A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Phenology of a dioecious population of Batrachospermum delicatulum (Batrachospermales, Rhodophyta) in a stream from southeastern Brazil

The seasonal dynamics of a dioecious population of Batrachospermum delicatulum (Skuja) Necchi and Entwisle was evaluated biweekly during the growth period of the macroscopic gametophyte, from late autumn (May) to early spring (October) in a third-order stream from the northeast region of Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil (20°43'S, 49°13'W). The population fluctuated throughout the study period in terms of percentage cover, frequency and chlorophyll content. Percent cover and frequency showed a clear pattern with the lowest values at the initial and final stages of the growth period and the highest in July-August (winter). Gametophyte growth was associated with high illumination and low temperature, which agrees with most observations on Batrachospermales in stream environments. Relatively wide variations in reproductive characteristics were observed during the growth period, which were not correlated with percentage cover, frequency and chlorophyll content. The phenologic pattern observed in this population was characterized by a synchronic development of female/male plant ratio with the number of spermatangia per plant resulting in. (i) a higher proportion of fertilized (carposporophytic) plants associated with more male plants; (ii) higher fertilization rates during the periods with higher production of spermatangia per plant; and (iii) higher production of spermatangia per plant when the population had more male plants. These characteristics were largely associated with water temperature and ion content. In terms of reproductive success, the population studied can be regarded as highly efficient, considering the relatively low proportion of male to female plants and high fertilization rates. These data are consistent with a hypothesis to explain high fertilization rates in dioecious species in lotic habitats consisting of outcrossing among adjacent plants with intermingled male and female branches within an algal cluster. Efficient reproductive strategies have been reported in dioecious, monoecious and even mixed populations of B. delicatulum and can be interpreted as adaptations to successfully colonize streams with different characteristics.

Strategies in identifying individuals in a segregant population of common bean and implications of genotype x environment interaction in the success of selection

The objective of this study was to compare the BLUP selection method with different selection strategies in F-2:4 and assess the efficiency of this method on the early choice of the best common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) lines. Fifty-one F-2:4 progenies were produced from a cross between the CVIII8511 x RP-26 lines. A randomized block design was used with 20 replications and one-plant field plots. Character data on plant architecture and grain yield were obtained and then the sum of the standardized variables was estimated for simultaneous selection of both traits. Analysis was carried out by mixed models (BLUP) and the least squares method to compare different selection strategies, like mass selection, stratified mass selection and between and within progeny selection. The progenies selected by BLUP were assessed in advanced generations, always selecting the greatest and smallest sum of the standardized variables. Analyses by the least squares method and BLUP procedure ranked the progenies in the same way. The coincidence of the individuals identified by BLUP and between and within progeny selection was high and of the greatest magnitude when BLUP was compared with mass selection. Although BLUP is the best estimator of genotypic value, its efficiency in the response to long term selection is not different from any of the other methods, because it is also unable to predict the future effect of the progenies x environments interaction. It was inferred that selection success will always depend on the most accurate possible progeny assessment and using alternatives to reduce the progenies x environments interaction effect.

Value of the SYNTAX score for risk assessment in the all-comers population of the randomized multicenter LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) for major adverse cardiac events in the all-comers population of the LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial. BACKGROUND: The SXscore has been shown to be an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with multivessel disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: The SXscore was prospectively collected in 1,397 of the 1,707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial (patients after surgical revascularization were excluded). Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at 1-year follow-up, according to 1 of 3 SXscore tertiles. RESULTS: The 1,397 patients were divided into tertiles based on the SXscore in the following fashion: SXscore8 and 16 (SXhigh) (n=461). At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major cardiac event-free survival in the highest tertile of SXscore (SXlow=92.2%, SXmid=91.1%, and SXhigh=84.6%; p<0.001). Death occurred in 1.5% of SXlow patients, 2.1% of SXmid patients, and 5.6% of SXhigh patients (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 3.01; p=0.002). The myocardial infarction rate tended to be higher in the SXhigh group. Target vessel revascularization was 11.3% in the SXhigh group compared with 6.3% and 7.8% in the SXlow and SXmid groups, respectively (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.75; p=0.006). Composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target vessel revascularization was 7.8%, 8.9%, and 15.4% in the SXlow, SXmid, and SXhigh groups, respectively (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.81; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore, when applied to an all-comers patient population treated with drug-eluting stents, may allow prospective risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. (LEADERS Trial Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating; NCT00389220).

Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

Visualization of the vesicular acetylcholine transporter in cholinergic nerve terminals and its targeting to a specific population of small synaptic vesicles.

Immunohistochemical visualization of the rat vesicular acetylcholine transporter (VAChT) in cholinergic neurons and nerve terminals has been compared to that for choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), heretofore the most specific marker for cholinergic neurons. VAChT-positive cell bodies were visualized in cerebral cortex, basal forebrain, medial habenula, striatum, brain stem, and spinal cord by using a polyclonal anti-VAChT antiserum. VAChT-immuno-reactive fibers and terminals were also visualized in these regions and in hippocampus, at neuromuscular junctions within skeletal muscle, and in sympathetic and parasympathetic autonomic ganglia and target tissues. Cholinergic nerve terminals contain more VAChT than ChAT immunoreactivity after routine fixation, consistent with a concentration of VAChT within terminal neuronal arborizations in which secretory vesicles are clustered. These include VAChT-positive terminals of the median eminence or the hypothalamus, not observed with ChAT antiserum after routine fixation. Subcellular localization of VAChT in specific organelles in neuronal cells was examined by immunoelectron microscopy in a rat neuronal cell line (PC 12-c4) expressing VAChT as well as the endocrine and neuronal forms of the vesicular monoamine transporters (VMAT1 and VMAT2). VAChT is targeted to small synaptic vesicles, while VMAT1 is found mainly but not exclusively on large dense-core vesicles. VMAT2 is found on large dense-core vesicles but not on the small synaptic vesicles that contain VAChT in PC12-c4 cells, despite the presence of VMAT2 immunoreactivity in central and peripheral nerve terminals known to contain monoamines in small synaptic vesicles. Thus, VAChT and VMAT2 may be specific markers for "cholinergic" and "adrenergic" small synaptic vesicles, with the latter not expressed in nonstimulated neuronally differentiated PC12-c4 cells.

A few autoreactive cells in an autoimmune infiltrate control a vast population of nonspecific cells: a tale of smart bombs and the infantry.

Inflammatory infiltrates in tissue-specific autoimmune disease comprise a collection of T cells with specificity for an antigen in the target organ. These specific cells recruit a population of nonspecific T cells and macrophages. The rare tissue-specific T cells in the infiltrate have the capacity to regulate both the influx and the efflux of cells from the tissue. Administration of an altered peptide ligand for the specific T cell which triggers autoimmunity can lead to the regression of the entire inflammatory ensemble in a few hours. Interleukin 4 is a critical cytokine involved in the regression of the inflammatory infiltrate.

Measurement and management of genotype-environment interaction (GxE) for the improvement of rainfed lowland rice yield in Cambodia

The magnitude and nature of genotype-by-environment interactions (G×E) for grain yield (GY) and days to flower (DTF) in Cambodia were examined using a random population of 34 genotypes taken from the Cambodian rice improvement program. These genotypes were evaluated in multi-environment trials (MET) conducted across three years (2000 to 2002) and eight locations in the rainfed lowlands. The G×E interaction was partitioned into components attributed to genotype-by-location (G×L), genotype-by-year (G×Y) and genotype-by-location-by-year (G×L×Y) interactions. The G×L×Y interaction was the largest component of variance for GY. The G×L interaction was also significant and comparable in size to the genotypic component (G). The G×Y interaction was small and non significant. A major factor contributing to the large G×L×Y interactions for GY was the genotypic variation for DTF in combination with environmental variation for the timing and intensity of drought. Some of the interactions for GY associated with timing of plant development and exposure to drought were repeatable across the environments enabling the identification of three-target populations of environments (TPE) for consideration in the breeding program. Four genotypes were selected for wide adaptation in the rainfed lowlands in Cambodia.

Transpiration efficiency in a segregating population of sunflower: Inheritance, correlation with other traits and association with hybrid grain yield

Plants incorporate isotopes of carbon into their tissue at different rates because of discrimination against 13C relative to 12C during photosynthesis. This difference in discrimination has been negatively correlated with transpiration efficiency (TE) in many C3 species and so, carbon isotope discrimination (Δ) of leaf tissues has been proposed as a potential tool for selecting genotypes with improved performance under water limited conditions. The relationship between Δ and TE in sunflower has been described previously using diverse genotypes, but this relationship has not been investigated with material selected from a segregating population. In this study, the TE of twenty recombinant inbred lines from a population (HAR4 x SA52) segregating for Δ was evaluated in a rainout shelter experiment. A strong negative genetic correlation between TE and Δ was observed (rg = -0.58), confirming previous studies of sunflower with unrelated lines. In addition, TE was strongly correlated to plant height at the final harvest (rg = 0.64) and TDW (rg = 0.58), and moderately correlated to SLW (rg = 0.46) and SPAD (rg = 0.21) but not leaf number (rg = 0.02). Estimates of narrow sense heritability of TE and Δ were very high (0.82 and 0.77, respectively) suggesting that selection for these traits could occur in early generations of segregating populations. Grain yield evaluations under field conditions of hybrids contrasting for Δ showed that low Δ (high TE) hybrids had a yield advantage between 22-35% in dry environments where the yield was less than 2t/ha. While this level of yield advantage may not be realized in commercial breeding programs, computer simulations suggest that 10-15% yield improvements may be possible. Low Δ material selected from the population HAR4 x SA52 has been distributed to private seed companies for further evaluation.

Early post-fledgling survival in a fragmented population of a tropical cooperative breeding passerine

During the last years tropical forest has been a target of intense study especially due to its recent big scale destruction. Although a lot still needs to be explored, we start realizing how negative can the impact of our actions be for the ecosystem. Subsequently, the living community have been developing strategies to overcome this problem avoiding bottlenecks or even extinctions. Cooperative breeding (CB) has been recently pointed out as one of those strategies. CB is a breeding system where more than two individuals raise one brood. In most of the cases, extra individuals are offspring that delay their dispersal and independent breeding what allows them to help their parents raising their siblings in the subsequent breeding season. Such behavior is believed to be due, per example, to the lack of mates or breeding territories (ecological constraints hypothesis), a consequence of habitat fragmentation and/or disturbance. From this point, CB is easily promoted by a higher reproductive success of group vs pairs or single individuals. Accordingly, during this thesis I explore the early post-fledging survival of a cooperative breeding passerine, namely the impact of individual/habitat quality in its survival probability during the dependence period of the chicks. Our study species is the Cabanis’s greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a medium-sized, brownish passerine, classified within the Pycnonotidae family. It is found over part of Central Africa in countries such as Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique and Kenya, inhabiting primary and secondary forests, as well as woodland of various types up to 2700m of altitude. Previous studies have concluded that PC is a facultative cooperative breeder. This study was conducted in Taita Hills (TH) at the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), a chain of mountains running from Southeast Kenya to the South of Tanzania. TH comprises an area of 430 ha and has been suffering intense deforestation reflecting 98% forest reduction over the last 200 years. Nowadays its forest is divided in fragments and our study was based in 5of those fragments. We access the post-fledging survival through radio-telemetry. The juvenile survey was done through the breeding females in which transmitters were placed with a leg-loop technique. Ptilochronology is consider to be the study of feather growth bars and has been used to study the nutritional state of a bird. This technique considers that the feather growth rate is positively proportional to the individual capability of ingesting food and to the food availability. This technique is therefore used to infer for individual/habitat quality. Survival was lowest during the first 5 days post-fledging representing 53.3%. During the next 15 days, risk of predation decreased with only 14.3% more deceased individuals. This represents a total of only 33% survived individuals in the end of the 50 days. Our results showed yet a significant positive relationship between flock size and post-fledging survival as well as between ptilochronology values and post-fledgling survival. In practice, these imply that on this population, as bigger the flock, as greater the post fledging survival and that good habitat quality or good BF quality, will lead to a higher juvenile survival rate. We believe that CB is therefore an adaptive behaviour to the lack of mates/breeding territory originated from the mass forest destruction and disturbance. Such results confirms the critical importance of habitat quality in the post-fledging survival and, for the first time, demonstrates how flock size influences the living probability of the juveniles and therefore how it impacts the (local) population dynamics of this species. In my opinion, future research should be focus in disentangle individual and habitat quality from each other and verify which relationship exist between them. Such study will allow us to understand which factor has a stronger influence in the post-fledging survival and therefore redirect our studies in that direction. In order to confirm the negative impact of human disturbance and forest fragmentation, it would be of major relevance to compare the reproductive strategies and reproductive success of populations living in intact forests and disturbed patches.

Prevalence and risk factors of apical periodontitis in endodontically treated teeth in a selected population of Brazilian adults

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors of apical periodontitis in endodontically treated teeth in a selected population of Brazilian adults. A total of 1,372 periapical radiographs of endodontically treated teeth were analyzed based on the quality of root filling, status of coronal restoration and presence of posts associated with apical periodontitis (AP). Data were analyzed statistically using odds ratio, confidence intervals and chi-square test. The prevalence of AP with adequate endodontic treatment was low (16.5%). This percentage dropped to 12.1% in cases with adequate root filling and adequate coronal restoration. Teeth with adequate endodontic treatment and poor coronal restoration had an AP prevalence of 27.9%. AP increased to 71.7% in teeth with poor endodontic treatment associated with poor coronal restoration. When poor endodontic treatment was combined with adequate coronal restoration, AP prevalence was 61.8%. The prevalence of AP was low when associated with high technical quality of root canal treatment. Poor coronal restoration increased the risk of AP even when endodontic treatment was adequate (OR=2.80; 95%CI=1.87-4.22). The presence of intracanal posts had no influence on AP prevalence.

A cave population of Isbrueckerichthys alipionis (Gosline, 1947) in the Upper Ribeira karst area, southeastern Brazil (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

A cave population of the armored catfish Isbrueckerichthys alipionis is reported from the Santana Cave, in the rio Betari watershed, Upper Ribeira karst area, Iporanga, São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. The cave population was compared to an epigean population of I. alipionis and no significant differences where found in morphology or degree of pigmentation. As the cave population is known for at least 30 years and is apparently isolated from epigean streams, it is classified as troglophilic. The discovery of this troglophilic species in the Santana Cave is an additional strong argument for the conservation of that cave.

The effects of the experimental infection from a focus of transmission of Schistosoma mansoni in a population of Biomphalaria tenagophila (D'Orbigny, 1835) in the region of "Vale do Ribeira de Iguape", Brazil

To observe the effects of the parasitic infection on the biology of B. tenagophila, field and laboratory populations of this mollusk from Itariri, in Vale do Ribeira, Brazil, were experimentally infected. Each mollusk received 10 miracidia of Schistosoma mansoni (SJ lineage) and was observed throughout the parasite's development. The biological variables were compared according to the criteria "group" and "infectious phase". The main damage caused by the parasitic infection manifested itself in reproduction, longevity and lesions on the shell of the mollusks in the patent phase. An infection rate of 58.8% was observed. Microanatomical study of the mollusk's digestive gland and ovotestis revealed the presence of evolving larval forms and cercariae. It was concluded that the effects of the parasitic infection on both populations were moderate, despite the low survival rate of the infected mollusks, the damage did not prevent either reproduction or the elimination of cercariae, which continued for a long time.

Trans fatty acid intake among the population of the city of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the monounsaturated and polyunsaturated trans fatty acid intake among the general population. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2003, on a representative sample of 2,298 male and female subjects, including 803 adolescents (12 to 19 years), 713 adults (20 to 59 years) and 782 elderly people (60 years or over). Food intake was measured using 24-hour recall. Mean trans fatty acid intake was described according to gender and age group. RESULTS: The mean trans fatty acid intake was 5.0 g/day (SE = 0.1), accounting for 2.4% (SE = 0.1) of total energy and 6.8% (SE = 0.1) of total lipids. The adolescents had the highest mean intake levels (7.4 g/day; 2.9% of energy) while the adults and the elderly had similar intake (2.2% of energy for both; 6.4% of lipids and 6.5% of lipids, respectively). The mean trans fatty acid intake among adult and elderly women (approximately 2.5% of energy and 7.0% of lipids) was higher than among men in the same age group. The food item with the highest contribution towards trans fatty acids was margarine, accounting for more than 30% of total intake, followed by filled cookies among adolescents and meat among adults and the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: The trans fatty acid intake is above the level recommended by the World Health Organization. Replacement of the trans fatty acids in manufactured food items may be an effective measure for reducing trans fatty acid intake in Brazil.