Inflation and factor shares

We use results from the literature on the determinants of price-cost margins to derive an equation relating labor's share of national income to the inflation rate (as well as to the output gap, the unemployment rate and the capital stock per worker). The equation is tested with a panel of 15 OECD countries. We obtain a robust positive relationship between inflation and the labor share. Our results suggest that disinflation is not distributively neutral, provide empirical support for the distinct concern about price stability shown by trade unions and employers' organizations, and help explaining the negative impact of inflation on growth.

IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously determined regional groupings. We find that most of inflation variability is explained by the country specific disturbance term. Nevertheless, the contribution of the global component in explaining industrialised countries’ inflation rates has increased over time.

Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share theeconomically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptoticequivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step oriterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numericallyidentical overidentifyng restrictions tests, so there is arguably a single spanning test.To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in thelong run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanningusing size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

Statnote 11: the two-factor analysis of variance

Experiments combining different groups or factors are a powerful method of investigation in applied microbiology. ANOVA enables not only the effect of individual factors to be estimated but also their interactions; information which cannot be obtained readily when factors are investigated separately. In addition, combining different treatments or factors in a single experiment is more efficient and often reduces the number of replications required to estimate treatment effects adequately. Because of the treatment combinations used in a factorial experiment, the degrees of freedom (DF) of the error term in the ANOVA is a more important indicator of the ‘power’ of the experiment than simply the number of replicates. A good method is to ensure, where possible, that sufficient replication is present to achieve 15 DF for each error term of the ANOVA. Finally, in a factorial experiment, it is important to define the design of the experiment in detail because this determines the appropriate type of ANOVA. We will discuss some of the common variations of factorial ANOVA in future statnotes. If there is doubt about which ANOVA to use, the researcher should seek advice from a statistician with experience of research in applied microbiology.

Statnote 13: a more complex analysis of variance incorporating a 'repeated measures' factor

Experiments combining different groups or factors and which use ANOVA are a powerful method of investigation in applied microbiology. ANOVA enables not only the effect of individual factors to be estimated but also their interactions; information which cannot be obtained readily when factors are investigated separately. In addition, combining different treatments or factors in a single experiment is more efficient and often reduces the sample size required to estimate treatment effects adequately. Because of the treatment combinations used in a factorial experiment, the degrees of freedom (DF) of the error term in the ANOVA is a more important indicator of the ‘power’ of the experiment than the number of replicates. A good method is to ensure, where possible, that sufficient replication is present to achieve 15 DF for the error term of the ANOVA testing effects of particular interest. Finally, it is important to always consider the design of the experiment because this determines the appropriate ANOVA to use. Hence, it is necessary to be able to identify the different forms of ANOVA appropriate to different experimental designs and to recognise when a design is a split-plot or incorporates a repeated measure. If there is any doubt about which ANOVA to use in a specific circumstance, the researcher should seek advice from a statistician with experience of research in applied microbiology.

In Vivo Effects on the Expression of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A(165) Messenger Ribonucleic Acid of an Infrared Diode Laser Associated or Not with a Visible Red Diode Laser

Objective: This study investigated and correlated the kinetic expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A(165) messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) with the associated use or not of an infrared laser and a visible red laser during the wound healing in rats. Background Data: There is a lack of scientific evidence demonstrating the influence of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) on the expression of VEGF mRNA in vivo. Materials and Methods: Forty-five Wistar rats were randomly allocated to one of three groups: I (n = 5, nonoperated animals), II (n = 25, operated animals), and III (n = 25, animals operated and subjected to laser irradiation). A surgical wound was performed using a scalpel in the right side of the tongue of operated animals. In group III, two sessions of laser irradiation were performed, one right after the surgical procedure (infrared laser, 780 nm, 70mW, 35 J/cm(2)) and the other 48 h later (visible red laser, 660 nm, 40mW, 5J/cm(2)). Five animals each were sacrificed 1, 3, 5, and 7 days postoperatively in groups II and III, and samples of tongue tissue were obtained. The animals of group I were sacrificed on day 7. Total RNA was extracted using guanidine-isothiocyanate-phenol-chloroform method. The results of horizontal electrophoresis after reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction permitted the ratio of VEGF-A(165) mRNA and glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase mRNA expression for groups I, II, and III to be assessed (two-way analysis of variance and Tukey test, p<0.05). Results: The expression of VEGF-A(165) mRNA in group II (0.770 +/- 0.098) was statistically greater than that observed in groups I (0.523 +/- 0.164) and III (0.504 +/- 0.069) in the first day after surgery (p<0.05). Significant differences between the groups were not observed in other time periods. Conclusion: LLLT influenced the expression of VEGF-A(165) mRNA during wound healing after a surgical procedure on the tongue of Wistar rats.

Placental growth hormone (GH), GH-binding protein, and insulin-like growth factor axis in normal, growth-retarded, and diabetic pregnancies: Correlations with fetal growth

We previously described significant changes in GH-binding protein (GHBP) in pathological human pregnancy. There was a substantial elevation of GHBP in cases of noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and a reduction in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. GHBP has the potential to modulate the proportion of free placental GH (PGH) and hence the impact on the maternal GH/insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis, fetal growth, and maternal glycemic status. The present study was undertaken to investigate the relationship among glycemia, GHBP, and PGH during pregnancy and to assess the impact of GHBP on the concentration of free PGH. We have extended the analysis of specimens to include measurements of GHBP, PGH, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGF-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFSP-2, and IGFBP-3 and have related these to maternal characteristics, fetal growth, and glycemia. The simultaneous measurement of GHBP and PGH has for the first time allowed calculation of the free component of PGH and correlation of the free component to indexes of fetal growth and other endocrine markers. PGH, free PGH, IGF-I, and IGF-II were substantially decreased in IUGR at 28-30 weeks gestation (K28) and 36-38 weeks gestation (K36). The mean concentration (+/-SEM) of total PGH increased significantly from K28 to K36 (30.0 +/- 2.2 to 50.7 +/- 6.2 ng/mL; n = 40), as did the concentration of free PGH (23.4 +/- 2.3 to 43.7 +/- 6.0 ng/mL; n = 38). The mean percentage of free PGH was significantly less in IUGR than in normal subjects (67% vs. 79%; P < 0.01). Macrosomia was associated with an increase in these parameters that did not reach statistical significance. Multiple regression analysis revealed that PGH/IGF-I and IGFBP-5 account for 40% of the variance in birth weight. IGFBP-3 showed a significant correlation with IGF-I, IGF-II, and free and total PGK at K28 and K36. Noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients had a lower mean percentage of free PGH (65%; P < 0.01), and insulin-dependent diabetics had a higher mean percentage of free PGH (87%; P < 0.01) than normal subjects. Mean postprandial glucose at K28 correlated positively with PGH and free PGH (consistent with the hyperglycemic action of GH). GHBP correlated negatively with both postprandial and fasting glucose. Although GHBP correlated negatively with PGH (r = -0.52; P

Antenatal steroid and tracheal occlusion restore vascular endothelial growth factor receptors in congenital diaphragmatic hernia rat model

OBJECTIVE: Investigate the effects of antenatal steroids and tracheal occlusion on pulmonary expression of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors in rats with nitrofen-induced congenital diaphragmatic hernia. STUDY DESIGN: Fetuses were exposed to nitrofen at embryonic day 9.5. Subgroups received dexamethasone or were operated on for tracheal occlusion, or received combined treatment. Morphologic variables were recorded. To analyze vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 expression, we performed Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. Morphologic variables were analyzed by analysis of variance and immunohistochemistry by Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia decreased body weight, total lung weight, and lung-to-body weight ratio. Tracheal occlusion increased total lung weight and lung-to-body weight ratio (P < .05). Fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernia had reduced vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 expression, whereas steroids and tracheal occlusion increased their expression. Combined treatment increased expression of receptors, but had no additive effect. CONCLUSION: Vascular endothelial growth factor signaling disruption may be associated with pulmonary hypertension in congenital diaphragmatic hernia. Tracheal occlusion and steroids provide a pathway for restoring expression of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors.

Water deprivation increases Fos expression in hypothalamic corticotropin-releasing factor neurons induced by right atrial distension in awake rats

Atrial mechanoreceptors, sensitive to stretch, contribute in regulating heart rate and intravascular volume. The information from those receptors reaches the nucleus tractus solitarius and then the paraventricular nucleus (PVN), known to have a crucial role in the regulation of cardiovascular function. Neurons in the PVN synthesize CRF, AVP, and oxytocin (OT). Stimulation of atrial mechanoreceptors was performed in awake rats implanted with a balloon at the junction of the superior vena cava and right atrium. Plasma ACTH, AVP, and OT concentrations and Fos, CRF, AVP, and OT immunolabeling in the PVN were determined after balloon inflation in hydrated and water-deprived rats. The distension of the balloon increased the plasma ACTH concentrations, which were higher in water-deprived than in hydrated rats (P < 0.05). In addition, the distension in the water-deprived group decreased plasma AVP concentrations (P < 0.05), compared with the respective control group. The distension increased the number of Fos- and double-labeled Fos/CRF neurons in the parvocellular PVN, which was higher in the water-deprived than in the hydrated group (P < 0.01). There was no difference in the Fos expression in magnocellular PVN neurons after distension in hydrated and water-deprived groups, compared with respective controls. In conclusion, parvocellular CRF neurons showed an increase of Fos expression induced by stimulation of right atrial mechanoreceptors, suggesting that CRF participates in the cardiovascular reflex adjustments elicited by volume loading. Activation of CRF neurons in the PVN by cardiovascular reflex is affected by osmotic stimulation.

Genetic influence on the variance in P3 amplitude and latency

The P3(00) event-related potential (ERP) component is widely used as a measure of cognitive functioning and provides a sensitive electrophysiological index of the attentional and working memory demands of a task. This study investigated what proportion of the variance in the amplitude and latency of the P3, elicited in a delayed response working memory task, could be attributed to genetic factors. In 335 adolescent twin pairs and 48 siblings, the amplitude and latency of the P3 were examined at frontal, central, and parietal sites. Additive genetic factors accounted for 48% to 61% of the variance in P3 amplitude. Approximately one-third of the genetic variation at frontal sites was mediated by a common genetic factor that also influenced the genetic variation at parietal and central sites. Familial resemblance in P3 latency was due to genetic influence that accounted for 44% to 50% of the variance. Genetic covariance in P3 latency across sites was substantial, with a large part of the variance found at parietal, central, and frontal sites attributed to a common genetic factor. The findings provide further evidence that the P3 is a promising phenotype of neural activity of the brain and has the potential to be used in linkage and association analysis in the search for quantitative trait loci (QTLs) influencing cognition.

Q192R polymorphism of the paraoxonase-1 gene as a risk factor for obesity in Portuguese women

Introduction - Obesity became a major public health problem as a result of its increasing prevalence worldwide. Paraoxonase-1 (PON1) is an esterase able to protect membranes and lipoproteins from oxidative modifications. At the PON1 gene, several polymorphisms in the promoter and coding regions have been identified. The aims of this study were i) to assess PON1 L55M and Q192R polymorphisms as a risk factor for obesity in women; ii) to compare PON1 activity according to the expression of each allele in L55M and Q192R polymorphisms; iii) to compare PON1 activity between obese and normal-weight women. Materials and methods - We studied 75 healthy (35.9±8.2 years) and 81 obese women (34.3±8.2 years). Inclusion criteria for obese subjects were body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 and absence of inflammatory/neoplasic conditions or kidney/hepatic dysfunction. The two PON1 polymorphisms were assessed by real-time PCR with TaqMan probes. PON1 enzymatic activity was assessed by spectrophotometric methods, using paraoxon as a substrate. Results - No significant differences were found for PON1 activity between normal and obese women. Nevertheless, PON1 activity was greater (P<0.01) for the RR genotype (in Q192R polymorphism) and for the LL genotype (in L55M polymorphism). The frequency of allele R of Q192R polymorphism was significantly higher in obese women (P<0.05) and was associated with an increased risk of obesity (odds ratio=2.0 – 95% confidence interval (1.04; 3.87)). Conclusion - 55M and Q192R polymorphisms influence PON1 activity. The allele R of the Q192R polymorphism is associated with an increased risk for development of obesity among Portuguese Caucasian premenopausal women.

The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.