Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited. value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those. used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three. nonlinear alternatives that were ball of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested,, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

The stability of a two-dimensional vorticity filament under uniform strain

The quantitative effects of uniform strain and background rotation on the stability of a strip of constant vorticity (a simple shear layer) are examined. The thickness of the strip decreases in time under the strain, so it is necessary to formulate the linear stability analysis for a time-dependent basic flow. The results show that even a strain rate γ (scaled with the vorticity of the strip) as small as 0.25 suppresses the conventional Rayleigh shear instability mechanism, in the sense that the r.m.s. wave steepness cannot amplify by more than a certain factor, and must eventually decay. For γ < 0.25 the amplification factor increases as γ decreases; however, it is only 3 when γ e 0.065. Numerical simulations confirm the predictions of linear theory at small steepness and predict a threshold value necessary for the formation of coherent vortices. The results help to explain the impression from numerous simulations of two-dimensional turbulence reported in the literature that filaments of vorticity infrequently roll up into vortices. The stabilization effect may be expected to extend to two- and three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic flows.

Non-ergodicity of inviscid two-dimensional flow on a beta-plane and on the surface of a rotating sphere

It is shown that, for a sufficiently large value of β, two-dimensional flow on a doubly-periodic beta-plane cannot be ergodic (phase-space filling) on the phase-space surface of constant energy and enstrophy. A corresponding result holds for flow on the surface of a rotating sphere, for a sufficiently rapid rotation rate Ω. This implies that the higher-order, non-quadratic invariants are exerting a significant influence on the statistical evolution of the flow. The proof relies on the existence of a finite-amplitude Liapunov stability theorem for zonally symmetric basic states with a non-vanishing absolute-vorticity gradient. When the domain size is much larger than the size of a typical eddy, then a sufficient condition for non-ergodicity is that the wave steepness ε < 1, where ε = 2[surd radical]2Z/βU in the planar case and $\epsilon = 2^{\frac{1}{4}} a^{\frac{5}{2}}Z^{\frac{7}{4}}/\Omega U^{\frac{5}{2}}$ in the spherical case, and where Z is the enstrophy, U the r.m.s. velocity, and a the radius of the sphere. This result may help to explain why numerical simulations of unforced beta-plane turbulence (in which ε decreases in time) seem to evolve into a non-ergodic regime at large scales.

Spatial patterns of gluten protein and polymer distribution in wheat grain

The starchy endosperm is the major storage tissue in the mature wheat grain and exhibits quantitative and qualitative gradients in composition, with the outermost cell layers being rich in protein, mainly gliadins, and the inner cells being low in protein but enriched in high-molecular-weight (HMW) subunits of glutenin. We have used sequential pearling to produce flour fractions enriched in particular cell layers to determine the protein gradients in four different cultivars grown at two nitrogen levels. The results show that the steepness of the protein gradient is determined by both genetic and nutritional factors, with three high-protein breadmaking cultivars being more responsive to the N treatment than a low-protein cultivar suitable for livestock feed. Nitrogen also affected the relative abundances of the three main classes of wheat prolamins: the sulfur-poor ω-gliadins showed the greatest response to nitrogen and increased evenly across the grain; the HMW subunits also increased in response to nitrogen but proportionally more in the outer layers of the starchy endosperm than near the core, while the sulfur-rich prolamins showed the opposite trend.

Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Evaluation of tractive performance of four agricultural tractors in laterally inclined terrain

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o desempenho operacional de quatro tratores agrícolas com tração dianteira auxiliar, em função de seis inclinações laterais, em uma pista lateral de ensaios, pertencente à Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas da Universidade Estadual Paulista, Câmpus de Botucatu. As inclinações laterais foram 0; 5; 10; 15; 20 e 25 graus. em todas estas situações, os tratores operaram com carga predeterminada de tração imposta ao trator tracionado de 40 kN na inclinação de 0 grau. Portanto, foi utilizado um delineamento em blocos casualizados (DBC), sendo seis inclinações e quatro tratores, e com três repetições para cada tratamento. As variáveis analisadas foram patinhagem, força de tração, consumo horário de combustível e velocidade de deslocamento. Concluiu-se que a configuração dos rodados pneumáticos influenciaram no desempenho operacional dos tratores, conforme aumentaram as inclinações laterais do terreno.

Dinâmica Costeira dos Campos petrolíferos Macau/Serra, litoral setentrional do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This thesis describes the general behavior of the northern shore of the State of Rio Grande do Norte relating beach profile morphology with hydrodynamic and sedimentological parameters. The Macau and Serra Oil Field are inserted on this area and are under accelerated coastal erosion. At these oil fields are installed oil wells from PETROBRAS, nowadays located directly in the shoreline, under constant attacks of coastal processes (e.g. waves, tides and currents), which promote an intense morphodynamic variability of this sandy coast. The area was monitored for 24 months in three different stations (P01, P02 and P03). The methodology applied involved current techniques of beach profiles, hydrodynamical processes, remote sensing and geophysics. A synthesis of results obtained through the use of different time scales (monthly, lunar cycle, seasonal, annual) from a coastal dynamics study is presented. The average wind direction corresponded to 77ºAz (NE). The steepness of the berm and of the shoreface, as well as coastal current direction, do not present major changes, with an average of 36º for the steepness of the berm, 15º for the shoreface and 15º for the coastal current direction. This data set allows us to infer that the months of larger coastal erosion were November/2000 and April/2001, because of the largest wave parameter during this time. The months of worse coastal erosion in this area are related with the increasing wavy energy. This in turn, seems to be related to seasonal climatic variations, with the wave energy and tide currents speed increasing during months of minor precipitations (June to January). The months of worse coastal erosion were September and November, when the largest wave parameters and speed currents are measured in the area. Since these months are included on the period of minor precipitations, we related the coastal erosion to seasonal climatic variations. The results obtained during these 24 months of monitoring confirms a situation of accentuated erosion, mainly in Profile 03 (Barra do Corta-Cachorro), where the wave height, period, and coastal current speed are always larger than the values found in Profile 02 (Macau5). Probably these values are more expressive in Profile 03, because it does not present any natural structure of protection against the wave impacts, as the barrier island located at Ponta do Tubarão, or the sand banks in front of Macau5. The transport of the sediments occurs from East to West, and the sand accumulation is more pronounced on Profile 03 intertidal zone, where there are embrionary dunes in dryer months. The tidal currents speed, on the other hand, is more accentuated in the Macau5 area (Profile 02). At Ponta do Tubarão, the tidal currents presented a preferential direction for NE, at times of flood, currents and for NW, at times of ebb current; at Barra do Corta-Cachorro the direction of the currents were predominantly for NW, independent of the tide phase, coinciding with the preferential direction of the longshore current. This currents inversion at Ponta do Tubarão is attributed to the presence of the Ponta do Tubarão island barrier and by the communication channel of the lagoon with the sea. The tide currents are better observed in protected areas, as in the Ponta do Tubarão, when they present inversion in their direction accordingly to the flood and ebb tide. In open areas, as in Barra do Corta-Cachorro, the tide currents are overprinted by the longshore currents. Sediment analysis does not show important modifications in grain size related to seasonality (dry- and rainy seasons). On the foreshore and backshore zones, the sediments vary from fine to medium sand, while in the shoreface they very from fine to very sands. The grains are mostly spheres, varying from sub rounded to sub angled. Quartz is the main component alongside Feldspat and heavy minerals as accessory components. Biogenic content is also present and mainly represented by mollusks fragments. The calculated sediment transport show values around 100 m3/day. The morphodynamic studies indicated that this is a reflexive area from October to April, and intermediate from May to September. The Relative Tide Range-RTR for this area is 4 < RTR < 15, and so classified in the mixed wave-tide group. Having this exposed we can affirm that the more active natural factors in this area are the currents, followed by the tides and the winds. The anthropic factors are exclusively local and punctual (Macau and Serra Oil Field). Taking in account the economic importance of the area, as well as the intensity of coastal processes acting on this shore, it is important a continuity of the monthly environmental monitoring looking for variations on longer-period cycles. These data have been stored on the geo-referenced database of the projects MARPETRO and PETRORISCO (REDE 05), aiming to model the coastal and sea environment, susceptible to oil spills and their derivatives

Influence of microgap location and configuration on the periimplant bone morphology in submerged implants. An experimental study in dogs

Objectives: The vertical location of the implant-abutment connection influences the periimplant bone morphology. It is unknown, however, whether different microgap configurations cause different bone reactions. Therefore, in this study the bone morphologies of two different implant systems were compared.Material and methods: Three months after tooth extraction in eight mongrel dogs, two grit-blasted screw implants with internal Morse taper connection (ANK group) were placed on one side whereas the contralateral side received two oxidized screw implants with external hex (TIU group). One implant on each side was placed level with the bone (equicrestal), the second implant was inserted 1.5mm below bone level (subcrestal). After 3 months the implants were uncovered. Three months after stage two surgery, histometrical evaluations were performed in order to assess the periimplant bone levels (PBL), the first bone-to-implant contact points (BICP), the width (HBD) and the steepness (SLO) of the bone defect.Results: All implants osseointegrated clinically and histologically. Bone overgrowth of the microgap was seen in ANK implants only. No significant differences between ANK and TIU could be detected in neither vertical position for PBL and BICP. However, a tendency in favor of ANK was visible when the implants were placed subcrestally. In the parameters HBD (ANK equicrestal -0.23mm; TIU equicrestal -0.51mm; ANK subcrestal +0.19mm; TIU subcrestal -0.57mm) and SLO (ANK equicrestal 35.36 degrees; TIU equicrestal 63.22 degrees; ANK subcrestal 20.40 degrees; TIU subcrestal 44.43 degrees) more pronounced and significant differences were noted.Conclusions: Within the limits of this study, it is concluded that different microgap designs cause different shapes and sizes of the periimplant ('dish-shaped') bone defect in submerged implants both in equicrestal and subcrestal positions.

Influence of Microgap Location and Configuration on Peri-implant Bone Morphology in Nonsubmerged Implants: An Experimental Study in Dogs

Purpose: It is unknown whether different micro gap configurations can cause different pen-implant bone reactions. Therefore, this study sought to compare the peri-implant bone morphologies of two implant systems with different implant-abutment connections. Materials and Methods: Three months after mandibular tooth extractions in six mongrel dogs, two oxidized screw implants with an external-hex connection were inserted (hexed group) on one side, whereas on the contralateral side two grit-blasted screw implants with an internal Morse-taper connection (Morse group) were placed. on each side, one implant was inserted level with the bone (equicrestal) and the second implant was inserted 1.5 mm below the bony crest (subcrestal). Healing abutments were inserted immediately after implant placement. Three months later, the peri-implant bone levels, the first bone-to-implant contact points, and the width and steepness of the peri-implant bone defects were evaluated histometrically. Results: All 24 implants osseointegrated clinically and histologically. No statistically significant differences between the hexed group and Morse group were detected for either the vertical position for peri-implant bone levels (Morse equicrestal -0.16 mm, hexed equicrestal -0.22 mm, Morse subcrestal 1.50 mm, hexed subcrestal 0.94 mm) or for the first bone-to-implant contact points (Morse equicrestal -2.08 mm, hexed equicrestal -0.98 mm, Morse subcrestal -1.26 mm, hexed subcrestal -0.76 mm). For the parameters width (Morse equicrestal -0.15 mm, hexed equicrestal -0.59 mm, Morse subcrestal 0.28 mm, hexed subcrestal -0.70 mm) and steepness (Morse equicrestal 25.27 degree, hexed equicrestal 57.21 degree, Morse subcrestal 15.35 degree, hexed subcrestal 37.97 degree) of the pen-implant defect, highly significant differences were noted between the Morse group and the hexed group. Conclusion: Within the limits of this experiment, it can be concluded that different microgap configurations influence the size and shape of the peri-implant bone defect in nonsubmerged implants placed both at the crest and subcrestally. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2010;25:540-547

Theory of small aspect ratio waves in deep water

In the limit of small values of the aspect ratio parameter (or wave steepness) which measures the amplitude of a surface wave in units of its wave-length, a model equation is derived from the Euler system in infinite depth (deep water) without potential flow assumption. The resulting equation is shown to sustain periodic waves which on the one side tend to the proper linear limit at small amplitudes, on the other side possess a threshold amplitude where wave crest peaking is achieved. An explicit expression of the crest angle at wave breaking is found in terms of the wave velocity. By numerical simulations, stable soliton-like solutions (experiencing elastic interactions) propagate in a given velocities range on the edge of which they tend to the peakon solution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importantes características de chuva para a conservação do solo e da água no município de São Manuel (SP)

Os modelos matemáticos preditivos da erosão do solo, como a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo (EUPS), são de muita valia no planejamento de uso agrícola da terra. Tal equação, desenvolvida para estimar as perdas médias anuais de solo esperadas em dado local, para determinado sistema de manejo, apresenta como variáveis os fatores erosividade da chuva (R), erodibilidade do solo (K), comprimento do declive (L), grau do declive (S), cobertura e manejo (C) e práticas conservacionistas de suporte (P). Com o objetivo de contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uso do solo local, foi estimado, de forma simplificada, o fator erosividade da chuva (R) da EUPS para o município de São Manuel (SP), para uma série pluviométrica contínua de 49 anos de dados de chuva diária. Além disso, foram também calculados o período de retorno, a freqüência de ocorrência dos índices de erosividade anuais e as quantidades máximas diárias das chuvas necessárias para o dimensionamento mais adequado de canais de terraços agrícolas em nível. O valor calculado do fator R foi de 7.487 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, esperado ocorrer no local, pelo menos, uma vez a cada 2,33 anos, com uma probabilidade de 42,92 %. Observou-se uma concentração de 81,48 % do valor total deste fator no semestre de outubro a março, indicando que, potencialmente, as maiores perdas anuais de solo por erosão são esperadas neste período. Os valores anuais do índice EI30, esperados para os períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos, foram de 7.216, 8.675, 9.641, 10.568, 11.768 e 12.667 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, respectivamente. Com relação às quantidades máximas de chuva diária, para os mesmos períodos de retorno, os valores foram de 73, 98, 115, 131, 151 e 167 mm, respectivamente.

Análise do uso da terra na microbacia do Arroio do Meio - Santa Maria - RS, por Sistema de Informações Geográficas e imagem de satélite

O objetivo desse trabalho foi verificar a viabilidade do uso de um Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG) e a imagem de satélite para a análise do uso atual da terra e localização de áreas onde possam estar ocorrendo conflitos entre capacidade e uso do solo, na microbacia hidrográfica do Arroio do Meio. Foram utilizadas técnicas de geoprocessamento, como álgebra entre mapas, consulta ao banco de dados e reclassificação de imagens. Uma microbacia foi escolhida como objeto deste estudo, por ser considerada por muitos autores como sendo uma das melhores unidades para o planejamento e desenvolvimento sócioeconômico dos habitantes do meio rural. Na microbacia estudada, foram encontrados 555ha cobertos com florestas, compreendendo 24% da área total. As lavouras com área de 1.314ha ocupam a maior parte da microbacia (56%). Os campos de pastagens cobrem 184ha, ou seja, 8% da área total. As áreas alagadas representam 11% da área da microbacia, tendo respectivamente 265ha. Foram detectados ainda, 31ha sombreados (1%) onde não se determinou com exatidão o uso da terra. Nas áreas com declividade superior a 47%, foram detectados 32ha sem cobertura de florestas, perfazendo 1,4% da área da microbacia. em declives superiores a 30%, existem 71ha (3%) sendo usados para a agricultura. A área ocupada com Chernossolos e Neossolos Litólicos, unidade de mapeamento Ciríaco-Charrua em declividade maior que 30% sem cobertura florestal é de 14ha (0,6%). de acordo com a declividade e o solo, as áreas de conflito alcançam 5% da área total, o que demonstra que, na maior parte da microbacia, a terra está sendo usada de acordo com sua capacidade.

Numerical study of circulation on the inner Amazon Shelf

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparação entre dois sistemas de informação geográfica (ARCGIS e GVSIG) na elaboração de um mapa de potencialidade para a silvicultura baseado em elementos do meio físico: a bacia do Paraíba do Sul (Porção Paulista)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)