Robustness in health research : do differences in health measures, techniques, and time frame matter?

Survey-based health research is in a boom phase following an increased amount of health spending in OECD countries and the interest in ageing. A general characteristic of survey-based health research is its diversity. Different studies are based on different health questions in different datasets; they use different statistical techniques; they differ in whether they approach health from an ordinal or cardinal perspective; and they differ in whether they measure short-term or long-term effects. The question in this paper is simple: do these differences matter for the findings? We investigate the effects of life-style choices (drinking, smoking, exercise) and income on six measures of health in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2002: (1) self-assessed general health status, (2) problems with undertaking daily tasks and chores, (3) mental health indicators, (4) BMI, (5) the presence of serious long-term health conditions, and (6) mortality. We compare ordinal models with cardinal models; we compare models with fixed effects to models without fixed-effects; and we compare short-term effects to long-term effects. We find considerable variation in the impact of different determinants on our chosen health outcome measures; we find that it matters whether ordinality or cardinality is assumed; we find substantial differences between estimates that account for fixed effects versus those that do not; and we find that short-run and long-run effects differ greatly. All this implies that health is an even more complicated notion than hitherto thought, defying generalizations from one measure to the others or one methodology to another.

Non-invasive, quantitative analysis of drug mixtures in containers using spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) and multivariate statistical analysis

In this paper, spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is demonstrated for non-invasively investigating the composition of drug mixtures inside an opaque plastic container. The mixtures consisted of three components including a target drug (acetaminophen or phenylephrine hydrochloride) and two diluents (glucose and caffeine). The target drug concentrations ranged from 5% to 100%. After conducting SORS analysis to ascertain the Raman spectra of the concealed mixtures, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the SORS spectra to reveal trends within the data. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to construct models that predicted the concentration of each target drug, in the presence of the other two diluents. The PLS models were able to predict the concentration of acetaminophen in the validation samples with a root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 3.8% and the concentration of phenylephrine hydrochloride with an RMSEP of 4.6%. This work demonstrates the potential of SORS, used in conjunction with multivariate statistical techniques, to perform non-invasive, quantitative analysis on mixtures inside opaque containers. This has applications for pharmaceutical analysis, such as monitoring the degradation of pharmaceutical products on the shelf, in forensic investigations of counterfeit drugs, and for the analysis of illicit drug mixtures which may contain multiple components.

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.

Linking three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis to define groundwater chemistry baseline and identify inter-aquifer connectivity within the Clarence-Moreton Basin, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Clarence-Moreton Basin (CMB) covers approximately 26000 km2 and is the only sub-basin of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) in which there is flow to both the south-west and the east, although flow to the south-west is predominant. In many parts of the basin, including catchments of the Bremer, Logan and upper Condamine Rivers in southeast Queensland, the Walloon Coal Measures are under exploration for Coal Seam Gas (CSG). In order to assess spatial variations in groundwater flow and hydrochemistry at a basin-wide scale, a 3D hydrogeological model of the Queensland section of the CMB has been developed using GoCAD modelling software. Prior to any large-scale CSG extraction, it is essential to understand the existing hydrochemical character of the different aquifers and to establish any potential linkage. To effectively use the large amount of water chemistry data existing for assessment of hydrochemical evolution within the different lithostratigraphic units, multivariate statistical techniques were employed.

Hydrochemical evolution and groundwater flow processes in the Galilee and Eromanga basins, Great Artesian Basin, Australia: A multivariate statistical approach

The Galilee and Eromanga basins are sub-basins of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB). In this study, a multivariate statistical approach (hierarchical cluster analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis) is carried out to identify hydrochemical patterns and assess the processes that control hydrochemical evolution within key aquifers of the GAB in these basins. The results of the hydrochemical assessment are integrated into a 3D geological model (previously developed) to support the analysis of spatial patterns of hydrochemistry, and to identify the hydrochemical and hydrological processes that control hydrochemical variability. In this area of the GAB, the hydrochemical evolution of groundwater is dominated by evapotranspiration near the recharge area resulting in a dominance of the Na–Cl water types. This is shown conceptually using two selected cross-sections which represent discrete groundwater flow paths from the recharge areas to the deeper parts of the basins. With increasing distance from the recharge area, a shift towards a dominance of carbonate (e.g. Na–HCO3 water type) has been observed. The assessment of hydrochemical changes along groundwater flow paths highlights how aquifers are separated in some areas, and how mixing between groundwater from different aquifers occurs elsewhere controlled by geological structures, including between GAB aquifers and coal bearing strata of the Galilee Basin. The results of this study suggest that distinct hydrochemical differences can be observed within the previously defined Early Cretaceous–Jurassic aquifer sequence of the GAB. A revision of the two previously recognised hydrochemical sequences is being proposed, resulting in three hydrochemical sequences based on systematic differences in hydrochemistry, salinity and dominant hydrochemical processes. The integrated approach presented in this study which combines different complementary multivariate statistical techniques with a detailed assessment of the geological framework of these sedimentary basins, can be adopted in other complex multi-aquifer systems to assess hydrochemical evolution and its geological controls.

Preprocess and data analysis techniques for affymetrix DNA microarrays using bioconductor: a case study in Alzheimer disease

DNA microarray, or DNA chip, is a technology that allows us to obtain the expression level of many genes in a single experiment. The fact that numerical expression values can be easily obtained gives us the possibility to use multiple statistical techniques of data analysis. In this project microarray data is obtained from Gene Expression Omnibus, the repository of National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). Then, the noise is removed and data is normalized, also we use hypothesis tests to find the most relevant genes that may be involved in a disease and use machine learning methods like KNN, Random Forest or Kmeans. For performing the analysis we use Bioconductor, packages in R for the analysis of biological data, and we conduct a case study in Alzheimer disease. The complete code can be found in https://github.com/alberto-poncelas/ bioc-alzheimer

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Multivariate Statistical Analysis Applied to an IL6 Signal Transduction Model in Hepatocytes

This paper introduces the application of linear multivariate statistical techniques, including partial least squares (PLS), canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and reduced rank regression (RRR), into the area of Systems Biology. This new approach aims to extract the important proteins embedded in complex signal transduction pathway models.The analysis is performed on a model of intracellular signalling along the janus-associated kinases/signal transducers and transcription factors (JAK/STAT) and mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPK) signal transduction pathways in interleukin-6 (IL6) stimulated hepatocytes, which produce signal transducer and activator of transcription factor 3 (STAT3).A region of redundancy within the MAPK pathway that does not affect the STAT3 transcription was identified using CCA. This is the core finding of this analysis and cannot be obtained by inspecting the model by eye. In addition, RRR was found to isolate terms that do not significantly contribute to changes in protein concentrations, while the application of PLS does not provide such a detailed picture by virtue of its construction.This analysis has a similar objective to conventional model reduction techniques with the advantage of maintaining the meaning of the states prior to and after the reduction process. A significant model reduction is performed, with a marginal loss in accuracy, offering a more concise model while maintaining the main influencing factors on the STAT3 transcription.The findings offer a deeper understanding of the reaction terms involved, confirm the relevance of several proteins to the production of Acute Phase Proteins and complement existing findings regarding cross-talk between the two signalling pathways.

Forecasting Methodologies for Ganoderma Spore Concentration Using Combined Statistical Approaches and Model Evaluations

High concentration levels of Ganoderma spp. spores were observed in Worcester, UK, during 2006–2010.These basidiospores are known to cause sensitization due to the allergen content and their small dimensions. This enables them to penetrate the lower part of the respiratory tract in humans. Establishment of a link between occurring symptoms of sensitization to Ganoderma spp. and other basidiospores is challenging due to lack of information regarding spore concentration in the air. Hence, aerobiological monitoring should be conducted, and if possible extended with the construction of forecast models. Daily mean concentration of allergenic Ganoderma spp. spores in the atmosphere of Worcester was measured using 7-day volumetric spore sampler through five consecutive years. The relationships between the presence of spores in the air and the weather parameters were examined. Forecast models were constructed for Ganoderma spp. spores using advanced statistical techniques, i.e. multivariate regression trees and artificial neural networks. Dew point temperature along with maximumtemperature was the most important factor influencing the presence of spores in the air of Worcester. Based on these two major factors and several others of lesser importance, thresholds for certain levels of fungal spore concentration, i.e. low (0–49 s m−3), moderate(50–99 s m−3), high (100–149 s m−3) and very high (150

Some reflections on acquisition, processing and analysis of statistical data in forest soils

Beyond the classical statistical approaches (determination of basic statistics, regression analysis, ANOVA, etc.) a new set of applications of different statistical techniques has increasingly gained relevance in the analysis, processing and interpretation of data concerning the characteristics of forest soils. This is possible to be seen in some of the recent publications in the context of Multivariate Statistics. These new methods require additional care that is not always included or refered in some approaches. In the particular case of geostatistical data applications it is necessary, besides to geo-reference all the data acquisition, to collect the samples in regular grids and in sufficient quantity so that the variograms can reflect the spatial distribution of soil properties in a representative manner. In the case of the great majority of Multivariate Statistics techniques (Principal Component Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Cluster Analysis, etc.) despite the fact they do not require in most cases the assumption of normal distribution, they however need a proper and rigorous strategy for its utilization. In this work, some reflections about these methodologies and, in particular, about the main constraints that often occur during the information collecting process and about the various linking possibilities of these different techniques will be presented. At the end, illustrations of some particular cases of the applications of these statistical methods will also be presented.

Statistical Analysis of Eco-Toxicologic Data of Mammals from a Polluted Area

Several eco-toxicological studies have shown that insectivorous mammals, due to their feeding habits, easily accumulate high amounts of pollutants in relation to other mammal species. To assess the bio-accumulation levels of toxic metals and their in°uence on essential metals, we quantified the concentration of 19 elements (Ca, K, Fe, B, P, S, Na, Al, Zn, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cu, Mn, Hg, Cd, Mo, Cr and Pb) in bones of 105 greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) from a polluted (Ebro Delta) and a control (Medas Islands) area. Since chemical contents of a bio-indicator are mainly compositional data, conventional statistical analyses currently used in eco-toxicology can give misleading results. Therefore, to improve the interpretation of the data obtained, we used statistical techniques for compositional data analysis to define groups of metals and to evaluate the relationships between them, from an inter-population viewpoint. Hypothesis testing on the adequate balance-coordinates allow us to confirm intuition based hypothesis and some previous results. The main statistical goal was to test equal means of balance-coordinates for the two defined populations. After checking normality, one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney tests were carried out for the inter-group balances

An overview of mixed-effects statistical models for second language researchers

As in any field of scientific inquiry, advancements in the field of second language acquisition (SLA) rely in part on the interpretation and generalizability of study findings using quantitative data analysis and inferential statistics. While statistical techniques such as ANOVA and t-tests are widely used in second language research, this review article provides a review of a class of newer statistical models that have not yet been widely adopted in the field, but have garnered interest in other fields of language research. The class of statistical models called mixed-effects models are introduced, and the potential benefits of these models for the second language researcher are discussed. A simple example of mixed-effects data analysis using the statistical software package R (R Development Core Team, 2011) is provided as an introduction to the use of these statistical techniques, and to exemplify how such analyses can be reported in research articles. It is concluded that mixed-effects models provide the second language researcher with a powerful tool for the analysis of a variety of types of second language acquisition data.

Analysis of the procedures used to evaluate suicide crime scenes in Brazil: A statistical approach to interpret reports

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: Application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.