An Assessment of the Recent Past and Future Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Runoff in the Caucasus Region Using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling and HBV-ETH Hydrological Model

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt and runoff. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C a(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas providing for a strong glacier melt and continuous decline in glacier mass balance. A warming of 4-7 degrees C and 3-5 degrees C is projected for the summer months in 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios respectively, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt can be expected. The expected changes in winter precipitation will not compensate for the summer melt and glacier retreat is likely to continue. However, a projected small increase in both winter and summer precipitation combined with the enhanced glacier melt will result in increased summer runoff in the currently glaciated region of the Caucasus (independent of whether the region is glaciated at the end of the twenty-first century) by more than 50% compared with the baseline period.

Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

A Time-Series Analysis of the H alpha Emission Line in V3885 Sagitarii

Flickering is a phenomenon related to mass accretion observed among many classes of astrophysical objects. In this paper we present a study of flickering emission lines and the continuum of the cataclysmic variable V3885 Sgr. The flickering behavior was first analyzed through statistical analysis and the power spectra of lightcurves. Autocorrelation techniques were then employed to estimate the flickering timescale of flares. A cross-correlation study between the line and its underlying continuum variability is presented. The cross-correlation between the photometric and spectroscopic data is also discussed. Periodograms, calculated using emission-line data, show a behavior that is similar to those obtained from photometric datasets found in the literature, with a plateau at lower frequencies and a power-law at higher frequencies. The power-law index is consistent with stochastic events. The cross-correlation study indicates the presence of a correlation between the variability on Ha and its underlying continuum. Flickering timescales derived from the photometric data were estimated to be 25 min for two lightcurves and 10 min for one of them. The average timescales of the line flickering is 40 min, while for its underlying continuum it drops to 20 min.

A method for Ca, Fe, Ga, Na, Si and Zn determination in alumina by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry after aluminum precipitation

In this present work a method for the determination of Ca, Fe, Ga, Na, Si and Zn in alumina (Al(2)O(3)) by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES) with axial viewing is presented. Preliminary studies revealed intense aluminum spectral interference over the majority of elements and reaction between aluminum and quartz to form aluminosilicate, reducing drastically the lifetime of the torch. To overcome these problems alumina samples (250 mg) were dissolved with 5 mL HCl + 1.5 mLH(2)SO(4) + 1.5 mL H(2)O in a microwave oven. After complete dissolution the volume was completed to 20 mL and aluminum was precipitated as Al(OH)(3) with NH(3) (by bubbling NH(3) into the solution up to a pH similar to 8, for 10 min). The use of internal standards (Fe/Be, Ga/Dy, Zn/In and Na/Sc) was essential to obtain precise and accurate results. The reliability of the proposed method was checked by analysis of alumina certified reference material (Alumina Reduction Grade-699, NIST). The found concentrations (0.037%w(-1) CaO, 0.013% w w(-1) Fe(2)O(3), 0.012%w w(-1)Ga(2)O(3), 0.49% w w(-1) Na(2)O, 0.014% w w(-1) SiO(2) and 0.013% w w(-1) ZnO) presented no statistical differences compared to the certified values at a 95% confidence level. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Control of thermal damage in grinding by digital signal processing of raw acoustic emission

Grinding process is usually the last finishing process of a precision component in the manufacturing industries. This process is utilized for manufacturing parts of different materials, so it demands results such as low roughness, dimensional and shape error control, optimum tool-life, with minimum cost and time. Damages on the parts are very expensive since the previous processes and the grinding itself are useless when the part is damaged in this stage. This work aims to investigate the efficiency of digital signal processing tools of acoustic emission signals in order to detect thermal damages in grinding process. To accomplish such a goal, an experimental work was carried out for 15 runs in a surface grinding machine operating with an aluminum oxide grinding wheel and ABNT 1045 e VC131 steels. The acoustic emission signals were acquired from a fixed sensor placed on the workpiece holder. A high sampling rate acquisition system at 2.5 MHz was used to collect the raw acoustic emission instead of root mean square value usually employed. In each test AE data was analyzed off-line, with results compared to inspection of each workpiece for burn and other metallurgical anomaly. A number of statistical signal processing tools have been evaluated.

In-process grinding monitoring through acoustic emission

This work aims to investigate the efficiency of digital signal processing tools of acoustic emission signals in order to detect thermal damages in grinding processes. To accomplish such a goal, an experimental work was carried out for 15 runs in a surface grinding machine operating with an aluminum oxide grinding wheel and ABNT 1045 Steel as work material. The acoustic emission signals were acquired from a fixed sensor placed on the workpiece holder. A high sampling rate data acquisition system working at 2.5 MHz was used to collect the raw acoustic emission instead of the root mean square value usually employed. Many statistical analyses have shown to be effective to detect burn, such as the root mean square (RMS), correlation of the AE, constant false alarm rate (CFAR), ratio of power (ROP) and mean-value deviance (MVD). However, the CFAR, ROP, Kurtosis and correlation of the AE have been presented more sensitive than the RMS. Copyright © 2006 by ABCM.

Influence of specimen size, tray inclination and air flow rate on the emission of gases from biomass combustion

Experiments of biomass combustion were performed to determine whether specimen size, tray inclination, or combustion air flow rate was the factor that most affects the emission of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. The chosen biomass was Eucalyptus citriodora, a very abundant species in Brazil, utilized in many industrial applications, including combustion for energy generation. Analyses by gas chromatograph and specific online instruments were used to determine the concentrations of the main emitted gases, and the following figures were found for the emission factors: 1400 ± 101 g kg-1 of CO2, 50 ± 13 g kg-1 of CO, and 3.2 ± 0.5 g kg-1 of CH4, which agree with values published in the literature for biomass from the Amazon rainforest. Statistical analysis of the experiments determined that specimen size most significantly affected the emission of gases, especially CO2 and CO. •Statistical analysis to determine effects on emission factors.•CO2, CO, CH4 emission factors determined for combustion of Eucalyptus.•Laboratory results agreed with data for Amazonian biomass combustion in field tests.•Combustion behavior under flaming and smoldering was analyzed. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Alterações de fluxos sanguíneos cerebrais regionais (FSCr) avaliados através de SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography) em pacientes com câncer de mama submetidas à quimioterapia adjuvante

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

Relationship between velopharyngeal closure, hypernasality, nasal air emission and nasal rustle in subjects with repaired cleft palate

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Field-scale spatial correlation between contents of iron oxides and CO2 emission in an Oxisol cultivated with sugarcane

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Moisture content and its influence on the roughness and noise emission during wood machining

Numerous factors influencing the surface quality of wood after machining, among them we highlight the machining parameters and the properties of the wood. In the analysis of the influence of these factors on machining and in determining the quality measurement systems are used to obtain surface characteristics, these systems are divided into methods of contact and non-contact. The method for mechanical contact performed with the aid of the surface roughness tester is the most valued in the measurement of roughness of wood, however, aiming at a greater agility in these measurements, there is a need to seek alternatives for evaluation of surface quality, and one of these options is to use the forms of indirect measurements of this quality, as for example, the use of noise emission during the machining process. With this, the aim was to analyze the influence of the moisture content of the wood, at different levels, on surface quality of the species Pinus elliottii, determined by the method of mechanical probing move and relate this roughness with the sound emission issued for each class of humidity, during machining. The planning of experiments and statistical analyses were performed with the help of Taguchi method. The specimens were conditioned in greenhouses climatizadoras automatics for obtaining three classes of humidity. Machining tests of wooden pieces were performed on a machining center specific for this type of material. The roughness values were measured by a roughness verifier and the noise emission values were measured by for a measurer sound pressure level. Statistically significant differences were observed, the significance level of 10 %, on roughness and noise emission between the three levels of moisture. It was observed that with the increase in the moisture content occurred an increase of roughness and a reduction in noise emission. Monitoring of surface quality through noise level is an interesting alternative to the method of mechanical contact.