A Note on Proxy Variables and Instrument Variable Regression

This is a note about proxy variables and instruments for identification of structural parameters in regression models. We have experienced that in the econometric textbooks these two issues are treated separately, although in practice these two concepts are very often combined. Usually, proxy variables are inserted in instrument variable regressions with the motivation they are exogenous. Implicitly meaning they are exogenous in a reduced form model and not in a structural model. Actually if these variables are exogenous they should be redundant in the structural model, e.g. IQ as a proxy for ability. Valid proxies reduce unexplained variation and increases the efficiency of the estimator of the structural parameter of interest. This is especially important in situations when the instrument is weak. With a simple example we demonstrate what is required of a proxy and an instrument when they are combined. It turns out that when a researcher has a valid instrument the requirements on the proxy variable is weaker than if no such instrument exists

Self-interest and incompetence

All social science’s schools have a common assumption: self-interests is the central variable explaining human behavior in society. The author has no contention about that. But says that in contemporary societies a second variable is turning increasingly relevant when one is willing to explain social outcomes: policymakers’ technical and emotional incompetence. Incompetent policymakers, who fail to choose the alternative more consistent with their own objectives, even when interests were neutralized, always existed. But now, that an increasing number of social outcomes are dependent on government policy, competence turned strategic. Besides selfinterest, competence must be assessed when one evaluates social outcomes.

Comparing equilibrium real interest rates : different approaches to measure Brazilian rates

Despite the difficulties involved in the precise determination of equilibrium real interest rates, it seems clear that nominal interest rates has been higher in Brazil than in similar emerging economies. This paper aims to shed light on the possible reasons for this feature of the Brazilian economy. We extend Miranda and Muinhos (2003) one-country study to a sample of 20 countries, using many methods to compare measures of the real interest: (i) extracting equilibrium interest rates from IS curves; (ii) extracting steady state interest rates from marginal product of capital; (iii) capturing relevant variables and the fixed effects having real interest rates as dependent variable in a panel for emerging countries; and (iv) extracting inflation expectation from the spread between fixed rate and inflation-indexed treasure notes.

A bayesian model for mixed responses and skew laten variable to measure HRQoL in children

The aim of the thesi is to formulate a suitable Item Response Theory (IRT) based model to measure HRQoL (as latent variable) using a mixed responses questionnaire and relaxing the hypothesis of normal distributed latent variable. The new model is a combination of two models already presented in literature, that is, a latent trait model for mixed responses and an IRT model for Skew Normal latent variable. It is developed in a Bayesian framework, a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. The proposed model is test on a questionnaire composed by 5 discrete items and one continuous to measure HRQoL in children, the EQ-5D-Y questionnaire. A large sample of children collected in the schools was used. In comparison with a model for only discrete responses and a model for mixed responses and normal latent variable, the new model has better performances, in term of deviance information criterion (DIC), chain convergences times and precision of the estimates.

Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately

The relation between cognitive and motor performance and their relevance for children’s transition to school: A latent variable approach

Both theoretically and empirically there is a continuous interest in understanding the specific relation between cognitive and motor development in childhood. In the present longitudinal study including three measurement points, this relation was targeted. At the beginning of the study, the participating children were 5-6-year-olds. By assessing participants' fine motor skills, their executive functioning, and their non-verbal intelligence, their cross-sectional and cross-lagged interrelations were examined. Additionally, performance in these three areas was used to predict early school achievement (in terms of mathematics, reading, and spelling) at the end of participants' first grade. Correlational analyses and structural equation modeling revealed that fine motor skills, non-verbal intelligence and executive functioning were significantly interrelated. Both fine motor skills and intelligence had significant links to later school achievement. However, when executive functioning was additionally included into the prediction of early academic achievement, fine motor skills and non-verbal intelligence were no longer significantly associated with later school performance suggesting that executive functioning plays an important role for the motor-cognitive performance link.

Variable impedance LED matrix control system for lamps in PV applications

The interest in LED lighting has been growing recently due to the high efficacy, lifelime and ruggedness that this technology offers. However the key element to guarantee those parameters with these new electronic devices is to keep under control the working temperature of the semiconductor crystal. This paper propases a LED lamp design that fulfils the requ irements of a PV lighting systems, whose main quality criteria is reliability. It uses directly as a power supply a non·stabilized constant voltage source, as batteries. An electronic control architecture is used to regulate the current applied to the LEO matri)( according to their temperature and the voltage output value of the batteries with two pulse modulation signals (PWM) signals. The first one connects and disconnects the LEOs to the power supply and the second one connects and disconnects several emitters to the electric circuit changing its overall impedance. A prototype of the LEO lamp has been implemented and tested at different temperaturas and battery voltages.

Estudio numérico de flujo turbulento cargado con partículas sólidas a través de canales y tuberías de sección variable

La presente Tesis Doctoral tiene como objetivo el estudio de flujo turbulento cargado con partículas sólidas a través de canales y tuberías de sección constante usando un enfoque Euleriano-Lagrangiano. El campo de flujo de la fase de transporte (aire) se resuelve usando simulación de grandes escalas (LES), implementada en un programa de volúmenes finitos mientras que las ecuaciones gobernantes de la fase dispersa son resueltas por medio de un algoritmo de seguimiento Lagrangiano de partículas que ha sido desarrollado y acoplado al programa que resuelve el flujo. Se estudia de manera sistemática y progresiva la interacción fluido→partícula (one-way coupling), a través de diferentes configuraciones geométricas en coordenadas cartesianas (canales de sección constante y variable) y en coordenadas cilíndricas (tuberías de sección constante y sección variable) abarcando diferentes números de Reynolds y diferentes tamaños de partículas; todos los resultados obtenidos han sido comparados con datos publicados previamente. El estudio de flujo multifásico a través de, tuberías de sección variable, ha sido abordada en otras investigaciones mayoritariamente de forma experimental o mediante simulación usando modelos de turbulencia menos complejos y no mediante LES. El patrón de flujo que se verifica en una tubería con expansión es muy complejo y dicha configuración geométrica se halla en múltiples aplicaciones industriales que involucran el transporte de partículas sólidas, por ello es de gran interés su estudio. Como hecho innovador, en esta tesis no solo se resuelven las estadísticas de velocidad del fluido y las partículas en tuberías con diferentes tamaños de expansión y diferentes regímenes de flujo sino que se caracteriza, usando diversas formulaciones del número de Stokes y el parámetro de arrastre, el ingreso y acumulación de partículas dentro de la zona de recirculación, obteniéndose resultados coincidentes con datos experimentales. ABSTRACT The objective of this Thesis research is to study the turbulent flow laden with solid particles through channels and pipes with using Eulerian-Lagrangian approach. The flow field of the transport phase (air ) is solved using large eddy simulation ( LES ) implemented in a program of finite volume while the governing equations of the dispersed phase are resolved by means of a particle Lagrangian tracking algorithm which was developed and coupled to principal program flow solver . We studied systematically and progressively the fluid interaction → particle ( one- way coupling ) , through different geometric configurations in Cartesian coordinates ( channel with constant and variable section) and in cylindrical coordinates ( pipes with constant section and variable section ) covering different Reynolds numbers and different particle sizes, all results have been compared with previously published data . The study of multiphase flow through, pipes with variable section has been addressed in other investigations predominantly experimentally or by simulation using less complex models and no turbulence by LES. The flow pattern is verified in a pipe expansion is very complex and this geometry is found in many industrial applications involving the transport of solid particles, so it is of great interest to study. As an innovator fact , in this Thesis not only finds fluid velocity statistics and particles with different sizes of pipe expansion and different flow regimes but characterized, using various formulations of the Stokes number and the drag parameter are resolved, the entry and accumulation of particles within the recirculation zone , matching results obtained with experimental data.

El muro como referencia arquitectónica

Esta investigación parte del interés particular por la manifestación arquitectónica, paisajística o urbanística de aquellos muros construidos que se han erigido para limitar, planteando un enfoque del muro en una vertiente conceptual. Se propone la formulación de distintas interpretaciones para un mismo elemento físico, logrando una propuesta arquitectónica de identificación para diferentes casos de estudio que consideramos paradigmáticos en su concepto. La hipótesis plantea la posibilidad de identificar un muro con la autonomía o identidad conceptual que le hace capaz de condicionar o dirigir la conformación de una obra de arquitectura, sirviendo como instrumento arquitectónico para las acciones de articulación, implantación, referenciación o conformación. El desarrollo de la investigación muestra la aptitud de individualizar el muro como elemento excepcional en el cumplimiento de la síntesis de distintas variables de proyecto. Se elaboran cinco conceptos diferentes del elemento en la función que cumple en el espacio que se basan en una definición compuesta de dos propiedades determinantes que se identifican con la categoría de la “justificación conceptual” combinando, además, valores de las categorías “Relación con el lugar”, “Función estética”, “Función de programa” y “Generación”. Se propone la identificación del muro que presenta las cualidades que lo hacen actuar de forma articuladora en el espacio y que, al cumplir esa función, condiciona y determina parte de la obra de arquitectura en que se encuentra. El muro articulador se entiende como un elemento que soluciona formal y espacialmente distintas situaciones de programa; no responde a un esquema formal predeterminado, sino que lo crea, en la unión coherente entre opuestos: ámbitos opuestos, esquemas formales opuestos, etc. Proponemos la identificación del muro que presenta determinadas cualidades que lo hacen actuar de forma implantadora en el espacio y que, al cumplir esa función, condiciona y determina parte de la obra en que se encuentra. Se considera el muro implantador como el punto de partida del proyecto en que se ha utilizado y como el elemento elegido para hacer la síntesis entre las variables del proyecto - sitio, función constructiva y estructural, estableciendo una regla formal y espacial coherente. Proponemos la identificación del muro referenciador, elemento que se destaca en la edificación como entidad elegida para hacer la síntesis entre las distintas variables del proyecto: significado, función estética y sitio. El muro referenciador se percibe como una entidad autónoma, particular al carácter o programa de la obra y al sitio en que se erige. Se considera el muro-recinto como el punto de partida del proyecto en que se ha utilizado, así como un elemento fundamental que se destaca en el conjunto de la obra - sea por su vertiente constructiva o de tratamiento estético – como entidad elegida para hacer la síntesis entre las variables del proyecto: forma y programa. Al utilizar un esquema formal predeterminado, permite generar espacio coherente con las demandas de un programa específico, entendiéndose como un elemento arquitectónico particular a la obra. Proponemos la identificación del muro habitable como el elemento que presenta las cualidades que lo hacen pasible de generar espacio en su interior, siendo un instrumento útil para cumplir con la variable del proyecto del programa. El concepto de muro habitable, como contrapunto a los otros cuatro tipos, se manifiesta como una entidad más elemental que traduce un instrumento de trabajo todavía más manejable que los restantes muros estudiados. De hecho, su utilización es incluso posible en aquellos muros que ya presentan el concepto de muro articulador, implantador, referenciador o muro-recinto. ABSTRACT This research is based on a particular interest in the architectural, landscape or urban manifestations of those walls that have been erected to limit, considering a conceptual approach. It suggests the formulation of diverse interpretations for the same physical element to achieve an architectural proposal of identification for different case studies that we consider paradigmatic in its concept. The hypothesis considers the possibility to identify a wall with the autonomy or conceptual identity that makes it able to influence or direct the form of an architecture work, serving as an instrument for the actions of articulation, emplacement, referencing or conformation. The development of the research shows the ability to individualize the wall as an outstanding element in the synthesis of different variables of architectural design. It elaborates five different concepts of the wall function in space, based on a definition with two determinant properties which combine values of the categories "Relation with the context", "Aesthetic function", "Program function" and "Generation". We propose the identification of the wall that has the qualities that make it act in an articulating way in space, conditioning and determining part of the architectural work. The “articulating wall” is understood as an element that formally and spatially solves different situations of functional program; it does not respond to a previous formal scheme, it creates it instead, through the coherent combination between opposites: opposing fields, opposing formal schemes, etc. We identify as well the wall that has the qualities that make it able to emplace on site, conditioning and determining part of the architecture work. The “wall that emplaces” is considered the starting point of the architectural design and the chosen element to make the synthesis between the architectural design variables - site, constructive function and structural function - establishing a formal and spatial coherent rule. We propose the identification of the “referencing wall”, element that stands out in the building as an entity chosen to make the synthesis between the project variables: meaning, aesthetic function and site. The referencing wall is perceived as an autonomous entity, particular to the character or the functional program and the site on which it sits. We consider the “precinct wall” as the departure point of the architectural design where it is used as well as a fundamental element that stands out in the whole of the architecture work - either by its constructive aspect or esthetic treatment - as the chosen entity to synthetize form and pro-gram. Since it uses a predetermined formal scheme it will allow to generate consistent space with-in the demands of a specific program, being understood as an element particular to the architectural work. As a fifth concept we identify the “inhabitable wall” as the element that has the qualities that make it predisposed to generate space inside its nucleus, being a useful instrument to comply with the variable of program in the architectural design. The concept of inhabitable wall, as a counterpoint to the other four types, manifests itself as a more elemental entity that translates itself as a more manageable working tool. In fact, its use is even possible in those walls that al-ready present the concept of articulating wall, emplacing wall, referencing wall or precinct wall.

EM optimization of latent-variable density models

There is currently considerable interest in developing general non-linear density models based on latent, or hidden, variables. Such models have the ability to discover the presence of a relatively small number of underlying `causes' which, acting in combination, give rise to the apparent complexity of the observed data set. Unfortunately, to train such models generally requires large computational effort. In this paper we introduce a novel latent variable algorithm which retains the general non-linear capabilities of previous models but which uses a training procedure based on the EM algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of the model on a toy problem and on data from flow diagnostics for a multi-phase oil pipeline.

The influence of socio-cultural environments on the performance of nascent entrepreneurs:an instrumental variable approach

The importance of informal institutions and in particular culture for entrepreneurship is a subject of ongoing interest. Past research has mostly concentrated on cross-national comparisons, cultural values, and the direct effects of culture on entrepreneurial behavior, but in the main found inconsistent results. The present research adds a fresh perspective to this research stream by turning attention to community-level culture and cultural norms. We hypothesize indirect effects of cultural norms on venture emergence. Specifically that community-level cultural norms (performance-based culture and socially-supportive institutional norms) impact important supply-side variables (entrepreneurial self-efficacy and entrepreneurial motivation) which in turn influence nascent entrepreneurs’ success in creating operational ventures (venture emergence). We test our predictions on a unique longitudinal data set (PSED II) tracking nascent entrepreneurs venture creation efforts over a 5 year time span and find evidence supporting them. Our research contributes to a more fine-grained understanding of how culture, in particular perceptions of community cultural norms, influences venture emergence. This research highlights the embeddedness of entrepreneurial behavior and its immediate antecedent beliefs in the local, community context.

Interest groups in multiple streams:specifying their involvement in the framework

Although interests inhabit a central place in the multiple streams framework (MSF), interest groups have played only a minor role in theoretical and empirical studies until now. In Kingdon’s original conception, organized interests are a key variable in the politics stream. Revisiting Kingdon’s concept with a particular focus on interest groups and their activities—in different streams and at various levels—in the policy process, we take this argument further. In particular, we argue that specifying groups’ roles in other streams adds value to the explanatory power of the framework. To do this, we look at how interest groups affect problems, policies, and politics. The influence of interest groups within the streams is explained by linking the MSF with literature on interest intermediation. We show that depending on the number of conditions and their activity level, interest groups can be involved in all three streams. We illustrate this in case studies reviewing labor market policies in Germany and chemicals regulation at the European level.

Aerodynamic Testing of Variable Message Signs

The increasing nationwide interest in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and the need for more efficient transportation have led to the expanding use of variable message sign (VMS) technology. VMS panels are substantially heavier than flat panel aluminum signs and have a larger depth (dimension parallel to the direction of traffic). The additional weight and depth can have a significant effect on the aerodynamic forces and inertial loads transmitted to the support structure. The wind induced drag forces and the response of VMS structures is not well understood. Minimum design requirements for VMS structures are contained in the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Standard Specification for Structural Support for Highway Signs, Luminaires, and Traffic Signals (AASHTO Specification). However the Specification does not take into account the prismatic geometry of VMS and the complex interaction of the applied aerodynamic forces to the support structure. In view of the lack of code guidance and the limited number research performed so far, targeted experimentation and large scale testing was conducted at the Florida International University (FIU) Wall of Wind (WOW) to provide reliable drag coefficients and investigate the aerodynamic instability of VMS. A comprehensive range of VMS geometries was tested in turbulence representative of the high frequency end of the spectrum in a simulated suburban atmospheric boundary layer. The mean normal, lateral and vertical lift force coefficients, in addition to the twisting moment coefficient and eccentricity ratio, were determined using the measured data for each model. Wind tunnel testing confirmed that drag on a prismatic VMS is smaller than the 1.7 suggested value in the current AASHTO Specification (2013). An alternative to the AASHTO Specification code value is presented in the form of a design matrix. Testing and analysis also indicated that vortex shedding oscillations and galloping instability could be significant for VMS signs with a large depth ratio attached to a structure with a low natural frequency. The effect of corner modification was investigated by testing models with chamfered and rounded corners. Results demonstrated an additional decrease in the drag coefficient but a possible Reynolds number dependency for the rounded corner configuration.

Turing's menagerie:Talking lions, virtual bats, electric sheep and analogical peacocks: Common ground and common interest are necessary components of engagement

This theoretical paper attempts to define some of the key components and challenges required to create embodied conversational agents that can be genuinely interesting conversational partners. Wittgenstein's argument concerning talking lions emphasizes the importance of having a shared common ground as a basis for conversational interactions. Virtual bats suggests that-for some people at least-it is important that there be a feeling of authenticity concerning a subjectively experiencing entity that can convey what it is like to be that entity. Electric sheep reminds us of the importance of empathy in human conversational interaction and that we should provide a full communicative repertoire of both verbal and non-verbal components if we are to create genuinely engaging interactions. Also we may be making the task more difficult rather than easy if we leave out non-verbal aspects of communication. Finally, analogical peacocks highlights the importance of between minds alignment and establishes a longer term goal of being interesting, creative, and humorous if an embodied conversational agent is to be truly an engaging conversational partner. Some potential directions and solutions to addressing these issues are suggested.

Noncompaction in Healthy Subjects, Dilated and Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy, and Neuromuscular Disorders Is the Same Entity

With interest we read the article by Khosroshahi et al. about a novel method for quantification of left ventricular hypertrabeculation/noncompaction (LVHT) using two-dimensional echocardiography in children (1). We appreciate their efforts to contribute to an improvement and unification of echocardiographic diagnostic criteria for LVHT, which is urgently needed. Concerning their proposed method, we have the following questions and concerns: