A planning model for needs analysis for subacute care

The purpose of this study is to produce a model to be used by state regulating agencies to assess demand for subacute care. In accomplishing this goal, the study refines the definition of subacute care, demonstrates a method for bed need assessment, and measures the effectiveness of this new level of care. This was the largest study of subacute care to date. Research focused on 19 subacute units in 16 states, each of which provides high-intensity rehabilitative and/or restorative care carried out in a high-tech unit. Each of the facilities was based in a nursing home, but utilized separate staff, equipment, and services. Because these facilities are under local control, it was possible to study regional differences in subacute care demand.^ Using this data, a model for predicting demand for subacute care services was created, building on earlier models submitted by John Whitman for the American Hospital Association and Robin E. MacStravic. The Broderick model uses the "bootstrapping" method and takes advantage of high technology: computers and software, databases in business and government, publicly available databases from providers or commercial vendors, professional organizations, and other information sources. Using newly available sources of information, this new model addresses the problems and needs of health care planners as they approach the challenges of the 21st century. ^

A planning model for needs analysis for subacute care

The purpose of this study is to produce a model to be used by state regulating agencies to assess demand for subacute care. In accomplishing this goal, the study refines the definition of subacute care, demonstrates a method for bed need assessment, and measures the effectiveness of this new level of care. This was the largest study of subacute care to date. Research focused on 19 subacute units in 16 states, each of which provides high-intensity rehabilitative and/or restorative care carried out in a high-tech unit. Each of the facilities was based in a nursing home, but utilized separate staff, equipment, and services. Because these facilities are under local control, it was possible to study regional differences in subacute care demand. Using this data, a model for predicting demand for subacute care services was created, building on earlier models submitted by John Whitman for the American Hospital Association and Robin E. MacStravic. The Broderick model uses the "bootstrapping" method and takes advantage of high technology: computers and software, databases in business and government, publicly available databases from providers or commercial vendors, professional organizations, and other information sources. Using newly available sources of information, this new model addresses the problems and needs of health care planners as they approach the challenges of the 21st century.

Exact and heuristic algorithms for the integrated planning of multi-energy systems

The aim of this thesis is to present exact and heuristic algorithms for the integrated planning of multi-energy systems. The idea is to disaggregate the energy system, starting first with its core the Central Energy System, and then to proceed towards the Decentral part. Therefore, a mathematical model for the generation expansion operations to optimize the performance of a Central Energy System system is first proposed. To ensure that the proposed generation operations are compatible with the network, some extensions of the existing network are considered as well. All these decisions are evaluated both from an economic viewpoint and from an environmental perspective, as specific constraints related to greenhouse gases emissions are imposed in the formulation. Then, the thesis presents an optimization model for solar organic Rankine cycle in the context of transactive energy trading. In this study, the impact that this technology can have on the peer-to-peer trading application in renewable based community microgrids is inspected. Here the consumer becomes a prosumer and engages actively in virtual trading with other prosumers at the distribution system level. Moreover, there is an investigation of how different technological parameters of the solar Organic Rankine Cycle may affect the final solution. Finally, the thesis introduces a tactical optimization model for the maintenance operations’ scheduling phase of a Combined Heat and Power plant. Specifically, two types of cleaning operations are considered, i.e., online cleaning and offline cleaning. Furthermore, a piecewise linear representation of the electric efficiency variation curve is included. Given the challenge of solving the tactical management model, a heuristic algorithm is proposed. The heuristic works by solving the daily operational production scheduling problem, based on the final consumer’s demand and on the electricity prices. The aggregate information from the operational problem is used to derive maintenance decisions at a tactical level.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Planification de la récolte et allocation des produits aux usines

L’industrie forestière est un secteur qui, même s’il est en déclin, se trouve au cœur du débat sur la mondialisation et le développement durable. Pour de nombreux pays tels que le Canada, la Suède et le Chili, les objectifs sont de maintenir un secteur florissant sans nuire à l’environnement et en réalisant le caractère fini des ressources. Il devient important d’être compétitif et d’exploiter de manière efficace les territoires forestiers, de la récolte jusqu’à la fabrication des produits aux usines, en passant par le transport, dont les coûts augmentent rapidement. L’objectif de ce mémoire est de développer un modèle de planification tactique/opérationnelle qui permet d’ordonnancer les activités pour une année de récolte de façon à satisfaire les demandes des usines, sans perdre de vue le transport des quantités récoltées et la gestion des inventaires en usine. L’année se divise en 26 périodes de deux semaines. Nous cherchons à obtenir les horaires et l’affectation des équipes de récolte aux blocs de coupe pour une année. Le modèle mathématique développé est un problème linéaire mixte en nombres entiers dont la structure est basée sur chaque étape de la chaine d’approvisionnement forestière. Nous choisissons de le résoudre par une méthode exacte, le branch-and-bound. Nous avons pu évaluer combien la résolution directe de notre problème de planification était difficile pour les instances avec un grand nombre de périodes. Cependant l’approche des horizons roulants s’est avérée fructueuse. Grâce à elle en une journée, il est possible de planifier les activités de récolte des blocs pour l’année entière (26 périodes).

Transport impact of in urban planning: the case of Transmilenio in Bogota

The growth and expansion of cities during the last century can’t be seen without taking into account the important role they have assumed in the transport infrastructure. In Bogota have passed trough streetcar, buses and automóviles was deciding for the city, because all this periods marked a drastic change in growth morphology. This article studies the planning of Mass Transit System –MTS– Transmilenio and its interaction with the urban structure, in light of the current city planning framework. It also specifies the behavior of land use in the construction of the system first phase. One of the most important findings of this study is that there is no articulation between land and transport use system, despite the decisions taken in the ordering model. Similarly, local and intermediate planning exhibits Peak articulation.The existing infrastructure of the MTS reiterates the tendency to concentrate the accessibility in one place: the center has the largest accessibility whereas periphery fails to overcome its limitations of accessibility. While the city continued with this trend the existence of a coordinated planning system for Bogota and the ability to meet expectations of planning model is questionable, however it is something that depends not only on MTS.

Planning and Projects of Secondary Electric Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a methodology to achieve integrated planning and projects for secondary distribution circuits. The planning model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to resolve this problem, a tabu search (TS) algorithm is used, with a neighborhood structure developed to explore the physical characteristics of specific geographies included in the planning and expansion of secondary networks, thus obtaining effective solutions as well as low operating costs and investments. The project stage of secondary circuits consists of calculating the mechanical efforts to determine the support structures of the primary and secondary distribution systems and determining the types of structures that should be used in the system according to topological and electrical parameters of the network and, therefore, accurately assessing the costs involved in the construction and/or reform of secondary systems. A constructive heuristic based on information of the electrical and topological conditions between the medium voltage and low voltage systems is used to connect the primary systems and secondary circuits. The results obtained from planning and design simulations of a real secondary system of electric energy distribution are presented.

Constructive heuristic algorithm in branch-and-bound structure applied to transmission network expansion planning

A constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the transmission system expansion planning problem is proposed with the aim of circumventing some critical problems of classical heuristic algorithms that employ relaxed mathematical models to calculate a sensitivity index that guides the circuit additions. The proposed heuristic algorithm is in a branch-and-bound algorithm structure, which can be used with any planning model, such as Transportation model, DC model, AC model or Hybrid models. Tests of the proposed algorithm are presented on real Brazilian systems.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

Algorithms for network design and routing problems

In this thesis we study three combinatorial optimization problems belonging to the classes of Network Design and Vehicle Routing problems that are strongly linked in the context of the design and management of transportation networks: the Non-Bifurcated Capacitated Network Design Problem (NBP), the Period Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP) and the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (PDPTW). These problems are NP-hard and contain as special cases some well known difficult problems such as the Traveling Salesman Problem and the Steiner Tree Problem. Moreover, they model the core structure of many practical problems arising in logistics and telecommunications. The NBP is the problem of designing the optimum network to satisfy a given set of traffic demands. Given a set of nodes, a set of potential links and a set of point-to-point demands called commodities, the objective is to select the links to install and dimension their capacities so that all the demands can be routed between their respective endpoints, and the sum of link fixed costs and commodity routing costs is minimized. The problem is called non- bifurcated because the solution network must allow each demand to follow a single path, i.e., the flow of each demand cannot be splitted. Although this is the case in many real applications, the NBP has received significantly less attention in the literature than other capacitated network design problems that allow bifurcation. We describe an exact algorithm for the NBP that is based on solving by an integer programming solver a formulation of the problem strengthened by simple valid inequalities and four new heuristic algorithms. One of these heuristics is an adaptive memory metaheuristic, based on partial enumeration, that could be applied to a wider class of structured combinatorial optimization problems. In the PVRP a fleet of vehicles of identical capacity must be used to service a set of customers over a planning period of several days. Each customer specifies a service frequency, a set of allowable day-combinations and a quantity of product that the customer must receive every time he is visited. For example, a customer may require to be visited twice during a 5-day period imposing that these visits take place on Monday-Thursday or Monday-Friday or Tuesday-Friday. The problem consists in simultaneously assigning a day- combination to each customer and in designing the vehicle routes for each day so that each customer is visited the required number of times, the number of routes on each day does not exceed the number of vehicles available, and the total cost of the routes over the period is minimized. We also consider a tactical variant of this problem, called Tactical Planning Vehicle Routing Problem, where customers require to be visited on a specific day of the period but a penalty cost, called service cost, can be paid to postpone the visit to a later day than that required. At our knowledge all the algorithms proposed in the literature for the PVRP are heuristics. In this thesis we present for the first time an exact algorithm for the PVRP that is based on different relaxations of a set partitioning-like formulation. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is tested on a set of instances from the literature and on a new set of instances. Finally, the PDPTW is to service a set of transportation requests using a fleet of identical vehicles of limited capacity located at a central depot. Each request specifies a pickup location and a delivery location and requires that a given quantity of load is transported from the pickup location to the delivery location. Moreover, each location can be visited only within an associated time window. Each vehicle can perform at most one route and the problem is to satisfy all the requests using the available vehicles so that each request is serviced by a single vehicle, the load on each vehicle does not exceed the capacity, and all locations are visited according to their time window. We formulate the PDPTW as a set partitioning-like problem with additional cuts and we propose an exact algorithm based on different relaxations of the mathematical formulation and a branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm. The new algorithm is tested on two classes of problems from the literature and compared with a recent branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm from the literature.

On Transport Service Selection in Intermodal Rail/Road Distribution Networks

Intermodal rail/road freight transport constitutes an alternative to long-haul road transport for the distribution of large volumes of goods. The paper introduces the intermodal transportation problem for the tactical planning of mode and service selection. In rail mode, shippers either book train capacity on a per-unit basis or charter block trains completely. Road mode is used for short-distance haulage to intermodal terminals and for direct shipments to customers. We analyze the competition of road and intermodal transportation with regard to freight consolidation and service cost on a model basis. The approach is applied to a distribution system of an industrial company serving customers in eastern Europe. The case study investigates the impact of transport cost and consolidation on the optimal modal split.

THE APPLICATION OF CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AND SUICIDE MORTALITY AS INDICATORS FOR ALCOHOLISM PLANNING

This study provides a review of the current alcoholism planning process of the Houston-Galveston planning process of the Houston-Galveston Area Council, an agency carrying out planning for a thirteen county region in surrounding Houston, Texas. The four central groups involved in this planning are identified, and the role that each plays and how it effects the planning outcomes is discussed.^ The most substantive outcome of the Houston-Galveston Area Council's alcoholism planning, the Regional Alcoholism/Alcohol Abuse Plan is examined. Many of the shortcomings in the data provided, and the lack of other data necessary for planning are offered.^ A problem oriented planning model is presented as an alternative to the Houston-Galveston Area Council's current service oriented approach to alcoholism planning. Five primary phases of the model, identification of the problem, statement of objectives, selection of alternative programs, implementation, and evaluation, are presented, and an overview of the tasks involved in the application of this model to alcoholism planning is offered.^ A specific aspect of the model, the use of problem status indicators is explored using cirrhosis and suicide mortality data. A review of the literature suggests that based on five criteria, availability, subgroup identification, validity, reliability, and sensitivity, both suicide and cirrhosis are suitable as indicators of the alcohol problem when combined with other indicators.^ Cirrhosis and suicide mortality data are examined for the thirteen county Houston-Galveston Region for the years 1969 through 1976. Data limitations preclude definite conclusions concerning the alcohol problem in the region. Three hypotheses about the nature of the regional alcohol problem are presented. First, there appears to be no linear trend in the number of alcoholics that are at risk of suicide and cirrhosis mortality. Second, the number of alcoholics in the metropolitan areas seems to be greater than the number of rural areas. Third, the number of male alcoholics at risk of cirrhosis and suicide mortality is greater than the number of female alcoholics.^

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Container Terminal Simulation. A case study: port of Valencia.

This paper is concerned with the study of non-Markovian queuing systems in container terminals. The methodology presented has been applied to analyze the ship traffic in the port of Valencia located in the Western Mediterranean. Two container terminals have been studied: the public container terminal of NOATUM and the dedicated container terminal of MSC. This paper contains the results of a simulation model based on queuing theory. The methodology presented is found to be effective in replicating realistic ship traffic operations in port as well as in conducting capacity evaluations. Thus the methodology can be used for capacity planning (long term), tactical planning (medium term) and even for the container terminal design (port enlargement purposes).