Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Essays on the Determinants of International Portfolio Investments

Investors significantly overweight domestic assets in their portfolios. This behavior which is commonly called “home bias” contradicts the prescriptions of portfolio theory. This thesis explores potential reasons for the “home bias” by examining the characteristics of the investing and the target countries and features of the interaction between them. A common theme of the four essays is a focus on the importance of information about foreign markets in explaining the share of these markets in investors’ portfolios. The results indicate that the size of the equity ownership in another country strongly relates to the distance to the financial capital of that country, and to trade in goods with and direct investments (FDI) to that country. The first essay empirically investigates the relationship between trade in real goods and portfolio investments. Overall, the evidence indicates a substantial role for trade in reducing the information cost relating to portfolio investments. The second essay examines the implications of the launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on international portfolio investments. The evidence on the allocation of Finnish international portfolio investments is more consistent with an information-based than a diversification motive explanation. The third essay employs new data for a large number of countries and further explores the role of trade on international portfolio investments. The results indicate that trade provides important information especially on firms in countries in which the corporate governance structure and the information environment of firms generate less reliable information. The fourth essay examines the relationship between direct investments (FDI) and portfolio investments. In contrast to the predications of portfolio theory, it provides evidence that FDI is a complement rather than a substitute for portfolio investments.

Hydrodynamics from scalar black branes

In this paper, using the Gauge/gravity duality techniques, we explore the hydrodynamic regime of a very special class of strongly coupled QFTs that come up with an emerging UV length scale in the presence of a negative hyperscaling violating exponent. The dual gravitational counterpart for these QFTs consists of scalar dressed black brane solutions of exactly integrable Einstein-scalar gravity model with Domain Wall (DW) asymptotics. In the first part of our analysis we compute the R-charge diffusion for the boundary theory and find that (unlike the case for the pure AdS (4) black branes) it scales quite non trivially with the temperature. In the second part of our analysis, we compute the eta/s ratio both in the non extremal as well as in the extremal limit of these special class of gauge theories and it turns out to be equal to 1/4 pi in both the cases. These results therefore suggest that the quantum critical systems in the presence of (negative) hyperscaling violation at UV, might fall under a separate universality class as compared to those conventional quantum critical systems with the usual AdS (4) duals.

图像处理在光路自动准直系统中的应用

光路自动准直系统应用于惯性约束聚变的高功率激光装置中的光束自动调整。图像处理是光路自动准直的关键技术之一。针对神光Ⅲ原型装置，结合阈值化、重心法、中值滤波和圆拟合等多种不同的图像处理方法设计了一套合理的准直方案，并且在模拟实验平台上进行了实验验证。实验结果表明，光路自动准直系统能够在15min之内顺利完成光路的自动调整，光束近场调整精度优于近场光斑的±0．5％，光束远场调整精度≤±0．3″，满足了原型装置的总体要求。

Arcabouço crustal profundo da parte Centro-Norte da margem de Angola: modelo de afinamento e contato de crostas

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a identificação de feições que permitam (1) a construção do arcabouço crustal profundo e da porção superior do manto em parte da Costa de Angola, (2) a comparação deste arcabouço com o embasamento aflorante e (3) a tentativa de adequar estes resultados aos modelos de ruptura continental já publicados. Para alcançar estes objetivos foi feita a interpretação de cinco linhas sísmicas de reflexão profundas (25 Km de profundidade) na costa de Angola, nas Bacias de Kwanza e Baixo Congo, adquiridas pela ION-GXT. As feições identificadas na sísmica de reflexão auxiliaram na determinação dos limites da crosta continental superior e inferior, no reconhecimento das camadas que compõem a crosta oceânica e na identificação da Descontinuidade de Mohorovicic (que marca o limite entre crosta e manto). A interpretação sísmica associada a dados da literatura (que proporcionaram valores de densidade para os pacotes identificados na interpretação sísmica) permitiram a realização de uma modelagem gravimétrica que foi comparada ao dado gravimétrico adquirido durante a aquisição sísmica. A modelagem gravimétrica serviu para validar a interpretação sísmica, atuando como um controle de qualidade para a interpretação. Caso a anomalia gravimétrica gerada pela modelagem não estivesse de acordo com a anomalia medida, a interpretação sísmica era revista na tentativa de um melhor ajuste entre o resultado modelado e o medido. Este ajuste, no entanto, sempre foi feito honrando os refletores que estavam bem marcados na sísmica. Somado a isto, ainda foi utilizado o dado magnético adquirido no campo, no auxilio da interpretação. O arcabouço crustal obtido com a utilização deste método permitiu a comparação dos resultados da interpretação com os modelos de evolução de margens passivas existentes na literatura, mostrando muitos pontos em comum aos modelos que defendem a possibilidade de ocorrência de manto exumado em margens passivas pobres em magmatismo. A interpretação final destes dados mostrou um domínio proximal marcado por uma crosta continental espessa porém pouco afinada em contato com um domínio distal marcado por uma crosta continental muito afinada (crosta hiper-estirada) e, em direção ao centro do oceano, uma região em que ocorre a exumação do manto. A passagem do domínio proximal para o distal ocorre de forma rápida em uma região denominada Zona de Estrangulamento. À oeste do manto exumado é possível identificar a crosta oceânica. O cruzamento dos resultados obtidos neste trabalho com dados do embasamento aflorante no continente africano sugerem um controle do deste nos valores finais de afinamento da crosta continental sob a bacia e nas regiões de manto exumado. Trabalhos recentes realizados na costa de Angola e do Brasil mostram feições semelhantes às identificadas nesta dissertação.

The recovery mechanism of platinum group metals from catalytic converters in spent automotive exhaust systems

The recovery of platinum group metals (PGMs) from catalytic converters of spent exhaust systems is considered in this paper. To be cost-effective, recovery processes must be well over 90% efficient and so the optimisation of their operation is vital. Effective optimisation requires a sound understanding of the operation and the underlying process mechanisms. This paper focuses on pyrometallurgical recovery operations used and typified by the Johnson–Matthey process. Analysis of this process reveals that it cannot be simply explained by the gravity model that is normally assumed. The analysis reveals that the affinity of PGM particles for the melted collector metal is a key factor in the behaviour of the process. A rational explanation of the key issues that govern the process behaviour is proposed and shown to be consistent with available operational data. The results generated would be applicable to other similar processes.

Home bias persistence in foreign direct investments

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the issues related to home bias and foreign direct investments (FDIs). We study the role of physical, cultural, and institutional distances from home on FDI decisions taken by corporations to assess whether the globalization of the past two decades has reduced their influence. Using the ‘home bias’ framework from the finance literature and the gravity model from the economics literature, we utilize a large sample of both developed and emerging markets, using FDI flows of 6263 unique bilateral country pairs over a 30-year period. We find strong empirical evidence of persistent home bias in FDI outflows, and we show that not only physical distance but also cultural and institutional similarities between host and source countries remain a decisive factor in foreign corporate investment decisions. We also show that such home bias is persistent over time and is observed around the world.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

Lógica en la toma de decisiones de inversión en el sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural

Este documento se centra en la presentación de información y análisis de la misma a la hora de establecer la manera en que empresas del sector de extracción de gas natural y generación de energía a base de dicho recurso, toman decisiones en cuanto a inversión, centrándose en la lógica que usan a la hora de emprender este proceso. Esto debido a la constante necesidad de establecer procesos que permitan tomar decisiones más acertadas, incluyendo todas las herramientas posibles para tal fin. La lógica es una de estas herramientas, pues permite encadenar factores con el fin de obtener resultados positivos. Por tal razón, se hace importante conocer el uso de esta herramienta, teniendo en cuentas de qué manera y en que contextos es usada. Con el fin de tener una mayor orientación, este estudio estará centrado en un sector específico, el cual es el de la extracción de petróleo y gas natural. Lo anterior entendiendo la necesidad existente de fundamentación teórica que permita establecer de manera clara la forma apropiada de tomar decisiones en un sector tan diverso y complejo como lo es el mencionado. El contexto empresarial actual exige una visión global, no basada en la lógica lineal causal que hoy se tiene como referencia. El sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural es un ejemplo particular en cuanto a la manera en cuanto se toman decisiones en inversión, puesto que en su mayoría son empresas de capital intensivo, las cuales mantienen un flujo elevado de recursos monetarios.

The propagation mechanism of a vortex on the β plane

The propagation velocity and propagation mechanism for vortices on a β plane are determined for a reduced-gravity model by integrating the momentum equations over the β plane. Isolated vortices, vortices in a background current, and initial vortex propagation from rest are studied. The propagation mechanism for isolated anticyclones as well as cyclones, which has been lacking up to now, is presented. It is shown that, to first order, the vortex moves to generate a Coriolis force on the mass anomaly of the vortex to compensate for the force on the vortex due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter. Only the mass anomaly of the vortex is of importance, because the Coriolis force due to the motion of the bulk of the layer moving with the vortex is almost fully compensated by the Coriolis force on the motion of the exterior flow. Because the mass anomaly of a cyclone is negative the force and acceleration have opposite sign. The role of dipolar structures in steadily moving vortices is discussed, and it is shown that their overall structure is fixed by the steady westward motion of the mass anomaly. Furthermore, it is shown that reduced-gravity vortices are not advected with a background flow. The reason for this behavior is that the background flow changes the ambient vorticity gradient such that the vortex obtains an extra self-propagation term that exactly cancels the advection by the background flow. Last, it is shown that a vortex initially at rest will accelerate equatorward first, after which a westward motion is generated. This result is independent of the sign of the vortex.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

An analysis of the determinants of cross-border real estate development flows

This paper investigates the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in western and central and eastern Europe (CEE). Drawing upon existing literature on the integration of international real estate markets, we make some inferences on expected patterns of cross-border real estate development from this literature review. The paper draws upon a transactions database in order to assess the penetration of national markets by international real estate developers. The determinants of cross-border transaction flows are modeled as a function the range of economic and real estate variables. Whilst western European markets tend to be dominated by local developers, much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of central and eastern Europe. Empirical modelling based on gravity model specifications reveal the importance of size of the economies, distance between countries, extent of globalization and EU membership as significant determinants of cross-border real estate development flow.

Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on import and export flows using a gravity model (170 countries, 1962–2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, we find that the driving forces determining the impact of disastrous events are the level of democracy and the geographical size of the affected country. The less democratic and the smaller a country the greater is its loss due to a catastrophe. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced. Had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.2% of its imports and 3.7% of its exports. While democratic countries' exports suffer identical decreases, imports increase.

A comparison of GOCE and drifter-based estimates of the North Atlantic steady-state surface circulation

Over the last decade, due to the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and, more recently, the Gravity and steady state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission, our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space has improved dramatically. Here we use GOCE to measure surface current speeds in the North Atlantic and compare our results with a range of independent estimates that use drifter data to improve small scales. We find that, with filtering, GOCE can recover 70% of the Gulf Steam strength relative to the best drifter-based estimates. In the subpolar gyre the boundary currents obtained from GOCE are close to the drifter-based estimates. Crucial to this result is careful filtering which is required to remove small-scale errors, or noise, in the computed surface. We show that our heuristic noise metric, used to determine the degree of filtering, compares well with the quadratic sum of mean sea surface and formal geoid errors obtained from the error variance–covariance matrix associated with the GOCE gravity model. At a resolution of 100 km the North Atlantic mean GOCE MDT error before filtering is 5 cm with almost all of this coming from the GOCE gravity model.