Does regional infrastructure investment stimulate extra housing and commercial building supply? Long-run evidence across the English regions

This paper uses long-term regional construction data to investigate whether increases infrastructure investment in the English regions leads to subsequent rises in housebuilding and new commercial property, using time series modeling. Both physical (roads and harbours) and social infrastructure (education and health) impacts are investigated across nine regions in England. Significant effects for physical infrastructure are found across most regions and, also, some evidence of a social infrastructure effect. The results are not consistent across regions, which may be due to geographical differences and to network and diversionary effects. However, the results do suggest that infrastructure does have some impact but follows differential lag structures. These results provide a test of the hypothesis of the economic benefits of infrastructure investment in an approach that has not been used before.

Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models

The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution. Resolving small-scale processes in the ocean produces a more realistic oceanic mean state, with a reduced cold tongue bias, which in turn allows the atmospheric model component to be forced more realistically. A realistic atmospheric basic state is critical in order to represent Rossby wave propagation in response to El Niño, and hence the extra-tropical response to El Niño. Through the use of high and low resolution configurations of the forced atmospheric-only model component we show that, in isolation, atmospheric resolution does not significantly affect the simulation of the extra-tropical response to El Niño. It is demonstrated, through perturbations to the SST forcing of the atmospheric model component, that biases in the climatological SST field typical of coupled model configurations with low oceanic resolution can account for the erroneous atmospheric basic state seen in these coupled model configurations. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale oceanic processes in producing a realistic large-scale mean climate in coupled models, and suggest that it might may be possible to “squeeze out” valuable extra performance from coupled models through increases to oceanic resolution alone.

Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review

Based on the availability of hemispheric gridded data sets from observations, analysis and global climate models, objective cyclone identification methods were developed and applied to these data sets. Due to the large amount of investigation methods combined with the variety of different datasets, a multitude of results exist, not only for the recent climate period but also for the next century, assuming anthropogenic changed conditions. Different thresholds, different physical quantities, and considerations of different atmospheric vertical levels add to a picture that is difficult to combine into a common view of cyclones, their variability and trends, in the real world and in GCM studies. Thus, this paper will give a comprehensive review of the actual knowledge on climatologies of mid-latitude cyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere for the present climate and for its possible changes under anthropogenic climate conditions.

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.

Genetic analysis reveals a novel locus in Vicia faba decoupling pigmentation in the flower from that in the extra-floral nectaries

The genetics of the stipule spot pigmentation (SSP) in faba bean (Vicia faba L.) was studied using four inbred lines, of which Disco/2 was zero-tannin (zt2) with colourless stipule spots, ILB938/2 was normal-tannin (ZT2) with colourless stipule spots, and both Aurora/2 and Mélodie/2 were ZT2 with coloured stipule spots. Crosses Mélodie/2 × ILB 938/2, Mélodie/2 × Disco/2, ILB 938/2 × Aurora/2 and ILB 938/2 × Disco/2 (A, B, C and D, respectively) were prepared, along with reciprocals and backcrosses, and advanced through single-seed descent. All F1 hybrid plants had pigmented stipule spots, and in the F2 generation, the segregation ratio fit 3 coloured:1 colourless in crosses A, B and C and 9:7 in cross D. In the F3 generation, the ratio fit 5:3 in crosses A and C and 25:39 in cross D, and in the F4 generation, 9:7 in cross A. SSP was linked to the zero-tannin characteristics (white flower) only in cross B. The results show that coloured stipule spot is dominant to colourless and that colouration is determined by two unlinked complementary recessive genes. We propose the symbols ssp2 for the gene associated with zt2 in Disco/2 and ssp1 for the gene not associated with tannin content in ILB938/2. The novel ssp1 locus was mapped at F5 in cross ‘A’ using Medicago truncatula-derived single-nucleotide polymorphism and was on chromosome 1 of faba bean, in a well-conserved region of M. truncatula chromosome 5 containing some candidate Myb and basic helix–loop–helix transcription factor genes.

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

Topological interactions in warped extra dimensions

Topological interactions will be generated in theories with compact extra dimensions where fermionic chiral zero modes have different localizations. This is the case in many warped extra dimension models where the right-handed top quark is typically localized away from the left-handed one. Using deconstruction techniques, we study the topological interactions in these models. These interactions appear as trilinear and quadrilinear gauge boson couplings in low energy effective theories with three or more sites, as well as in the continuum limit. We derive the form of these interactions for various cases, including examples of Abelian, non-Abelian and product gauge groups of phenomenological interest. The topological interactions provide a window into the more fundamental aspects of these theories and could result in unique signatures at the Large Hadron Collider, some of which we explore.

Tha contribution of home-based technology to older people's quality of life in extra care housing

Background: British government policy for older people focuses on a vision of active ageing and independent living. In the face of diminishing personal capacities, the use of appropriate home-based technology (HBT) devices could potentially meet a wide range of needs and consequently improve many aspects of older people's quality of life such as physical health, psychosocial well-being, social relationships, and their physical or living environment. This study aimed to examine the use of HBT devices and the correlation between use of such devices and quality of life among older people living in extra-care housing (ECH).  Methods: A structured questionnaire was administered for this study. Using purposive sampling 160 older people living in extra-care housing schemes were selected from 23 schemes in England. A face-to-face interview was conducted in each participant's living unit. In order to measure quality of life, the SEIQoL-Adapted and CASP-19 were used.  Results: Although most basic appliances and emergency call systems were used in the living units, communally provided facilities such as personal computers, washing machines, and assisted bathing equipment in the schemes were not well utilised. Multiple regression analysis adjusted for confounders including age, sex, marital status, living arrangement and mobility use indicated a coefficient of 1.17 with 95% CI (0.05, 2.29) and p = 0.04 [SEIQoL-Adapted] and 2.83 with 95% CI (1.17, 4.50) and p = 0.001 [CASP-19].  Conclusions: The findings of the present study will be value to those who are developing new form of specialised housing for older people with functional limitations and, in particular, guiding investments in technological aids. The results of the present study also indicate that the home is an essential site for developing residential technologies.

”Kan regeringen lägga 48 miljarder extra på invandringen, kan man tycka att ett par miljoner kan gå till oss som bor här och är sjuka i hepatit C?” : Hur invandring och mångkultur uttrycks i insändare, en innehållsanalys

Under många år har ”invandringsfrågan” varit en mycket debatterad fråga. Detta märks inte minst i alla de insändare som publicerats i Dalarnas morgontidningar. Integration och ekonomi är exempel på ämnen som nämns i dessa insändare då diskursen invandring diskuteras. En betydande faktor i debatten har bland annat varit Sverigedemokraternas valframgångar. Med denna undersökning vill vi försöka kartlägga hur diskursen invandring framställs i insändare från Dala-demokraten. Detta har gjorts med en innehålls- och diskursanalys. Analysen har utgått från insändare mellan tidsperioden augusti-april 2002/2003 och 2014/2015, vilket motsvarar tiden kring de båda riksdagsvalen.Analysen har genererat fyra teman (mångkultur och svenskhet, integrationsfrågan och invandring, demokrati och yttrandefrihet och ekonomi och välfärd) som diskursen invandring kretsar kring. Utifrån dessa teman har vår analys visat att Sverigedemokraternas valframgångar tenderar att delvis influera diskursen invandring som insändarskribenterna förmedlar. Diskursen invandring har gått från att kretsa kring integrationsproblematik 2002/2003 till ekonomisk problematik 2014/2015. Analysen har även visat på ett ”vi och dem”-tänk som genomsyrar diskursen invandring under bägge tidsperioder. Detta sker både genom fördomsfulla framställningar av andra människor och i uppdelningen av vilka som ”bör” få ta del av Sveriges gemensamma medel.

Práticas musicais extra-escolares de adolescentes : um survey com estudantes de ensino médio na cidade de Londrina/PR

Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo investigar as práticas musicais extra-escolares de adolescentes que freqüentam ensino médio na cidade de Londrina/PR. Utilizando metodologia de survey, com uma amostra estratificada de 364 estudantes, procurou-se identificar regularidades e diferenças nas práticas musicais dessa população, a qual foi constituída a partir de uma estratificação por sexo e por diferentes níveis de status econômico. A partir da análise dos dados recolhidos através de um questionário auto-administrado com maioria de questões fechadas, descreve-se os hábitos musicais dos adolescentes pesquisados, em relação à quantidade e assiduidade das práticas de fruição e produção direta de música, bem como são identificados os lugares e recursos por eles utilizados para desenvolvê-las. A análise dos dados revela que a acessibilidade a determinados recursos e/ou práticas tende a evidenciar índices diferenciados de fazeres musicais realizados pelos diferentes estratos sociais. Revela ainda que, entre os diferentes estratos, existem similaridades nos índices de execução de algumas práticas, a exemplo do canto, e diferenças acentuadas em outras, como no caso da execução instrumental. A partir da análise da totalidade dos dados recolhidos, pode-se confirmar a intensa assiduidade com que a música é praticada pelos adolescentes fora do ambiente escolar, seja através de sua fruição, seja através de sua execução ou criação.

Alterações neurológicas em lactentes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca com circulação extra-corpórea

Objetivos: analisar o desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor antes e depois de cirurgia cardíaca em crianças através de dois instrumentos: exame neurológico e do teste de Denver II Métodos: foram randomicamente selecionadas os lactentes com indicação de cirurgia cardíaca com utilização de circulação extra-corpórea no período de abril de 2001 a setembro de 2002 Delineamento: coorte prospectivo não controlado Intervenções: Um dia antes da cirurgia eletiva, na alta da unidade de terapia intensiva pediátrica cardíaca e entre 3 a 6 meses após a cirurgia cardíaca os pacientes incluídos no estudo eram submetidos a um exame neurológico padronizado realizado pelo mesmo neurologista pediátrico e ao teste de Denver II aplicado por 2 pediatras de maneira independente, apresentando uma concordância de resultados entre 89-100% . Estatística: O test t student para amostras pareadas para os índices de Denver II . Teste do Qui-quadrado para as categorias do exame neurológico antes e depois de cirurgia. Foi estimado um tamanho amostral de 15 crianças. Resultados: Foram incluídas 20 crianças, com idade média no momento da correção de 6,7 ± 4,2 meses e peso médio 5,3± 2,2 quilogramas. Os defeitos septais ocorreram em 11 casos (55%). O tempo médio de circulação extra-corpórea era 67± 23,6 minutos, com o uso de ultrafiltração modificada. Quinze crianças tinham atraso no desenvolvimento de neuropsicomotor no momento da cirurgia, mas em seis foi observado normalização depois de 3 a 6 meses de seguimento (p=0,11). Quando os índices de Denver II, dentro de cada domínio, foram analisados (índices motor grosseiro, motor fino, linguagem, total e pessoal-social), observou-se um aumento em todos os domínios após a cirurgia, exceto o último (p < 0.05). O percentual médio de melhora nos índices oscilou entre 17 a 23%. Um tamanho de efeito grande foi calculado para linguagem e moderado nas habilidades de motoras. Conclusão: Apesar destas crianças estarem em risco de novos achados neurológicos, os resultados sugerem uma melhora precoce nos índices de desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor após cirurgia cardíaca com extra-corpórea.

Contribuição das extra-sístoles no diagnóstico do infarto do miocárdio pelo eletrocardiograma

Para avaliar associação entre infarto do miocárdio e a presença no eletrocardiograma de extra-sístoles supraventriculares ou ventriculares com morfologia QR, foi realizado um estudo de caso-controle aninhado em um estudo transversal. No período de janeiro de 2000 a maio de 2004 foram realizados 6244 exames de cateterismo cardíaco na Unidade de Hemodinâmica do Serviço de Cardiologia do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Deste grupo foram selecionados 35 pacientes com infarto do miocárdio (IM) e 11 sem IM, sendo que destes 46 pacientes 33 já apresentavam extra-sístoles espontaneamente e os outros 13 tiveram suas extra-sístoles obtidas em estimulação elétrica programada. Deste modo, nosso estudo constitui-se 35 casos de IM com extra-sistoles espontâneas ou provocadas e 11 controles sem IM. Com extra-sistolia (espontânea ou provocada). Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram estudados, e observaram-se, quais os pacientes que apresentaram nas extra-sístoles morfologia tipo QR (QRS, QRs, Qrs) com duração maior ou igual a 0,04 segundos, considerando-se este sinal como positivo para IM. A utilização do eletrocardiograma em ritmo sinusal para o diagnóstico de IM em nosso estudo levou a uma estimativa de sensibilidade em torno de 86% e uma especificidade de 91%.Como conseqüência direta destes achados, temos que do ponto de vista do eletrocardiograma em ritmo sinusal havia 31 pacientes supostamente com IM e 15 livres do desfecho. Não obstante, dos 31 supostos pacientes com IM, 30 eram verdadeiros positivos e 1 falso negativo. Por outro lado, dos 15 pacientes supostamente sem IM, havia 5 falsos negativos e 10 verdadeiramente negativos. Tomando o grupo de pacientes supostamente livres de IM, como foco de ação corretiva para diagnóstico do ECG em ritmo sinusal, tem-se a necessidade de reverter uma taxa de falsos negativos de 14% Aplicando-se os critérios diagnósticos de IM no ECG obtido em extra-sístoles verifica-se que, apesar de ocorrer uma queda na especificidade, temos uma estimativa de sensibilidade em torno de 100%. Assim, a utilização combinada do ECG em extra-sístoles seguindo o ECG em ritmo sinusal promove a redução da taxa de falsos negativos de 14% para 0% enquanto que enquanto que a proporção de falsos positivos ficou em torno de 27%. Desta forma, a análise da morfologia das extra-sístoles supraventriculares e ventriculares podem ser de utilidade no diagnóstico de IM quando a morfologia dos batimentos sinusais é não diagnostica