Ukrainians' EU migration prospects. OSW Commentary No. 128, 10.03.2014.

The political crisis in Ukraine, particularly the bloodshed seen on 18–20 February and the subsequent Russian intervention in Crimea, has sparked fears of another possible wave of immigrants heading to the EU. However, the country was partially politically stabilised (at least in its central and western parts), and this has made the scenario of a mass migration of people from Ukraine rather unlikely. If there is no civil war in Ukraine, any further development of the political situation in Ukraine may have only an indirect impact on the actual migration. Should the political instability continue, the Ukrainian economy remain in recession while jobs are available for Ukrainian immigrants in the EU, then an increase in the migration of Ukrainian citizens to the EU, including Poland, would be possible. In the short term there may be two characteristic groups of immigrants: (1) young people who will attempt to leave Ukraine for good due to the lack of job opportunities; (2) circulating migrants, mainly from western Ukraine, who will be looking for temporary jobs. Only if the economic downturn trend and political turmoil in Ukraine continues for a longer time, will settlement migration increase.

Carbon Market Provisions in the Paris Agreement (Article 6). CEPS Special Report No. 128/January 2016

The markets provisions, contained in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015, can be seen as both a major success and a minor miracle. Throughout 2015, and during COP21 itself, the prediction was for a very small reference to anything related to markets, or possibly even the total omission of any such reference in the text. As predicted, the markets/non-markets text in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (PA) was one of the last issues to be agreed, in the last night of COP21, shortly before the text went to the COP President, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, for final approval and its subsequent release to the delegates for acceptance on 12 December 2015. This paper presents the evolution of the ideas contained in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and how these were captured in textual form in different drafts of the agreement. Understanding the origin of different provisions in the PA, and their evolution, may prove crucial. Losing the institutional memory may lead to attempts, through re-interpretation of the PA, to renegotiate it.

Structural features in ODP Holes 128-794D and 128-799B

Numerous structural features occur in the Leg 128 cores from the Japan Sea. They include (1) gravity-induced structures such as slump folds, (2) dewatering structures comprising several sets of veins, and (3) larger faults and veins developed in the volcanic basement of the Yamato Basin as well as in the sedimentary rocks of the Oki Ridge and Kita-Yamato Trough. Gravity-induced structures, mainly slumps and associated faults, suggest the existence of paleoslopes and the dominance of gravitational tectonics during the early and middle Miocene, at the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary, and during the Quaternary. Several types of mud-filled veins having various shapes were observed. These are especially abundant in the middle Miocene siliceous claystones and porcellanites from the Kita-Yamato Trough. They have been interpreted as dewatering conduits that formed preferentially in highly porous, water-saturated diatomaceous muds on a slope, because of episodic loss of sediment strength, collapse of the sediment framework, and consequent fluid migration. The central part of the vein serves once as a fluid conduit, whereas the transition between conduit-controlled and intergranular flow occurs at the branching extremities, with concentration of fines. The likely trigger responsible for the strength loss is seismic activity. Development of these veins, spatially and chronologically linked to small normal microfaults, implies an extensional regime having layer-parallel extension and a local bedding-parallel shear couple, probably the result of gravitational gliding. The brittle fractures found in Yamato Basin basement Hole 794D cores comprise joints, faults, and veins filled with chlorite-saponite, saponite, and calcite. They suggest a likely transpressive to transtensional regime around the early Miocene/ middle Miocene boundary, with a north-northeast-south-southwest compression alternating with a west-northwest-eastsoutheast extension. The faults from Site 799 cores on the Yamato Rise exhibit a prominent early Miocene-middle Miocene extensional environment, a late Miocene-early Pliocene phase of normal and strike-slip faulting, and a final phase that began during the latest Pliocene. Site 798, on the Oki Ridge, reveals faults that recorded a consistent extensional tectonic regime from Pliocene to the Holocene. These data support the pull-apart kinematic model for early Miocene-middle Miocene time, as regarding the stress regime deduced from the Yamato Basin basement fractures. The recent compression known in the eastern margin of the Japan Sea was not documented by compressive structures at any site. The late Miocene-early Pliocene faulting phase corresponds to a major and general reorganization of the stress distribution in the arc area. Evidence for rapid and main subsidence and synsedimentary extension of the Yamato Basin and Yamato Rise areas between 20 and 15 Ma, and the concomitant rotation of southwest Japan, raise the question of links between this opening and the Shimanto Belt collision in southwest Japan, between the arc and the Philippine Sea Plate.