Proyecci��n de poblaci��n = Population projection

Incluye CD-ROM

Proyecci��n de poblaci��n = Population projection

Incluye CD-ROM

Population projection model for small island countries, an illustration for Aruba 2003-2023

Includes bibliography

Am��rica Latina: proyecciones de poblaci��n, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicaci��n biling��e (Espa��ol e ingl��s)

Am��rica Latina: proyecciones de poblaci��n, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicaci��n biling��e (Espa��ol e ingl��s)

Am��rica Latina: proyecciones de poblaci��n, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicaci��n biling��e (Espa��ol e ingl��s)

Am��rica Latina: proyecciones de poblaci��n, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicaci��n biling��e (Espa��ol e ingl��s)

Am��rica Latina: proyecciones de poblaci��n, 1970-2050 = Latin America: population projection, 1970-2050

Publicaci��n biling��e (Espa��ol e ingl��s)

Genetic diversity and population structure of Musa accessions in ex situ conservation

Abstract Background Banana cultivars are mostly derived from hybridization between wild diploid subspecies of Musa acuminata (A genome) and M. balbisiana (B genome), and they exhibit various levels of ploidy and genomic constitution. The Embrapa ex situ Musa collection contains over 220 accessions, of which only a few have been genetically characterized. Knowledge regarding the genetic relationships and diversity between modern cultivars and wild relatives would assist in conservation and breeding strategies. Our objectives were to determine the genomic constitution based on Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) regions polymorphism and the ploidy of all accessions by flow cytometry and to investigate the population structure of the collection using Simple Sequence Repeat (SSR) loci as co-dominant markers based on Structure software, not previously performed in Musa. Results From the 221 accessions analyzed by flow cytometry, the correct ploidy was confirmed or established for 212 (95.9%), whereas digestion of the ITS region confirmed the genomic constitution of 209 (94.6%). Neighbor-joining clustering analysis derived from SSR binary data allowed the detection of two major groups, essentially distinguished by the presence or absence of the B genome, while subgroups were formed according to the genomic composition and commercial classification. The co-dominant nature of SSR was explored to analyze the structure of the population based on a Bayesian approach, detecting 21 subpopulations. Most of the subpopulations were in agreement with the clustering analysis. Conclusions The data generated by flow cytometry, ITS and SSR supported the hypothesis about the occurrence of homeologue recombination between A and B genomes, leading to discrepancies in the number of sets or portions from each parental genome. These phenomenons have been largely disregarded in the evolution of banana, as the ���single-step domestication��� hypothesis had long predominated. These findings will have an impact in future breeding approaches. Structure analysis enabled the efficient detection of ancestry of recently developed tetraploid hybrids by breeding programs, and for some triploids. However, for the main commercial subgroups, Structure appeared to be less efficient to detect the ancestry in diploid groups, possibly due to sampling restrictions. The possibility of inferring the membership among accessions to correct the effects of genetic structure opens possibilities for its use in marker-assisted selection by association mapping.

Maternal Smoking Impact on the Delivery Cost: a population-based study in the Emilia-Romagna region

This doctoral thesis is devoted to the study of the causal effects of the maternal smoking on the delivery cost. The interest of economic consequences of smoking in pregnancy have been studied fairly extensively in the USA, and very little is known in European context. To identify the causal relation between different maternal smoking status and the delivery cost in the Emilia-Romagna region two distinct methods were used. The first - geometric multidimensional - is mainly based on the multivariate approach and involves computing and testing the global imbalance, classifying cases in order to generate well-matched comparison groups, and then computing treatment effects. The second - structural modelling - refers to a general methodological account of model-building and model-testing. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the global mechanism into sub-mechanisms though a recursive decomposition of a multivariate distribution.

Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Habitat use by Darling Downs population of the grassland earless dragon: implications for conservation.

A population of the grassland earless dragon (Tympanocryptis pinguicolla) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia, had been considered extinct until its recent rediscovery. We determined factors affecting grassland earless dragon abundance and prey availability in 3 habitats. Mean dragon body condition and prey numbers were higher in sorghum than grasslands and grass verges. Poisson regression analyses indicated that the dragon numbers were 10 times higher in sorghum, and that this may result from differences in prey numbers as well as other habitat conditions. Tracking data indicated selection of open versus closed microhabitat. Sorghum planted in rows provided alternating open and closed microhabitats for optimal thermoregulation conditions. Grasslands and grass verges were more uniformly shaded. Of individuals we tracked in the sorghum stubble, 85.7% used litter as overnight refuges. Litter was abundant in sorghum and sparse in grass habitats. The practices of minimum tillage and resting stubble strips possibly mitigate agricultural impacts on dragons and provide continuous access to suitable habitat. Changes in agricultural practices that affect the habitat suitability will potentially have detrimental impacts on the population. Our data suggest that conservation efforts be focused on maintaining suitability of habitats in crop fields. We recommend monitoring dragon abundance at control and trial sites of any new agricultural practices; this will provide opportunity to modify or stop undesirable practices before adoption by farmers. Conservation agencies may use our data as a baseline for monitoring long-term viability of the population.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.