Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions

There is a large volume of research showing that emotions have relevant effects on decision-making. We contribute to this literature by experimentally investigating the impact of four specific emotional states - joviality, sadness, fear, and anger - on risk attitudes. In order to do so, we fit two models of behavior under risk: the Expected Utility model (EU) and the Rank Dependent Expected Utility model (RDEU), assuming several functional forms of the weighting function. Our results indicate that all emotional states mitigate risk aversion. Furthermore, we show that there are some differences across gender and participants' experience in laboratory experiments.

Work start time and chronotype of indoor and outdoor daytime workers

Introdução e objetivo: A exposição à luz natural tem efeitos relevantes no sistema de temporização biológica. Pode-se supor que essa exposição poderia promover um ajuste melhor entre os ritmos biológicos e os horários de início de trabalho entre trabalhadores diurnos de ambientes externos. O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a matutinidade/vespertinidade e a relação entre o horário de trabalho real e o ideal em trabalhadores diurnos expostos a condições de iluminação distintas. Métodos: O estudo foi conduzido com dois grupos de trabalhadores (n=49) que residiam em uma área rural e tinham condições sociais similares. Um grupo trabalhava em ambiente interno (n=20, idade média 30,8 anos (21-50); desvio padrão=9,8) e o outro grupo trabalhava em ambiente externo (n=29, idade média 30,8 anos (17- 50); desvio padrão=10,0). Os trabalhadores preencheram um questionário de matutinidade/vespertinidade (MEQ). Foi realizada uma ANOVA de um fator com o intuito de comparar os escores do MEQ entre os dois grupos de trabalhadores. Resultados: Como esperado, o Grupo do Ambiente Externo (GAE) apresentou média de escores mais elevada que o Grupo do Ambiente Interno (GAI), o que significa uma tendência à matutinidade (GAE: 58,4±7,9; GAI; 47,4±6,4), com significância estatística (F=26,22; p<0,001). De acordo com os dados relatados em relação aos horários de trabalho, o GAE gostaria de atrasar seu horário de trabalho em 31 minutos, em média, enquanto que o GAI gostaria de atrasar em 96 minutos seu horário de trabalho (F=7,71; p<0,01). Conclusões: Os resultados desse estudo sugerem que a exposição à luz natural pode promover um ajuste melhor aos horários de início de trabalho matutinos

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Infection rate and risk factors associated with infections related to external ventricular drain

To describe incidence rates and risk factors associated with external ventricular drain (EVD)-related infections at a tertiary Brazilian teaching hospital. The patient cohort consisted of all patients at a major teaching hospital in Brazil with an EVD during the period 1 April 2007 to 30 June 2008 (15 months). Patients were followed up for 30 days after catheter removal. According to the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention criteria for meningitis/ventriculitis, all of the central nervous system (CNS) infections that occurred during this period could be considered to be meningitis or ventriculitis related to EVD placement. Infection rates were calculated using different denominators, such as (1) per patient (incidence), (2) per procedure, and (3) per 1,000 catheter-days (drain-associated infection rate). Patient demographic data, medical history of underlying diseases, antibiotic prophylaxis usage, American Society of Anesthesiologists Score classification, duration of surgery and hospitalization, length of time the EVD was in place, and overall mortality were evaluated during the study period. A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with infection. A total of 119 patients, 130 EVD procedures, and 839 catheter-days were evaluated. The incidence of infection was 18.3%, the infection rate was 16.9% per procedure, and the drain-associated infection rate was 22.4 per 1,000 catheter-days; 77% of the infections were caused by Gram-negative micro-organisms. Only 75% of patients received antibiotic prophylaxis. The infection rate increased with length of the hospital stay. The length of time the catheter was in place was the only independent risk factor associated with infection (p = 0.0369). The incidence of EVD-related infections is high in our hospital, Gram-negative micro-organisms were the most frequent causal agents identified and length of time that the catheter was in place contributed to the infection rate.

Prevalence of, and risk factors for Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus infection among blood donors in Brazil: A multi-center serosurvey

Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is endemic in the Amazon and rare in southern regions of Brazil. However, geographical distribution and epidemiological correlates of infection in this large country are still poorly defined. To estimate the seroprevalence of, and risk factors for, KSHV infection in Brazil, a multi-center study was conducted among 3,493 first-time voluntary unpaid blood donors from Salvador, Sao Paulo and Manaus. Antibodies against KSHV were detected using a whole-virus ELISA validated prior to the serosurvey. Antibodies against the latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA) were detected by immuno-fluorescence assay (IFA) among ELISA-positive sera and a random sample of ELISA-negative sera. Overall, seroprevalence of KSHV by whole-virus ELISA was 21.7% (95% confidence interval (Cl): 20-23.4%) in men and 31.7% (95% Cl: 29-34.3%) in women (P<0.0001). KSHV antibodies were detected by IFA-LANA in 3% (95% Cl: 2-4.3%) of 867 ELISA-positive samples and in none of 365 randomly selected ELISA-negative samples. In multivariate analysis, KSHV seroprevalence by whole-virus ELISA was independently associated with female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6, 95% Cl: 1.4-1.9); residence in the Amazon (OR = 1.4, 95% Cl: 1.2-1.8; compared to Salvador); Caucasian ethnicity (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6). KSHV seroprevalence did not significantly increase with age, nor was it associated with self-reported sexual behavior. KSHV seroprevalence is high among Brazilian blood donors, particularly from the Amazon region. This study supports the co-existence of sexual and non-sexual routes of KSHV transmission in this population.

Time- and Fluid-Sensitive Resuscitation for Hemodynamic Support of Children in Septic Shock Barriers to the Implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine/Pediatric Advanced Life Support Guidelines in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit in a Developing World

Objectives: To analyze mortality rates of children with severe sepsis and septic shock in relation to time-sensitive fluid resuscitation and treatments received and to define barriers to the implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine/Pediatric Advanced Life Support guidelines in a pediatric intensive care unit in a developing country. Methods: Retrospective chart review and prospective analysis of septic shock treatment in a pediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Ninety patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted between July 2002 and June 2003 were included in this study. Results: Of the 90 patients, 83% had septic shock and 17% had severe sepsis; 80 patients had preexisting severe chronic diseases. Patients with septic shock who received less than a 20-mL/kg dose of resuscitation fluid in the first hour of treatment had a mortality rate of 73%, whereas patients who received more than a 40-mL/kg dose in the first hour of treatment had a mortality rate of 33% (P < 0.05.) Patients treated less than 30 minutes after diagnosis of severe sepsis and septic shock had a significantly lower mortality rate (40%) than patients treated more than 60 Minutes after diagnosis (P < 0.05). Controlling for the risk of mortality, early fluid resuscitation was associated with a 3-fold reduction in the odds of death (odds ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.85). The most important barriers to achieve adequate severe sepsis and septic shock treatment were lack of adequate vascular access, lack of recognition of early shock, shortage of health care providers, and nonuse of goals and treatment protocols. Conclusions: The mortality rate was higher for children older than years, for those who received less than 40 mL/kg in the first hour, and for those whose treatment was not initiated in the first 30 Minutes after the diagnosis of septic shock. The acknowledgment of existing barriers to a timely fluid administration and the establishment of objectives to overcome these barriers may lead to a more successful implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine guidelines and reduced mortality rates for children with septic shock in the developing world.

Epidemiology and risk factors for osteonecrosis of the jaw in cancer patients

Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ), previously an entity associated with radiation therapy to the head and neck, has been observed in patients treated with bisphosphonates. Patients with metastatic breast cancer and myelomatous bone disease, commonly treated with high-potency nitrogen-containing bisphosphonates for a prolonged period of time, have the greatest risk of ONJ development. The reported frequency of ONJ ranges from 0.6% to 6.2% in breast cancer and from 1.7% to 15% in patients with multiple myeloma. Osteonecrosis of the jaw has also been observed in patients with other cancers such as prostate cancer and in benign bone disorders such as osteoporosis and Paget`s disease in which the incidence is low. Risk factors associated with the development of ONJ include dental extractions, length of bisphosphonate treatment, and the type of bisphosphonate used. In this review, we summarize the reported incidence and risk factors associated with ONJ.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors among patients living with HIV/AIDS in public health service institutions in Brasilia, Federal District

In order to estimate the incidence of and risk factors for developing tuberculosis, the clinical charts of a retrospective cohort of 281 HIV-positive adults, who were notified to the AIDS Program of the Health Department of Brasilia in 1998, were reviewed in 2003. All the patients were treatment-naive regarding antiretroviral therapy at the time of inclusion in the cohort. Twenty-nine patients were identified as having tuberculosis at the start of the study. Thirteen incident tuberculosis cases were identified during the 60 months of follow-up, with an incidence density rate of 1.24/100 person-years. Tuberculosis incidence was highest among patients with baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl who were not using antiretroviral therapy (incidence = 5.47; 95% CI = 2.73 to 10.94). Multivariate analysis showed that baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 5.09; 95% CI = 1.27 to 20.37; p = 0.02) and non-use of antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 12.17; 95% CI = 2.6 to 56.90; p = 0.001) were independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

Preference intensities and risk aversion in school choice: a laboratory experiment

We experimentally investigate in the laboratory two prominent mechanisms that are employed in school choice programs to assign students to public schools. We study how individual behavior is influenced by preference intensities and risk aversion. Our main results show that (a) the Gale-Shapley mechanism is more robust to changes in cardinal preferences than the Boston mechanism independently of whether individuals can submit a complete or only a restricted ranking of the schools and (b) subjects with a higher degree of risk aversion are more likely to play "safer" strategies under the Gale-Shapley but not under the Boston mechanism. Both results have important implications for the efficiency and the stability of the mechanisms.

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: a survey by polymerase chain reaction and serological methods

An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

General and Abdominal Adiposity and Risk of Death in Europe

Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. This study examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A Cox regression analysis was used, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height.

Prevalence and risk factors of hepatitis C virus infection in hemodialysis patients from one center in Recife, Brazil

A hemodialysis population from a dialysis unit in the city of Recife, Northeastern Brazil, was screened to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the associated risk factors. Hemodialysis patients (n = 250) were interviewed and serum samples tested for anti-HCV antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by reverse transcriptase nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-nested-PCR). Out of 250 patients, 21 (8.4%) were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 19 (7.6%) patients were HCV RNA positive. HCV viraemia was present in 90.5% of the anti-HCV positive patients. The predominant genotype was HCV 1a (8/19), followed by 3a (7/19), and 1b (4/19). None of the anti-HCV negative patients were shown to be viraemic by the PCR. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that time spent on hemodialysis, the number of blood transfusions and a blood transfusion before November 1993 were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusions before November 1993 were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. Low prevalence levels were encountered in this center, however prospective studies are necessary to confirm these findings.