A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Spatial-temporal variation of Paralonchurus brasiliensis (Actinopterygii: Sciaenidae) density in relation to some environmental factors on the inner shelf of south-eastern Brazilian coast

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial-temporal distribution of fire-protected savanna physiognomies in Southeastern Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial-temporal variation of parasites in Cnemidophorus ocellifer (Teiidae) and Tropidurus hispidus and Tropidurus semitaeniatus (Tropiduridae) from Caatinga areas in northeastern Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial-temporal variation of Paralonchurus brasiliensis (Actinopterygii: Sciaenidae) density in relation to some environmental factors on the inner shelf of south-eastern Brazilian coast

The temporal and spatial variation of Paralonchurus brasiliensis density (fish per m(2)) in relation to environmental factors was studied on the coasts of Ubatuba and Caraguatatuba, south-eastern Brazil. The fish were collected by shrimp fishery trawl on a monthly basis from January to December, 2002. Seven depths were previously established and for each one the temperature, salinity, organic matter content and grain size of the sediment (phi) was measured. The seasonal analysis of temperature and salinity indicated the presence of the water masses South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) and Coastal Waters (CW) acting in the study area. A total of 29,808 fish were collected during the study period. The highest densities were registered during the summer and autumn indicating an association with CW. The fish population moved to shallow depths during the intrusion of the cold water mass, SACW. The highest densities were registered in depths where the sediment composition ranged from fine sand to silt-clay. Thus, the temperature and type of the sediment are the main environmental factors which affect the spatial-temporal variation of P. brasiliensis density in south-eastern Brazil.

Spatial-Temporal Variation in Orchid Bee Communities (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Remnants of Arboreal Caatinga in the Chapada Diamantina Region, State of Bahia, Brazil

The spatial and temporal distribution of organisms is a fundamental aspect of biological communities. The present study focused on three remnants of arboreal Caatinga in northeastern Brazil between May, 2009 and April, 2010. A total of 627 euglossine males were captured in traps baited with artificial aromatic compounds. The specimens belonged to 14 species and four genera: Euglossa Latreille, Eulaema Lepeletier, Eufriesea Cockerell, and Exaerete Hoffmannsegg. Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier (41.6), Euglossa carolina Nem,sio (15.3%), Eulaema marcii Nem,sio (13.6%), and Euglossa melanotricha Moure (12.8%) were the most common species sampled. The distribution of collected specimens per fragment was as follows: BraA(0)na (280 ha)-259 individuals belonging to 14 species; Cambui (179 ha)-161 individuals from eight species; and Pindoba (100 ha)-207 individuals represented by seven species. BraA(0)na had the highest diversity (H'aEuro parts per thousand= 1.91) and estimated species richness. The largest fragment was the main source of the observed variation in species richness and abundance, indicating a non-random pattern of spatial distribution. The analysis of environmental factors indicated that seasonal variation in these factors was the principal determinant of species occurrence and abundance.

Spatial-temporal variations in phytoplankton size and colored detrital matter absorption at global and regional scales, as derived from twelve years of SeaWiFS data (1998-2009)

A procedure has been proposed by Ciotti and Bricaud (2006) to retrieve spectral absorption coefficients of phytoplankton and colored detrital matter (CDM) from satellite radiance measurements. This was also the first procedure to estimate a size factor for phytoplankton, based on the shape of the retrieved algal absorption spectrum, and the spectral slope of CDM absorption. Applying this method to the global ocean color data set acquired by SeaWiFS over twelve years (1998-2009), allowed for a comparison of the spatial variations of chlorophyll concentration ([Chl]), algal size factor (S-f), CDM absorption coefficient (a(cdm)) at 443 nm, and spectral slope of CDM absorption (S-cdm). As expected, correlations between the derived parameters were characterized by a large scatter at the global scale. We compared temporal variability of the spatially averaged parameters over the twelve-year period for three oceanic areas of biogeochemical importance: the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea. In all areas, both S-f and a(cdm)(443) showed large seasonal and interannual variations, generally correlated to those of algal biomass. The CDM maxima appeared in some occasions to last longer than those of [Chl]. The spectral slope of CDM absorption showed very large seasonal cycles consistent with photobleaching, challenging the assumption of a constant slope commonly used in bio-optical models. In the Equatorial Pacific, the seasonal cycles of [Chl], S-f, a(cdm)(443) and S-cdm, as well as the relationships between these parameters, were strongly affected by the 1997-98 El Ni o/La Ni a event.

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.

A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation.

Spatial-temporal clustering of companion animal enteric syndrome: detection and investigation through the use of electronic medical records from participating private practices

SUMMARY There is interest in the potential of companion animal surveillance to provide data to improve pet health and to provide early warning of environmental hazards to people. We implemented a companion animal surveillance system in Calgary, Alberta and the surrounding communities. Informatics technologies automatically extracted electronic medical records from participating veterinary practices and identified cases of enteric syndrome in the warehoused records. The data were analysed using time-series analyses and a retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic. We identified a seasonal pattern of reports of occurrences of enteric syndromes in companion animals and four statistically significant clusters of enteric syndrome cases. The cases within each cluster were examined and information about the animals involved (species, age, sex), their vaccination history, possible exposure or risk behaviour history, information about disease severity, and the aetiological diagnosis was collected. We then assessed whether the cases within the cluster were unusual and if they represented an animal or public health threat. There was often insufficient information recorded in the medical record to characterize the clusters by aetiology or exposures. Space-time analysis of companion animal enteric syndrome cases found evidence of clustering. Collection of more epidemiologically relevant data would enhance the utility of practice-based companion animal surveillance.