Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Modelling of crowded polymers elucidate effects of double-strand breaks in topological domains of bacterial chromosomes.

Using numerical simulations of pairs of long polymeric chains confined in microscopic cylinders, we investigate consequences of double-strand DNA breaks occurring in independent topological domains, such as these constituting bacterial chromosomes. Our simulations show a transition between segregated and mixed state upon linearization of one of the modelled topological domains. Our results explain how chromosomal organization into topological domains can fulfil two opposite conditions: (i) effectively repulse various loops from each other thus promoting chromosome separation and (ii) permit local DNA intermingling when one or more loops are broken and need to be repaired in a process that requires homology search between broken ends and their homologous sequences in closely positioned sister chromatid.

Statistical modelling of CSP solving algorithms performance

The goal of this work is to try to create a statistical model, based only on easily computable parameters from the CSP problem to predict runtime behaviour of the solving algorithms, and let us choose the best algorithm to solve the problem. Although it seems that the obvious choice should be MAC, experimental results obtained so far show, that with big numbers of variables, other algorithms perfom much better, specially for hard problems in the transition phase.

Modélisation systémique de la transition pour des familles ayant un adolescent atteint de fibrose kystique en phase pré-transfert vers l'établissement adulte

Les progrès spectaculaires réalisés dans le traitement de la fibrose kystique font en sorte qu'un nombre de plus en plus élevé de familles comptant un adolescent atteint de ce problème de santé, peut maintenant envisager d'effectuer la transition depuis l'adolescent vers l'âge adulte. À ce jour, les recherches à ce sujet demeurent peu nombreuses, principalement en ce qui a trait à la nature des interations entre les adolescents, leurs parents et les professionnels de la santé qui préparent ces familles en vue du transfert, depuis un établissement pédiatrique vers un établissement adulte. L'appréhension de ce phénomène s'est réalisée dans une perspective constructiviste et systémique, ce qui a permis de mettre en relief certaines des multiples facettes du phénomène et de jeter un éclairage novateur sur des dynamiques entre les membres de la famille et entre ces derniers et les professionnels de la santé. Le but de cette étude de cas, de type qualitavive, était de modéliser de manière systémique, le processus de transtion pour des familles ayant un adolescent atteint de la fibrose kystique qui est en phase pré transfert, depuis l'établissement pédiatrique vers le milieu adulte. Des entretiens semi-dirigés ont été réalisés avec sept familles comptant un adolescent atteint de la fibrose kystique. De plus, un entretien de groupe a également été effectué avec une équipe interprofessionnelle oeuvrant dans une clinique qui traite des adolescents atteints de la fibrose kysitque. L'analyse qualitative des données a mené au développement d'un modèle systémique de la transition pour ces familles. Ce modèle souligne qu'en évoluant de façon parallèle, les familles et les professionnels de la santé poursuivent la même finalité de favoriser le développement de l'autonomie de l'adolescent. Ce processus de transition chez ces familles s'inscrit, par ailleurs, dans un espace-temps signifié par le transfert inter-établissements, avec peu de considération pour la souffrance parentale liée au pronostic de la maladie. Ainsi, le développement de l'autonomie est marqué par la confiance qui doit s'établir entre l'adolescent et son parent, en passant par la surveillance du parent envers l'adolescent et par la responsabilisation graduelle chez ce dernier. Cette étude propose donc une modélisation systémique de ce processus de transition qui contribue non seulement au développement du concept de la transition en sciences de la santé, mais aussi de la pratique clinique et de la recherche dans le domaine des soins à la famille aux prises avec un adolescent atteint de la fibrose kystique.

Mathematical Modelling of the Dynamics of Granular Materials in a Rotating Cylinder

The current study is aimed at the development of a theoretical simulation tool based on Discrete Element Method (DEM) to 'interpret granular dynamics of solid bed in the cross section of the horizontal rotating cylinder at the microscopic level and subsequently apply this model to establish the transition behaviour, mixing and segregation.The simulation of the granular motion developed in this work is based on solving Newton's equation of motion for each particle in the granular bed subjected to the collisional forces, external forces and boundary forces. At every instant of time, the forces are tracked and the positions velocities and accelarations of each partcle is The software code for this simulation is written in VISUAL FORTRAN 90 After checking the validity of the code with special tests, it is used to investigate the transition behaviour of granular solids motion in the cross section of a rotating cylinder for various rotational speeds and fill fraction.This work is hence directed towards a theoretical investigation based on Discrete Element Method (DEM) of the motion of granular solids in the radial direction of the horizontal cylinder to elucidate the relationship between the operating parameters of the rotating cylinder geometry and physical properties ofthe granular solid.The operating parameters of the rotating cylinder include the various rotational velocities of the cylinder and volumetric fill. The physical properties of the granular solids include particle sizes, densities, stiffness coefficients, and coefficient of friction Further the work highlights the fundamental basis for the important phenomena of the system namely; (i) the different modes of solids motion observed in a transverse crosssection of the rotating cylinder for various rotational speeds, (ii) the radial mixing of the granular solid in terms of active layer depth (iii) rate coefficient of mixing as well as the transition behaviour in terms of the bed turnover time and rotational speed and (iv) the segregation mechanisms resulting from differences in the size and density of particles.The transition behaviour involving its six different modes of motion of the granular solid bed is quantified in terms of Froude number and the results obtained are validated with experimental and theoretical results reported in the literature The transition from slumping to rolling mode is quantified using the bed turnover time and a linear relationship is established between the bed turn over time and the inverse of the rotational speed of the cylinder as predicted by Davidson et al. [2000]. The effect of the rotational speed, fill fraction and coefficient of friction on the dynamic angle of repose are presented and discussed. The variation of active layer depth with respect to fill fraction and rotational speed have been investigated. The results obtained through simulation are compared with the experimental results reported by Van Puyvelde et. at. [2000] and Ding et at. [2002].The theoretical model has been further extended, to study the rmxmg and segregation in the transverse direction for different particle sizes and their size ratios. The effect of fill fraction and rotational speed on the transverse mixing behaviour is presented in the form of a mixing index and mixing kinetics curve. The segregation pattern obtained by the simulation of the granular solid bed with respect to the rotational speed of the cylinder is presented both in graphical and numerical forms. The segregation behaviour of the granular solid bed with respect to particle size, density and volume fraction of particle size has been investigated. Several important macro parameters characterising segregation such as mixing index, percolation index and segregation index have been derived from the simulation tool based on first principles developed in this work.

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Modelling convective processes during the suppressed phase of the a Madden-Julian Oscillation: Comparing single-column models with cloud resolving models

The role of convective processes in moistening the atmosphere during suppressed periods of the suppressed phase of a Madden-Julian oscillation is investigated in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations, and the impact of moistening on the subsequent evolution of convection is assessed as part of a Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study (GCSS) intercomparison project. The ability of single-column model (SCM) versions of a number of state-of-the-art climate and numerical weather prediction models to capture these convective processes is also evaluated. During the suppressed periods, the CRMs are found to simulate a maximum moistening around 3 km, which is associated with a predominance of shallow convection. All SCMs produce adequate amounts of shallow convection during the suppressed periods, comparable to that seen in CRMs, but the relatively drier SCMs have higher precipitation rates than the relatively wetter SCMs and CRMs. The relatively drier SCMs dry, rather than moisten, the lower troposphere below the melting level. During the transition periods, convective processes act to moisten the atmosphere above the level at which mean advection changes from moistening to drying, despite an overall drying effect for the column. The SCMs capture some essence of this moistening at upper levels. A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection is simulated by the CRMs and the wetter SCMs during the transition periods, but the onset of deep convection is delayed in the drier SCMs. This results in lower precipitation rates for these SCMs during the active periods, although much better agreement exists between the models at this time.

Synthesis of unsaturated aminopyranosides as possible transition state mimics for glycosidases

Four unsaturated aminopyranosides have been prepared as possible transition-state mimics targeted towards carbohydrate processing enzymes. The conformations of the protonated aminosugars have been investigated by molecular modelling and their ability to inhibit alpha- and beta-glucosidases and an a-mannosidase have been probed. Two targets proved moderate inhibitors of alpha-glucosidases from Brewer's yeast and Bacillus stearothennophilus.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Modelling the effects of gravity waves on stratocumulus clouds observed during VOCALS-UK

During the VOCALS campaign spaceborne satellite observations showed that travelling gravity wave packets, generated by geostrophic adjustment, resulted in perturbations to marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the south-east Pacific Ocean (SEP). Often, these perturbations were reversible in that passage of the wave resulted in the clouds becoming brighter (in the wave crest), then darker (in the wave trough) and subsequently recovering their properties after the passage of the wave. However, occasionally the wave packets triggered irreversible changes to the clouds, which transformed from closed mesoscale cellular convection to open form. In this paper we use large eddy simulation (LES) to examine the physical mechanisms that cause this transition. Specifically, we examine whether the clearing of the cloud is due to (i) the wave causing additional cloud-top entrainment of warm, dry air or (ii) whether the additional condensation of liquid water onto the existing drops and the subsequent formation of drizzle are the important mechanisms. We find that, although the wave does cause additional drizzle formation, this is not the reason for the persistent clearing of the cloud; rather it is the additional entrainment of warm, dry air into the cloud followed by a reduction in longwave cooling, although this only has a significant effect when the cloud is starting to decouple from the boundary layer. The result in this case is a change from a stratocumulus to a more patchy cloud regime. For the simulations presented here, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) scavenging did not play an important role in the clearing of the cloud. The results have implications for understanding transitions between the different cellular regimes in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.

Trust-By-Contract: Modelling, Analysing and Predicting Behaviour in Software Architectures

Architecture description languages (ADLs) are used to specify high-level, compositional views of a software application. ADL research focuses on software composed of prefabricated parts, so-called software components. ADLs usually come equipped with rigorous state-transition style semantics, facilitating verification and analysis of specifications. Consequently, ADLs are well suited to configuring distributed and event-based systems. However, additional expressive power is required for the description of enterprise software architectures – in particular, those built upon newer middleware, such as implementations of Java’s EJB specification, or Microsoft’s COM+/.NET. The enterprise requires distributed software solutions that are scalable, business-oriented and mission-critical. We can make progress toward attaining these qualities at various stages of the software development process. In particular, progress at the architectural level can be leveraged through use of an ADL that incorporates trust and dependability analysis. Also, current industry approaches to enterprise development do not address several important architectural design issues. The TrustME ADL is designed to meet these requirements, through combining approaches to software architecture specification with rigorous design-by-contract ideas. In this paper, we focus on several aspects of TrustME that facilitate specification and analysis of middleware-based architectures for trusted enterprise computing systems.

Modelling the surface circulation and thermal structure of a tropical reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model and remote-sensing data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Forward modelling of petrological crust-forming processes on the early Earth

Tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneisses form up to two-thirds of the preserved Archean continental crust and there is considerable debate regarding the primary magmatic processes of the generation of these rocks. The popular theories indicate that these rocks were formed by partial melting of basaltic oceanic crust which was previously metamorphosed to garnet-amphibolite and/or eclogite facies conditions either at the base of thick oceanic crust or by subduction processes.rnThis study investigates a new aspect regarding the source rock for Archean continental crust which is inferred to have had a bulk compostion richer in magnesium (picrite) than present-day basaltic oceanic crust. This difference is supposed to originate from a higher geothermal gradient in the early Archean which may have induced higher degrees of partial melting in the mantle, which resulted in a thicker and more magnesian oceanic crust. rnThe methods used to investigate the role of a more MgO-rich source rock in the formation of TTG-like melts in the context of this new approach are mineral equilibria calculations with the software THERMOCALC and high-pressure experiments conducted from 10–20 kbar and 900–1100 °C, both combined in a forward modelling approach. Initially, P–T pseudosections for natural rock compositions with increasing MgO contents were calculated in the system NCFMASHTO (Na2O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2) to ascertain the metamorphic products from rocks with increasing MgO contents from a MORB up to a komatiite. A small number of previous experiments on komatiites showed the development of pyroxenite instead of eclogite and garnet-amphibolite during metamorphism and established that melts of these pyroxenites are of basaltic composition, thus again building oceanic crust instead of continental crust.rnThe P–T pseudosections calculated represent a continuous development of their metamorphic products from amphibolites and eclogites towards pyroxenites. On the basis of these calculations and the changes within the range of compositions, three picritic Models of Archean Oceanic Crust (MAOC) were established with different MgO contents (11, 13 and 15 wt%) ranging between basalt and komatiite. The thermodynamic modelling for MAOC 11, 13 and 15 at supersolidus conditions is imprecise since no appropriate melt model for metabasic rocks is currently available and the melt model for metapelitic rocks resulted in unsatisfactory calculations. The partially molten region is therfore covered by high-pressure experiments. The results of the experiments show a transition from predominantly tonalitic melts in MAOC 11 to basaltic melts in MAOC 15 and a solidus moving towards higher temperatures with increasing magnesium in the bulk composition. Tonalitic melts were generated in MAOC 11 and 13 at pressures up to 12.5 kbar in the presence of garnet, clinopyroxene, plagioclase plus/minus quartz (plus/minus orthopyroxene in the presence of quartz and at lower pressures) in the absence of amphibole but it could not be explicitly indicated whether the tonalitic melts coexisting with an eclogitic residue and rutile at 20 kbar do belong to the Archean TTG suite. Basaltic melts were generated predominantly in the presence of granulite facies residues such as amphibole plus/minus garnet, plagioclase, orthopyroxene that lack quartz in all MAOC compositions at pressures up to 15 kbar. rnThe tonalitic melts generated in MAOC 11 and 13 indicate that thicker oceanic crust with more magnesium than that of a modern basalt is also a viable source for the generation of TTG-like melts and therefore continental crust in the Archean. The experimental results are related to different geologic settings as a function of pressure. The favoured setting for the generation of early TTG-like melts at 15 kbar is the base of an oceanic crust thicker than existing today or by melting of slabs in shallow subduction zones, both without interaction of tonalic melts with the mantle. Tonalitic melts at 20 kbar may have been generated below the plagioclase stability by slab melting in deeper subduction zones that have developed with time during the progressive cooling of the Earth, but it is unlikely that those melts reached lower pressure levels without further mantle interaction.rn

The Role of Monetary Policy in Pursuing Economic Activity in Selected Transition Countries

The process of transition has brought an urgent need to develop many new market-oriented institutions or in some cases to reconstruct existing ones. One of the most important institutions of western-type economies is a central bank. It fulfils several "public good" functions, the most important of which are the achievement of stable price levels and assuring the financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, even in economies with a long-standing market tradition, the question of whether a central bank is able to stimulate economic activity or whether all its cyclical actions lead only to changes in price levels remains open. The main purpose of this analysis was to empirically prove or disprove the relation between monetary policy and economic activity in more advanced transition countries. Basing his findings on commonly used econometric methods (causality tests, VAR modelling and simulations, simultaneous equations models), Delakorda concludes that the relation between money and economic activity is a mutual one, as there are significant differences between different countries in the conduct of monetary policy and in the environment of central banks. It is the latter which determines the relation between money and economic activity.