Gestão de portfólio de produtos: práticas adotadas por uma empresa de base tecnológica de médio porte localizada na cidade de São Carlos, SP

In the context of the product development process (PDP), portfolio management plays an important role by determing the set of products that a company uses to compete. Due to its characteristics, performing continuous technological forecasting activities for developing and transferring technologies to their products through the PDP, this tends to make portfolio management a complex activity for products at these companies. This paper’s objective was to identify practices for product portfolio management in a medium-sized technology-based firm located in São Carlos, SP. Qualitative research was used and it was operationalized through a case study. Among the main results, it was noted that decisions on product portfolio depend mainly on the perception of senior management and the financial analyzes constitute the main method used for supporting the decision.

A methodology to compute emission projections from road transport (EmiTRANS)

Atmospheric emissions from road transport have increased all around the world during the last decades more rapidly than from other pollution sources. For instance, they contribute to more than 25% of total CO, CO2, NOx, and fine particle emissions in most of the European countries. This situation shows the importance of road transport when complying with emission ceilings and air quality standards applied to these pollutants. This paper presents a modelling system to perform atmospheric emission projections (simultaneously both air quality pollutants and greenhouse gases) from road transport including the development of a tailored software tool (EmiTRANS) as a planning tool. The methodology has been developed with two purposes: 1) to obtain outputs used as inputs to the COPERT4 software to calculate emission projections and 2) to summarize outputs for policy making evaluating the effect of emission abatement measures for a vehicle fleet. This methodology has been applied to the calculation of emission projections in Spain up to 2020 under several scenarios, including a sensitivity analysis useful for a better interpretation and confidence building on the results. This case study demonstrates the EmiTRANS applicability to a country, and points out the need for combining both technical and non-technical measures (such as behavioural changes or demand management) to reduce emissions, indirectly improving air quality and contributing to mitigate climate change.

Speech technology in the year 2001.

This paper introduces the session "Technology in the Year 2001" and is the first of four papers dealing with the future of human-machine communication by voice. In looking to the future it is important to recognize both the difficulties of technological forecasting and the frailties of the technology as it exists today--frailties that are manifestations of our limited scientific understanding of human cognition. The technology to realize truly advanced applications does not yet exist and cannot be supported by our presently incomplete science of speech. To achieve this long-term goal, the authors advocate a fundamental research program using a cybernetic approach substantially different from more conventional synthetic approaches. In a cybernetic approach, feedback control systems will allow a machine to adapt to a linguistically rich environment using reinforcement learning.

Effects of information technology on financial services systems : hearing before the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-eighth Congress, second session, September 12, 1984.

Mode of access: Internet.

Productivity in China's high technology industry:regional heterogeneity and R&D

This paper analyzes the impact of Research and Development (R&D) on the productivity of China's high technology industry. In order to capture important differences in the effect of R&D on output that arise from geographic and socioeconomic differences across three major regions in China, we use a novel semiparametric approach that allows us to model heterogeneities across provinces and time. Using a unique provincial level panel dataset spanning the period 2000–2007, we find that the impact of R&D on output varies substantially in terms of magnitude and significance across different regions. Results show that the eastern region benefits the most from R&D investments, however it benefits the least from technical progress, while the western region benefits the least from R&D investments, but enjoys the highest benefits from technical progress. The central region benefits from R&D investments more than the western region and benefits from technical progress more than the eastern region. Our results suggest that R&D investments would significantly increase output in both the eastern and central regions, however technical progress in the central region may further compound the effects of R&D on output within the region.

Social media in emergency management:Twitter as a tool for communicating risks to the public

One of the main challenges of emergency management lies in communicating risks to the public. On some occasions, risk communicators might seek to increase awareness over emerging risks, while on others the aim might be to avoid escalation of public reactions. Social media accounts offer an opportunity to rapidly distribute critical information and in doing so to mitigate the impact of emergencies by influencing public reactions. This article draws on theories of risk and emergency communication in order to consider the impact of Twitter as a tool for communicating risks to the public. We analyse 10,020 Twitter messages posted by the official accounts of UK local government authorities (councils) in the context of two major emergencies: the heavy snow of December 2010 and the riots of August 2011. Twitter was used in a variety of ways to communicate and manage associated risks including messages to provide official updates, encourage protective behaviour, increase awareness and guide public attention to mitigating actions. We discuss the importance of social media as means of increasing confidence in emergency management institutions.

The responsibility of futurists in strategic foresight - Hungarian examples

The Futures Studies Department at the Corvinus University of Budapest conducted a few strategic foresight projects at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The goals of two projects were to increase the regional competitiveness of two towns in Hungary; whereas, two other projects dealt with the long-term, 15- to 20- year-long, macro-development opportunities of Hungary. They focused on defining social trends that influence the long-termdecision-making environment of the regions and the country. The two types of experience made it possible to enhance strategic foresight by defining the role and responsibility of professional futurists and average, everyday people.

Prospecção tecnológica para geração de energia eólica

The acceleration of technological change and the process of globalization has intensified competition and the need for new products (goods and services), resulting in growing concern for organizations in the development of technological, economic and social advances. This work presents an overview of the development of wind energy-related technologies and design trends. To conduct this research, it is (i) a literature review on technological innovation, technological forecasting methods and fundamentals of wind power; (ii) the analysis of patents, with the current technology landscape studied by means of finding information in patent databases; and (iii) the preparation of the map of technological development and construction of wind turbines of the future trend information from the literature and news from the sector studied. Step (ii) allowed the study of 25 644 patents between the years 2003-2012, in which the US and China lead the ranking of depositors and the American company General Electric and the Japanese Mitsubishi stand as the largest holder of wind technology. Step (iii) analyzed and identified that most of the innovations presented in the technological evolution of wind power are incremental product innovations to market. The proposed future trends shows that the future wind turbines tend to have a horizontal synchronous shaft, which with the highest diameter of 194m and 164m rotor nacelle top, the top having 7,5MW generation. The materials used for the blades are new materials with characteristics of low density and high strength. The towers are trend with hybrid materials, uniting the steel to the concrete. This work tries to cover the existing gap in the gym on the use of technological forecasting techniques for the wind energy industry, through the recognition that utilize the patent analysis, analysis of scientific articles and stories of the area, provide knowledge about the industry and influencing the quality of investment decisions in R & D and hence improves the efficiency and effectiveness of wind power generation

Taking risks in the face of uncertainty:an exploratory analysis of green innovation

The relationship between uncertainty and firms’ risk-taking behaviour has been a focus of investigation since early discussion of the nature of enterprise activity. Here, we focus on how firms’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty and their perceptions of the risks involved impact on their willingness to undertake green innovation. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of UK food companies undertaken in 2008. The results reinforce the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and perceived innovation risk and emphasise the importance of macro-uncertainty in shaping firms’ willingness to undertake green innovation. The perceived (market-related) riskiness of innovation also positively influences the probability of innovating, suggesting either a proactive approach to stimulating market disruption or an opportunistic approach to innovation leadership.

Defining Key Inventors: A Comparison of Fuel Cell and Nanotechnology Industries

This paper defines the notion of key inventors — those whose patenting is simultaneously highly productive and also widely cited. By implication, key inventors should be the leaders in any developing new field and we investigate the validity of the notion through an exploration of two emerging technological fields: fuel cell and nanotechnology. The nature of the two groups is compared to discuss the differences between the technological groups.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

Mobile Communications within the European Union: The Role of Location in the Evolution and Forecasting of the Diffusion Process

In the European Union, the importance of mobile communications was realized early on. The process of mobile communications becoming ubiquitous has taken time, as the innovation of mobile communications diffused into the society. The aim of this study is to find out how the evolution and spatial patterns of the diffusion of mobile communications within the European Union could be taken into account in forecasting the diffusion process. There is relatively lot of research of innovation diffusion on the individual (micro) andthe country (macro) level, if compared to the territorial level. Territorial orspatial diffusion refers either to the intra-country or inter-country diffusionof an innovation. In both settings, the dif- fusion of a technological innovation has gained scarce attention. This study adds knowledge of the diffusion between countries, focusing especially on the role of location in this process. The main findings of the study are the following: The penetration rates of the European Union member countries have become more even in the period of observation, from the year 1981 to 2000. The common digital GSM system seems to have hastened this process. As to the role of location in the diffusion process, neighboring countries have had similar diffusion processes. They can be grouped into three, the Nordic countries, the central and southern European countries, and the remote southern European countries. The neighborhood effect is also domi- nating in thegravity model which is used for modeling the adoption timing of the countries. The subsequent diffusion within a country, measured by the logistic model in Finland, is af- fected positively by its economic situation, and it seems to level off at some 92 %. Considering the launch of future mobile communications systemsusing a common standard should implicate an equal development between the countries. The launching time should be carefully selected as the diffusion is probably delayed in economic downturns. The location of a country, measured by distance, can be used in forecasting the adoption and diffusion. Fi- nally, the result of penetration rates becoming more even implies that in a relatively homoge- nous set of countries, such as the European Union member countries, the estimated final pene- tration of a single country can be used for approximating the penetration of the others. The estimated eventual penetration of Finland, some 92 %, should thus also be the eventual level for all the European Union countries and for the European Union as a whole.

Data uncertainty in real estate forecasting

The rapid expansion of the TMT sector in the late 1990s and more recent growing regulatory and corporate focus on business continuity and security have raised the profile of data centres. Data centres offer a unique blend of occupational, physical and technological characteristics compared to conventional real estate assets. Limited trading and heterogeneity of data centres also causes higher levels of appraisal uncertainty. In practice, the application of conventional discounted cash flow approaches requires information about a wide range of inputs that is difficult to derive from limited market signals or estimate analytically. This paper outlines an approach that uses pricing signals from similar traded cash flows is proposed. Based upon ‘the law of one price’, the method draws upon the premise that two identical future cash flows must have the same value now. Given the difficulties of estimating exit values, an alternative is that the expected cash flows of data centre are analysed over the life cycle of the building, with corporate bond yields used to provide a proxy for the appropriate discount rates for lease income. Since liabilities are quite diverse, a number of proxies are suggested as discount and capitalisation rates including indexed-linked, fixed interest and zero-coupon bonds. Although there are rarely assets that have identical cash flows and some approximation is necessary, the level of appraiser subjectivity is dramatically reduced.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.