923 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting
Resumo:
Using the plausible model of activated carbon proposed by Harris and co-workers and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we study the applicability of standard methods for describing adsorption data on microporous carbons widely used in adsorption science. Two carbon structures are studied, one with a small distribution of micropores in the range up to 1 nm, and the other with micropores covering a wide range of porosity. For both structures, adsorption isotherms of noble gases (from Ne to Xe), carbon tetrachloride and benzene are simulated. The data obtained are considered in terms of Dubinin-Radushkevich plots. Moreover, for benzene and carbon tetrachloride the temperature invariance of the characteristic curve is also studied. We show that using simulated data some empirical relationships obtained from experiment can be successfully recovered. Next we test the applicability of Dubinin's related models including the Dubinin-Izotova, Dubinin-Radushkevich-Stoeckli, and Jaroniec-Choma equations. The results obtained demonstrate the limits and applications of the models studied in the field of carbon porosity characterization.
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This study evaluated the effects of fat and sugar levels on the surface properties of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG during storage in food model systems, simulating yogurt and ice cream, and related them with the ability of the bacterial cells to adhere to Caco-2 cells. Freeze-dried L. rhamnosus GG cells were added to the model food systems and stored for 7 days. The bacterial cells were analyzed for cell viability, hydrophobicity, ζ potential, and their ability to adhere to Caco-2 cells. The results indicated that the food type and its composition affected the surface and adhesion properties of the bacterial cells during storage, with yogurt being a better delivery vehicle than ice cream in terms of bacterial adhesion to Caco-2 cells. The most important factor influencing bacterial adhesion was the storage time rather than the levels of fats and sugars, indicating that conformational changes were taking place on the surface of the bacterial cells during storage.
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This paper reports the proceedings of a conference held at Reading University in 1993 which addressed the issues of new technological developments at the regional and sub-regional levels in Britain and France. These new technological clusters - the `Technopoles' - are investigated in a series of papers in both English and French which examines their spatial, sectoral and economic aspects to determine what lessons can be learned from their development and what their future economic significance is likely to be. Two recurring themes are of particular significance in the papers - the link between R& D and regional development, and the different forms which innovation assumes within the various technopoles under scrutiny.
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Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.
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Climate modeling is a complex process, requiring accurate and complete metadata in order to identify, assess and use climate data stored in digital repositories. The preservation of such data is increasingly important given the development of ever-increasingly complex models to predict the effects of global climate change. The EU METAFOR project has developed a Common Information Model (CIM) to describe climate data and the models and modelling environments that produce this data. There is a wide degree of variability between different climate models and modelling groups. To accommodate this, the CIM has been designed to be highly generic and flexible, with extensibility built in. METAFOR describes the climate modelling process simply as "an activity undertaken using software on computers to produce data." This process has been described as separate UML packages (and, ultimately, XML schemas). This fairly generic structure canbe paired with more specific "controlled vocabularies" in order to restrict the range of valid CIM instances. The CIM will aid digital preservation of climate models as it will provide an accepted standard structure for the model metadata. Tools to write and manage CIM instances, and to allow convenient and powerful searches of CIM databases,. Are also under development. Community buy-in of the CIM has been achieved through a continual process of consultation with the climate modelling community, and through the METAFOR team’s development of a questionnaire that will be used to collect the metadata for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs.
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Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the ClausiusClapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.
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Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.
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The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozonedepleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.
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Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.
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This paper presents single-column model (SCM) simulations of a tropical squall-line case observed during the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment of the Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Programme. This case-study was part of an international model intercomparison project organized by Working Group 4 ‘Precipitating Convective Cloud Systems’ of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment) Cloud System Study. Eight SCM groups using different deep-convection parametrizations participated in this project. The SCMs were forced by temperature and moisture tendencies that had been computed from a reference cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation using open boundary conditions. The comparison of the SCM results with the reference CRM simulation provided insight into the ability of current convection and cloud schemes to represent organized convection. The CRM results enabled a detailed evaluation of the SCMs in terms of the thermodynamic structure and the convective mass flux of the system, the latter being closely related to the surface convective precipitation. It is shown that the SCMs could reproduce reasonably well the time evolution of the surface convective and stratiform precipitation, the convective mass flux, and the thermodynamic structure of the squall-line system. The thermodynamic structure simulated by the SCMs depended on how the models partitioned the precipitation between convective and stratiform. However, structural differences persisted in the thermodynamic profiles simulated by the SCMs and the CRM. These differences could be attributed to the fact that the total mass flux used to compute the SCM forcing differed from the convective mass flux. The SCMs could not adequately represent these organized mesoscale circulations and the microphysicallradiative forcing associated with the stratiform region. This issue is generally known as the ‘scale-interaction’ problem that can only be properly addressed in fully three-dimensional simulations. Sensitivity simulations run by several groups showed that the time evolution of the surface convective precipitation was considerably smoothed when the convective closure was based on convective available potential energy instead of moisture convergence. Finally, additional SCM simulations without using a convection parametrization indicated that the impact of a convection parametrization in forced SCM runs was more visible in the moisture profiles than in the temperature profiles because convective transport was particularly important in the moisture budget.
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Using the KOF Index of Globalization and two indices of economic freedom, the authors empirically analyze whether globalization and economic liberalization affect governments’ respect for human rights in a panel of 106 countries over the 1981–2004 period. According to their results, physical integrity rights significantly and robustly increase with globalization and economic freedom, while empowerment rights are not robustly affected. Due to the lack of consensus about the appropriate level of empowerment rights as compared to the outright rejection of any violation of physical integrity rights, the global community is presumably less effective in promoting empowerment rights.
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The term neural population models (NPMs) is used here as catchall for a wide range of approaches that have been variously called neural mass models, mean field models, neural field models, bulk models, and so forth. All NPMs attempt to describe the collective action of neural assemblies directly. Some NPMs treat the densely populated tissue of cortex as an excitable medium, leading to spatially continuous cortical field theories (CFTs). An indirect approach would start by modelling individual cells and then would explain the collective action of a group of cells by coupling many individual models together. In contrast, NPMs employ collective state variables, typically defined as averages over the group of cells, in order to describe the population activity directly in a single model. The strength and the weakness of his approach are hence one and the same: simplification by bulk. Is this justified and indeed useful, or does it lead to oversimplification which fails to capture the pheno ...