Effects of fish density distribution and effort distribution on catchability

The effects of fish density distribution and effort distribution on the overall catchability coefficient are examined. Emphasis is also on how aggregation and effort distribution interact to affect overall catch rate [catch per unit effort (cpue)]. In particular, it is proposed to evaluate three indices, the catchability index, the knowledge parameter, and the aggregation index, to describe the effectiveness of targeting and the effects on overall catchability in the stock area. Analytical expressions are provided so that these indices can easily be calculated. The average of the cpue calculated from small units where fishing is random is a better index for measuring the stock abundance. The overall cpue, the ratio of lumped catch and effort, together with the average cpue, can be used to assess the effectiveness of targeting. The proposed methods are applied to the commercial catch and effort data from the Australian northern prawn fishery. The indices are obtained assuming a power law for the effort distribution as an approximation of targeting during the fishing operation. Targeting increased catchability in some areas by 10%, which may have important implications on management advice.

Effects of added shelter and stocking density on growth of sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus in ponds

Sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus is a species of freshwater goby in demand in Australian markets by consumers of Asian origin. It is related to marble goby Oxyeleotris marmoratus, the most expensive freshwater food fish in Asia, which is cultured throughout southeast Asia in ponds and cages. The performance of sleepy cod in culture conditions was investigated to assess the viability of farming them in northern Australia. Sleepy cod fingerlings (62.8 +/- 0.8 mm total length and 2.56 +/- 0.095 g) were stocked into experimental ponds at 32,857 fish/ha, and grown out for 8 mo. Shelter was provided in each of three replicate ponds and was absent in three control ponds. The provision of shelter in juvenile growout was found to be of no benefit, although fish in ponds provided with shelter weighed slightly more per unit length than fish in ponds without shelter. Cannibalism was not a problem in growout, and survival was close to 100%. After the shelter trial was completed, fish were graded into large and small classes (three replicates of each), and grown out without shelter at the same density for 158 d. Following that, fish were again graded, and the largest 30% retained from growout at a density of 8,857 fish/ha (large, 198 +/-6.44 g) or 10,000 fish/ha (small, 48.9 +/-1.27 g). These were grown out for 188 d. Growth of selected stock at low densities was slower than earlier growth rates, although smaller fish gained weight more rapidly than larger fish. Growth rates were better than the only published data for marble goby. Further investigation into high density culture and different genotypes of sleepy cod needs to be undertaken to determine the viability of pond culture.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Report on the 2001 stock assessment of the River Darwen catchment

The River Darwen is a highly impacted Lancashire river with very little known about its fishery interest above the impassable weir at Salmesbury Bottoms. Below the weir there are populations of coarse fish around the confluence with the River Ribble. To the knowledge of local bailiff staff, prior to 1996 the fish population in the middle and upper River Darwen had never been surveyed by electric fishing. In order to address this lack of knowledge, a survey was undertaken during the summer of 1996 with the aim of evaluating the salmonid and cyprinid fish population in the river. Twenty two sites were surveyed by electric fishing between June 11th and July 11th 1996. Information was gathered on the presence and density of fish populations in the river catchment, and analysed according to the National Fisheries Classification Scheme in order to determine how these populations compare nationally with sites of similar habitat features. From this report, recommendations were made to improve and develop the fishery potential in relation to water quality and habitat prioritising areas classed as being Ashless. It was recommended that juvenile coarse fish should be stocked in the Houghton Bottoms area. This area has excellent fishery habitat and was found to contain a minor coarse fish population. Water quality in this stretch of river was thought to be good enough to establish a major coarse fish population. Fish were introduced for the first time in 1998 at Houghton Bottoms from the Agency's Leyland Fish Farm. 3000 each of Roach, Chub and Dace were introduced. Further fish introductions occurred in 2000 with the stocking of 1000 Chub, again from the Agency's Leyland Fish Farm in the Lower Darwen and Witton areas of the main river on a trial basis.

Estimating exploitable stock biomass for the Maine green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) fishery using a spatial statistics approach

The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial patterns in green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) density off the coast of Maine, using data from a fishery-independent survey program, to estimate the exploitable biomass of this species. The dependence of sea urchin variables on the environment, the lack of stationarity, and the presence of discontinuities in the study area made intrinsic geostatistics inappropriate for the study; therefore, we used triangulated irregular networks (TINs) to characterize the large-scale patterns in sea urchin density. The resulting density surfaces were modified to include only areas of the appropriate substrate type and depth zone, and were used to calculate total biomass. Exploitable biomass was estimated by using two different sea urchin density threshold values, which made different assumptions about the fishing industry. We observed considerable spatial variability on both small and large scales, including large-scale patterns in sea urchin density related to depth and fishing pressure. We conclude that the TIN method provides a reasonable spatial approach for generating biomass estimates for a fishery unsuited to geostatistics, but we suggest further studies into uncertainty estimation and the selection of threshold density values.

Recruitment and spawning-stock biomass distribution of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) in Chesapeake Bay

Recruitment of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) in Chesapeake is related to variability in hydrological conditions and to abundance and spatial distribution of spawning stock biomass (SSB). Midwater-trawl surveys conducted for six years, over the entire 320-km length of the bay, provided information on anchovy SSB, annual spatial patterns of recruitment, and their relationships to variability in the estuarine environment. SSB of anchovy varied sixfold in 1995–2000; it alone explained little variability in young-of-the-year (YOY) recruitment level in October, which varied ninefold. Recruitments were low in 1995 and 1996 (47 and 31 Z 109) but higher in 1997–2000 (100 to 265 Z 109). During the recruitment process the YOY population migrated upbay before a subsequent fall-winter downbay migration. The extent of the downbay migration by maturing recruits was greatest in years of high freshwater input to the bay. Mean dissolved oxygen (DO) was more important than freshwater input in controlling distribution of SSB and shifts in SSB location between April– May (prespawning) and June–August (spawning) periods. Recruitments of bay anchovy were higher when mean DO was lowest in the downbay region during the spawning season. It is hypothesized that anchovy recruitment level is inversely related to mean DO concentration because low DO is associated with high plankton productivity in Chesapeake Bay. Additionally, low DO conditions may confine most bay anchovy spawners to the downbay region, where production of larvae and juveniles is enhanced. A modified Ricker stock-recruitment model indicated density-compensatory recruitment with respect to SSB and demonstrated the importance of spring-summer DO levels and spatial distribution of SSB as controllers of bay anchovy recruitment.

Coupling ecology and economy: modeling optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) stock enhancement

Increasing interest in the use of stock enhancement as a management tool necessitates a better understanding of the relative costs and benefits of alternative release strategies. We present a relatively simple model coupling ecology and economic costs to make inferences about optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), a subject of stock enhancement interest in North Carolina. The model, parameterized from mark-recapture experiments, predicts optimal release scenarios from both survival and economic standpoints for varyious dates-of-release, sizes-at-release, and numbers of fish released. Although most stock enhancement efforts involve the release of relatively small fish, the model suggests that optimal results (maximum survival and minimum costs) will be obtained when relatively large fish (75–80 mm total length) are released early in the nursery season (April). We investigated the sensitivity of model predictions to violations of the assumption of density-independent mortality by including density-mortality relationships based on weak and strong type-2 and type-3 predator functional responses (resulting in depensatory mortality at elevated densities). Depending on postrelease density, density-mortality relationships included in the model considerably affect predicted postrelease survival and economic costs associated with enhancement efforts, but do not alter the release scenario (i.e. combination of release variables) that produces optimal results. Predicted (from model output) declines in flounder over time most closely match declines observed in replicate field sites when mortality in the model is density-independent or governed by a weak type-3 functional response. The model provides an example of a relatively easy-to-develop predictive tool with which to make inferences about the ecological and economic potential of stock enhancement of summer flounder and provides a template for model creation for additional species that are subjects of stock enhancement interest, but for which limited empirical data exist.

Effects of density-dependence and sea surface temperature on interannual variation in length-at-age of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Kuroshio-Oyashio area during 1970–1997

Annual mean fork length (FL) of the Pacific stock of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) was examined for the period of 1970–97. Fork length at age 0 (6 months old) was negatively correlated with year-class strength which fluctuated between 0.2 and 14 billion in number for age-0 fish. Total stock biomass was correlated with FL at age but was not a significant factor. Sea surface temperature (SST) between 38–40°N and 141–143°E during April–June was also negatively correlated with FL at age 0. A modified von Bertalanffy growth model that incorporated the effects of population density and SST on growth was well fitted to the observed FL at ages. The relative FL at age 0 for any given year class was maintained throughout the life span. The variability in size at age in the Pacific stock of chub mackerel is largely attributable to growth during the first six months after hatching.

Depth gradients of benthic standing stock and diversity on the continental margin at a high-latitude ice-free site (off Spitsbergen 79 degrees N)

High-latitude seas are mostly covered by multi-year ice, which impacts processes of primary production and sedimentation of organic matter. Because of the warming effect of West Spitsbergen Current (WSC), the waters off West Spitsbergen have only winter ice cover. That is uncommon for such a high latitude and enables to separate effects of multiyear-ice cover from the latitudinal patterns. Macrofauna was sampled off Kongsfjord (79°N) along the depth gradient from 300 to 3000 m. The density, biomass and diversity at shallow sites situated in a canyon were very variable. Biomass was negatively correlated with depth (R=-0.86R=-0.86, p<0.001), and ranged from 61 g ww m−2 (212 m) to 1 g ww m−2 (2025 m). The biomasses were much higher than in the multiyear-ice covered High Arctic at similar depths, while resembling those from temperate and tropical localities. Species richness (expressed by number of species per sample and species–area accumulation curves) decreased with depth. There was no clear depth-related pattern in diversity measures: Hurbert rarefaction, Shannon–Wiener or Pielou. The classic increase of species richness and diversity with depth was not observed. Species richness and diversity of deep-sea macrofauna were much lower in our study than in comparable studies of temperate North Atlantic localities. That is related to geographic isolation of Greenland–Icelandic–Norwegian (GIN) seas from the Atlantic pool of species.

Recruitment of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus in relation to density dependence and zooplankton composition

Recent recruitment failure of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus, a key prey fish in the North Sea, followed by several years of low spawning stock biomass, prompted us to investigate factors influencing the recruitment of this species. We tested 2 hypotheses that relate to ecological mechanisms of recruitment regulation in lesser sandeel: (1) a positive spawning stock–recruitment relationship is decoupled in years associated with high abundances of age-1 sandeels and (2) the survival success of early larvae depends specifically on the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus and not C. helgolandicus. The findings of the present study supported both hypotheses and resulted in a multiple linear recruitment model with pronounced predictive capabilities. The model includes interactions between age-1 abundance and spawning stock biomass, plus the effect of C. finmarchicus abundance, and it explained around 65% of the inter-annual variation in recruitment in contrast to only 12% by a traditional Ricker curve. We argue that early egg production in C. finmarchicus supports the survival of larvae, and that climate-generated shifts in the Calanus species composition lead to a mismatch in timing between food availability and the early life history of lesser sandeels.

Stock-recruitment relations controlled by feeding interactions alone

Stock-recruitment (S-R) relationships are the centrepiece of fisheries management aimed at achieving maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Here we consider the possibility that the density dependence evident in S-R relations is controlled by feeding interactions alone. We simulate a food-web model with dynamic representations of intra- and interspecific size structure and a linear relation between food intake and hatchling production of adults. Population sizes of individual stocks are modified by imposing additional mortality. The predominant functional forms and the steepness of resulting S-R relationships agree well with observations. We conclude that recruitment is plausibly regulated by feeding interactions alone.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.

(Table 1) Population density and biomass of the foraminifer Rupertina, and grain size of cores from the Norwegian continental slope

Rupertina stabilis occupies a depth restricted biotope of suspension feeding animals situated at the Norwegian continental margin. It extends from the Voring plateau northwards for at least 200 - 300 km, in depths between 600 and 800 m. This slope position is known for relatively strong bottom currents and shifting watermass boundaries. - The species is attached to hard substrates, mainly stones or hydroid stalks and obviously prefers an elevated position. It is building a permanent cyst of sponge spicules and debris at the apertural region. The spicules are used to support a pseudopodial network similar to that described from Halyphysema (LIPPS 1983). It is believed to serve as a filter apparatus. - A review of known occurences in the Atlantic is given, suggesting a temperature adaption of the species ranging from 0°C to a maximum of 8°C. Specimens were successfully cultured for about 2-3 weeks.