960 resultados para spatio-temporal correlation


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The knowledge of the relationship between spatial variability of the surface soil water content (theta) and its mean across a spatial domain (theta(m)) is crucial for hydrological modeling and understanding soil water dynamics at different scales. With the aim to compare the soil moisture dynamics and variability between the two land uses and to explore the relationship between the spatial variability of theta and theta(m), this study analyzed sets of surface theta measurements performed with an impedance soil moisture probe, collected 136 times during a period of one year in two transects covering different land uses, i.e., korshinsk peashrub transect (KPT) and bunge needlegrass transect (BNT), in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that the temporal pattern of theta behaved similarly for the two land uses, with both relative wetter soils during wet period and relative drier soils during dry period recognized in BNT. Soil moisture tended to be temporally stable among different dates, and more stable patterns could be observed for dates with more similar soil water conditions. The magnitude of the spatial variation of theta in KPT was greater than that in ENT. For both land uses, the standard deviation (SD) of theta in general increased as theta(m) increased, a behavior that could be well described with a natural logarithmic function. Convex relationship of CV and theta(m) and the maximum CV for both land uses (43.5% in KPT and 41.0% in BNT) can, therefore, be ascertained. Geostatistical analysis showed that the range in KPT (9.1 m) was shorter than that in BNT (15.1 m). The nugget effects, the structured variability, hence the total variability increased as theta(m) increased. For both land uses, the spatial dependency in general increased with increasing theta(m). 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

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Despite extensive research in the last 150 years, the regional tectonic reconstruction of the Western Alps has remained controversial. The curved orogenic belt consists of several ribbon-like continental terranes (Sesia/Austroalpine, Internal Crystalline Massifs, Brianconnais), which are separated by two or more ophiolitic sutures (Piemonte, Valais, Antrona?, Lanzo/ Canavese?). High-pressure (HP) metamorphism of each terrane occurred during distinct orogenic episodes: at similar to65 Ma in the Sesia/Austroalpine, at similar to45 Ma in the Piemonte zone and at similar to35 Ma in the Internal Crystalline Massifs. It is suggested that these events reflect individual accretionary episodes, which together with kinematic indicators and the speed and direction of plate motions, provide constraints for the discussed reconstruction model. The model involves a prolonged orogenic history that took place during relative convergence of Europe and Adria (here considered as a promontory of the African plate). The first accretionary event involved the Sesia/Austroalpine terrane. Final closure of the Piemonte Ocean occurred during the Eocene (similar to45 Ma) and involved ultra-high-pressure (UHP) metamorphism of the Piemonte oceanic crust. Incorporation of the Brianconnais terrane in the accretionary wedge occurred thereafter, possibly during or after subduction of the Valais Ocean in the late Eocene (45-35 Ma). This subduction was terminated at ca. 35 Ma, when the Internal Crystalline Massifs (i.e. the assumed internal parts of the Brianconnais terrane) were buried into great depths and underwent HP and UHP metamorphism. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

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O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão post-print (versão corrigida pelo editor).

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2008

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Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Naturwissenschaften, Dissertation, 2016

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On the southern Brazilian coast, the penaeid pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez-Farfante, 1967) is intensively captured by both artisanal and industrial fisheries. In the Ibiraquera Lagoon, artisanal fishing of juvenile stocks has declined sharply over the last 15 years. The traditional management methods used by fishermen are no longer sustainable due to conflicts with the demands of tourism and weak environmental and public agencies. The dynamics of the timing of the artificial opening and natural reformation of a sandbar across the mouth of the lagoon are regarded as a central socio-ecological problem. We evaluated the abundance and biomass variation of F. paulensis throughout the year and along a spatial gradient measured from the sandbar into the lagoon. We also explored the influence of opening the sandbar on the shrimp population. Samples were collected monthly from February 2004 to February 2005, using a 27 mm mesh cast net, in four different areas, with three sites being sampled per area. Small numbers of large shrimps were captured in the upper area, while greater biomass and abundance of small shrimps were observed near the sandbar, suggesting the role of the inner area as a refuge for growing. The highest records for biomass and abundance were recorded during warm months, regardless if the lagoon was open or closed by the sandbar. The Ibiraquera Lagoon could be more productive for fishermen if the sandbar opening was coincident to the period of natural post-larvae influx. Furthermore, coastal stocks could be improved by opening the sandbar again during summer in conjunction with fishing quotas.

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Interaural intensity and time differences (IID and ITD) are two binaural auditory cues for localizing sounds in space. This study investigated the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms for processing and integrating IID and ITD cues in humans. Auditory-evoked potentials were recorded, while subjects passively listened to noise bursts lateralized with IID, ITD or both cues simultaneously, as well as a more frequent centrally presented noise. In a separate psychophysical experiment, subjects actively discriminated lateralized from centrally presented stimuli. IID and ITD cues elicited different electric field topographies starting at approximately 75 ms post-stimulus onset, indicative of the engagement of distinct cortical networks. By contrast, no performance differences were observed between IID and ITD cues during the psychophysical experiment. Subjects did, however, respond significantly faster and more accurately when both cues were presented simultaneously. This performance facilitation exceeded predictions from probability summation, suggestive of interactions in neural processing of IID and ITD cues. Supra-additive neural response interactions as well as topographic modulations were indeed observed approximately 200 ms post-stimulus for the comparison of responses to the simultaneous presentation of both cues with the mean of those to separate IID and ITD cues. Source estimations revealed differential processing of IID and ITD cues initially within superior temporal cortices and also at later stages within temporo-parietal and inferior frontal cortices. Differences were principally in terms of hemispheric lateralization. The collective psychophysical and electrophysiological results support the hypothesis that IID and ITD cues are processed by distinct, but interacting, cortical networks that can in turn facilitate auditory localization.