Assessment of Atlantic Red Drum for 1999: Northern and southern regions

An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Population characteristics of gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus

The status of the Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purse-seine landings data from 1946 to 1997 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1997. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fi shing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The separable virtual population approach was used for the period 1976–97 (augmented by earlier analyses for 1964–75) to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age 1, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates for age-1 fi sh ranged between 11% and 45%, for age-2 fi sh between 32% and 72%, and for age-3 fi sh between 32% and 76%. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (F0.1: 1.5–2.5/yr) and spawning potential ratio (F20: 1.3–1.9/yr and F30: 0.8–1.2/yr) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.6–0.8/yr). Recent spawning stock estimates (as biomass or eggs) are above the long-term average, while recent recruits to age 1 are comparable to the long-term average. Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Recent survival to age-1 recruitment has generally been below that expected based on the Ricker spawner-recruit relation. Estimates of long-term MSY from PRODFIT and ASPIC estimation of production model ranged between 717,000 t and 753,000 t, respectively. Declines in landings between 1988 and 1992 raised concerns about the status of the Gulf menhaden stock. Landings have fl uctuated without trend since 1992, averaging about 571,000 t. However, Gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1, largely mediated by environmental conditions, infl uences fi shing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fi sh). Comparisons of recent estimates of fi shing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)

Variation in size of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) within individual purse-seine sets

ENGLISH:Length-frequency samples of yellowfin tuna from 276 individual purse-seine sets were examined. Evidence of schooling by size is presented. Yellowfin schooled with skipjack are smaller and more homogeneous in length than are yellowfin from pure schools. Yellowfin in schools associated with porpoise appear to be more variable in size than yellowfin from other types of schools. No relationship was found between the tonnage of yellowfin in a school and the mean length of the yellowfin. Despite the tendency to school by size, the size variation within individual schools was judged to be enough to complicate greatly any program of regulation aimed at maximizing the yield-per-recruit through increasing the minimum size of yellowfin at first capture. SPANISH: Fueron examinadas las muestras frecuencia-longitud de atún aleta amarilla, de 276 lances individuales de redes de cerco. Se presenta la evidencia de agrupación por tamaños. Los atunes aleta amarilla agrupados con barrilete, son más pequeños y más homogéneos en longitud, que los atunes aleta amarilla de cardúmenes puros. El atún aleta amarilla en cardúmenes asociados con delfines parece ser más variable en tamaño, que el atún aleta amarilla proveniente de otros tipos de cardúmenes. No se encontró relac¡'ón entre el tonelaje del atún aleta amarilla en un cardumen y la longitud media de esta especie. A pesar de la tendencia a agruparse por tamaño, se juzgó, que la variación de tamaño en cardúmenes individuales, sería suficiente para complicar grandemente cualquier programa de reglamentación, dirigido a obtener el máximo del rendimiento por recluta a través del incremento del tamaño mínimo del atún aleta amarilla en la primera captura.

Population Characteristics of Gulf Menhaden, Brevoortia patronus

The status of the gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purseseine landing data from 1946 to 1992 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1992. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fishing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population approaches were used to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age I, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates ranged between 14% and 45% for age-1 fish, between 30% and 72% for age-2 fish, and between 36% and 71% for age-3 fish. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (FO. I: 0.7-0.9 yr-1) and maximum spawning potential (F20: 1.62.9 yr-l and F30: 1.0-2.1 yr-1) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.4-0.8 yr-l). Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Estimates of long-term MSY from fits of the generalized production model ranged between 664,000 metric tons (t) and 897,000 t. Declines in landings since 1988 have raised concerns about the status of the gulf menhaden stock. However, gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1 largely mediated by environmental conditions influences fishing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fish). Comparisons of recent estimates of fishing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 26 pages.)

Codend selection of winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus

Codend selection of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) in 76-127 mm mesh codends was examined from experiments conducted in Long Island Sound during the spring of 1986-87. The results show a slightly larger size at selection than was found in earlier work as indicated by the selection factor, 2.31 in the present study compared with 2.2 and 2.24 from previous studies. Diamond mesh was found to have a length at 50% retention about 1 cm longer (Lso =22.6 cm), and a selection range (3.4 cm) about 1 cm narrower, than square mesh in 102-mm codends. Tow duration varied from 1 to 2 hours using 114-mm diamond mesh. As has been found in previous studies, tow duration and Lso are positively related, with I-hour tows averaging 24.6 cm and 2-hour tows averaging 26.6 cm. The importance of the slope of the selection curve was examined in yield-per-recruit analyses by comparing knife-edge and stepwise recruitment. In all mesh sizes, stepwise recruitment provides a more conservative estimate of yield in the presence of a minimum size limit. Differences in yield estimates between the two models were generally small (1-7%), except in the largest mesh size, 127 mm, where yield is overestimated by 10% when assuming knife-edge recruitment. (PDF file contains 16 pages.)

Stock assessment of the Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, fishery

A stock assessment of the Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, fishery was conducted with purse-seine landings data from 1940 to 1984 and port sampling data from 1955 to 1984. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, maximum sustainable yield (MSY), spawner-recruit relationships, and yield per recruit. Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year class size, and fishing mortality rates. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 450 to 490 kmt compared with yields of 416to 436 kmt based roughly on maximum recruitment from a weak spawner-recruit relationship. Recruitment to age-I ranged from 1.2 to 14.8 billion fish for year classes 1955-81. Recent mean recruitment to age-I for the 1975-81 year classes averaged 5.7 billion fish and compared favorably with the mean of 7.7 billion age-I fish recruited during the late 1950's. Mean recruitment from recent years suggests possible coastwide yields of 416 to 481 kmt. Continued dominance of late age-2 spawners among the spawning stock is of concern, since the stock is at greater risk through poor recruitment if recent favorable environmental conditions change. Yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 46 g to 59 g since 1970. The high dependency of the modern fishery on prespawners has increased concerns about fluctuations in year-to-year availability and catches. To increase yield and enhance the stability of the resource, the number of age classes contributing significantly to the fishery should be increased, creating a butTer against future poor recruitment years and lessening the year-to-year fluctuations in landings. (PDF file contains 24 pages.)

Stock assessment of the gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery

A stock assessment of the gulf menhaden. Brevoortia patronus, fishery was conducted with data on purse-seine landings from 1946 to 1985 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1985. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, yield-per-recruit, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year-class size, and fishing mortality rates. During the period studied, an average of 27% of age-l fish and 55% of age-2 and age-3 fish were taken by the fishery, and 54% for age-I and 38% for age-2 and -3 fish were lost annually to natural causes. Annual yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 6.9 to 19.3 g, with recent mean conditions averaging 12.2 g since 1978. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 620 to 700 kilometric tons. Recruits to age-I ranged from 8.3 to 41.8 billion fish for 1964-82. Although there was substantial scatter about the fitted curves, Ricker·type spawner-recruit relationships were found suitable for use in a population simulation model. Estimates of MSY from population simulation model runs ranged from 705 to 825 kilometric tons with F -multiples of the mean rate of fishing ranging from 1.0 to 1.5. Recent harvests in excess of the historical MSY may not be detrimental to the gulf menhaden stock. However, one should not expect long-term harvesting above the historical MSY because of the short life span of gulf menhaden and possible changes from currently favorable environmental conditions supporting high recruitment.(PDF file contains 24 pages.)

Population dynamics of the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, in the Gulf of Panama, as determined by tagging experiments

ENGLISH: The anchoveta is the major constituent of the important bait and reduction fisheries of the Gulf of Panama. It is a short-lived species, the great majority of the catch consisting of fish in their first year of life. Fish for reduction are caught chiefly in the Isla Verde area, between Punta Chame and the entrance of the Panama Canal. In 1960 and 1961 anchovetas were tagged with metal internal tags and released in the major areas of occurrence of this species. The tags were recovered from the meal in the reduction plants with magnets. From the 53,380 fish tagged in 1960, 745 tags were returned during the 1960 season, 246 during the 1961 season, and 8 during the 1962 season. From the 113,202 tagged in 1961, 373 tags were returned during the 1961 season and 48 during the 1962 season. Complete catch statistics are available, and length-frequency and length-weight data were used to convert these from pounds to numbers of fish of each year class. The annual survival rate for the fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area was estimated to be 0.086 by the Chapman-Robson method, 0.102 by the year-class method, and 0.088 by the Jackson positive method. The first method is considered to give the best estimate. Six estimates of the population of fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area were obtained from the sample tag ratios of six experiments conducted in that area in 1960. The estimates differed due to the temporal decrease in the population, but the downward trend corresponded fairly well to what was expected from the total annual mortality rate. It was estimated that the population of 1959-year class fish was about 818 million on March 8, 1960, and about 70 million on March 8, 1961. As the population of anchovetas decreases during the season the effort increases sufficiently that the catch remains roughly constant. This is described as the "constant absolute catch" type fishery. Of the original population of fish in the Isla Verde area at the beginning of the 1960 season, about 11 per cent were caught and 81 per cent died of natural causes. Evaluation of growth and mortality data demonstrated that beginning the fishery for the youngest age group later than March 8 (the date it began in 1960) would reduce the yield per recruit, while increasing the fishing effort would greatly increase it. Further, it is believed unlikely that increases in the catch in the Isla Verde area alone would noticeably decrease the number of recruits to that area. Therefore there is no foreseeable need for regulation of the fishery. SPANISH: El principal constituyente de la importante pesquería para carnada y para reducción en el Golfo de Panamá es la anchoveta. Es una especie de vida corta cuya pesca, en su mayor parte, está constituida por peces que se encuentran en su primer año de vida. Para la industria de reducción los peces son capturados principalmente en el área de Isla Verde, entre Punta Chame y la entrada del Canal de Panamá. En 1960 y 1961 las anchovetas fueron marcadas con marcas metálicas internas y liberadas en las áreas más importantes en que se encuentra esta especie. Las marcas fueron recobradas de la harina en las plantas de reducción por medio de magnetos. De los 53,380 peces marcados en 1960, fueron devueltas 745 marcas durante la temporada pesquera de 1960, 246 durante la de 1961, y 8 durante la de 1962. De los 113,202 marcados en 1961, 373 marcas fueron devueltas durante la temporada pesquera de 1961 y 48 durante la de 1962. Se dispone de estadísticas completas de captura, y los datos de frecuencia-longitud y de longitud-peso fueron usados para convertir éstos de libras a números de peces de cada clase anual. La tasa anual de supervivencia correspondiente a la clase anual de 1959 en el área de Isla Verde estimó en 0.086 por medio del método Chapman-Robson; en 0.102 por método de la clase anual; y en 0.088 por el método positivo de Jackson. Se considera que el primer método dé la mejor estimación. Seis estimaciones de la población de peces de la clase anual 1959 en el área de Isla Verde fueron obtenidas según la proporción de marcas halladas en las muestras correspondientes a seis experimentos efectuados en aquella área en 1960. Las estimaciones variaron debido a la disminución temporal de la población, pero esta tendencia descendente correspondió bastante bien a lo que se esperaba según la tasa total de mortalidad anual. Se estimó que la población de peces de la clase anual de 1959 era de unos 818 millones el 8 de marzo de 1960, y aproximadamente de unos 70 millones el 8 de marzo de 1961. Conforme a que la población de anchovetas disminuye durante la temporada pesquera, el esfuerzo aumenta lo suficientemente como para que la pesca se mantenga más o menos constante. Este es el tipo de pesquería descrito como de "captura absoluta constante". De la población original de peces en el área de Isla Verde al comienzo de la temporada pesquera de 1960, cerca del 11 por ciento fue capturada y el 81 por ciento murió por causas naturales. La evaluación de los datos del crecimiento mortalidad demostraron que al comenzar la pesquería a explotar grupo de edad más joven en una fecha posterior al 8 de marzo (la fecha en que comenzó en 1960) se reduciría el rendimiento por recluta, mientras que al aumentar el esfuerzo de pesca lo aumentaría considerablemente. Más aún, se cree improbable que el aumento en la pesca en el área de Isla Verde de por sí disminuyera perceptiblemente el número de reclutas en esa área. En consecuencia no se prevé la necesidad de una reglamentación de la pesquería. (PDF contains 172 pages.)

Growth, mortality, and exploitation of the Engraulidae, with special reference to the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, and the colorado, Anchoa naso, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Growth and mortality data for Cetengraulis mysticetus, Anchoa naso, Engraulis mordax, E. ring ens, E. anchoita, E. encraslcbolus, E. japonicus, and E. australis were assembled and compared. Estimates of the coefficients of natural mortality, M, of E. anchoita and Ancboa naso were made from the maximum age of the former and from data for the other species. The relative yields per recruit at different fishing mortality rates and lengths at entry into the fishery were calculated for each species, using what are considered to be the best estimates and other likely values of K, a constant of growth, and M. The maximum yields per recruit are theoretically obtainable at very high fishing mortality rates, except when the length at entry is low relative to the asymptotic length. K and M may be positively related to the temperature and to each other, and if such is the case at higher temperatures greater fishing effort would be needed to attain the maximum yield per recruit. The applicability of the yield-per-recruit approach to the data is discussed, and suggestions for further research are made. SPANISH: Se reunieron y compararon los datos sobre el crecimiento y mortalidad correspondientes a Cetengraulis mysticetus, Anchoa naso, Engraulis mordax, E. ringens, E. anchoíta, E. encrasicbolus, E. japonicus y E. australls. Los estimativos de los coeficientes de la mortalidad natural, M, de E. anchoita y Anchoa naso se obtuvieron según la edad máxima de E. anchoita y según los datos de las otras especies. Se calculó para cada especie el rendimiento relativo por recluta a diferentes tasas de mortalidad por la pesca y a diferentes longitudes de entrada a la pesquería, empleándose lo que se considera que son los mejores estimativos y otros valores probables de K, una constante de crecímíento, y M. El rendimiento máximo por recluta se obtiene teóricamente a tasas muy altas de la mortalidad por la pesca con excepción de cuando la longitud a la entrada es baja en relación a la longitud asintótica. K y M pueden estar relacionadas positivamente a la temperatura y mutuamente, y si este es el caso a temperaturas más altas se necesitará un esfuerzo superior de pesca para obtener el rendimiento máximo por recluta. La aplicabilidad del enfoque a los datos rendimiento-por-recluta es discutido y se hacen sugerencias para otras investigaciones. (PDF contains 66 pages.)

Untersuchungen des Zanderbestandes in den deutschen Küstengewässern der Ostsee von 1992 bis 2002

Pike-perch is an important resource for the coastal fishery in the brackish waters of the eastern part of the coast. For the conservation of the stocks regulation measures (minimum landing size, closed season and minimum mesh size) have been introduced since many years. Basic biological material of the last decade sampled from the commercial fishery and for recruitment by a standard trawl survey. For the “Eastern stock” this paper presents the results concerning age distribution, year-class strengths, growth, proportion spawners, natural mortality and yield-per-recruit analyses.

Predictions of fish yields and the status of the Kainji Lake fishery, 1998

Length frequency data was collected for the 6 main species from the Kainji Lake fishery for up to 16 months. Growth parameters were estimated and used for virtual - population and length based cohort analysis. The results from cohort analysis suggest that before the ban on beach seines the maximum economic yield from the fishery was overshot by 70%. Yield per recruit analysis showed that the fish are caught far below their optimum size. Fishing gears and the timing responsible for this early mortality have been identified. After the eradication of seines from the lake a 10% increase in total catch revenue can be expected from the fishery. This is equivalent to an increase in income of Naira 18,300 per annum for each fishing entrepreneur using other methods. A scenario for the regulation of cast net mesh size together with the ban of beach seines has been presented. A further increase of Naira 142 million (N25,500 per entrepreneur) can be anticipated if this is implemented by the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit. It is expected that the annual increase in fishing effort presently experienced will cause future yields to decline. The rate of the decline has been reduced by the eradication of the beach seine fishery and will further fall if the minimum mesh size for cast nets is implemented. A recommendation is made to the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit to first consolidate the beach seine ban and then to implement a ban of undersized cast nets. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Biology and assessment of the painted sweetlips (Diagramma pictum (Thunberg, 1792)) and the spangled emperor (Lethrinus nebulosus (Forsskål, 1775)) in the southern Arabian Gulf

The population biology and status of the painted sweeplips (Diagramma pictum) and spangled emperor (Lethrinus nebulosus) in the southern Arabian Gulf were established by using a combination of size-frequency, biological, and size-at-age data. Transverse sections of sagittal otoliths were characterized by alternating translucent and opaque bands that were validated as annuli. Comparisons of growth characteristics showed that there were no significant differences (P>0.05) between sexes. There were well defined peaks in the reproductive cycle, spawning occurred from April to May for both species, and the mean size at which females attained sexual maturity was 31.8 cm fork length (LF) for D. pictum and 27.6 cm (LF) for L. nebulosus. The mean sizes at first capture (21.1 cm LF for D. pictum and 26.4 cm LF for L. nebulosus) were smaller than the sizes for both at first sexual maturity and those at which yield per recruit would be maximized. The range of fishing-induced mortality rates for D. pictum (0.37−0.62/yr) was substantially greater than the target (Fopt=0.07/yr) and limit (Flimit=0.09/ yr) estimates. The range of fishing-induced mortality rates for L. nebulosus (0.15/yr to 0.57/yr) was also in excess of biological reference points (Fopt=0.10/yr and Flimit=0.13/yr). In addition to growth overfishing, the stocks were considered to be recruitment overfished because the biomass per recruit was less than 20% of the unexploited levels for both species. The results of the study are important to fisheries management authorities in the region because they indicate that both a reduction in fishing effort and mesh-size regulations are required for the demersal trap fishery.

Population dynamics and exploitation of Metapenaeus affinis in Kuwaiti waters

Length-frequency data of Metapenaeus affinis collected from the trawl catches of R/V Bahith in Kuwaiti waters from 1985 to 1989 were combined with estimates of monthly total catch by the commercial and small-scale fleets operating in Kuwait, and analyzed using the Compleat ELEFAN software package. A major recruitment pulse of M. affinis occurs in spring and a minor one in autumn. Optimum relative yield per recruit (Y'/R) is obtained with the length-at-first capture (L sub(c)) of 24.4 cm CL for females and < 17.6 m CL for males. Virtual population analysis results indicated that the biomasses have decreased during the last three-year period for which data were available.

Biological reference points for managing kingfish, Scomberomorus commerson, in Oman

The 1987-1995 length composition of quarterly catches of Scomberomorus commerson (Lacepede 1800) was analyzed to determine various biological reference points for management purposes. These include: fishing mortality producing maximum yield-per-recruit in weight (F sub(max)), fishing mortality producing 50% relative mean mature biomass (F sub(50)), and fishing mortality producing recruits that would exactly replace their parent stock (F sub(rep)). F sub(max) provided misleading suggestions to increase fishing mortality on the stock which is currently at a low level. On the other hand, both F sub(50) and F sub(rep) provided acceptable results, suggesting reduction on the current fishing mortality by 17-40%.