.61 V was observed for a DS 01 monolayer deposited on top of a conductive electrode. Such electroactivity was used to investigate the sensing abilities of the nanostructured films toward Leishmania. We observed an increase in the oxidation current as a function of number of Leishmania cells in the electrolytic solution at concentrations down to 10(3) cells/mL. The latter is indicative that the use of AMPs immobilized in electroactive nanostructured films may be of interest for applications in the pharmaceutical industry and diagnosis.

N-H...S=C hydrogen bond in O-alkyl N-methoxycarbonyl thiocarbamates, ROC(S)N(H)C(O)O)CH(3) (R = CH(3)(-), CH(3)CH(2)-)

Pure O-methyl N-methoxycarbonyl thiocarbamate CH(3)OC(S)N(H)C(O)OCH(3) (I) and O-ethyl N-methoxycarbonyl thiocarbamate, CH(3)CH(2)OC(S)N(H)C(O)OCH(3) (II), are quantitatively prepared by the addition reaction between the CH(3)OC(O)NCS and the corresponding alcohols. The compounds are characterized by multinuclear ((1)H and (13)C) and bi-dimensional ((13)C HSQC) NMR, GC-MS and FTIR spectroscopy techniques. Structural and conformational properties are analyzed using a combined approach involving crystallographic data, vibration spectra and theoretical calculations. The low-temperature (150 K) crystal structure of II was determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The substance crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/n with a = 4.088(1)angstrom. b = 22.346(1)angstrom, c = 8.284(1)angstrom, beta = 100.687(3)degrees and Z = 4 molecules per unit cell. The conformation adopted by the thiocarbamate group -OC(S)N(H)- is syn (C=S double bond in synperiplanar orientation with respect to the N-H single bond), while the methoxycarbonyl C=O double bond is in antiperiplanar orientation with respect to the N-H bond. The non-H atoms in II are essentially coplanar and the molecules are arranged in the crystal lattice as centro-symmetric dimeric units held by N-H center dot center dot center dot S=C hydrogen bonds Id(N center dot center dot center dot S) = 3.387(1)angstrom, <(N-H center dot center dot center dot S) = 166.4(2)degrees]. Furthermore, the effect of the it electronic resonance in the structural and vibrational properties is also discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.