Preparing Tomorrow's Transportation Workforce: A Midwest Summit, 2010

regional transportation workforce development summits held across the United States in 2009 and 2010 as part of a coordinated initiative to ultimately develop a national strategy to address future transportation workforce issues. The initiative is being led by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA). This particular summit was hosted by Iowa State University’s Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) and Institute for Transportation (InTrans). The purpose of the Midwest summit was to assess the educational and training needs of the future transportation workforce and identify strategies to address those needs across various career paths. It addressed a broad spectrum of topics including strategies to attract women and under-represented minority groups, pre-college opportunities and strategies, post-secondary education, post-college continuing education, professional licensure, and specific industry perspectives. The goals of the summit were (1) to gain an improved understanding of the transportation workforce needs of Iowa and the surrounding states and (2) to identify best practices in addressing the workforce development needs. This event had two tracks: one focused on pre-college education and the other focused primarily on college education and practitioners. Attendees provided a good cross-section of the larger transportation industry. From what was learned at the summit, Iowa State University, like other regional hosts, can develop a “profile of needs” for Iowa including specific job categories over specific time horizons. The summit was also successful in identifying best practices in addressing the workforce needs that can be utilized by us and others as potential tools or in a “national-level list of attributes.” Each regional summit has provided some guidance in developing statewide profiles. The collection of best practices or tools from all the regional summits can be shared and applied to address state (or regional) needs profiles to attract, develop, and retain an effective workforce.

Innovation Benchmark Study: Analysis of Innovation Processes in Finnish Companies

Liikevaihdon orgaaninen kasvu on ensisijainen tekijä ja haaste yritysjohdolle yrityksen omistaja-arvon kasvattamiseksi. Tutkimus tarkastelee suosivatko suomalaisyritykset pääasiallisesti olemassa olevaa liiketoimintaa palvelevia innovaatioita vai tukevatko nykyhetken toimintatavat myös uusia kasvua kiihdyttäviä radikaaleja innovaatioita. Lisäksi työ kartoitti suomalaisyritysten innovaatioprosessien kehitysalueita käyttäen itsearviointitutkimusta.Tulokset johtivat kolmeen johtopäätökseen. Tutkimus osoitti, että vastaajayritykset ovat keskittyneet innovaatiotoiminnassaan vahvasti ydinliiketoimintaansa, jättäen potentiaaliset kasvumahdollisuudet huomioimatta. Yritykset tavoittelevat maksimaalisia tuottoja keskittymällä tuotteidensa korkeaan suorituskykyyn. Lyhyen aikavälin epärealistiset tuotto-odotukset sekä projekteille suunnatut arviointikriteerit rajoittavat liiketoimintaa mullistavien radikaalien innovaatioiden kehittymistä organisaatiossa. Toiseksi, tutkimus osoitti, että suuri osa yrityksistä käyttää perinteisen projektien arviointi- ja kehitysprosessin lisäksi vaihtoehtoisia ja huonosti kontrolloitavissa olevia kehitysprosesseja, mikäli projektille annetaan kielteinen rahoituspäätös standardin prosessin sisällä. Kolmanneksi, suomalaisyritysten innovaatioprosesseissa paljastui merkittäviä puutteita mitattavien elementtien suhteen.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Strategic Innovation Management Based on Three Dimensions

This thesis examines innovation development needs of firms in a remote rural region. The perspective of the study is in strategic innovation management and three dimensions of innovation development: innovation environment, value delivery and innovation capability. The framework is studied with a theoretical and methodological approach in the context of the development of a regional innovation system and the defining of innovation development needs. The thesis is based on existing innovation management literature, expanding it by examining the features of the three dimensions. The empirical data of the study comprise 50 purposefully selected firms within the region of Pielinen Karelia located in Eastern Finland. Most of the firms (70%) included in the study represent manufacturing firms, and over 90% are small and medium-sized enterprises. The research data consist of two questionnaires and an interview, which were done during 2011 in the connection of a regional development project. The point of view of the research is in regional development and harnessing the innovation capability of the firms within the region. The principal research approach applies soft systems methodology. The study explores the means to foster the innovativeness of firms from the viewpoints of innovation environment, innovation capability and value delivery. In closer detail, the study examines relations between the innovation capability factors, differences in innovation development needs within the value delivery system, between sectors and between firm size categories. The thesis offers three major contributions. First, the study extends earlier research on strategic innovation management by connecting the frameworks of innovation capability, innovation environment and value delivery process to the defining of innovation development needs at the regional level. The results deepen knowledge especially concerning practice-based innovation, peripheral regions and smaller firms. Second, the empirical work, based on a case study, confirms the existence of a structural connection integrating five factors of innovation capability. Statistical evidence is provided especially for the positive impacts of the improvement of absorption capability, marketing capability and networking capability, which are the main weaknesses of firms according to the study. Third, the research provides a methodological contribution by applying the innovation matrix in the defining of the innovation development needs of firms. The study demonstrates how the matrix improves possibility to target policy instruments and innovation services more efficiently through indicating significant differences between the innovation support needs regarding various time horizons and phases of innovation process.

The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

Freiräume auf Zeit

Zwischennutzungen sind ein Alltagsphänomen, das seit Ende der 1990er Jahre im wissenschaftlichen Kontext und der kommunalen Praxis der Stadt- und Freiraumentwicklung auffallend an Aufmerksamkeit gewinnt. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich dem Phänomen aus der Perspektive der Freiraumentwicklung als kommunaler Aufgabe. Im Zentrum des Interesses steht die Frage, welche aktuelle Bedeutung Zwischennutzungen, verstanden als die vorübergehende Freiraumnutzung brachliegender Baugrundstücke, für freiraumbezogene öffentliche Aufgaben und Handlungsansätze haben bzw. welche Potentiale sie dafür bieten. Vor dem Hintergrund heterogener gesellschaftlicher und räumlicher Gegebenheiten, der Erkenntnis um eine begrenzte hoheitliche Steuerbarkeit der weiteren stadträumlichen Entwicklung und angesichts knapper Haushaltsmittel ist die kommunale Freiraumentwicklung gefordert, sich bezüglich ihrer Kernaufgaben aber auch bezüglich ihrer Rolle bei der Erfüllung dieser Aufgaben neu zu positionieren. Vermehrt werden Forderungen nach einem Abgehen von „allgemeingültigen“ Versorgungsstandards und traditionellen „Produktionsprozessen“ laut. Flexiblere Freiraumangebote sollen Gestaltungsspielräume für eigeninitiatives Handeln und wechselhafte oder neuartige Nutzungen eröffnen. Mit dem Setzen von Prioritäten, einer verstärkten Kundenorientierung und aktivierenden bzw. kooperativen Handlungsansätzen soll der schlechten Haushaltslage begegnet werden. Zwischennutzungen deuten aufgrund ihrer funktionalen, räumlichen und zeitlichen Flexibilität Möglichkeiten an, auf diese Anforderungen einzugehen. Der Blick in die Verwaltungspraxis einzelner Städte zeigt, dass Zwischennutzungen in der kommunalen Freiraumentwicklung in verschiedenen Zusammenhängen gezielt aufgegriffen werden und dabei diverse Bezüge zu diesen aktuellen Anforderungen herstellen lassen. Der Stellenwert, der ihnen beigemessen wird, reicht dabei vom Ausnahmefall bis zum bewährten Ansatz. Mit den Maßnahmen werden häufig akute bzw. kurzfristige Ziele verfolgt, etwa die vorübergehende Schaffung zusätzlicher Spiel- und Aufenthaltsmöglichkeiten oder die Aufwertung brachliegender Flächen durch extensive Gestaltungsmaßnahmen. Die Projekte sind häufig charakterisiert durch intensive Kooperationen mit anderen öffentlichen und mit nicht-öffentlichen Akteuren. Die Einbindung von Zwischennutzungen in das alltägliche Verwaltungshandeln ist allerdings auch mit diversen Schwierigkeiten verbunden, wie erste Institutionalisierungsansätze in manchen Städten zeigen. Die Verknüpfung unterschiedlicher Zeithorizonte im Planungsgeschehen, die Verbindung des temporären Phänomens Zwischennutzung mit dem traditionellerweise auf Dauerhaftigkeit ausgerichteten Aufgabenverständnis der kommunalen Freiraumentwicklung verlangt nach einer Modifizierung bisheriger Positionen und Herangehensweisen. Ein solcher Anpassungsprozess im Verwaltungshandeln lässt sich nur langfristig und schrittweise bewältigen und ist als Teil der – angesichts aktueller Entwicklungen notwendigen – Weiterentwicklung freiraumbezogener Aufgaben und Handlungsansätze zu verstehen. Zwischennutzungen können neben ihren kurzfristig umsetzbaren Funktionen einen Beitrag dazu leisten.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 reanalysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

The consistency of private and public real estate within mixed-asset portfolios

This study considers the consistency of the role of both the private and public real estate markets within a mixed-asset context. While a vast literature has developed that has examined the potential role of both the private and public real estate markets, most studies have largely relied on both single time horizons and single sample periods. This paper builds upon the analysis of Lee and Stevenson (2005) who examined the consistency of REITs in a US capital market portfolio. The current paper extends that by also analyzing the role of the private market. To address the question, the allocation of both the private and traded markets is evaluated over different holding periods varying from 5- to 20-years. In general the results show that optimum mixed-asset portfolios already containing private real estate have little place for public real estate securities, especially in low risk portfolios and for longer investment horizons. Additionally, mixed-asset portfolios with public real estate either see the allocations to REITs diminished or eliminated if private real estate is also considered. The results demonstrate that there is a still a strong case for private real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio on the basis of an increase in risk-adjusted performance, even if the investor is already holding REITs, but that the reverse is not always the case.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

Corporate governance, accountability and mechanisms of accountability: an overview

Purpose – This paper aims to review traditional corporate governance and accountability research, to suggest opportunities for future research in this field. Design/methodology/approach – The first part adopts an analytical frame of reference based on theory, accountability mechanisms, methodology, business sector/context, globalisation and time horizon. The second part of the paper locates the seven papers in the special issue in a framework of analysis showing how each one contributes to the field. The paper presents a frame of reference which may be used as a “roadmap” for researchers to navigate their way through the prior literature and to position their work on the frontiers of corporate governance research. The paper is primarily discursive and conceptual. Findings – The paper encourages broader approaches to corporate governance and accountability research beyond the traditional and primarily quantitative approaches of prior research. Broader theoretical perspectives, methodological approaches, accountability mechanism, sectors/contexts, globalisation, and time horizons are identified. Research limitations/implications – Greater use of qualitative research methods are suggested, which present challenges particularly of access to the “black box” of corporate boardrooms. Originality/value – Drawing on the analytical framework, and the papers in the special issue, the paper identifies opportunities for further research of accountability and corporate governance. Keywords Corporate governance, Management accountability, Research Paper type General review

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Radiative forcing and global warming potentials of 11 halogenated compounds

Radiative forcing values have been calculated for 11 halogenated compounds which are in current use or which have been suggested as possible replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons. Absorption cross-sections measured over a range of atmospheric temperature and pressure conditions as part of a multi-laboratory programme have been used together with a narrow band radiative transfer model. We provide a “best estimate” radiative forcing taking into account the likely vertical profile of the gas in each case. The Global Warming Potential over a variety of time horizons has also been calculated where the lifetime is available. We present the first such information for 1,2-dichloroethane. For chloroform our radiative forcing is 5 times higher than the value used in previous assessments, possibly because these ignored the effect of absorption outside the 800–1200 cm−1 “window”. For several of the other compounds considered here, our forcing is between 10 and 30% lower than previous assessments. The perfluorocarbons have been found to have large global warming potentials, many times that of CFC-11, due to both strong absorption and long lifetimes. The importance of absorption features at wavenumbers below 800 cm−1 and the effect of temperature variations in absorption cross-section on the radiative forcing are also investigated.

A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation carbon dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight

Persistent contrails are an important climate impact of aviation which could potentially be reduced by re-routing aircraft to avoid contrailing; however this generally increases both the flight length and its corresponding CO emissions. Here, we provide a simple framework to assess the trade-off between the climate impact of CO emissions and contrails for a single flight, in terms of the absolute global warming potential and absolute global temperature potential metrics for time horizons of 20, 50 and 100 years. We use the framework to illustrate the maximum extra distance (with no altitude changes) that can be added to a flight and still reduce its overall climate impact. Small aircraft can fly up to four times further to avoid contrailing than large aircraft. The results have a strong dependence on the applied metric and time horizon. Applying a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the contrail radiative forcing and climate efficacy leads to a factor of 20 difference in the maximum extra distance that could be flown to avoid a contrail. The impact of re-routing on other climatically-important aviation emissions could also be considered in this framework.