Wildfire susceptibility modelling in mainland Portugal

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2015

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Decision making effectiveness in wildfire incident management teams

During large scale wildfires, suppression activities are carried out under the direction of an Incident Management Team (IMT). The aim of the research was to increase understanding of decision processes potentially related to IMT effectiveness. An IMT comprises four major functions: Command, Operations, Planning, and Logistics. Four methodologies were used to study IMT processes: computer simulation experiments; analyses of wildfire reports; interviews with IMT members; and cognitive ethnographic studies of IMTs. Three processes were important determinants of IMT effectiveness: information management and cognitive overload; matching component function goals to overall goals; and team metacognition to detect and counter task-disruptive developments. These processes appear to be complex multi-person analogues of individual Incident Command processes identified previously. The findings have implications for issues such as: creating IMTs; training IMTs; managing IMTs; and providing decision support to IMTs.

The effect of prescribed fluid consumption on physiology and work behavior of wildfire fighters

The purpose of this study was to examine 1) wildfire fighters' ability to consume the prescribed fluid volume (1200 mL h-1), 2) the effect of fluid intake on plasma sodium and hydration, and 3) the effect of fluid intake on firefighters' heart rate, core temperature and activity during emergency suppression shifts. Methods: Thirty-four firefighters were divided into ad libitum (AD, n = 17) and prescribed (PR, n = 17) drinking groups. Results: PR drinkers did not meet the prescribed fluid target, yet consumed over double the volume of AD drinkers. No differences between groups in plasma sodium or hydration were noted. PR drinking resulted in lower core temperature between 2 and 6 h. This did not coincide with reduced cardiovascular strain, greater work activity or larger distances covered when compared to AD drinkers. Conclusion: Extra fluid consumption (above AD) did not improve firefighter activity or physiological function (though PR firefighters core temperature was lower earlier in their shift). Firefighter can self-regulate their fluid consumption behavior and work rate to leave the fireground euhydrated.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

From emotional suppression to regulated empathy : the changing face of control in the CES

Between the 1970s and the 1990s the level and type of emotionality in the Commonwealth Employment Service (the Australian national employment service) altered. Within a context of changing economic conditions and concomitant work intensification, it is argued that untenable working conditions resulted in new recruits adopting a coping strategy that led to the use rather than the suppression of emotions. The use of emotions provided workers with job satisfaction and greater control over service interactions. Management subsequently commandeered the use of emotions to complement the introduction of private sector management techniques and service delivery reforms, regaining control over worker-client interactions.

Observation of the suppression of water uptake by marine particles

A 4 week intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March–April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site on the east coast of Australia. A Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was used to investigate changes in the hygroscopic properties of ambient particles as volatile components were progressively evaporated. Nine out of 18 VH-TDMA volatility scans detected internally mixed multi-component particles in the nucleation and Aitken modes in clean marine air. Evaporation of a volatile, organic-like component in the VH-TDMA caused significant increases in particle hygroscopicity. In 3 scans the increase in hygroscopicity was so large it was explained by an increase in the absolute volume of water uptake by the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicates the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). This observation was supported by ZSR calculations for one scan, which showed that the measured growth factors of mixed particles were up to 18% below those predicted assuming independent water uptake of the individual particle components. The observed suppression of water uptake could be due to a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth caused by the presence of organic films or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity.

Melanoma cell invasiveness is regulated by miR-211 suppression of the BRN2 transcription factor

To identify microRNAs potentially involved in melanomagenesis, we compared microRNA expression profiles between melanoma cell lines and cultured melanocytes. The most differentially expressed microRNA between the normal and tumor cell lines was miR-211. We focused on this pigment-cell-enriched miRNA as it is derived from the microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF)-regulated gene, TRPM1 (melastatin). We find that miR-211 expression is greatly decreased in melanoma cells and melanoblasts compared to melanocytes. Bioinformatic analysis identified a large number of potential targets of miR-211, including POU3F2 (BRN2). Inhibition of miR-211 in normal melanocytes resulted in increased BRN2 protein, indicating that endogenous miR-211 represses BRN2 in differentiated cells. Over-expression of miR-211 in melanoma cell lines changed the invasive potential of the cells in vitro through directly targeting BRN2 translation. We propose a model for the apparent non-overlapping expression levels of BRN2 and MITF in melanoma, mediated by miR-211 expression.

Antisense-mediated suppression of hyaluronan synthase 2 inhibits the tumorigenesis and progression of breast cancer

The progression of several cancers is correlated with the increased synthesis of the glycosaminoglycan, hyaluronan. Hyaluronan is synthesized at the plasma membrane by various isoforms of hyaluronan synthases (HAS). The importance of HAS2 expression in highly invasive breast cancer was characterized by the antisense inhibition of HAS2 (ASHAS2). The effect of HAS2 inhibition on cell proliferation, migration, hyaluronan metabolism, and receptor status was characterized in vitro, whereas the effect on tumorigenicity and metastasis was established in vivo. HAS2 inhibition resulted in a 24-hour lag in proliferation that was concomitant to transient arrest of 79% of the cell population in G 0-G1. Inhibition of HAS2 did not alter the expression of the other HAS isoforms, whereas hyaluronidase (HYAL2) and the hyaluronan receptor, CD44, were significantly down-regulated. ASHAS2 cells accumulated greater amounts of high molecular weight hyaluronan (>10,000 kDa) in the culture medium, whereas mock and parental cells liberated less hyaluronan of three distinct molecular weights (100, 400, and 3,000 kDa). The inhibition of HAS2 in the highly invasive MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cell line inhibited the initiation and progression of primary and secondary tumor formation following s.c. and intracardiac inoculation into nude mice, whereas controls readily established both primary and secondary tumors. The lack of primary and secondary tumor formation was manifested by increased survival times where ASHAS2 animals survived 172% longer than the control animals. Collectively, these unique results strongly implicate the central role of HAS2 in the initiation and progression of breast cancer, potentially highlighting the codependency between HAS2, CD44, and HYAL2 expression. ©2005 American Association for Cancer Research.

ST7-mediated suppression of tumorigenicity of prostate cancer cells is characterized by remodeling of the extracellular matrix

Multiple lines of evidence have provided compelling evidence for the existence of a tumor suppressor gene (TSG) on chromosome 7q31.1. ST7 may be the target of this genetic instability but its designation as a TSG is controversial. In this study, we show that, functionally, ST7 behaves as a tumor suppressor in human cancer. ST7 suppressed growth of PC-3 prostate cancer cells inoculated subcutaneously into severe combined immunodeficient mice, and increased the latency of tumor detection from 13 days in control tumors to 23 days. Re-expression of ST7 was also associated with suppression of colony formation under anchorage-independent conditions in MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells and ST7 mRNA expression was downregulated in 44% of primary breast cancers. Expression profiling of PC-3 cells revealed that ST7 predominantly induces changes in genes involved in re-modeling the extracellular matrix such as SPARC, IGFBP5 and several matrix metalloproteinases. These data indicate that ST7 may mediate tumor suppression through modification of the tumor microenvironment.

Non-square-well potential profile and suppression of blinking in compositionally graded Cd1−xZnxSe/CdxZn1−xSe nanocrystals

Random blinking is a major problem on the way to successful applications of semiconducting nanocrystals in optoelectronics and photonics, which until recently had neither a practical solution nor a theoretical interpretation. An experimental breakthrough has recently been made by fabricating non-blinking Cd1-xZnxSe/ZnSe graded nanocrystals [Wang et al., Nature, 2009, 459, 686]. Here, we (1) report an unequivocal and detailed theoretical investigation to understand the properties (e.g., profile) of the potential-well and the distribution of Zn content with respect to the nanocrystal radius and (2) develop a strategy to find the relationship between the photoluminescence (PL) energy peaks and the potential-well due to Zn distribution in nanocrystals. It is demonstrated that the non-square-well potential can be varied in such a way that one can indeed control the PL intensity and the energy-level difference (PL energy peaks) accurately. This implies that one can either suppress the blinking altogether, or alternatively, manipulate the PL energy peaks and intensities systematically to achieve a controlled non-random intermittent luminescence. The approach developed here is based on the ionization energy approximation and as such is generic and can be applied to any non-free-electron nanocrystals.