Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

The remarkable solar twin HIP 56948: a prime target in the quest for other Earths

Context. The Sun shows abundance anomalies relative to most solar twins. If the abundance peculiarities are due to the formation of inner rocky planets, that would mean that only a small fraction of solar type stars may host terrestrial planets. Aims. In this work we study HIP 56948, the best solar twin known to date, to determine with an unparalleled precision how similar it is to the Sun in its physical properties, chemical composition and planet architecture. We explore whether the abundances anomalies may be due to pollution from stellar ejecta or to terrestrial planet formation. Methods. We perform a differential abundance analysis (both in LTE and NLTE) using high resolution (R similar to 100 000) high S/N (600-650) Keck HIRES spectra of the Sun (as reflected from the asteroid Ceres) and HIP 56948. We use precise radial velocity data from the McDonald and Keck observatories to search for planets around this star. Results. We achieve a precision of sigma less than or similar to 0.003 dex for several elements. Including errors in stellar parameters the total uncertainty is as low as sigma similar or equal to 0.005 dex (1%), which is unprecedented in elemental abundance studies. The similarities between HIP 56948 and the Sun are astonishing. HIP 56948 is only 17 +/- 7 K hotter than the Sun, and log g, [Fe/H] and microturbulence velocity are only +0.02 +/- 0.02 dex, +0.02 +/- 0.01 dex and +0.01 +/- 0.01 km s(-1) higher than solar, respectively. Our precise stellar parameters and a differential isochrone analysis shows that HIP 56948 has a mass of 1.02 +/- 0.02 M-circle dot and that it is similar to 1 Gyr younger than the Sun, as constrained by isochrones, chromospheric activity, Li and rotation. Both stars show a chemical abundance pattern that differs from most solar twins, but the refractory elements (those with condensation temperature T-cond greater than or similar to 1000 K) are slightly (similar to 0.01 dex) more depleted in the Sun than in HIP 56948. The trend with T-cond in differential abundances (twins -HIP 56948) can be reproduced very well by adding similar to 3 M-circle plus of a mix of Earth and meteoritic material, to the convection zone of HIP 56948. The element-to-element scatter of the Earth/meteoritic mix for the case of hypothetical rocky planets around HIP 56948 is only 0.0047 dex. From our radial velocity monitoring we find no indications of giant planets interior to or within the habitable zone of HIP 56948. Conclusions. We conclude that HIP 56948 is an excellent candidate to host a planetary system like our own, including the possible presence of inner terrestrial planets. Its striking similarity to the Sun and its mature age makes HIP 56948 a prime target in the quest for other Earths and SETI endeavors.

Age determination and color reflectance of ODP Hole 165-1002D

Attempts to place Palaeolithic finds within a precise climatic framework are complicated by both uncertainty over the radiocarbon calibration beyond about 21,500 14C years bp (Reimer et al., 2004) and the absence of a master calendar chronology for climate events from reference archives such as Greenland ice cores or speleothems (Svensson et al., 2006, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.08.003). Here we present an alternative approach, in which 14C dates of interest are mapped directly onto the palaeoclimate record of the Cariaco Basin by means of its 14C series (Hughen et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1090300), circumventing calendar age model and correlation uncertainties, and placing dated events in the millennial-scale climate context of the last glacial period. This is applied to different sets of dates from levels with Mousterian artefacts, presumably produced by late Neanderthals, from Gorham's Cave in Gibraltar: first, generally accepted estimates of about 32,000 14C years bp for the uppermost Mousterian levels (Pettitt and Bailey, 2000; Bronk Ramsey et al., 2002, doi:10.1111/1475-4754.00040); second, a possible extended Middle Palaeolithic occupation until about 28,000 14C years bp (Finlayson et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature05195); and third, more contentious evidence for persistence until about 24,000 14C years bp (Finlayson et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature05195). This study shows that the three sets translate to different scenarios on the role of climate in Neanderthal extinction. The first two correspond to intervals of general climatic instability between stadials and interstadials that characterized most of the Middle Pleniglacial and are not coeval with Heinrich Events. In contrast, if accepted, the youngest date indicates that late Neanderthals may have persisted up to the onset of a major environmental shift, which included an expansion in global ice volume and an increased latitudinal temperature gradient. More generally, our radiocarbon climatostratigraphic approach can be applied to any 'snapshot' date from discontinuous records in a variety of deposits and can become a powerful tool in evaluating the climatic signature of critical intervals in Late Pleistocene human evolution.

Stable isotopes and element concentrations of samples from the Wadi Bih, United Arab Emirates

Ocean acidification triggered by Siberian Trap volcanism was a possible kill mechanism for the Permo-Triassic Boundary mass extinction, but direct evidence for an acidification event is lacking. We present a high-resolution seawater pH record across this interval, using boron isotope data combined with a quantitative modeling approach. In the latest Permian, increased ocean alkalinity primed the Earth system with a low level of atmospheric CO2 and a high ocean buffering capacity. The first phase of extinction was coincident with a slow injection of carbon into the atmosphere, and ocean pH remained stable. During the second extinction pulse, however, a rapid and large injection of carbon caused an abrupt acidification event that drove the preferential loss of heavily calcified marine biota.

Determination of the Hubble constant

Establishing accurate extragalactic distances has provided an immense challenge to astronomers since the 1920s. The situation has improved dramatically as better detectors have become available, and as several new, promising techniques have been developed. For the first time in the history of this difficult field, relative distances to galaxies are being compared on a case-by-case basis, and their quantitative agreement is being established. New instrumentation, the development of new techniques for measuring distances, and recent measurements with the Hubble Space telescope all have resulted in new distances to galaxies with precision at the ±5–20% level. The current statistical uncertainty in some methods for measuring H0 is now only a few percent; with systematic errors, the total uncertainty is approaching ±10%. Hence, the historical factor-of-two uncertainty in the value of the H0 is now behind us.

Análise de projetos de reassentamento habitacional: o caso do projeto Serra do Mar no estado de São Paulo.

As remoções de favelas são cada vez mais frequentes no contexto brasileiro e mundial. O reassentamento de famílias atingidas por estes processos deve respeitar os preceitos de moradia adequada como um direito que venha agregar qualidade de vida e dignidade às famílias atingidas, pois do contrário podem intensificar vulnerabilidades. A presente pesquisa analisa a adaptação e a satisfação dos moradores de um reassentamento, o Conjunto Rubens Lara, localizado no bairro Jardim Casqueiro na cidade de Cubatão, resultado de um deslocamento involuntário de famílias moradoras de favelas. O conjunto possui características distintas da produção de habitação social comumente praticada, como aspectos de localização, trabalho social e projeto. O método da pesquisa foi baseado em instrumentos que permitissem a visão dos diversos atores do processo, bem como a satisfação do usuário. Para análise dos dados quantitativos foi utilizada estatística descritiva, análise fatorial e a medida de incerteza. Os resultados mostram que o fato de se tratar de uma remoção involuntária não é determinante para a satisfação do morador. Atributos positivos que ofereçam qualidade de vida trazem maior influência na satisfação, mesmo em uma situação de remoção involuntária. A localização do empreendimento foi apontada como um aspecto determinante da satisfação por conta da oferta de serviços públicos, equipamentos urbanos e oportunidades de trabalho. No entanto, questões como o arranjo em condomínio, manutenção e incremento de gastos podem colocar os ganhos do projeto em risco. Quanto à gestão condominial verificou-se que a manutenção tem importante papel nas questões condominiais, pois é influenciada tanto por aspectos de engenharia como administrativos, podendo assim, ser um componente de preocupação no futuro. A satisfação com a manutenção se mostrou como um elemento de influência para a satisfação com a gestão condominial. Por outro lado, a satisfação com o valor da taxa de condomínio está ligada à capacidade de pagamento dos moradores e não pela qualidade dos serviços em si. Foi observada inadimplência menor que as encontradas na bibliografia.

Chronostratigraphy of eastern Mediterranen Sea sediment cores

An Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14C dated multiparameter event stratigraphy is developed for the Aegean Sea on the basis of highly resolved (centimeter to subcentimeter) multiproxy data collected from four late glacial to Holocene sediment cores. We quantify the degree of proportionality and synchroneity of sediment accumulation in these cores and use this framework to optimize the confidence levels in regional marine, radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphies. The applicability of the framework to published, lower-resolution records from the Aegean Sea is assessed. Next this is extended into the wider eastern Mediterranean, using new and previously published high-resolution data from the northern Levantine and Adriatic cores. We determine that the magnitude of uncertainties in the intercore comparison of AMS 14C datings based on planktonic foraminifera in the eastern Mediterranean is of the order of ±240 years (2 SE). These uncertainties are attributed to synsedimentary and postsedimentary processes that affect the materials dated. This study also offers a background age control that allows for vital refinements to radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphy in the eastern Mediterranean, with the potential for similar frameworks to be developed for any other well-studied region.

Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.

Measurement of total body water (TBW) and total energy expenditure (TEE) using stable isotopes

Understanding the relationship between diet, physical activity and health in humans requires accurate measurement of body composition and daily energy expenditure. Stable isotopes provide a means of measuring total body water and daily energy expenditure under free-living conditions. While the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for the analysis of 2H (Deuterium) and 18O (Oxygen-18) is well established in the field of human energy metabolism research, numerous questions remain regarding the factors which influence analytical and measurement error using this methodology. This thesis was comprised of four studies with the following emphases. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the analytical and measurement error of the IRMS with regard to sample handling under certain conditions. Study 2 involved the comparison of TEE (Total daily energy expenditure) using two commonly employed equations. Further, saliva and urine samples, collected at different times, were used to determine if clinically significant differences would occur. Study 3 was undertaken to determine the appropriate collection times for TBW estimates and derived body composition values. Finally, Study 4, a single case study to investigate if TEE measures are affected when the human condition changes due to altered exercise and water intake. The aim of Study 1 was to validate laboratory approaches to measure isotopic enrichment to ensure accurate (to international standards), precise (reproducibility of three replicate samples) and linear (isotope ratio was constant over the expected concentration range) results. This established the machine variability for the IRMS equipment in use at Queensland University for both TBW and TEE. Using either 0.4mL or 0.5mL sample volumes for both oxygen-18 and deuterium were statistically acceptable (p>0.05) and showed a within analytical variance of 5.8 Delta VSOW units for deuterium, 0.41 Delta VSOW units for oxygen-18. This variance was used as “within analytical noise” to determine sample deviations. It was also found that there was no influence of equilibration time on oxygen-18 or deuterium values when comparing the minimum (oxygen-18: 24hr; deuterium: 3 days) and maximum (oxygen-18: and deuterium: 14 days) equilibration times. With regard to preparation using the vacuum line, any order of preparation is suitable as the TEE values fall within 8% of each other regardless of preparation order. An 8% variation is acceptable for the TEE values due to biological and technical errors (Schoeller, 1988). However, for the automated line, deuterium must be assessed first followed by oxygen-18 as the automated machine line does not evacuate tubes but merely refills them with an injection of gas for a predetermined time. Any fractionation (which may occur for both isotopes), would cause a slight elevation in the values and hence a lower TEE. The purpose of the second and third study was to investigate the use of IRMS to measure the TEE and TBW of and to validate the current IRMS practices in use with regard to sample collection times of urine and saliva, the use of two TEE equations from different research centers and the body composition values derived from these TEE and TBW values. Following the collection of a fasting baseline urine and saliva sample, 10 people (8 women, 2 men) were dosed with a doubly labeled water does comprised of 1.25g 10% oxygen-18 and 0.1 g 100% deuterium/kg body weight. The samples were collected hourly for 12 hrs on the first day and then morning, midday, and evening samples were collected for the next 14 days. The samples were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. For the TBW, time to equilibration was determined using three commonly employed data analysis approaches. Isotopic equilibration was reached in 90% of the sample by hour 6, and in 100% of the sample by hour 7. With regard to the TBW estimations, the optimal time for urine collection was found to be between hours 4 and 10 as to where there was no significant difference between values. In contrast, statistically significant differences in TBW estimations were found between hours 1-3 and from 11-12 when compared with hours 4-10. Most of the individuals in this study were in equilibrium after 7 hours. The TEE equations of Prof Dale Scholler (Chicago, USA, IAEA) and Prof K.Westerterp were compared with that of Prof. Andrew Coward (Dunn Nutrition Centre). When comparing values derived from samples collected in the morning and evening there was no effect of time or equation on resulting TEE values. The fourth study was a pilot study (n=1) to test the variability in TEE as a result of manipulations in fluid consumption and level of physical activity; the magnitude of change which may be expected in a sedentary adult. Physical activity levels were manipulated by increasing the number of steps per day to mimic the increases that may result when a sedentary individual commences an activity program. The study was comprised of three sub-studies completed on the same individual over a period of 8 months. There were no significant changes in TBW across all studies, even though the elimination rates changed with the supplemented water intake and additional physical activity. The extra activity may not have sufficiently strenuous enough and the water intake high enough to cause a significant change in the TBW and hence the CO2 production and TEE values. The TEE values measured show good agreement based on the estimated values calculated on an RMR of 1455 kcal/day, a DIT of 10% of TEE and activity based on measured steps. The covariance values tracked when plotting the residuals were found to be representative of “well-behaved” data and are indicative of the analytical accuracy. The ratio and product plots were found to reflect the water turnover and CO2 production and thus could, with further investigation, be employed to identify the changes in physical activity.

An avidin-biotin microELISA for rapid measurement of total and allergen-specific human IgE

his paper describes an improved microtiter solid-phase enzyme immunoassay for the determination of total and allergen-specific human IgE. This assay technique is unique in its use of the avidin-biotin interaction to increase sensitivity. The avidin-biotin microtiter enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (AB-microELISA) was performed in polyvinyl chloride microtiter plates using biotinylated anti-IgE and horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-avidin conjugate. This AB-microELISA technique enabled the quantitation of human serum IgE in the range of 0.1–5 ng/ml (10–500 pg/test) in less than 3 h. Total serum IgE, whether measured by the AB-microELISA or the paper radioimmunosorbant test (PRIST) was similar (correlation coefficient, r = 0.92). Further, the presence or absence of positive skin tests to 7 specific allergens determined in serum donors generally agreed with the presence or absence of allergen-specific IgE in their sera as measured by the AB-microELISA. The quantity of short ragweed allergen-specific IgE as determined by the AB-microELISA agreed with values obtained by the radioimmunosorbant test (RAST) (correlation coefficient, r = 0.89). No significant interference by ragweed-specific IgG (blocking antibody) was observed in the quantitation of allergen-specific IgE. The AB-microELISA is not only rapid and inexpensive, but also more sensitive than other published ELISA procedures and comparable to solid-phase radioimmunoassays in the quantitation of total and allergen-specific IgE.

Uncertainty in length measurements of live coral trout: implications for compliance and enforcement of minimum legal size limits.

Report on evidence of shrinkage of live coral trout during professional fishing operations on the Great Barrier Reef in 2000. Excel data includes the following fields: Column A. Fish (fish number from 1 -24) Column B. Bin (1-8, container the fish was held in during the experiment) Column C. Measure (1-7, number of the measurement of each fish) Column D. Observer (1 or 2, making the measurement) Column E. Time 2 Column F. Time (time of the day the measurement was made) Column G. FL (Fork Length) Column H. TL (Total Length) Column I. Difference (difference in length between measures) Column J. Order Column K. Temperature (surface water temp under the boat)

Damage assessment of composite plate structures with material and measurement uncertainty

Composite materials are very useful in structural engineering particularly in weight sensitive applications. Two different test models of the same structure made from composite materials can display very different dynamic behavior due to large uncertainties associated with composite material properties. Also, composite structures can suffer from pre-existing imperfections like delaminations, voids or cracks during fabrication. In this paper, we show that modeling and material uncertainties in composite structures can cause considerable problein in damage assessment. A recently developed C-0 shear deformable locking free refined composite plate element is employed in the numerical simulations to alleviate modeling uncertainty. A qualitative estimate of the impact of modeling uncertainty on the damage detection problem is made. A robust Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) with sliding window defuzzifier is used for delamination damage detection in composite plate type structures. The FLS is designed using variations in modal frequencies due to randomness in material properties. Probabilistic analysis is performed using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) on a composite plate finite element model. It is demonstrated that the FLS shows excellent robustness in delamination detection at very high levels of randomness in input data. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST), has been developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei in the charge range 3 ≤ Z ≤ 28 and the energy range between 30 and 800 MeV/nuc by employing an energy loss -- residual energy technique. Measurements of particle trajectories and energy losses are made using a multiwire proportional counter hodoscope and a stack of CsI(TI) crystal scintillators, respectively. A detailed analysis has been made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument.

Landau fluctuations set a fundamental limit on the attainable mass resolution, which for this instrument ranges between ~.07 AMU for z~3 and ~.2 AMU for z~2b. Contributions to the mass resolution due to uncertainties in measuring the path-length and energy losses of the detected particles are shown to degrade the overall mass resolution to between ~.1 AMU (z~3) and ~.3 AMU (z~2b).

A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, is developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. This purely secondary isotope is used as a tracer of secondary production during propagation. This technique is illustrated for the isotopes of the elements O, Ne, S, Ar and Ca.

The uncertainties in the derived source ratios due to errors in fragmentation and total inelastic cross sections, in observed spectral shapes, and in measured abundances are evaluated. It is shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances.

These results are applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.