Counteracting the climate effects of volcanic eruptions using short-lived greenhouse gases

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

Speleothems as sensitive recorders of volcanic eruptions - the Bronze Age Minoan eruption recorded in a stalagmite from Turkey

Mounting evidence exists that variations in sulphur content in stalagmites are closely linked to changes in volcanic or anthropogenic atmospheric sulphur. The strong dependency of sulphur on soil pH and ecosystem storage, however, can result in a delay of several years to decades in the registration of volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic emissions by stalagmites. Here we present synchrotron-radiation based trace element analysis performed on a precisely-dated section of a stalagmite from Sofular Cave in Northern Turkey. As this section covers the time interval of the intensively studied Minoan volcanic eruption between 1600 and 1650 BC, we can test whether this vigorous eruption can be traced in a stalagmite. Of all measured trace elements, only bromine shows a clear short-lived peak at 1621±251621±25 BC, whereas sulphur and molybdenum show peaks later at 1617±251617±25 and 1589±251589±25 respectively. We suggest that all trace element peaks are related to the Minoan eruption, whereas the observed phasing of bromine, molybdenum and sulphur is related to differences in their retention rates in the soil above Sofular Cave. For the first time, we can show that bromine appears to be an ideal volcanic tracer in stalagmites, as it is a prominent volatile component in volcanic eruptions, can be easily leached in soils and rapidly transferred from the atmosphere through the soil and bedrock into the cave and stalagmite respectively. Highly resolved oxygen and carbon isotope profiles indicate that the Minoan eruption had no detectable climatic and environmental impact in Northern Turkey.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Mid-Holocene (4200 kyr BP) mass mortalities in Mauritius (Mascarenes): insular vertebrates resilient to climatic extremes but vulnerable to human impact

In the light of the currently increasing drought frequency and water scarcity on oceanic islands, it is crucial for the conservation of threatened insular vertebrates to assess how they will be affected. A 4000 yr old fossil assemblage in the Mare Aux Songes (MAS), southwest Mauritius, Mascarene Islands, contains bones of 100 000+ individual vertebrates, dominated by two species of giant tortoises Cylindraspis triserrata and C. inepta, the dodo Raphus cucullatus, and 20 other vertebrate species (Rijsdijk, Hume, Bunnik, Florens, Baider, Shapiro et al. (2009) Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus). Quaternary Science Reviews 28: 14–24). Nine radiocarbon dates of bones statistically overlap and suggest mass mortality occurred between 4235 and 4100 cal. yr BP. The mortality period coincides with a widely recognized megadrought event. Our multidisciplinary investigations combining geological, paleontological and hydrological evidence suggests the lake was located in a dry coastal setting and had desiccated during this period. Oxygen isotope data from a Uranium-series dated stalagmite from Rodrigues, an island 560 km east of Mauritius, supports this scenario by showing frequently alternating dry and wet periods lasting for decades between 4122 and 2260 cal. yr BP. An extreme drought resulted in falling water-tables at MAS and elsewhere on the island, perhaps deprived these insular vertebrates of fresh water, which led to natural mass mortalities and possibly to extirpations. In spite of these events, all insular species survived until at least the seventeenth century, confirming their resistance to climatic extremes. Despite this, the generally exponential increase of combined human impacts on islands including loss of geodiversity, habitats, and stocks of fresh water, there will be less environmental safe-haven options for insular endemic and native vertebrates during future megadrought conditions; and therefore will be more prone to extinction.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

SO2 sequestration in large volcanic eruptions:high-temperature scavenging by tephra

It is well accepted that the climate impact of large explosive volcanic eruptions results from reduction of solar radiation following atmospheric conversion of magmatic SO emissions into HSO aerosols. Thus, understanding the fate of SO in the eruption plume is crucial for better assessing volcanic forcing of climate. Here we focus on the potential of tephra to interact with and remove SO gas from the eruptive plume. Scavenging of SO by tephra is generally assumed to be driven by in-plume, low-temperature reactions between HSO condensates and tephra particles. However, the importance of SO gas-tephra interaction above the dew point temperature of HSO (190-200°C) has never been constrained. Here we report the results of an experimental study where silicate glasses with representative volcanic compositions were exposed to SO in the temperature range 25-800°C. We show that above 600°C, the uptake of SO on glass exhibits optimal efficiency and emplaces surficial CaSO deposits. This reaction is sustained via Ca diffusion from the bulk to the surface of the glass particles. At 800°C, the diffusion coefficient for Ca in the glasses was in the range 10-10cms. We suggest that high temperature SO scavenging by glass-rich tephra proceeds by the same Ca diffusion-driven mechanism. Using a simple mathematical model, we estimated SO scavenging efficiencies at 800°C varying from

El Estribo Volcanic Complex: Evolution from a shield volcano to a cinder cone, Pátzcuaro Lake, Michoacán, México

El Estribo Volcanic Complex (EVC) is located in the northern part of the Michoacán–Guanajuato Volcanic Field within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). El Estribo is located at the southern edge of the E-W Pátzcuaro fault that belongs to the Pátzcuaro-Jarácuaro graben, a western extension of the E-W Morelia–Acambay fault system. Stratigraphy, geochronology, chemistry, and mineral assemblages suggest that the volcanic complex was constructed in two periods separated by a ~ 100 ka volcanic hiatus: a) emission of lava flows that constructed a shield volcano between 126 ka, and b) mixed phreatomagmatic to Strombolian activity that formed a cinder cone ~ 28 ka. The magmas that fed these monogenetic volcanoes were able to use the same feeding system. The cinder cone itself was constructed by Strombolian fallouts and remobilized scoria beds, followed by an erosion period, and by a mixed phreatomagmatic to magmatic phase (Strombolian fallouts ending with lava flows). Soft-sedimentary deformation of beds and impact sags, cross-bedding, as well as pitting and hydrothermal cracks found in particles support the phreatomagmatic phase. The erupted magmas through time ejected basaltic andesitic lava flows (56.21–58.88% SiO2) that built the shield volcano and then basaltic andesitic scoria (57.65–59.05% SiO2) that constructed the cinder cone. Although they used the same feeding system, the geochemical data and the mineral chemistry of the magmas indicate that the shield volcano and the cinder cone were fed by different magma batches erupted thousands of years apart. Therefore, the location of El Estribo Volcanic Complex along an E-W fault that has generated two sector collapses of the shield volcano to the north may be directly linked to this complex redistribution of the magmatic paths to the surface. Our findings show that magmatic feeding systems within monogenetic volcanic fields could be long lived, questioning the classic view of the monogenetic nature of their volcanoes and yielding information about the potential volcanic risk of these settings, usually considered risk-free.